Freddy Peralta went 7 IP and gave up 0 ER on 3 H, 2 BB, and 7 K's against the Reds. Peralta has a 4.02 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP over 69.1 IP. The young right-hander is full of potential and upside from a fantasy perspective. He is striking out 31% of batters with an 11% swinging strike rate. Peralta has plus velocity on his fastball and a curve that has a 2.0 Fangraphs pitch value which means that it has been an above average pitch. The concern the rest of the way and heading into next year is that he relies heavily on his fastball (77%) and curve (20%) which makes it easier for a hitter to sit on his fastball. This has led to a ton of hard contact (40%) which hurts Peralta because he also struggles with control (14%). Men on base and hard contact is a recipe for disaster. Until he figures out his control and/or develops a third pitch Peralta is going to be a high variance pitcher with a lot of strikeouts and blow ups along the way but also starts like today.
Trevor Williams went 6 IP and gave up 1 ER on 2 H, 2 BB, and 4 K's against the Braves. Williams has been pitching extremely well recently with 2 ER or less in seven straight starts. The concern is that is that he only has 20 strikeouts over those seven starts which means that he has had luck in the batted ball category. On the year he has a 3.44 ERA with with a 1.22 WHIP over 136 IP. Despite the nice looking surface stats there is a lot to be concerned about. His advanced metrics point to a 4.97 SIERA which almost a run and a half higher than his ERA. This means that he is likely due regression. This is due to a below average strikeout rate (16%), favorable BABIP (.258), and lack of swing and misses (7% SwStr). It is hard to maintain above average ratios with a lack of strikeouts and average control (8%). Williams would need elite control/command to make his ERA and WHIP justifiable given his lack of strikeouts but he is simply getting lucky with his batted balls.
Jonathan Schoop was 1-4 with a run scored in the win against the Reds. Schoop is hitting .235 with 18 HR, 53 R, 44 RBI, and 0 SB. He is having a disappointing year after a career year last season (.293/32/92/105/1). His strikeout rate is still manageable at 22% but his approach at the plate has led to his struggle. He has tried to hit his way out of his slump with just 3% BB which is not a smart strategy. Schoop's BABIP is lower than normal but his hard contact has fallen from 36% to 27% and his out of zone swing percentage has gone from poor (37%) to really bad at 43%. It's going to be hard for him to return any sort of value without an improvement in his plate skills.
Trevor Richards went 5.1 IP and gave up 2 ER on 3 H, 3 BB, and 9 K's against the Yankees. Richards has a 4.23 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP over 95.2 IP. His strikeout rate is 22% with 10% BB. His swinging strike rate is 10% which suggests that his strikeout rate is real but it is still around league average. Richard's WHIP is the major concern at 1.44. It's mainly due to his poor command in the zone and hard contact (43%). It is a small sample size but he has pitched better in the second half with a 3.23 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 33 IP. The strikeouts are up (27%) and the walks are down (8%) which are encouraging signs. He is worth adding for the rest of the season to see if these changes are going to stick.
Jose Peraza was 2-4 with his 19th SB in the loss to the Brewers. Peraza is hitting .292 with 8 HR, 67 R, 42 RBI, and 19 SB on the year. He is producing like everyone expected a year ago. Peraza will hit for a decent average and steal bases which is getting rarer by the year in terms of fantasy. He also has the potential to score runs if he continues to hit at the top of the Reds lineup. He is trending towards a 10 HR/25 SB season with close to 85 R and a decent batting average. He makes a lot of contact (10% K) but his aggressive approach (5% BB) will make him dependent on batted ball luck for his hits and OBP which matters for stolen bases. Peraza has been hot in August with a .308 AVG but he is 1 for 5 on the base paths which is not good.
DraftKings Value Plays: SP Sean Newcomb (ATL) $7,800 and OF Kyle Schwarber (CHC) $4,000
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