Julio Teheran (SP, ATL) - Teheran blanked the Nationals over seven innings, walking two and striking out five. He came into the game with pronounced home/road splits and kept them that way, feeding into his 3.09 ERA on the road (6.47 at home). He's been a headache to own all season, currently sitting with a 4.57 ERA over 169.1 innings. His 7.23 K/9 is the lowest mark he's ever posted over a full season, and his 3.40 BB/9 is also the worst of his career. He's still just 26 years old so it's hard to imagine he continues this downward trajectory, but even in deep dynasty leagues where youth is gold he is a low value asset after this nasty season. SunTrust Park is looking like a very hitter-friendly environment after its first year, making matters worse for him. He'll probably get drafted in some deep leagues next year, but unless we see something new from him in Spring Training I won't be expecting much from him in 2018.
Gio Gonzalez (SP, WAS) - Gonzalez pulled a choke job for those that were relying on him in their playoffs, giving up five runs over five innings despite a strong 8:1 K:BB ratio. Gonzalez has been improbably great all season, and even after this ugly outing holds a 2.68 ERA over 184.2 innings for the Nationals. His 3.87 FIP and 4.21 xFIP have pointed towards regression for a long time now, but this late in the season the regression from his .254 BABIP and 83.7% strand rate isn't worth worrying about. You have to keep rolling him out at this point, but for 2018 he will probably come overpriced and will be a starter to avoid as he rolls into his age 32 season.
Matt Carpenter (1B/2B/3B, STL) - Carpenter reached base in all five trips to the dish, walking four times and doubling while scoring twice despite a lingering shoulder issue. Carpenter has disappointed given his expectations, with a .239 average and 19 home runsover 565 plate appearances. He has maintained his traditionally excellent plate discipline though, with a 17.3% walk rate that has allowed him to keep a .382 OBP. His .272 BABIP is .49 points below his career rate despite a 42% hard contact rate that is the same as last season, but a 7% increase in fly balls to 50% is too extreme to expect a .300+ BABIP to follow. There really isn't anything concerning here besides an over extreme fly ball rate, so if he reigns it back next season and gets back to his traditional batted ball profile he should be in line for a nice bounce back campaign.
Domingo Santana (OF, MIL) - Santana enjoyed a three hit night with two RBI and a stolen base, his 13th of the year. Santana has had a breakout year despite a 29% strikeout rate, hitting .276/.368/.482 with 24 home runs at age 25. His overall improvement can be attributed largely to his improvements against right-handed pitching; in 2016 he hit for a .316 wOBA against righties with a 34.9% K%, while this year he has a .359 wOBA with a 30.5% K%. The strikeouts are still high, but at least he offsets them with a 12% overall walk rate that is sustainable thanks to a judicious approach at the plate, swinging at just 26.6% of pitches outside of the zone. The steals are a surprise since he hasn't stolen double-digit bases since he swiped 12 back in 2013 at Double-A, but he has been caught just 4 times in 17 tries so low double-digits seem repeatable next year. He has the potential to be an underrated power/steal contributor in 2018.
Rhys Hoskins (1B/OF, PHI) - Hoskins hit ANOTHER two home runs for the Phillies, giving him a ridiculous 16 homers and 34 RBI over 32 games. Maybe they should have called him up earlier considering Tommy Joseph has just 21 homers over 131 games, but that's beside the point. Hoskins has played primarily left field since his callup so the Phillies can keep Joseph at first base, and while Hoskins is a horrible defender, the Phillies are willing to set that aside while he rakes like this. His ISO is an absurd .456 and he is slashing .298/.424/.754 on just a .250 BABIP. To make things even more interesting, he has walked 23 times and struck out just 26 times, good for a 16.5% BB% and 18.7% K%. That is incredibly encouraging for a 24 year old power hitter. We've seen it become more common now with the allegedly "juiced" baseballs that minor leaguers come up and hit for more power than we expected, but no one could have quite seen this coming. He is obviously a must-start option in all formats for the duration of the season, but he is trending towards being the most overpriced player in 2018 drafts if he keeps this up.
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