Chris Archer-Rays-SP
Chris Archer went 6 IP and gave up 5 ER on 8 H, 2 BB, and 4 K's against the Orioles. Archer through 16 starts has a 3.97 ERA (3.33 xFIP). He has upped his strikeout rate to 30% while maintaining his walk rate (7% BB). Archer's increased strikeout rate is backed up by a 13% SwStr which is up from 12% last year. He has upped slider usage from 40% to 46%, which has led to a decrease in his changeup usage. For long-term longevity it might not be the best idea to throw 45% sliders but it is leading to an increase in strikeouts, which is good for fantasy. His advanced stats point to a better ERA going forward with a plus strikeout rate.
Rick Porcello-Red Sox-SP
Rick Porcello went 6.1 IP and gave up 3 ER on 4 H, 1 BB, and 8 K's against the Angels. Porcello through 16 starts has a 5.00 ERA (4.36 xFIP). He is having the opposite of his Cy Young performance from last year. His strikeout rate is still average at 20.5% and he has an above average walk rate 4%. This biggest difference between this year and last is 1.55 HR/9 compared to 0.93 and a .366 BABIP to last years .269. For someone who doesn't miss a ton of bats, he is going to be dependent on batted ball luck. Porcello is not as bad as his 5.05 ERA, but he is also unlikely to repeat anything close to last year. His true talent is closer to his 4.36 xFIP.
Trevor Bauer-Indians-SP
Trevor Bauer went 6.2 IP and gave up 4 ER on 8 H, 1 BB, and 4 K's against the Twins. Bauer through 15 starts has a 5.53 ERA (3.53 xFIP). His advanced metrics paint a far different picture than his traditional stats. He is posting a career high 28% strikeout rate. His walk rate is 9.3% but he has never shown great control. The biggest difference between his advanced stats and his ERA is a .342 BABIP when his career average is .296. They also like his 1.54 HR/9 to regress, which means better times could be in store for Bauer. The increase in strikeouts is due to a significant increase in his curveball use from 19% to 27%.
Cameron Maybin-Angels-OF
Cameron Maybin was 0-4 against the Red Sox. He has been one of the best overall values to this point. Maybin is hitting .271 with 6 HR, 17 RBI, and 22 SB. He has been red hot over the past week hitting .399 with 3 HR and 2 SB. The Angels as a team have the green light when they get on base so the stolen bases should continue provided that he stays healthy. With stolen bases declining getting 30+ SB out of Maybin given his draft position has been a tremendous value. He is showing excellent on base skills with a 15% BB and 17% K, which bodes well for him getting on base and running going forward.
DFS Value Play
Joey Gallo-Rangers-3B
Joey Gallo is known for his prodigious power and for good reason. This season he is hitting .197 with 19 HR. He has a .332 wOBA and .309 ISO against RHP this year. He does have trouble making contact (38% K) so his matchup with RHP Luis Cessa a plus one. Cessa has a 17% K and 7% SwStr. Anytime Gallo goes up against a contact pitcher he jumps to the top of my list. Fanduel: $3,000
This is just a small sample our daily analysis, join our member area for over 80 player updates daily. Click here for details: https://www.insiderbaseball.com/baseballsample.htm Click here to register: http://www.fantistics.com/salesbaseball.php3
