I do not know exactly when or where the term, 'sleeper,' was coined, but it's a word that gets tossed around thousands of times a day every March (for baseball) and August (for football) and then it's mostly forgotten. Or, slept on, I suppose.
Need I remind anyone that 80% of the guys we posit as sleepers never even wake up? They're either the same guy they've always been, they're forgotten or hurt by July, or expectations get so much helium that even a good season is treated as a relative let-down.
This is the month to ask everyone about their favorite sleeper, so today it's time for me to provide some answers.
First, though, a sleeper in my book may not often be a sleeper in your book. I have found that when many are feeling you out for a sleeper, they're mostly looking for the man who can go from mid-range to upper-range at his position. I see things in a different light. My sleepers are rarely break-out guys. They are often players who do not have the ability to become top-five at their position. And, furthermore, they are rather boring players to the vast majority of fantasy hawks.
The guys that are most appealing to me are often those that aren't given credit for what they have actually accomplished. Beyond that, they are often hitters and pitchers who have a solid track record, but an injury in the previous season has smudged their reputation heading into the new campaign.
For the purposes of this column I did choose to omit any players that are currently holding an ADP inside the top 150 according to the numbers found provided by the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC). Therefore, depending on your league size, none of the players listed below are considered draft-able in the first 10 to 15 rounds. On to the big reveal ...
Catcher - Yan Gomes (#11 at C, #175 overall)
I'm rarely (if ever) going to invest in a top-5 backstop. A lack of games played, injury risk, and general in-season wear-down turns me off to those who wear the tools of ignorance. Look at Gomes. A year ago, he was an upper-end catching option, but (not shockingly) he came up with a knee injury that torpedoed most of his marks. He never really found his stroke, but he still provided some power from the right-side with a dozen home runs in just 363 at-bats. Assuming he's mostly healthy, he should get 135-140 starts. If that occurs, I don't see how he falls under 15 homers and 70 RBIs. He's a likely .250-ish hitter so if you combine all these numbers, you're looking at a catcher very near the top-5 at the position. He does need to walk more (13 last year in 363 ABs??), but his offensive skill set is quite good at a very bad position.
First Base - Mitch Moreland (#20 at 1B, #233 overall)
In 150 fewer at-bats, Moreland equaled the 23 home runs popped by his more celebrated teammate, Prince Fielder. He also out-slugged him (.482 to .463). I'm not arguing that Moreland is a better option than Fielder. He's far from it. But, take another look at that number up above! A guy with less than 500 at-bats, pounded out nearly 25 round-trippers, drove in 80+, and even hit a shade under-.280. And his ADP stands behind Mark Teixeira and the totally unknown, Byung-ho Park? Mostly that is because Moreland has been around too long for people to get excited about him. He's also a player who doesn't offer much beyond what he posted last season. But, here's what he does have ... an everyday lineup spot, a good spot in that lineup, plenty of experience, and four seasons with at least 15 homers ... without a single season of 500 ABs. He will be an easy steal if he comes within shouting distance of that number in 2016.
Second Base - Dustin Pedroia (#13 at 2B, #168 overall)
And here we have our first old codger! Guys like Pedroia usually have a slow fade that is followed by a sudden crash. I think the Sox 2nd-baseman still has another year left on the 'slow fade'-front. You can count on that fact of life that he will have some kind of injury this year. Last year it was a hamstring and it really bothered him for about three-fifths of the year. He finally looked sturdy and steady in September, posting a .308 average with a .800-plus OPS. I expect a lot more doubles than homers for the vet and as the Sox's #2-hitter, he should be involved in a ton of big innings for the Boston offense. Saying that Dustin Pedroia is an 'infield back-up' in a 12-team league? Nuts. The only way that happens is if he plays fewer than 120 games and he's been over that number in four of five seasons.
Third Base - Yangervis Solarte (#24 at 3B, #301 overall)
Solarte came up in last week's column on lineup positioning. You might think that since he's back again this week he must be one of my favorites. Not really, but I suppose that will be the cross for me to carry. As I noted in the previous piece, the 3B job is totally his and he's got an outside shot of being in the thick of the upper-end of the Padres' lineup. That's all good and well, but his numbers are also relevant to the discussion. He should not be a starting 3B for fantasy players, but he can be a critical bench grab. He can be plugged in at multiple spots, won't embarrass himself at the dish, and even has shown some lift with his cut (14 homers last year). If you can ever find an infielder outside the top-300 that has a legitimate shot at posting slightly above average marks in 4 of 5 columns, you add him.
Shortstop - Marcus Semien (#12 at SS, #246 overall)
Thank the heavens that we don't have defensive scoring in fantasy baseball. If so, Semien's massive 35 fielding miscues would relegate him to the fantasy dust bin. Of course, we don't have to worry about that with the A's middle infielder. Not only is the team intent on giving him another full season of starting work, but he also started to make strides with the glove as the 2015 season wore on. Over a 63-game end-of-the-year run Semien only committed seven errors. Many are pointing to the addition of tutor, Ron Washington, as a turning point and it's a fair one. As long as the glove continues to handle duties, the 25-year old should more than maintain his bat. Double-digit homers, double-digit steals, a decent average, and the possibility of 80 runs? For those (like me) who aren't interested in paying for the best shortstops on the board, Semien is an absolute target late in the draft. The bat at this position is just too solid for the player to be listed so low among his peers.
Outfield - Wil Myers (#55 at OF, #207 overall), Domingo Santana (#71 at OF, #298 overall)
Two years ago Myers would have never made this column. But, with trade, injury, and scuffling numbers, the former stud is now coming in as a total value. Frankly, my only real concern with Myers is indeed his health. I love that he's going to bat in the two-hole for the Padres. I think that the defensive shift to 1B will be a fairly easy one and will allow him to concentrate on getting his stroke back into form. His average will likely never top .280 (too many swings and misses), but he can absolutely hit 20+ over the wall, score 80+, net a handful of steals, and even drive in 75 or more. That profile rarely exists outside the top 200.
Santana is more of a mystery than Myers. One huge boost for his value is that he should be on the field constantly. The Brewers seem to already be sending the white flag up the pole and that means that a youngster like Santana will be handed plenty of opportunities. Through his minor league career he has shown loads of pop. His 90 homers in less than 400 pro games means that he has a decent chance of lifting 20 out of Miller Park in 2016. You will not get any kind of batting average. In fact, if you add him to your fantasy roster, plan for a .225-ish average with 180+ whiffs (although I will note that this spring has been kind to Santana with more walks drawn than whiffs in his first 20 plate appearances). Even with the all-or-nothing approach, though, if you can scrape up Santiago onto your roster near spot #300, consider it a win.
Starting Pitcher - Mike Fiers (#58 at SP, #216 overall), R.A. Dickey (#101 at SP, #363 overall)
When fantasy prep first begins, the unenlightened player often starts their pitching search on the 'Wins' leaderboard. That is why Fiers is currently so low in ADP rankings. He didn't have 20. He didn't have 15. He didn't even have 10. Fiers (between Milwaukee and Houston) had ... 8! But, that number should not be of any concern to you. Instead, look at the marks that actually help to profile a pitcher. Over two seasons and more than 250 innings, the righty has a 3.25 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and over a K-per-inning with a number sitting at 9.1. Of course if you ever watched him pitch in a game, you would wonder how he does it. His fastball barely cracks 90 and he has been prone to the homer. The key is to understand that you're not drafting him to be a top-3 fantasy starter for your team. He's a strong 5-guy in my book and has a shot to perform like a low-end 3.
Dickey is someone that no one is interested in. We've all been there. His pitching line is as unstable and unpredictable as his fluttering knuckler. He's also over-40, but in all honesty, that doesn't even matter when we're talking about a trick pitcher like Dickey. His start to last season was pitiful (his ERA was over-5.00 through 13 starts), but his end was a beaut with a 2.78 ERA over his final 16 trips to the hump. As many have noted, the key was that he got back to throwing his top pitch 'harder.' His success is that simple. He will have some starts where he is totally off and you'll pay for it on the ERA side. The plus is that during those starts Toronto usually yanks him out immediately and his ratios don't end up murdering you. Don't underestimate that there is almost no injury risk with this guy, either. No one wants to hear this, but when you've gone five consecutive seasons with 200+ innings, you DO NOT belong outside the top 100 at SP.
Relief Pitcher - Steve Cishek (#30 at RP, #247 overall), Joakim Soria (#53 at RP, #425 overall)
Cishek was a bad beat last season. Heading into the year he looked like one of the few closers who had a job on lock-down. There was no threat behind him, he had back-to-back good years, and he was healthy. But, all of that fell apart as Cishek's mechanics went out of whack. Now in Seattle, the Mariners are pushing and prodding him as their 9th-inning man. He is their best option, but a biceps issue has slowed him in the spring. He's back now and should take over as the final boss to begin the season. Understand what we have here ... the 30th closer off the board. For a guy with a prior history and a current gig, that's too cheap.
As for Soria, I just can't believe how low he is on the totem pole. When he has been healthy in his career, he has been a monster. He's back in Kansas City and backing up new man (Wade Davis). I know that Davis is going as one of the first three closers off the board, but he is no guarantee. We've all seen too many 8th inning studs flub it up when moved to the 9th inning (see Tyler Clippard of a year ago). I, like so many others, think that Davis will be very good, but Soria could easily fall back into his usual position if Davis has any struggles. If you're Ned Yost, you might just say that Davis is best in the 8th and that Soria is best in the 9th. That's where they have both been at their peak throughout their careers. And even if the move does not come to pass, you will still have a ratio stalwart with an 8th-inning Soria. At the very least, he is an excellent 3rd RP option for those in 12- or 15-team leagues.
You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.
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