Preseason Prep - March 17th, 2018
- Russell just turned 24, yet it seems like he's already being dismissed as a low-AVG, decent power lower-tier SS. Most guys aren't fully formed as hitters until at least 25, and Russell has some other indicators that point to the possibility of sudden improvement. His LD rates have gone from 18 to 21 to 23 percent over his three seasons, yet his BABIP has actually gone down. His hard contact rates have gone from 27 to 29 to 32 percent yet the power numbers remained constant last year from the year prior. His swing strike percentage has come down by 1.1 percent over the past two years as well, so improvement in his weakest area (contact) is evident. I think a breakout for Russell isn't just possible, it's likely....it's merely a question of 2018, 2019, or 2020? He's already a solid player, but I still believe that he will be a top-10 SS, and I'd make sure he was on my team before we get past the first fifteen players taken at the position. I don't think it's a stretch for him to match Javier Baez's production this year, for example.
The Import of The Import -
Shohei Ohtani struggled mightily against the Rockies in his second "A" spring start, allowing 7 runs in 1 1/3 innings. The talent is evident in both the stuff on the mound and the bat speed at the plate, but the results have been very sketchy so far. Combined with the playing time issues, the cultural adjustment, and the different ways that fantasy leagues are handling him, I think that Ohtani is best left in someone else's risk pool in redraft leagues this year, understanding fully well that there is a ton of risk on the upside as well as the downside. My best guess is that you'll see some decent power numbers at the plate but the AVG will be an issue, and that you'll similar things on the pitching side: good power (K numbers) but some issues with allowing runs. If he can handle the mental aspect of things, I think Ohtani will ultimately end up being a star, but it is much more likely to not happen this season than to happen, and I really wouldn't want to spend a pick in the mid-70's on something that could completely blow up.
Everybody Loves Post-Hype Prospects - I do love my post-hype prospects for sure, and Andrew Heaney is absolutely in that mix as SP124 by ADP so far this spring. An afterthought for many right now, Heaney appears to have rediscovered his control this spring (2 BB, 14 K in 11 2/3 IP), and he's missing bats at the same rate that he did last September. If any part of these strikeout gains can be maintained this year, I don't see any reason why Heaney couldn't give you at least close to average SP production (MLB average, not fantasy average), which is usually worthy of consideration in standard leagues and a starting spot in deeper formats. I'd probably place him about fifty spots higher in the SP rankings than his current ADP.
Veteran Acquisition #1 (the lesser) - Normally we're all really excited when players get traded certain places (COL, ARI, NYY for bats, SD, MIA for arms), but since
Brandon Drury is obviously moving from one positive park to another, he's one of the few who shouldn't expect too much of a positive impact heading to the Bronx. The recent Walker acquisition likely shoves him to 3B to start the year, and I view him as the most vulnerable Yankee projected starter as far as playing time goes. That's a problem, as the threats to playing time are myriad. Drury has decent ability as far as both contact and power, but with no speed and little patience at the plate plus an average glove at best, I find it hard to believe that he'll be able to hold the kids off for very long without showing some improvement. There has been talk of changing his swing plane (he hovers around a 50% GB rate) and he's hit well this spring, so there's potential for growth here....he's still just 25. I wouldn't treat him as more than a flyer at the end of the draft unless your league is pretty deep, though.
Veteran Acquisition #2 (the greater) - The depressing part of the, frankly, brilliant
Neil Walker contract (1 year, $4 million) is that we likely have to wait a while to see Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar lock down starting roles...Walker and Brandon Drury are likely to get the lion's share of the playing time at 2B and 3B now. This is huge for the Yanks and Walker (and Walker's fantasy owners) though, as you've got a player that has been increasing both his patience and his FB rate the past several years going to a place that will magnify those gains. Walker ranks 61st in WAR over the past 4 years at a relatively weak position, and now he's going to the best HR park in the majors in a stacked lineup. He should be expected to at least approach his career bests in most offensive categories if he stays healthy, and as such he absolutely should be considered a potential top-10 player at the position.
Underrated is his 11th year? - We all expect regression from
Gio Gonzalez this season: you, me, every projection system that exists, National fans.....everybody. The thing is, it may be a bit overdone. Last year's 16th-ranked SP is coming off the board as SP39 this spring, thanks primarily to continued velocity decline and an xFIP ERA of 4.24. The one thing we may be overlooking is that Gonzalez reincorporated his curveball more heavily last year than he has since 2011. His curve has likely been his best pitch throughout the majority of his career, but for whatever reason it completely lost its effectiveness from 2014-16. He threw it more slowly than he ever has relative to his other pitches last season, and it seemed to increase the effectiveness of his entire repertoire. He also started throwing his change more frequently than he ever had before, and the new combination caused him to induce more soft contact than he had since 2011. I don't think he can put up a sub-3.00 ERA again, but in the #30-#50 area of SP there are probably only 4 names that I prefer, which leads me to believe he's a bit undervalued right now. I would look for him more in the early 30's for starters, putting him right around round 9-10 in 12-team leagues.
Fifth starter fun - The absence of Joe Ross has given AJ Cole the inside track on a rotation spot in Washington this spring, with Tom Milone, Erick Fedde, and Edwin Jackson also in the mix. Cole's control has worsened in each of the past three seasons, and his stuff isn't impressive enough to expect him to miss the amount of bats that he was in the lower minors, so for me he's clear waiver bait. If there's anyone to watch here it's Fedde, a former top-100 prospect that has the best stuff of the group and has been solid this spring so far. His ceiling is that of a mid-rotation starter, something the other three can't offer. Fedde warrants a reserve slot in deeper formats, Cole a possible look in the deepest of leagues, and we all know what the other two guys have to offer.
- Duggar is certainly giving the Giants something to think about this spring, as he's managed 4 homers and 2 steals with a .273 AVG thus far in Arizona. Austin Jackson may still be the front-runner for the job to start the year, but since he's experienced as a 4th OF I wouldn't say the decision has been made yet. Most scouting reports for Duggar have him maxed out at below-average power, but that's not what I see, especially after last year's FB rate increase. I see a player with excellent plate discipline and at least average ability in contact, power, and speed. That sort of a player can certainly be a standard-league asset in fantasy (think, oh let's say, Dexter Fowler) so watch this battle the next 10 days or so with interest. He is absolutely worth a roster spot in the majority of formats if he wins the job.
- How many 20-year old players can come up and provide above-average production in the majors? I think things in the NBA may desensitize us to some of this stuff, but rest assured, it's rather unusual. The adjustments that Albies made to get there are even more exciting, hitting fewer balls on the ground than he ever had in the minors. I doubt he'll ever have above-average power, but with his bat-to-ball ability and speed I don't think it'll matter. I value him as a borderline top-10 2B already, and at age 21 there's likely more improvement to be had. He's currently being drafted 16th among 2B around the middle of round 12, and I would absolutely be willing to grab him prior to that. .290/15/20 is easily in play.
- Suarez seems to be flying under the radar once again this spring, going 24th among 3B in drafting thus far. In fact, he's going 76 spots later than Kyle Seager on average despite outperforming him last year and being 4 years younger. Not only that, but with a LD rate of 24% and a hard contact rate of 34%, you'd expect a lot better BABIP than .309, so I believe there's some potential for a greater AVG as well. I absolutely believe that Suarez (6th in WAR among 3B last year, and yes I know that incorporates fielding and baserunning, but still) should be going multiple rounds earlier than round 17...I'd be perfectly happy with him as my CI in a standard league.
- Flaherty is likely the "next man up" for the Cardinal rotation to open the season, and since no team uses a mere five starters through an entire season, we're very likely to see him in St. Louis. Flaherty has been hampered by a rather hittable fastball during his AAA/MLB time, and he's added more sink on it this spring. The results haven't been consistent, but 20 K's in 13 IP shows more bat-missing ability than he has in the past, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him add some value later this season in DFS and deeper season-long formats. Watch list only for now, but would be roster-worthy in most formats upon a call-up of any substantial length.
- Another excellent candidate for the last spot on your pitching staff is Dinelson Lamet, a guy that needs two things to become a potential ace: control and an offspeed pitch. He's been mixing in a curveball this spring, and the early returns have been decent. Honestly, for a guy with an ERA over 4.00 in a very pitcher-oriented home park, he has every chance of becoming a top-40 SP with his excellent stuff (11.8% SwStrk). I have no problem rostering him in most formats and waiting to see how things go....the upside is enormous.
- With the possible loss of Jharel Cotton for the season to TJ surgery, Andrew Triggs looks even more likely to open the year in the rotation for Oakland than he did before now. Triggs has some solid upside, boasting above-average rates in swinging strikes, BB, and GB percentage. His 4 starts prior to hip surgery were absymal last summer, but before that he actually looked very solid. I think he's an excellent upside play as your last pitcher taken.
- The demotion of Willie Calhoun has left Drew Robinson as the favorite in LF for Texas, at least for the good half of a platoon with Ryan Rua. Robinson isn't a guy that has much said about him, but he's still just 25 and hit 20 homers with 17 steals at AAA as a 23 year old. The AVG is likely to be a significant problem, as there's a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, but a potential 20/10 player should be on our watch list at the very least. Deep league or watch list only for now for those of you willing to punt or overlook the AVG, but any improvement in contact ability would skyrocket his value.
- Depending on your league's size and format Buehler may already be gone, but in most he won't be just yet. There's basically no way that a rotation with Hill, Ryu, Maeda, and Alex Wood will make it through the season without needing reinforcements, and Buehler could be ready before very long. The 23 year old has been hitting 99 down in spring training, has shown the Holy Grail of huge K and GB rates together throughout his brief minor league career, and should be up this year. He will merit a roster spot immediately.
- Chatwood has finally escaped Coors, and for a guy with a full 2-run disparity in his ERA between home and away the past six seasons, he has to be thrilled. I'm not going to forecast Chatwood for that sub-3.20 road ERA for 2018 with the Cubbies, but I think significant improvement is in store. Much of last year's home/road splits were BABIP-related (much of which can be applied to Coors Field, of course), but his GB/FB ratio has been almost 1.0 lower on the road the past few years, so he clearly pitches differently. Last year's improvement in swinging strike rate means almost as much to me in forecasting improvement here, and the massive velocity spike doesn't hurt either. I expect him to be a top-60 SP this season, making him a bit under-drafted (currently SP72) at this point.
- Currently 2.79/5
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Rating: 2.8/5 (2155 votes cast)
Lyle Logan
Mar 16, 18 at 09:10 PM
Forget Cole/Fedde beginning the season in the Washington Rotation... they signed Jeremy Hellickson and he's already thrown a four-inning sim-game today.
And... what a shame the Cardinals are going with re-tread Mikolas over Flaherty!! (who might be their 2nd best SP) I'm tabbing Flaherty to be up on April 28th for what would have been Mikolas' 5th turn.