Eric Thames (1B-MIL) - We will see whether Jesus Aguilar cuts into Thames' playing time at some point, but $16 million says that Thames will get plenty of rope. The Brewers started Thames in the two-hole between Jonathan Villar and Ryan Braun, so one would think he's see plenty of pitches to hit, though hitting that high will limit Thames' RBI opportunities. Thames had a two-run double and a walk in five trips to the plate on Monday, so he's off to a .250/.400/.500 start back here in the States. Thames hit .263/.368/.404 with just one homer this spring, so it's fair to wonder how the 124 HRs he hit in three years in the Korean League will translate over here. I'm cautiously optimistic that he can go .260-25-80.
Junior Guerra (SP-MIL) - Guerra lasted just three innings Monday before landing on the DL with a calf strain running to first base. Guerra, the team's "ace", allowed a pair of runs on a two-run Mark Reynolds HR with four strikeouts before he left. He's now on the 10-day DL, but manager Craig Counsell indicated that the stint would go beyond the 10 days. Guerra posted a 6.75 ERA this spring, allowing six home runs and an ugly 9:7 K:BB in 17.1 innings. As a 31-year-old rookie last year, Guerra managed a strong 2.81 ERA in 20 starts, but his FIP was 3.76, so I think most of us are expecting fairly significant regression, and now he's not even healthy. I have zero shares of Guerra fortunately, helping make up for the multiple ones I have of Tanaka.
J.T. Realmuto (C-MIA) - Most sites already have Realmuto as a top-five catcher, but given he doesn't have that "name" recognition of some of the guys below him, it seems he's still flying a bit under the radar. Realmuto singled, doubled, and scored a run in four at-bats Monday. He's opening as the team's #2 hitter, so with Dee Gordon in front and Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton hitting behind him, Realmuto looks to be in a good spot. Realmuto raised his BA from 2015's .259 to .303 last year, though maintaining a .359 BABIP could be challenging. The big question around Realmuto is how or if his power is going to develop. He's hit 10 and 11 home runs the last two years. He does pull the ball a lot, so perhaps some of last year's 31 doubles will turn into home runs this year.
Jeremy Hellickson (SP-PHI) - The Phillies have some intriguing young talent on the hitting side of the equation, and if they can get a couple surprising performances from their pitching staff, they could at least show good strides over last year. Hellickson had a good start to his year Monday, holding the Reds to a run on six hits over five solid innings. Unfortunately he struck out just one, but Hellickson has been a pretty consistent 7+ K/9 guy the last few years, so the strikeouts should be there this year. He pitched to a 3.71 ERA in 2016 with a 4.03 FIP, and given his recent consistency, a 4.00 or so ERA should be achievable again this season. Hellickson is a prime July trade candidate given he's on a one-year deal and the Phillies will likely sell off veteran assets (again). In the meantime, he should continue to fair well.
Andrew Toles (OF-LAD) - Given the Dodgers won 14-3 behind Clayton Kershaw's one earned run in seven innings, there are several Dodgers deserving of mention today, but let's look at Toles. Toles found himself in the leadoff spot on Monday, going 2-for-5 with a run scored. Toles is highly likely to be in a platoon role, so that limits his fantasy upside, but against RHP, his status as the leadoff guy increases is value in what looks to be a very good and deep LA lineup. Toles hit .317 this spring, though he only notched one walk to 62 at- bats. Toles posted a so-so 7% BB% in his brief MLB stint last year, and to keep his spot as the leadoff guy, he'll likely need to show more plate discipline.
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