Jameson Taillon went 7 IP and gave up 2 ER on 7 H, 1 BB, and 5 K's against the Indians. On the year Taillon has a 3.73 ERA, 1.22 WHIP with a 3.71 SIERA. His season turned around when he started throwing a slider which he is throwing 20% of the time in June and July with a 17% swinging strike rate. He has a 2.97 ERA since June 1st over 60.2 IP. Overall, Taillon has an attractive skill set with 23% K, 7% BB, 10% SwStr, 50% GB, and 0.97 HR/9. He has evolved as a pitcher and has shown that he can be an above average starter and he is someone to buy for the rest of year.
Jake Arrieta went 6 IP and gave up 2 ER on 5 H, 2 BB, and 6 K's against the Cardinals. Arrieta on the year has a 3.45 ERA which doesn't look bad on the surface but his 4.46 SIERA suggests the underlying skills don't back up what he is doing. The strikeouts are way down for Arrieta from 23% last year to a below average 17% this year. That includes a drop in his swing strike rate as well. He is still getting 54% GB and keeping the ball in the park (0.85 HR/9) but the lack of strikeouts is going to come back and bite him at some point. Arrieta gets ahead in counts and induces a lot of weak contact but from a fantasy perspective, he is reliant on his ratios with the lack of strikeouts which leaves him highly susceptible to batted ball luck.
Gregory Polanco was 0-3 with a walk against the Indians. On the year Polanco is hitting .235 with 18 HR, 53 R, 58 RBI, and 4 SB. The underlying skills are solid for the 26 year-old outfielder. His strikeout rate is manageable at 23% and his walk rate is a career high 12%. Polanco is displaying a career high .266 ISO which is not a fluke considering a career high fly ball rate (51%) and hard hit rate (36%). The concern is the flyball rate has resulted in a low batting average which isn't likely to come up anytime soon. Polanco is on pace for a 25 HR/10 SB season with decent counting stats. He is obviously more valuable to OBP formats but if you forget about the ridiculous expectations put on him, then he is someone to consider for the rest of the year.
Tanner Roark went 8 IP and gave up 0 ER on 3 H, 1 BB, and 11 K's against the Brewers in easily his best start this year. Roark had been following along with the Nationals team in general and been a big disappointment. After today's start, he has a 4.55 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 1.18 HR/9 over 122.2 IP. The underlying skills do not point to repeating today's start given his strikeout rate (20%) and walk rate (9%) are below average. Roark is allowing a career-high 29% hard contact with 23% line drives. He doesn't have the stuff to make hitters swing and miss nor the command to induce weak contact. A return to his 2016 form would be fools gold at this point.
Freddy Peralta went 6 IP and gave up 7 ER on 4 H, 4 BB, and 7 K's against the Nationals. Peralta has been the shot in the arm that the Brewers rotation has needed. He had a 2.65 ERA (3.45 SIERA), 0.96 WHIP, and 0.96 HR/9 prior to today's start which raised his ERA to 3.74. The strikeouts are there with 35% K which is backed up by 13% swinging strikes. The concern is his walk rate at 13% and the fact that he throws primarily fastballs (78%). He is a two-pitch pitcher with his fastball and curve with his changeup being nothing more than a show pitch. His walk rate plus 38% hard contact do give pause for concern but his ability to miss bats gives Peralta big-time upside. Long-term he needs to develop a third pitch but his skills look good the rest of the way.
DraftKings Value Plays: SP Dereck Rodriguez (SFG) $7,900 & OF Alex Verdugo (LAD) $3,400
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