Hi Folks, below is our annual review on the
correlation/ predictability for the statistical categories that many of us use
in our rotisserie leagues.
If you play in a Rotisserie league, our software is designed to give you the
opportunity to favor the more predictable categories in your league.
Instead of each category having an even "1" weighting, it's an opportunity to
play the percentages of predictability, allowing you to give different weights
to each Roto category that are relevant to your league scoring. I'm sure many of
you already know that categories such as Batting Average can fluctuate wildly on
a yearly basis. So wouldn't it make sense to slightly underweight that category
when creating your rankings?
Within the Setup|Edit League Settings section, select the Rotisserie scoring option and check the Advanced option located above the scoring grid. This scoring option will allow you to weigh each Rotisserie category according to your preference. Although most leagues use an equal weighing for each Rotisserie category some leagues do not. Even if your league uses an equal weighing system, it's important to understand that not every statistical category has an equal predictability.
From a predictability standpoint, here is a recent 3 year correlation in forecasting for each of the following player stat categories :
(See more category correlations by clicking
here).
In the statistical term of correlation, the range of correlation ranges from -1 to +1, with 1.00 considered a perfect "fit", the better the fit the more reliable the forecast. A .20 is considered a loose correlation, .4 a good correlation, and .6 a very good fit. Thus we know that there is a higher predictability in forecasting Homeruns, Stolen Bases, Pitcher's Strikeouts, and WHIP. A Category that offers poor predictability year over year includes Batting Average, ERA, and Wins.
Of note when I ran this for the 2019 weights, there was a improvement in the correlation in Runs Scored and Home Runs. On the pitching front, there was a increase in correlation in WHIP and Saves in 2018.
For those who would like to play the percentages, for 2019 we suggest the following weighing within these typical categories.
(See more categories for the Advanced settings by clicking
here,
remember to ONLY USE THE SCORING CATEGORIES THAT YOUR LEAGUE USES!).).
Overall, the tweaking discussed above won't change the rankings dramatically, but you will be be increasing the odds of predictability for your team...and whenever there is an statistical advantage to gain, it's something worth exploiting. - Anthony
Draft
Advisor: bring our winning strategy (Serpentine / Auction)
to your draft. Our player rankings adjust as players are selected, adhering to
the changing dynamics of your draft. After a player is selected/drafted, the
software will display/suggest the best players remaining. Purchase Today!
Christiaan Zaluzec
Mar 8, 19 at 06:42 PM
How would you apply this to a points league in your software? Would you just multiply the points allocated for each category scored by the weight indicated in this article?
Anthony Perri
Mar 8, 19 at 06:42 PM
Yes that would be correct in theory, however you must consider that you are probably already playing in a points league that doesn't weigh each category equally. in other words, HRs (more predictable) are probably more heavily weighed verses a category like Runs.
Kenny lee
Mar 8, 19 at 06:42 PM
Is there a way to have my opponents in a mock draft use my player rankings based on my league settings? In over 20 years, there has rarely been a SP drafted in the top 10 in my league. Because the software drafts my mock draft opponents based on ADP, it frequently has 3-5 SPs off the board in the top 15-20 picks.