My Money is on Edwin Getting Paid in 2017
Edwin Encarnacion (TOR / DH) - Contract year alert! I was thinking back on Edwin's 2015 and thought it would have been a disappointing year. Then I realized he actually hit 39 home runs and had a wRC+ of 150. Of course, I was remembering his first half when he was more or less average (112 wRC+) and somehow forgot his absolutely monstrous second half (wRC+ of 201!). Encarnacion turned into a different hitter after the all-star break: his K rate decreased by over 5%, his walk rate increased 2%, and perhaps most important (and out of his control), his BABIP increased from .231 to .314. Most people will rightfully be high on Edwin this year, but former owners like me could be leery of his horrible first half. Don't hesitate with drafting Encarnacion, particularly in a contract year where the man would like to get what will likely be an enormous contract.
Mr. Consistency is Back at it Again
RA Dickey (TOR / SP) - The Talented Mr. Dickey falls in the category of: great real baseball asset, poor fantasy option. Dickey is almost guaranteed to throw 200+ innings of serviceable innings, but his skill set has been on the decline since his 2012 Cy Young season. If you're a gambling man (like me), you can utilize Dickey in weekly leagues when he has two starts. But other than that, you're best to stay away from the name value. His K rate declined to 5.3 per 9 last year, along with his swinging strike rate that declined to 9.1% (from 12.3% in his hey-day). Dickey let up five runs or more 8 times last season, so if you're wrong on one of his starts, it could be disastrous.
I Wonder if He's a One Hit Wonder?
Chris Colabello (TOR / 1B) - You know you're digging for information when you're reporting that Chris Colabello was 2-for-2 with a double and a home run in an intrasquad game! Colabello somewhat came into the limelight in 2015 at the age of 31, following a pretty quiet career that started in his age 28 season. He'll likely split time with Justin Smoak in 2016, but if he swings the bat like he did last year (wRC+ of 142) then he'll certainly see his fair share of time. By comparison to last year, he logged only 360 PA in 101 games (with 95 more PA in AAA). Colabello had some strong stats, but was very fortunate with a .411 BABIP. Given his lack of speed (2 career SB), we anticipate a large downward expectation to his .321 average. Colabello is likely to be on the waiver wire, but could warrant usage in a sticky situation given matchups.
The Move Back to Toronto Happ-ened (Zing!)
J.A. Happ (TOR / P) - J.A. Happ is back in Toronto for 2016 after a brief stint in Seattle and Pittsburgh. Happ was an incredible late-season add for fantasy folks last year, as he posted a 1.85 ERA and 2.19 FIP in 11 starts with the Bucs. Before that though? It was ugly. In addition, the move back to Toronto will be a tough adjustment, not only going back to the American League, but also in a hitters park. Happ is certainly worth a flier at the end of a draft as it's not completely out of the question that his second half adjustments translate to 2016. He could even tally some wins playing for the Blue Jays, but we've also seen his lack of success in Toronto before.
Floyd is Flying High
Gavin Floyd (TOR / P) - Somewhat of a good story here rather than any major fantasy implications, but Gavin Floyd finally feels healthy after a few nasty arm injuries have kept him away from pitching on a consistent basis since 2012. He's vying for a rotation spot in Toronto. Floyd was never great, but usually pretty consistent before his injury. We've seen pitchers reinvent themselves before to become serviceable a la Bartolo Colon. I'm hoping Floyd can stay healthy and put together another good year to reward his long battle back from injuries, as he just turned 33.
Survival of the Fittest
Darwin Barney (TOR / 2B) - Darwin Barney is a career .246 hitter, but that didn't stop him from logging 5 RBIs in his Grapefruit League debut against the Phillies. Barney was acquired by the Blue Jays last year and signed a one-year deal in the offseason to remain with the team. Barney won't have a fantasy impact outside of deep AL-only leagues as he'll be used in a utility role and potential platoon man. He'll certainly be fighting for his roster spot once Devon Travis returns from shoulder surgery, but it would be great to see a guy who was relegated to the minors early last year getting some more playing time in the Show.
Kolten Wong (STL / 2B) - Wong was extended for five years at $25.5MM, beginning in 2016, with a $12.5MM option for another season. St. Louis bought out two years of Wong's free agency seasons, making a low risk decision on a solid MI. Wong played 150 games last year with a wRC+ of about 96. True, he's more known for his base stealing and glovework, but he did nab 20 and 15 stolen bases the last two years, respectively, and he turns just 25 this year. Fantistics projects Wong for 16 HR and 21 SB.
David Murphy (BOS / OF) - David Murphy is back with the Boston Red Sox. Murphy started his career with the Sox in 2006, debuting for the Portland Sea Dogs. He was eventually traded from the Sox in a deal for Eric Gagne (which is somewhat famous because Gagne's ERA went from 2.16 before the trade to 6.75 after!). I usually think of Murphy as a platoon player since his career 111 wRC+ vs. righties isn't anything to sneeze at, but not enough to stand out too much. He may not make the Sox leaving camp, but will probably assume a Daniel Nava type role at some point, which is usually not great for season-long, but extremely advantageous in DFS.
Charlie Blackmon (COL / OF) - It was announced yesterday that the Rockies will raise the fences at Coors Field (nooo!!) in order to limit some home runs. Charlie Blackmon noted that it would probably cost him "a couple" or home runs. The Rockies are raising the height in two locations. It would take a man much smarter than me to figure out the effect it would have on Blackmon in an accurate manner, so instead I will agree with his assessment. Blackmon stood out last year with his huge stolen base improvement to 43, up from 28 the year prior. Most importantly, he was actually more successful in 2015 with a 77% success rate vs. 74% a year prior. While that rate isn't elite, it's enough to keep him moving on the basepaths. We project Blackmon 20 HR and conservatively 31 stolen bases.
Carlos Gonzalez (COL / OF) - Similarly to Blackmon, Cargo will be negatively affected by the change in the higher fences. However, he seemed pretty confident that he would have exactly one less home run than last year (a line drive off Carter Cappsm, he claims). The Rockies did some serious analysis before making this move, so perhaps there is some credence to his confidence. In my opinion, it would've taken the Great Wall of China to prevent Gonzalez's torrid July, when he batted .385 with 11 home runs. Cargo is an interesting option going into 2016: his overall numbers were great and he was certainly negatively impacted by poor luck early, but his 40 home runs will be difficult to repeat. His HR/FB rate was the highest of his career at 25.8%, vs. a career 19.7%. We project 34 home runs.
Jake Arrieta (CHC / P) - It's not that surprising, but Jake Arrieta was named the opening day starter for the Cubs. This is extremely well deserved, and while it bears little (if any) fantasy implications, it's a time to appreciate the success that Arrieta has had. I had cast him off as early as 2012 as an average arm, but you could see improvements in his game even in 2012 compared to the 4.76 and 5.05 ERAs that he posted before that season. Even after his dominant 2014 (2.53 ERA / 9.6 K rate), people doubted he could do it over a full season, since he had thrown 156 major league innings that year. He was just as good - and arguably better - over a full season. At Fantistics, we project 16 wins with 210 K's.
Jimmy Rollins (CHW / SS) - The corpse of Jimmy Rollins received a vote of confidence from Robin Ventura yesterday, who indicated that he expects Rollins to make the team out of spring training. It's hard to believe that you can go from everyday shortstop to the Dodgers to needing your manager to say something like that. That said, this isn't a knock on Rollins, who has had an incredible career. But at age 37, we shouldn't expect much from him. He lost mostly all of his value last year when he stole only 12 baes, vs. 30, 30, 22, and 28 in the previous four years. Rollins isn't guaranteed an everyday role, and even if he is, I'd be more inclined to take a shortstop with some more upside.
Ian Desmond (TEX / OF) - We've discussed the Ian Desmond signing here, but the interesting piece I wanted to bring up is the fact that he's playing in the outfield. For starters, I'm happy that Desmond landed on a team after being a victim of the Qualifying Offer. But I was shocked to learn that he would be playing left field. I have PTSD from the Red Sox thinking that Hanley Ramirez could slot effortlessly into that role. Granted, Desmond is not Hanley, but it's worth mentioning that an experiment like this has gone horribly, horribly wrong in the last 12 months. To boot, Desmond has been on the decline since 2012, with a wRC+ that has declined each year from 128 to just 83 last year. He was part of an entire Nationals team that disappointed, so maybe the new scenery and some motivation for the lack of interest from teams will fuel his fire. On the plus side, he'll likely have both SS and OF eligibility. On the negative side, his K rate is up from 19% in 2010 to 29.2% last year, and he'll need more than motivation to improve at the plate.
Michael Brantley (CLE / OF) - Good news out of Cleveland: Michael Brantley could return ahead of schedule from prediction of early May. This is certainly something to monitor as Brantley has the potential to be an under-the-radar elite outfield option. We currently project 489 at bats, but that could be adjusted upward (along with his counting stats) if he has a healthy spring.
Travis d'Arnaud (NYM / C) - d'Arnaud got a first baseman's glove in spring yesterday, though he isn't expected to play there until the latter part of Spring training. This is good news for his fantasy value, as more time at first base could mean more overall at bats, similar to what we see for Buster Posey. We currently project him for 454 at bats, but if we see him at first base, he could see a meaningful increase. Still, injuries remain a concern, but he could easily be a top 10 catcher with significant upside.
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