Saves. You have to have them, but for many fantasy owners, this category is the most frustrating one to secure for the entire season. The "closer carousel" has become the new normal in fantasy leagues, but there's an even more concerning trend over the last several seasons.
The number of "safe" closers is getting smaller every year and more managers are embracing committees in the ninth inning or unconventional late inning reliever usage (think Cleveland). That's why this season, for the first time since I started writing A Closer Look, I'm actually recommending that you pay up for at least one closer in the top 2 tiers. It's my belief that after the second tier, there is a sharp drop-off in both projectability and reliability of the players from these tiers.
Does that mean everyone in the third tier and below shouldn't be drafted? Absolutely not. In fact, there's several players in these tiers who I believe hold quite a bit of upside. Unfortunately, some of these players don't even have the closing gig yet! This year it's going more important than ever to be diligent on the waiver wire and in many leagues, that diligence will begin at the draft table during the later rounds of your draft.
Subscribers know that identifying handcuffs is one of the primary objectives of my weekly closer column (part of Fantistics' Baseball Season Package premium content) and while normally there's always a handful of rocky situations, this year the number is closer to ten.
Here are the player notes included in our 2017 Draft Software of some players that I feel are going underdrafted this season. Most of these players can be taken in the later rounds of your fantasy draft and will likely return more profit than other relievers drafted around the same ADP or for the same auction price.
Reliever Player Notes:
Kelvin Herrera (KC, Blended ADP: 10.5)- With Wade David traded, the closing job is now officially Kelvin Herrera's to lose. There's a lot to like here while taking a flyer on Herrera outside of the top closers. A 3% jump in swinging strike rate last season translated into an 8% increase in his strikeout rate. Thanks to a nice jump in his first strike % as well as his zone %, Herrera also was able to lower his walks down to a new career best of 4%. His ERA and xFIP from 2016 are both in line, supporting the potential for a repeat year in 2017. He's flying under the radar and could easily hop into the first or second tier of closers this year.
Raisel Iglesias (CIN, Blended ADP 17.12) - The Reds are currently planning to go with the dreaded closer-by-committee heading into 2017, headlined by Raisel Iglesias and supported with Drew Storen, Michael Lorenzen and Tony Cingrani. Iglesias has, by far, the superior skillset of the group and we believe he will eventually rise to the top of the committee. Iglesias checks all the boxes with a plus fastball and devastating slider that comes in 12 MPH slower. During his two major league seasons, Iglesias has been difficult for hitters to square up and make solid contact. He profiles as the type of closer that can be had in the later rounds, but return early round value.
Hector Neris (PHI, Blended ADP 20.5) - Jeanmar Gomez dominated the save opportunities for the Phillies last season, which means the superior pitcher, Hector Neris, isn't a lock to open the year as Philly's closer. Nonetheless, Neris is the one to own here and there's a lot to like. His 68% contact rate, 15% swinging strike rate and 33% chase rate all point towards a reliever with high upside potential as a closer, if given the opportunity.
Cam Bedrosian (LAA, Blended ADP 22.7) - Bedrosian will be given every opportunity to run away with the Angels closing job this spring. A lot to like with a 31% strikeout rate, but walks have been a concern for him at all levels. A high 50% groundball rate can offset some of the extra baserunners, but the strong ratios a year ago were made possible thanks to a high 87% strand rate last year.
Michael Feliz (HOU, Undrafted) - A poor man's Andrew Miller, Feliz is a multi-inning weapon out of the Astros bullpen with the same strikeout upside, but a few more walks. A low strand rate and high HR/FB rate contributed to his 4.43 ERA, but xFIP was just 2.67.
Nate Jones (CWS, Blended ADP 25.4) - Will become closer in Chicago if/when David Robertson is dealt. His nasty slider induces a ton of missed bats (52% whiffs per swing), yet has enough command to keep his pitches in the zone. Will be an intriguing closer at some point.
Neftali Feliz (MIL, Blended ADP 26.12) - Has the leg up for the closing job in Milwaukee. Regained his velocity in 2016 (up to 96 MPH) and subsequently his strikeout rate rose to the highest level since 2011 (28%).
Carter Capps (SD, Blended ADP 35.4) - Boasting an unusual delivery, Capps racked up unprecedented strikeout totals and had the inside track to the closing job in Miami before undergoing Tommy John Surgery last spring. He's barely a year removed from the procedure, so it's unknown what we'll see from him this year in San Diego. He could be an option later in the year in the 9th inning.
Daniel Hudson (PIT, Blended ADP 43.7) - Hudson is the darkhorse to leave camp with the closing job for Pittsburgh. The right-handed counterpart to incumbent Tony Watson, Hudson has a nice 12% SwStr% and 32% chase rate, but his 8% walk rate is pedestrian and his 41% groundball rate is on the low end.
Arodys Vizcaino (ATL, Blended ADP 40.5) - Has to find a way to stay healthy and the Braves likely will not generate many save opportunities, but Vizcaino continues to have one of the more intriguing arms in all of baseball. Will need to beat out Jim Johnson for the closing job and reduce his walks (14% walk rate in 2016), but his 97 MPH fastball and knee-buckling 85 MPH slider pair up for a devastating combination of pitches that led to a swinging strike rate of 14% last season.
Want to see more? All of my closer/reliever player notes are included in the 2017 Player Projections Software.
