DFS Picks:
Noah Syndergaard (SP-NYM) - At home Noah Syndergaard is a lock. 7-1 with a 1.82 ERA, I'll take that any day. Splits aside, Syndergaard owns a 9.80 K/9 and a 1.14 WHIP. His 96.9 MPH fastball ranks in the top five amongst all starters and his 77.1% strand rate helps him minimize damage. On Sunday Syndegaard will face the Red Sox, who are an extremely below average team on the road. Away from Fenway the Red Sox have scored 237 runs, which ranks 7th lowest in baseball. This failure is partially due to a team .237 BAA on the road. With the splits in his favor, how couldn't Syndergaard succeed? DraftKings Value Pick $ 10,600
Julio Teheran (SP-ATL) - Julio Teheran has startling splits. He has a 6.32 road ERA, which is complimented by a 2.55 home ERA. The numbers don't lie Teheran is awesome at home. At Turner Field Teheran is 7-1 with a .197 BAA and a 0.53 HR/9. Last season he posted a 2.11 ERA and a .214 BAA at home, so you know this trend is safe to follow. Unfortunately, Teheran is slated to face the MLB's second best offense, the Yankees. For this reason, and this reason only, Teheran is a high-risk high reward player. However, in this instance, the risk is much lower and the reward is somewhat predictable. DraftKings Value Pick $8,000
Ryan Zimmerman (1B-WAS) - Ryan Zimmerman's splits against Marlins starter Brad Hand are pretty ridiculous. In eight at bats Zimmerman has six hits, four doubles, and two talks. He has never struck out against Hand and he even has a stolen base. Zimmerman's DFS value stems not only from his head to head stats, but also from his lefty splits. In 77 at bats versus southpaws, Zimmerman is hitting .273 with a .519 SLG. This may not seem remarkable, but when compared to his .209 AVG and .370 SLG against righties, the true value can be seen. DraftKings Value Pick $ 4,000
Pick Ups:
Javier Baez (2B/SS-CHC) - Javier Baez should be on your waiver wire radar. Right now he's hitting .319 at Triple-A Iowa in 282 at bats. His power is down a little from last season, but so is his K rate. Between Triple-A and the majors, Baez combined for a 37% K rate last season. This year his K rate is 27%. Couple this with an enormous .394 BABIP and the difference in his average from last season is accounted for. At the big league level Baez has a shot to be a star. Even with a reduced home run rate, he's still averaging one home run every 21 at bats. Additionally, he has 18 stolen bases (and only three caught stealing's). Against big league pitching his average will take a hit, but in the revamped Cubs lineup, his offensive production should increase vastly from last season.
J.A. Happ (SP-PIT) - You have to love J.A. Happ if you're a Pirates fan right now. Over his last four starts Happ has given up two runs. During this stretch he has accumulated 18 strikeouts in 23 innings and three wins. If you don't want to pick up Happ it's understandable. He has a .329 BABIP and a 4.10 ERA. However, I would advise you to give him a chance. The Pirates starters have the MLB's 5th best ERA partially due to talent, good coaching, and a pitcher's ballpark. Some would ague that Happ isn't talented, but I would disagree. Not long ago Happ had a 2.93 ERA in 23 starts for the Phillies. His ERA ballooned once he left Philly for Houston and Toronto (both have hitters ballparks). Now that he's in Pittsburgh, Happ's ERA will flourish. He has an incredible core of outfielders to support his 0.69 FB/GB ratio, and has already shown signs of promise.
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Time Frame: Season
