Cincinnati Reds-News and Notes
Can Cody Reed make the jump from Double-A? Cody Reed has been the most impressive player at Reds camp. He has caught everyone's attention and that is a good thing for someone trying to make the jump from Double-A to the majors. Last season at Double-A Reed posted a 2.59 ERA with an 8.51 K/9 over two levels and was dominant in his short time in the Reds organization (10.87 K/9 and 2.17 ERA). Reed boasts a plus fastball (90-94) with movement, an above average change, and a slider from the left side. Reed is unlikely to start the season with the Reds simply because the Reds will not be contending this year, so why start the clock on him? However, this just means that we need to keep an eye on Reed for when he does get called up, because he is an impact talent that could have tremendous fantasy value right away.
Can Anthony DeSclafani step up and be the staff ace? If you examine Anthony DeSclafani's overall numbers, it won't paint the whole picture (3.97 xFIP and 7.36). He was someone who really improved as the year went along. He grew more and more confident in his curveball, which upped his strikeout rate. The ability to miss more bats did wonders for the rest of DeSclafani's game as well. He posted a 4.62 xFIP from May to July with a 6.23 K/9. Then in August and September he posted a 2.99 xFIP and 9.0 K/9. This is a 25 yr. old pitcher in his first big league season. The sky is very high based upon how he finished the 2015 season. He is being drafted as the 67th pitcher and the 260th player overall in NFBC drafts. Compare that to his teammate Rasiel Iglesias (40th Pitcher, 140th Overall) and you can get DeSclafani as a pitcher with similar upside at a fraction of the cost.
Who is Adam Duvall and what can he do for my fantasy team? Adam Duvall is a name that you might not have heard before, but in deep leagues and NL-only leagues, he is someone you need to know. He is older (27 yrs.) and has never been a top prospect, but what he does bring to the table is power. He has hit for power at every stop in the minors and flashed above average power in his 27 game stint with the Reds last year. He has the three necessary components to hit home runs (power, contact, and fly balls). Realistically it is going to come down to his ability to make contact at the major league level. If he makes enough contact he is going to provide good power numbers (20+ HR), but if he struggles to make contact, he could find himself on the bench. Take him late as a flyer as someone who has power upside, especially in Great American Ballpark.
Toronto Blue Jays-News and Notes Competition for the Final Rotation Spot Jesse Chavez, Aaron Sanchez, and Drew Hutchison are competing for the final spot in the Blue Jays rotation. Jesse Chavez would be best suited for the long man/spot starter role. He has filled this role very effectively for the Athletics over the past couple of seasons. Chavez does not have the stamina to be a starter the entire year. In both 2014 and 2015, Chavez posted excellent first half numbers (3.27 ERA) and then fell off dramatically (5.10 ERA) in the second half. The Jays would be wise to use Chavez in the bullpen to start out and then use his innings towards the end of the year if they need it.
Aaron Sanchez is making a strong case to be the fifth starter after throwing four innings of shutout baseball with four strikeouts and zero walks against the Rays on Sunday. Sanchez has the stuff to succeed at the big league level, it is just matter of control. In limited time last year, Sanchez walked 4.29 BB/9 and only struckout 5.95 K/9, which is below league average. Even if Sanchez wins the rotation spot he is not worth drafting outside of a deep AL-only league.
Drew Hutchison was drawing some buzz heading into the 2015 season as pitcher that could potentially breakout and he flopped big time. He posted a 5.57 ERA (4.21 xFIP). The decline in performance was miss less bats and being around the zone too much. He gave up 1.32 HR/9, because he tends to miss up in the zone, which major league hitters are able to exploit for home runs. Hutchison is someone to keep an eye on this spring because he does have more upside than both Jesse Chavez and Aaron Sanchez, but he needs to get the strikeouts back and pitch down in the zone.
Marcus Stroman and the Unknown Marcus Stroman is poised for a big breakout season for the Blue Jays this year. He may be small in stature, but he's got an excellent work ethic and the ability to be a frontline starter the Jays desperately need. Stroman has produced elite strikeout numbers in the minors and looks like he is ready to do that at the big league level. He also doesn't walk anyone and gets a ton of ground balls, which is a recipe for success. The only downside to Stroman is that he could be on some sort of innings cap or limited workload. He's never thrown more than 165 innings in a season and he threw just 35 IP a year ago. If the Jays and his health allow him to push near 180 IP, he should bring back tremendous value at his current ADP (96th Overall and 26th Pitcher).
Who is winning the left-field job? Last time we took a look at the Blue Jays LF job, it was a competition between Michael Saunders and Dalton Pompey. The competition is sorting itself out with Michael Saunders looking completely healthy and one of the best hitters at the Blue Jays camp. It is now Saunders job to lose, which has plenty of fantasy implications. Saunders provides a nice power/speed combo. He also will hit in the top lineup in baseball, which should boost his counting stats. If he stays healthy and plays 125+ games, Saunders has a real chance at a 15 HR/15 SB season. That is obviously his upside and it does not come without risk (health). Currently Saunders is being drafted as the 97th OF off the board in NFBC drafts. The guys going around him are Max Kepler, Alex Guerrero, Adam Duvall, and Marlon Byrd. None of those guys are guaranteed playing time, so why not go with the guy who is a health risk, but has tremendous surroundings and a clear path to playing time.
Around the League Vincent Velasquez (SP-PHI) Vincent Velasquez is fighting to make the Phillies rotation and he is making it hard for the Phillies to say no. He has a 3.21 ERA with a 16/4 K/BB ratio this spring over 14 innings pitched. Velasquez has shown the ability to miss bats, but has struggled with control. This could be a problem playing in Citizens Bank Park, but the strikeout upside is hard to ignore. He is going as 94th pitcher off the board in NFBC leagues. He is a high risk/high reward pick late in drafts.
Matt Moore (SP-TB) Matt Moore struck out eight Phillies on Thursday and only gave up one run. Moore now has a sterling 11/0 K/BB ratio this spring. It is still early, but a strong spring is an encouraging sign for a young talented pitcher that got better down the stretch. Moore has always struggled with his control (4.13 BB/9). Moore is another pitcher going late in drafts (263rd) that offers upside. He pitches in a very pitcher friendly park and has shown the ability to miss bats. A decrease in his walk rate would do wonders for his overall numbers.
George Springer (OF-HOU) George Springer is 9-23 (.391) this spring with (5) BB and (3) 2B. He has been hitting the ball hard, which is a really good sign. Springer had a tough 2015 season due to injuries, but he is still one of the few hitters with true 30 HR/30 SB upside. He hits the ball hard and hits enough fly balls to hit 30+ HR's. He also gets on base enough (.367) to steal 30+ bases. Health is the only thing stopping Springer from having a monster season.
Denard Span (OF-SFG) Denard Span injured his right shoulder diving for a ball on Wednesday. This is not the news that the Giants wanted to hear about their new leadoff hitter. Span was able to get some at-bats against minor league pitching on Thursday, so hopefully his shoulder injury is not serious. Span slashed .301/5/22 with 11 SB in 61 games in an injury riddled 2015 campaign. Span should score 100+ runs if he can stay healthy atop the Giants lineup. He is a legit .300 hitter that will contribute in runs and steals. That is nice value for the 64th OF off the board in NFBC leagues.
Matt Holliday (1B/OF-STL) Matt Holliday has been playing first base this spring in an effort to allow the Cardinals a little bit of flexibility in their outfield. It looks like the plan is to play Holliday at 1B against LHP, so they can have an outfield of Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk, and Tommy Pham. Regardless of his position, Holliday is slowing declining at the plate. He has maintained his excellent blend of plate discipline (14% BB, 18% K), but his power has declined four years in a row, which is never a good sign for someone entering their age 36 season. He should still be a capable offensive player, and his batted ball speed remains well above average. Although his HRs may drop into the low 20s, he's still capable of driving in 80+ according to our player projections software.
Yadier Molina (C-STL) Yadier Molina was able to take live batting practice on Thursday, which is an encouraging sign coming back from his thumb injury. The injuries are starting to mount for Yadier Molina and it isn't too surprising considering the position he plays and the amount of games that he has caught over the years. He has suffered thumb injury in back-to-back years now, which isn't a good sign for a catcher or hitter. From a fantasy perspective he offers batting average and not much else. The power has never been there, but he does make a ton of contact (11% K), which is good for his team. However, he just doesn't offer much when it comes to fantasy because he doesn't hit for power or run. His ADP has him as the 20th catcher off the board, which is a fair price for Molina at this stage in his career.
Miguel Cabrera (1B-DET) Miguel Cabrera is going on average as the 14th pick and has made his way into the second round in some drafts. This is an awesome buy low opportunity for someone who won the A.L. batting title a year ago. His power was down, but he played through injuries all year. All of Cabrera's peripheral stats line up with what he has done over his career. A return to the 30+ HR club is likely as well as a plus average and great counting stats. Draft Cabrera with confidence and not trepidation.
Travis d'Arnaud (C-NYM) Travis d'Arnaud hits both LHP and RHP well and has legitimate power at the catcher position. The only thing that has held d'Arnaud back is injuries. He has been injury prone throughout his minor and major league career. However, when on the field d'Arnaud is an above average offensive catcher. Travis d'Arnaud has 20+ HR upside. He hits 42% FB and has the power to hit the ball out (.218 ISO). He also pulls the ball, which helps power. The only downside to d'Arnaud is health. He is currently going as the 6th catcher off the board right behind Russell Martin and ahead of Matt Wieters and Stephen Vogt. If he can play a whole season there is no reason that he cannot be a top 5 catcher.
Andrew McCutchen (OF-PIT) Andrew McCutchen went deep for the second straight game. McCutchen has recently spoken out about his knee injury last year. He said that there was no diagnosis, but that it stripped him of his power and that he feels completely healthy this spring. McCutchen does not run much anymore, but should contribute across the board like he has in the past. He might not be a first rounder anymore, but he is still an above average fantasy player that you should not sleep on. His peripheral stats look good. He stills walks a ton (14% BB) and makes league average contact (19% K). The other interesting piece of information out of camp is that the Pirates are considering batting him second this year, which would lead to more AB's and runs scored, but less RBI.
Jacob deGrom (SP-NYM) Jacob deGrom threw three scoreless innings on Thursday against the Marlins. He was very efficient and dominant as he gave up just one hit. DeGrom is coming off a year in which he posted a career high in innings pitched by 40 IP. This is a significant jump and something to be aware of. He posted a 2.54 ERA (2.92 xFIP), 9.66 K/9, 1.79 BB/9, and 44% GB. Every pitch deGrom threw in 2015 registered at least average whiff rates with his change and cutter getting above average whiffs. There is no reason to think the deGrom won't dominate again in 2016 and bring back value at his current ADP of 37 (11th pitcher).
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