A's Outfield Platoon Part I
With the addition of both Khris Davis and Chris Coghlan this offseason, the A's outfield is as busy as ever. They now have: Josh Reddick, Billy Burns, Josh Reddick, Coco Crisp and Mark Canha potentially roaming the outfield grass at O.co. With all those names crowding the lineup sheet, and Billy Butler as the main DH, it's fair to say a lot of fantasy players are simply just going to write off the A's - which allows you, the informed reader, to take advantage. Jeremy F. Koo wrote a very interesting piece over at Athletics Nation, the A's SBNation site, which showed that potential owners of the majority of those seven players listed above really shouldn't worry about at bats. With Bob Melvin's propensity for platooning, plus the flexibility of players like Coghlan and Canha, there will be plenty of at bats to go around.
The three safest bets in terms of full-time at bats are Reddick in right, Burns in center and Davis in left. Of those three, Reddick seems the safest bet when on the field, while Burns and Davis offer a bit higher ceiling/lower floor option. Reddick (again, if healthy), seems like a pretty stable bet for an average around .275 and about 20 home runs. Nothing to sneeze at. Burns relied on a slightly inflated .339 BABIP driving his .294 average last season, especially when noting his 13.6 percent hard hit rate. However, the dude can fly, and his batted ball profile may well be in the Dee Gordon range. Burns could easily top 30 steals in a full season, and should score plenty of runs. Davis is the biggest unknown, as he was already tough to read and is now making the move from a hitter's park in Milwaukee to a pitcher's park in Oakland. However, given that all 27 home runs Davis hit in 2015 would have also left O.co (of course that doesn't account for the environment affecting those distances, but that's a lot harder to figure out), it's fair to say the change shouldn't hurt him too much. What might hurt Davis is if he has yet another slow start to the season. Davis hit just six home runs in the first half of 2015 before breaking out for 21 bombs in the second half. In a crowded outfield a start that slow could really start to hurt his at bats. I wouldn't be afraid to draft Davis in the late rounds of a mixed 10-team league, but I also wouldn't be afraid to cut bait with another slow start.
Ken Giles - "Ken" he make the adjustment?
Giles will be making the move from the NL East to the AL West while retaining his role as closer this season. Giles had 15 saves after the Phillies moved Jonathan Papel-bum last season. He posted his second consecutive season with an ERA under 2.00, and is budding with potential as a 25-year-old being the full reigns to the closing job on one of the top teams in the American League. That being said, going from the NL to the AL can be sometimes be tricky for pitchers, so let's take a look at a few recent examples. (Note, not every example.)
Rafael Soriano - Three seasons in NL: 2.95 ERA; 3.39 FIP; 10.5 K/9
Three seasons in AL right after: 2.50 ERA; 3.28 FIP; 8.6 K/9
Huston Street - 2.5 seasons in NL: 2.03 ERA; 3.57 FIP; 8.9 K/9
1.5 seasons in AL right after: 2.74 ERA; 3.42 FIP; 8.1 K/9
Kevin Gregg - Three seasons in NL: 3.86; 4.19 FIP; 8.8 K/9
Three seasons in AL right after: 4.21 ERA; 4.45 FIP; 8.2 K/9
Of course these are just three samples, but it does seem noticeable that all three saw their strikeout rate drop. FIPs pretty much stayed the same, and the slight jump in ERA seems fair to write off to a small sample. I think this is a fair way to project Giles. His strikeout rate should drop a bit without any more pitchers/pinch hitters to face, but it was an elite 11.16 per nine last season, so even a small drop should still leave him among the best. As far as FIP and xFIP are concerned, his career FIP is 1.82 and xFIP is 2.65. Projecting an ERA right between those two, around 2.30 seems fair. Even if those numbers are a bit shy of last year, they would put him among the elite closers this season, where I believe he belongs, personally. He's fifth in the ESPN closer rankings which feels about right, but he should be right in that tier with Allen and Britton right behind the top three.
Luis Valbuena - Val-BUENO?
Valbuena quietly put together a 25-home run season from third base last season, making himself highly rosterable for a good chunk of the 2015 season. As draft time approaches owners will obviously want to know whether the 30-year-old previous journeyman's breakout was real or if he's due for a decline. The first spot to look is at playing time, and that's one sign in Valbuena's favor. It looks like he has the third base spot to lose, and if he plays well should get even more at bats than last season's 434 ABs. The next spot to look is at his HR/FB rate. This is where the news isn't as good for Valbuena, as 2015 (16.7 percent) saw Valbuena nearly double his career rate of 9.6 percent. So how do we explain this? Well, Valbuena didn't have a higher hard hit ball rate than previous seasons, and didn't seem to be swinging for the fences any more than normal, as the rest of his batted ball profile lines up with his prior career. The most damning mark against Valbuena may be that among hitters with at least 18 home runs in 2015, Valbuena had the sixth-worst distance on his home runs, coming in with an average home run distance of just 386.8. Of course, hitting in the band box that is Minute Maid Park will do that, and teammates Evan Gattis and Colby Rasmus were right there among the worst in terms of home run distance. Valbuena seems due for a bit of decline in terms of power, but the boost in playing time, and friendly confines of Minute Maid Park make him a solid AL-Only option, and even plausible in deeper mixed leagues. His ranking in ESPN (#34 third baseman, #851 overall) is criminal.
Eddie Rosario - There's no "BB" in Rosario
The great Ted Schwerzler of "Off the Baggy" and "Twinkie Town" has been banging the regression drum on Rosario all offseason and with good reason. With 118 strikeouts to just 15 walks in 2015, Rosario appears like a very possible candidate to go "All Danny Santana" on Twins fans and fantasy owners in 2016. Rosario is currently outside of the drafting class on standard mixed leagues, but he's getting some buzz in AL-Only leagues and deeper leagues, especially keeper leagues, but I'm here to pour a bit of cold water on that. Rosario had the fourth-worst swing rate on pitches outside of the zone in 2015, and didn't show any particular propensity for making contact at a higher rate than average on those pitches. This meant Rosario often fell behind in the count and expect pitchers to exploit this advantage even more this season with an entire offseason of scouting to work with. The Twins also have some nice young depth in the minors at the outfield position (Oswaldo Arcia, still, and Max Kepler), and Twins fans will want to see a competitive team in 2016, so the trigger might be a bit quicker for Rosario despite his youth (24 years old) and strong 2015 season (.267/.289/.459 slashes).
Eduardo Escobar - The young Twins player you DO want
If you end up taking a high-risk/high-reward short stop this season, ala Troy Tulowitski or Ian Desmond, consider taking Escobar with a late pick, as the Twins short stop is just about the opposite. He's not going to blow the roof off your team, but he's also not going to blow up your team. Escobar doubled his home run output from 2014 to 2015, along with increasing his walk rate and decreasing his strikeout rate. He managed to post a better wRC+ in 2015 despite a 35 point drop in BABIP, which should see a bit a bounceback if anything in 2016. The patience he displayed wasn't a fluke, as he greatly cut down on his first-pitch strike rate last year, and the 27-year-old has shown definite signs of improvement. He is currently the 21st ranked shortstop in ESPN's pre-draft rankings, and is not a sexy name, but is indeed a very solid handcuff to a high-risk shortstop, or a very viable starter in AL-Only leagues. He also has outfield eligibility which only helps.
Around the league
Jarrod Dyson: The Royals speedster is expected to start the season on the disabled list, unfortunate news for potential owners (such as myself) who had high hopes for Dyson as a late-round steals option. I still think Dyson holds some level of intrigue given that he will be on the plus side of a platoon situation in right field for the Royals when he returns. Dyson is the guy you should flag on the free agent wire and pick up a day or two before his return. Even if he's not in the starting lineup, his ability to come in as a pinch runner and snag an all-important steal is awesome. Dyson has 96 steals in just 754 plate appearances the last three seasons. Of course those came in 297 games, but still, Dyson should easily steal 30 bases if he returns from this oblique injury without any lingering side effects. Dyson even flaunted his best line drive rate in 2015, a downright impressive 23.4 percent. He's never going to be a slugger, but he's a great option when he returns to the field.
Javier Baez: The Cubs potential-laded youngster debuted in centerfield on Thursday and struggled. He misplayed several balls, and continued the Hanley Ramirez theme of middle infielders struggling in their transitions to the outfield - albeit in one game. Baez is one of those fantasy players who lures owners in every season, but given the stacked roster the Cubs are fielding this year, plus his extreme swing-and-miss tendencies, it's hard to recommend the 23-year-old. That being said, if he starts to heat up, or grabs a regular spot in the lineup, his power potential and positional eligibility are still intriguing.
Brandon Beachy: With the official news of Brett Anderson's 3-to-5 month injury on Thursday, Beachy moves even closer to locking down a rotation spot for the Dodgers heading into the regular season. Beachy obviously has A LOT to prove, having last topped 100 innings in 2011, but those who can remember that far back remember a stud who had a 3.16 xFIP and struck out 10.74 batters per nine as a starter. On a team like the Dodgers, that kind of potential is worth a late-round draft spot in NL-Only leagues. If Beachy gets off to a quick couple starts, he may even be worth a spec add in mixed leagues, as his health is his biggest detriment at this point in time. Owners can always simply cut Beachy if he gets hurt again.
Cameron Maybin: Maybin suffered a hairline fracture in his left wrist on Wednesday, and the team announced Thursday that the offseason acquisition will miss four-to-six weeks to the injury. Maybin had a decent year in 2015, with 10 home runs, 23 steals and a .267 average. The biggest thing for Maybin was that he played in 141 games for the Braves, something he hadn't done since 2012. With the news Thursday, it's safe to start worrying about the health of the talented-when-healthy caveated Maybin. He's worth a spec pick up a couple days before his eventual return simply because of his ceiling and the lineup he is in, but if he gets hurt again, don't hesitate to cut bait.
Anthony Gose: While Cameron Maybin being injured to start the season is just about the least surprising news, ever, I'm still not buying Anthony Gose stock. Gose hit just .254 last season despite a ridiculous .352 BABIP. Do you know how hard that is to do?! Gose's BABIP was not at all supported by a lofty line drive rate (a pedestrian 20.8 percent) or hard hit ball rate (a poor 24.9 percent). It was all based on his speed, and one assumes a fair amount of luck. Of course, with Gose, speed is the name of the game, and despite the .254 average, Gose did use a decent walk rate (8.4 percent), along with the high BABIP to steal 23 bases last year. Color me skeptical that Gose gets 535 plate appearances on this Tigers team, however, and that's how many he needed to get those 23 steals last season. Hard pass.
Jean Segura: There was more good news for Jean Segura on Thursday, as his manager said that he could play just about every day if he could handle second base. Segura is a strong fielding shortstop, and the move to second base is feasible. If Segura were to pick up second base eligibility as well, it would only help the stock of a player who I already really like. Segura is an excellent source for late steals in the draft, and is in a better lineup situation than last year. Segura has played at least 142 games each of the last three seasons and averaged nearly 30 stolen bases a season. His average is unlikely to get much higher than .270, but with his steady bat, 2B/SS eligibility, and 25-30 steals, he's vastly underrated where he is being drafted, if he is being drafted at all.
Jonathan Villar: Villar is a possible late-round flier in slightly deeper leagues, and should start to get some buzz in NL-Only leagues. Villar was always going to be blocked by Carlos Correa in Houston, but slashed .284/.339/.414 in 128 plate appearances last season. That average is a bit inflated with a .360 BABIP, but the seven steals he got in that fifth of a season bodes well for a full-time gig in Milwaukee. Craig Counsell also announced Thursday that he's looking at Villar as a possible leadoff hitter, only increasing the number of chances he will get for steals. Villar is the 20th ranked shortstop on ESPN as of now, but don't be surprised to see his stock even higher come draft day.
Carter Capps: The dreaded name "Dr. James Andrews" was invoked in relation to Carter Capps' elbow injury on Thursday, even worse news for one of the funnest potential closers heading into 2016. Capps absolutely ran a train on all of baseball last season with a 1.16 ERA (and 1.17 xFIP!) to go along with 58 strikeouts in just 31 innings. Of course because we can't have anything good in fantasy baseball, it appears as though the Marlins potential closer will likely miss a good portion of 2016, if not the entire season. If Capps somehow survives his Dr. J-A meeting, don't be afraid to take a flier on a potential closer whose peripherals are through the roof.
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