Mike Moustakas (3B-KC): Continuing to validate his 2015 power surge, Mike Moustakas hit his 6th homer of the year Friday as part of a 3-for-4 night to lead the Royals over the O's. In 67 plate appearances the Mouse has posted a 5:7 BB:K ratio and a 43% hard hit rate to go with a 105 MPH AVG speed off bat on his homers. While some might see regression, they'd be right...if they are predicting positive regression, as he is carrying a .245 BABIP into today's contests and he's hitting .290!
Aaron Sanchez (SP-TOR): The A's derailed the Aaron Sanchez breakout train, tagging the Jays starter with 6 earned runs on 10 hits and 1 walk in 4 and 1/3 innings. The regression monster ate the entire meal in one sitting! The long ball and some bad-batted ball luck hurt him on Friday, but he continued to induce plenty of ground balls and limit the free passes. While I'm still a believer, his league-average swinging-strike rate, likely stunted by his pedestrian 5 MPH delta between changeup and fastball, limits his upside in the short-term. Hold.
Travis Shaw (3B-BOS): While Mookie Betts stole the show for the Red Sox, Travis Shaw quietly added 2 more hits to what has been a solid start to 2016. While his .462 BABIP is unsustainable to say the least, his 33% hard hit rate coupled with his all-fields approach suggests a .280+ AVG is likely. Through 81 career games he carries an ISO north of 200. Look for 15-20 home-run power to show up soon. With a date with Mike Fiers set for Saturday, it could arrive today for $3100 on FanDuel.
Justin Verlander (SP-DET): Despite striking out 10 and allowing 2 earned runs across 7 innings, Justin Verlander's Dr. Jeckyl wasn't enough to outpitch Josh Tomlin. JV now carrries a 5.79 ERA/3.85 xFIP and a 25:8 K:BB ratio into his next start, and with that, a aura of mystery. While he'll still flash pieces of his CY Young form, Verlander's velocity continues to hover in the 91-92 MPH range on average while his chase rate has dropped below league average. When his mechanics and mind are right, he can ring up double-digit K's, but when they are off, he can play WHIP killer in a hurry. Owners are advised to pick a strategy of all or none, as playing the matchups is futile with this fickle beast.
Hector Santiago (SP-LAA): ($8100) and his matchup at home against the M's could free up cap for hitters in cash games. Santiago has pitched well--through 20 and 2/3, he's posted a 3.72 xFIP, a 47% GB rate, and a K-rate approaching 25%. Santiago has liked the friendly confines in Anaheim, while Seattle has struggled against lefties (22nd so far in 2016). With plenty of tasty hitter options shoeing it up in Colorado, Arizona, and Milwaukee, the extra $1000-$1500 you'll save by dropping to Santiago from the elite options could be well worth it.
