Hard hit rate (hard %) measures the percentage of batted balls that are hit "hard". That's a straightforward definition, but what exactly does it mean? For context, it's important to understand a brief history of the metric.
Hard hit rate was first developed by Sports Info Solutions (formerly Baseball Info Solutions) and data dating back to 2002 is publicly available. When it was first developed, analysts from Sports Info Solutions manually categorized every batted ball as being "soft" hit, "medium" hit and "hard" hit, however, the method of recording the statistic became much less subjective in 2010. While the exact formula has not been released, the current method of tracking "hard" hit rate involves an algorithm accounting for batted ball's air time, trajectory, landing spot, etc.
Hard hit rate can be applied to both hitters, as well as pitchers, and the formula stays the same for both. Prior to the stat, we relied primarily on groundball, line drive and flyball splits to track the type of batted ball put into play. Fortunately, hard % allows us to get a more accurate representation of the quality of contact based on the batted ball category. To say that another way, hard % goes beyond simply providing a number of balls that were hit hard in total, the classification is actually dependent on the type of batted ball. This means that a groundball classified as a "hard" hit may actually have a slower exit velocity than a "medium" hit line drive. It's also a possible explanation for why we often see some hitters post elite hard % metrics, yet low power numbers because they hit a lot of ground balls. Hard % as it relates to batted ball types, specifically fly ball %, would have a far greater importance in our ability to predict HR/FB rates than, say, the hard % on his groundballs.
For batters, hard % is an excellent leading indicator for other statistics like HR/FB rate and BABIP, while for pitchers, it can also assist with analysis on HR/FB rate and xFIP among others. In general, hard % is a versatile tool that can be leveraged to help explain why other statististics are above or below the league average. For example, a batter with a HR/FB rate above the league average mark should at least have a hard hit rate about 35.3%, the league average hard hit rate. If not, it's possible the player's HR/FB rate could be over-stated and be difficult to sustain. For pitchers, taking a look at a pitcher's contact rate and strand rates in conjunction with his hard % can paint a better pitcture of how lucky, or unlucky, as pitcher was as it relates to his xFIP or ERA.
Here are the leaders in hard hit rate among all qualified batters in 2018. Pay special attention to how changes in hard hit rate impacted the other statistics off towards the right:
** Note: Players who did not qualify with the necessary plate appearances in a specific period will have their statistics appear as "%N/A"
Here's a look at the players with the lowest hard hit rates among all qualified batters in 2018.
** Note: Players who did not qualify with the necessary plate appearances in a specific period will have their statistics appear as "%N/A"
For pitchers, hard $% can also assist with analysis on HR/FB rate and xFIP among others. In general, hard % is a versatile tool that can be leveraged to help explain why other statististics are above or below the league average. For example taking a look at a pitcher's contact rate and strand rates in conjunction with his hard % can paint a better pitcture of how lucky, or unlucky, as pitcher was as it relates to his xFIP or ERA.
Here are the leaders in hard hit rate allowed among all qualified pitchers in 2018.
Here's a look at the players with the highest hard hit rates allowed among all qualified batters in 2018.
If you'd like to hear more about this topic, catch the Fantistics show on SiriusXM on Sunday March 17th from 5PM-7PM ET as Lou Blasi and I breakdown the players below and begin applying some of these principles:
