Happy Opening Day!
For the second consecutive season, I'm thrilled to welcome you on this special day. Just like last year, I'm treating everyone to a different format for the normal National League player notes. Don't fret, you'll still have your written updates, but to honor Opening Day, I'll be throwing in my bold predictions for the season and some DFS plays to consider.
DraftKings Opening Day Plays:
Anthony Rizzo (CHI) -One of the most intriguing ways to differentiate your lineup in DFS is by swimming upstream and rostering a left-handed batter against a left-handed pitcher. While same side splits ARE REAL and can significantly decrease a player's value, there are some players who don't suffer nearly as much from these matchups, particularly when the pitcher doesn't possess an elite skillset. On Opening Day, Anthony Rizzo (a lefty hitter) takes on Mike Minor (a lefty pitcher). Rizzo has proven to be a formidable bat against lefties, even offering some power (.180 ISO and 114 wRC+ career vs LHP). The Cubs are projected to be one of the highest scoring teams on the slate and Rizzo should bat third for the Cubs. He's a nice way to differentiate your lineup without losing much upside, especially since his $5,600 price tag on DraftKings might scare some people away.
Matt Carpenter (STL) -After a bit of an injury scare last week, Matt Carpenter is good to go for Opening Day and will bat near the top of the lineup against Jhoulys Chacin and the Brewers in Milwaukeee. Carpenter destroyed right-handed pitching in 2018, posting a 145 wRC+ and eye-popping .280 ISO and Chacin has historically struggled to induce soft contact on fly balls to left-handed hitter, giving up hard hit rates of 48%, 42% and 39% each of the last 3 seasons. Carpenter is a nice third base option on DraftKings' early slate at $4,600 in a great hitting environment in what should be a high scoring affair with a projected run total of 8.5.
Jesse Winker (CIN) -While Jameson Taillon is a very tough opponent, Jesse Winker draws a favorable contextual factors on Opening Day by leading off in one of the most favorable hitting environments in Great American Ballpark. Winker is priced just $3,300 on DraftKings and is coming off a spring where 6 of his 9 hits were for extra bases. Winker was very good against right-handed pitchers last season, managing a .379 wOBA and 137 wRC+.
Zack Greinke (LAD) -Greinke is priced well below the top-tier starting pitchers on the day at $8,600, but draws a start in the favorable Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers will likely go heavy left-handed against Greinke, but that actually helps him in the strikeout category as Joe Peterson will most likely lead off and Greinke has minimal handed ness splits, even pitching better against left-handers than right-handlers in 2018. Don't sleep on Greinke as a spend for your second starting pitcher on DraftKings, or even as your top spend.
Michael Waldo's Bold Pre-Season Predictions:
Every year I like to publish my overall thoughts on the spring draft season on the day before Opening Day. Below are a series of tweets I posted yesterday regarding my overall observations of draft season and my "bold" predictions for the upcoming year in fantasy baseball. To read in-depth breakdowns on the players on this this, be sure to subscribe to our in-season manager here. Below is a sample of why Daniel Murphy popped up on my bust list:
Daniel Murphy (COL) -Daniel Murphy was a broken man when he was acquired by the Cubs last August. Thanks to microfracture knee surgery, he could barely move in the field and his offense was suffering, as well. He gave the Cubs a slight spark, but he remained a shell of himself from an offensive perspective. Fast forward 5 months and Murphy is once again going in the top 4 or 5 rounds of fantasy drafts, this time primarily because he's going to play his home games in Colorado. For starters, Murphy hasn't played in 150 games since 2013 and while his contact skills are elite, he's no longer hitting the ball hard on a consistent basis (just a 26% hard hit rate last year!). With little speed and deteriorating batted ball skills, his .308 BABIP from 2018 looks grossly inflated. Nearly the only thing people are banking on is the impact of hitting in Coors for 81 games. Unfortunately, he won't play 162, so now they're banking on roughly 70 games, at best, and with the youth knocking on the door in Colorado, Murphy won't be on a very long leash despite his 2 yr/ $24 million contract.
It's fantasy prediction day! Every year I post my top busts & values by position on the last day of draft season. All ADPs listed are from March 1-March 26 from @TheNFBC. I purposely tried to exclude *obvious* answers due to recent injuries, roster announcements, etc (1/7)
-- Michael Waldo (@MichaelWaldo) March 27, 2019
My busts for pitching (i.e. underperform ADP by >30%):
-- Michael Waldo (@MichaelWaldo) March 27, 2019
SP-Jameson Taillon (56)
SP-James Paxton (54)
SP-Zack Greinke (66)
SP-Charlie Morton (118)
SP-Nick Pivetta (143)
RP-Cody Allen (160)
RP-David Robertson (173)
RP-Sean Doolittle (112)
RP-Wade Davis (126)
(2/7)
My busts for offense (i.e. underperform ADP by >30%)
-- Michael Waldo (@MichaelWaldo) March 27, 2019
C-Willson Contreras (126)
1B-Jesus Aguilar (83)
2B-Daniel Murphy (61)
3B-Jose Ramirez (3)
SS-Javy Baez(17)
OF-Mitch Haniger(92)
OF-Andrew Benintendi(31)
OF-Starling Marte(38)
OF-Eddie Rosario(80)
OF-Michael Conforto(99)
(3/7)
My surprises for pitching (i.e. outperform ADP by >20%) ADP since 3/1 listed:
-- Michael Waldo (@MichaelWaldo) March 27, 2019
SP-Gerrit Cole (22)
SP-Yu Darvish (135)
SP-Jake Arrieta (204)
SP-Brandon Woodruff (305)
SP-Alex Reyes (260)
RP-Felipe Vazquez (89)
RP-Ken Giles (145)
RP-Trevor May (208)
RP-Sergio Romo (412)
(4/7)
My surprises for offense (outperform ADP by >20%)
-- Michael Waldo (@MichaelWaldo) March 27, 2019
C-Daulton Varsho (750)
1B-Peter Alonso (214)
2B-Yoan Moncada (150)
3B-Rafael Devers (134)
SS-Jorge Polanco (217)
OF-Marcell Ozuna (84)
OF-Andrew McCutchen (128)
OF-Max Kepler (214)
OF-Greg Allen (339)
OF-Manny Margot(325)
(5/7)
