A month into the baseball season, there are usually plenty of surprise players who are leading the way in fantasy. Players who have gotten off to unexpected hot starts and maybe haven't had a chance to cool off yet. This year though, the surprise is that the very top players in fantasy haven't actually been surprises at all. Entering Thursday's games, the top eight players per ESPN's Player Rater were actually all picked regularly within the first two rounds (Altuve, Harper, Arenado, Rizzo, Donaldson, Arrieta, Sale, and Kershaw). That being said, there are still plenty of players selected in later rounds that have thus far outperformed their draft day value. Here are a few such players in the AL and what to expect from them going forward:
Nick Castellanos, 3B, DET
Castellanos wasn't selected among the top 20 3B's in this year's drafts, yet here he is as the #4 3B on ESPN's Player Rater entering Thursday's game, and a .383 BA, 5 HR's and 22 RBI through 26 games. To be fair, the high average isn't totally luck. He has a ridiculously high 31.4% LD% and his Hard% is also higher than ever before. That said, he is still striking out at his typical high levels and his BABIP is currently .455. Yes, he's been hitting more line drives, but .455? No. It is very unlikely he will hit .300 from here on out. On the plus side, if he keeps hitting the ball in the air (his GB% is among the lowest in the league), he has a decent shot at his first 20 HR campaign.
Steve Cishek, RP, SEA
Even though Cishek projected to begin the year as the Mariners' closer, fantasy owners averaged waiting at least 25 RP's into drafts before making him a selection. The reason for this was obvious; Cishek had easily posted the worst numbers of his career just a year before in almost every category, and it was just a matter of time before he lost the closer job to Joakim Benoit or somebody else. A month into season, his role looks as safe as ever. His K and BB rates are back to their pre-2015 levels, and his SwStr% is at a career high, culminating in an 0.64 ERA and 0.86 WHIP with 9 saves through his first 13 appearances. Not to mention that top competitors Benoit and Tony Zych are now both on the DL. It's looking right now like Cishek's 2015 was the anomaly.
Jose Quintana, SP, CWS
Quintana has been extremely consistent the past 3 seasons: An ERA between 3.30 and 3.60, a WHIP in the 1.20's, a strikeout total between 160 and 180, and exactly 9 wins each of the past 3 years. So it makes sense that fantasy owners would take him in the mid-to-late rounds of drafts as maybe a 4th starter or so. What those owners have gotten so far is a 1.40 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 4 wins through 6 starts. So what has changed? Well, not much actually. True, his current K% would be a career high, but his SwStr% is right around his career norm, so there should be some regression there. In addition, his HR/FB% is miniscule (2.6%) and his strand rate (84.7%) is also unsustainable. All of this makes me think we'll end up seeing the same Quintana we've seen the past 3 seasons, only this time he should actually get to double-digit wins.
Drew Smyly, SP, TB
Smyly was drafted outside of the top-30 SP's this spring, not because of performance but rather because of his lack of being able to stay on the field (37 starts over the past 2 years). So far in 2016, he's stayed on the field and performed, actually better than he ever has before. His K/9 is up to an elite 10.66, his 13.3% SwStr% is excellent, and his 1.82 BB/9 would be a career low. It remains to be seen if Smyly can stay healthy for an entire season, but if he does, it looks like he'll be giving very positive returns for those who took a chance with him.
Mark Trumbo, OF, 1B, BAL
Owners took Trumbo late in drafts hoping to get some cheap pop, and they've gotten just that as he's already hit 8 HR's through the Orioles' first 26 games. What they did not expect is his BA to be sitting at .333 here in May. Well, the .333 average for the first month is in the bank and Trumbo's owners should enjoy it, just don't expect it moving forward. His BABIP is at a lofty .400 (career .294), his K% is as high as ever, and none of his other peripherals have really changed. Trumbo is a career .253 hitter, and I don't see why we should expect anything more than that for the remainder of the season.
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