Andrew Heaney -Angels-SP
Andrew Heaney went 5 IP and gave up 5 ER on 8 H, 1 BB, and 1 K's against the Tigers. Heaney came into the game with a 3.08 ERA over his first 46.2 IP and left with a 3.66 ERA. His underlying skills are very solid with 27% K, 12% swinging strikes, and a 3.68 SIERA. He is likely to see regression in his home run rate (0.77 HR/9) given his career rate of 1.41 HR/9 and the current state of baseball. Even with regression in his HR rate, there is a lot to like about Heaney starting with his strikeout rate. The concern is that he is part of the Angels six-man rotation which is going to limit his innings total, which puts more emphasis on his ratio stats since the counting stats (K, W) are going to suffer. He is likely not the low 3's type of pitcher had been prior to today but he is an above average fantasy starter.
Drew Pomeranz-Red Sox-SP
Drew Pomeranz went 5 IP and gave up 4 ER on 6 H, 2 BB, and 5 K's against the Astros. Pomeranz has really struggled this year. He has a 6.81 ERA and the underlying metrics aren't much better. He has a 4.94 SIERA, 20% K, and 13% BB. The strikeouts are down and the walks are up. This is correlated with a drop in his swinging strike rate from 10% to 7%. He is giving up 35% hard contact which has also resulted in a home run problem (1.69 HR/9). Pomeranz's velocity is down 2 mph, which could be a reason for the struggles. Either way, the Red Sox can't afford to continue to run him out there given his lack of production. He belongs on the waiver wire in every format.
Nick Castellanos was 3-5 with a run scored. His triple slash sits at .332/.376/.514 which is improvement on his breakout 2017 season that saw him finish with 26 HR and 101 RBI with .272 AVG. The underlying skills however look almost identical. The difference is a .401 BABIP this year compared to a .313 last year. He hits the ball hard and makes good contact but the power is down this year in addition to the counting stats so his overall value is being paced by his average. He is a good candidate to sell high on.
Daniel Mengden went 8 IP and gave up 3 ER on 6 H, 2 BB, and 5 K's against the Rays. Mengden is one of the more interesting pitchers from his mustache to his windup not mentioning his hot start to 2018. He has a 2.91 ERA over his first 12 starts. Mengden is having success despite a below average strikeout (16%) and swinging strike rate (9%). He does have excellent control (2% BB) but at some point, his batted ball luck is going to turn. Mengden is supporting a .246 BABIP (.283 career) and 0.81 HR/9 (1.04 HR/9 career). He had similar numbers a year ago and posted a 3.14 ERA but that was on 25% hard contact and not 38% like this year. The lack of missing bats and propentency to give up hard contact is going to come back to bite him but continue to run him out there until that happens.
Lance McCullers Jr.-Astros-SP
Lance McCullers Jr. went 6 IP and gave up 2 ER on 4 H, 2 BB, and 4 K's against the Red Sox. McCullers has produced average results despite excellent underlying skills. He has a 3.89 ERA despite 26% K, 13% SwStr, 56% GB, and 0.85 HR/9. His two biggest issues have been command (10% BB) and not letting his emotions get the best of him. McCullers is an extremely talented pitcher will underlying skills and metrics (3.61 SIERA) that suggest that better times are coming. He gets Seattle next timeout which is a nice matchup for the right-hander.
DFS Value Play: 2B Jonathan Schoop-BAL $3,300 on DraftKings
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