Justin Smoak (1B - TOR) - Smoak is a strong buy low candidate for me, as he is hitting just 220/376/400 despite showing some extremely strong underlying stats. His hard contact rate has skyrocketed to 52.3% (and his exit velo is 36th) even before Wednesday's double and homer, his chase rate has dropped 3.5% from last year's career best, and his contact rate has nudged above 80% for the first time in his lengthy career. I like his $3900 price tag on Thursday even against a heavy GB pitcher in Ryan Weber, and I expect much better surface stats from him going forward.
Asdrubal Cabrera (3B - TEX) - I'm a lot more optimistic about Cabrera than his stat line would lead you to believe, as not only is he posting a career high in ISO (.230, and likely to continue because of the favorable ballpark move for him), but he's been one of the more unlucky players in baseball thus far via BABIP. Despite maintaining a hard contact rate and LD rate that are above average for him, his BABIP is about 90 points below his normal level. Add in the best chase rate since 2010 and a much lower swinging strike rate, and I expect to see Cabrera's AVG climb quite a bit over the next month or two while the increased power numbers should remain. I do believe that he will be a viable option in most formats the rest of the way.
Avisail Garcia (OF - TB) - Garcia homered again on Wednesday, giving him 4 HRs and a double in the past ten games. Garcia is continuing a 5-year trend of increasing his hard contact rate, coming in at just over 42% so far this year, but it continues to come at the cost of making contact in general, as his swinging strike% has amazingly gone over 20. When combined with a chase rate over 40%, I can't envision the sort of AVG that he showed in 2017 and to a lesser extent this year being sustainable...I think it much more likely that he's going to be a power-only bat, which of course grow on trees right now. I'm selling high(ish) here.
Jorge Soler (OF - KC) - Soler hit his 11th homer on Wednesday, one away from his career best already in his age 27 season. Unfortunately, there's been little to no progress inn terms of making contact, so Soler is a bit of a one-trick pony, and that trick is a fairly common one. The thing that gives me a bit of hope here is that Soler is historically a poor cold weather player, and his .284 AVG thus far in May lends itself to some optimism that he can provide standard league value the rest of the way. I don't mind him as a lower-floor option for your last OF spot, as he easily could hit 30 HR this year.
Oscar Mercado (OF - CLE) - Mercado's 4-game hitting streak was snapped on Wednesday but he did get a bit of good news, as Carlos Gonzalez was designated for assignment. That should cement his everyday OF status for the near-term (and likely the long-term as well), and while Mercado isn't likely to become a star, the speed that he should provide could be rather valuable. He's average to average-plus in terms of contact with below average power, but the above average speed should enable him to pick up 15-20 steals annually, making him a reasonable lower-end option in the OF.
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