Christian Friedrich-Padres-SP
Christian Friedrich went 6 IP and gave up 0 ER on 2 H, 3 BB, and 9 K's against the Rockies. Friedrich came into the game with a 2.57 ERA, but his 5.17 SIERA suggests that it is an anomaly. Friedrich has a below average strikeout rate (17%) and his control is awful (12% BB). Friedrich has posted above average swing strike rates in the past, but this season it sits at 7.7%, which is well below league average. He is a lefty that pitches in a great pitcher's park, but his peripherals do not paint a pretty picture going forward. He gets the Nationals at home next week, which isn't a terrible matchup.
Melvin Upton Jr.-Padres-OF
Melvin Upton Jr. is having a nice bounce back year for the Padres. He is doing a little bit over everything (7 HR, 13 SB). The average isn't there at .240, but he has room for growth in his BABIP and he has cut back on his wing and miss (slightly). If he can maintain an average above .250, he is going to be extremely useful due to his ability to steal bases. Upton's rest of season projections are for 7 HR and 11 SB, which would put him very close to a 15 HR/25 SB season.
Kyle Davies-Brewers-SP
Kyle Davies went 6 IP and gave up 0 ER on 3 H, 1 BB, and 7 K's against the Mets. Davies came into the game with a 4.29 ERA (4.34 SIERA) and left with a 3.88 ERA. Davies has a below average strikeout rate of 18%. He would need an above average ground ball rate to succeed with a strikeout rate like that, but he doesn't have that either (47% GB). Davies doesn't have the SwStr (7%) to project more strikeouts, which leaves him as a streamer in NL only leagues and a waiver wire pitcher in mixed leagues.
Steven Matz-Mets-SP
Steven Matz went 6 IP and gave up 4 ER on 9 H, 0 BB, and 5 K's against the Brewers. Matz has been excellent for the Mets this year. He has a 2.71 ERA (3.10 SIERA) with a 4.69 K/BB ratio. Matz has shown excellent control matched with above average strikeout totals (25% K). Matz is an enigma in the sense that he has posted below average swing strike rates, but has above average strikeout totals. It can't be explained and might just be part of his profile. He gets the Braves next time out, which is a plus, plus matchup for Matz and a nice bounce back start.
DFS Value Play
David Peralta-Diamondbacks-OF
David Peralta is at home with the platoon advantage against RHP Mike Bolsinger. Peralta has a three year average of .380 wOBA and .211 ISO vs. RHP. Peralta also has a 23% LD and 35% Hard vs. RHP. DraftKings: $4,000
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