Jon Gray (SP-COL): Gray painted the black yesterday, striking out 5 Giants and allowing only 3 baserunners through 7 scoreless in another masterful effort on the road that was once again fueled by a confidence in his curveball. For the season he now carries a 5.40 ERA/2.11 xFIP and a 28:6 K:BB ratio in 21 and 2/3 innings with a 47% ground ball rate. The latter number will be key as he tries to tame Coors Field this week, as he has allowed a .440 wOBA there compared to a .250 mark on the road. Yikes! For now he may be the best streaming option in the game, but owners outside of NL-only leagues are advised to sit him while he pitches at home until he shows he can tame the beast.
Adam Wainwright (SP-STL): Wainwright, who may have earned a float in the "National Day of Potential Concern" parade with his woeful April, allowed 3 earned runs on 7 hits in 6 and 1/3 against the Pirates. Waino has been unfortunate with a 59% strand rate, and his .324 BABIP against is nearly 30 points above his career norm. However, his groundball and strikeout rates are sitting at career lows and his swinging strike rate of 7% along with an average fastball of 89 MPH have me concerned despite the encouraging start. He's simply giving up too much hard contact on a consistent basis and is not missing enough bats to bail him out. While he a true pitcher and should remain effective without typical Waino stuff, without the K-rate, he becomes a backend option in standard mixed leagues. Buyer beware.
Aledmys Diaz (SS-STL): Aledmys Diaz racked up 2 more hits in 4 ABs and scored a run, pushing his average over .400. Diaz looked strong in the Arizona Fall League and has maintained those gains through his move from AAA to the Bigs in 2016. He now has 6 BB's and 8 K's in 98 plate appearances and leads the NL with a .402 AVG. Yes, some regression is on the way, as his .405 BABIP is unsustainable; however, the 41% hard-hit rate, the 47% ground-ball rate, and his above-average speed lead me to suspect a minor regression is in store; likewise on his 18% HR/FB rate, as his 105.8 MPH speed off bat and 403 feet as his average distance support an above average mark. It's no wonder the Cardinals have said they will find Diaz regular AB's when Jhonny Peralta returns. The only concern here for fantasy owners is if he'll continue to see those AB's out of the 8-hole.
Brandon Finnegan (SP-CIN): Brandon Finnegan (hamstring) struck out 1 Brewer and allowed 3 earned runs in 5 innings, running out of gas yet again in the 6th. Finnegan has incorporated sinkers and changeups into his repertoire to help him survive as a starter. Coming into the start, he had thrown the changeup 113 times and had induced 42% whiffs on swings, hinting at its potential as an above-average offering despite an underwhelming delta between it and his fastball. Batters have feasted on his fastball, posting a .344 ISO against it, and he seems to fatigue after the pitch count reaches north of 80. He's a worthy streaming option, but until he learns to pitch deeper into games, especially given the Reds shaky bullpen, leave him for deeper leagues for the majority of the matchups.
Aaron Nola (P-PHI): Slated for a road start against Justin Nicolino and priced at $8500, Aaron Nola makes for a solid tournament play today. Nola, who has pitched much better on the road in his young career, brings a 50% GB rate and a 29% K-rate into Sunday's tilt and its favorable ballpark shift. Nola has held lefties to a .211 wOBA with a nasty curveball and a developing changeup, and if he can stay out of trouble with Yelich, plus with Stanton, and Ozuna, he'll rack up the K's and the innings and put himself in line for that all-important W.
Sunday Value Plays on FanDuel:
Brett Wallace ($2500)
Billy Hamilton ($2500)
Maikel Franco ($2800)
Patrick Corbin ($6800)
