Joe Panik- 2B- SF- Idea- Although he hasn't taken off against RH pitching this year (.224 average) that is due primarily to bad luck (.190 BABIP against them.) In 2015 Panik posted a slash line of .318/.379/.473 and hit 7 of his 8 homers against them. Combine that, regression to the mean just waiting to happen and Andrew Cashner's .287/.379/.517 slash line against LH hitting last year and Panik is primed for a big game. Value play- Draft Kings salary $3900
Matt Wisler- P- ATL- Cold- Wisler had ended 2015 strong, with 5 quality starts in his last 6. He had thrown 2 quality starts in 3 so far this year plus he picked up a save in a relief outing between his 2nd and third starts. Yesterday didn't continue the hot streak as he was tagged for 5 runs in 5 IP. However, even though Wisler had an extra day of rest after his previous start, there may have been some fatigue happening since he had hit a career high of 115 pitches. At 23, it wouldn't be good for Wisler to have many outings of that length. He is not projected to be more than a back end starter in very deep fantasy leagues but will lose even that value if he is overused. Wisler only lasted for 81 pitches yesterday, which might actually have been good for him long term.
Tony Cingrani- P- CIN- Cold- If Cingrani was trying to make a case to move into the closer role for the Reds he did a bad job of it yesterday. Entering the 7th inning with 1 out after starter Brandon Finnegan yielded a game-tying homer, Cingrani had let the Mets take the lead in the span of 3 batters. He has now allowed runs in 2 of his last 3 appearances. The Reds only have one save as a team so far this year so a closer is something they are searching for. Cingrani doesn't look like the answer at this point.
Jayson Werth- OF- WAS- Cold- Werth is hitting just .190 after going 0-for-4 yesterday. His .216 BABIP has a lot to do with that. Werth has hit 3 homers in 67 PAs so far, with 2 of them coming at Nationals Park. Werth's power hasn't been much affected by playing his home games in a pitcher-friendly park and doesn't seem to be suffering as his average has plunged. His Batting EYE of 0.44 isn't that far below his career average of 0.50 so it looks like there's not much wrong with Werth that some regression to the mean won't fix.
Ryan Braun- OF- MIL- Hot- Braun extended his hitting streak to 8 games with a pinch hit double last night against the Cubs. He has hits in 9 of his last 10 games. He has been extremely lucky in this stretch, with a BABIP of .500 in the 9 games before last night. It hasn't been all luck, though as he has 4 homers as well as 3 doubles. Braun now has 5 homers for the season, more than a fifth of the 24 he was projected in the preseason. His BABIP for the season is now .408 so regression is going to hit his average so expect that to go down. Braun's FB% is actually a little lower than it was last year (30.2% to 31.0%.) What has changed is his Pull% that has gone from 30.7% to 47.2%. That's something that could be countered by a shift if he has hit that point in his career where he becomes a dead pull hitter.
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