Fantasy Baseball 2010

2010 Preseason Prep - March 12, 2010

2010-03-12T08:09:21Z

Dodgers #5 starter-As of now, the front-runner here has to be Eric Stults. Stults is left-handed, has two big league shutouts on his resume, is out of options, and while it’s early, he’s looked good in camp (two scoreless innings) while James McDonald (hit hard again Thursday) and Charlie Haeger have struggled and Scott Elbert is already nursing a sore shoulder. Stults has 145 big league innings under his belt with a 6.1 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 to go with a 4.85 ERA. The stuff is probably there for him to be a serviceable No. 5 starter, but as many shutouts as he spins, there are going to be more of these type of lines: 4-6-6-6-4-2. Dodgers catcher-You know the news about Russell Martin’s groin injury and 4-to-6 week timeframe, but Martin maintains that he still hopes to be ready by Opening Day. That’s probably pushing it considering even if the groin is 100% by early April, Martin would still need time to get his timing down. Really though, the Dodgers certainly aren’t going to push him and will likely keep him out the first couple weeks or so of the regular season. A.J. Ellis will probably see 70% or so of the catcher at-bats with ancient Brad Ausmus picking up the remaining 30%. Ellis is a career .277/.397/.374 minor league hitter in close to 1,500 at-bats. He’ll turn 29 in April, so he’s no spring chicken from a baseball perspective. The good is clear: .397 OBP, 1.1 EYE, 83% CT%. The bad is equally glaring: sub-.100 ISO and no speed. Ellis also managed to not homer at all last season in Triple-A (283 at-bats), so while he could be a decent stop-gap for the Dodgers, he’s not helping your fantasy team. Ellis was 2-for-4 in Wednesday’s game. Arizona utility infielder – Tony Abreu may be competing with Ryan Roberts and Rusty Ryan for a pair of backup infield slots. Abreu, who came to the Dbacks in the Jon Garland deal last year, led off on Wednesday and went 3-for-4, falling just a double short of the cycle. Abreu is batting a robust .471 so far this spring, and with the news that Abreu will see time at shortstop this spring, it appears he’s being positioned to make the team as a super-utility role. Arizona #4 and #5 starters – The favorites: Ian Kennedy and Billy Buckner. Kennedy appears to be a lock or one of the spots barring a spring meltdown, and Buckner is the early favorite for the other. Buckner though has allowed four runs over five innings (and two home runs) in his spring to date, though a 7:1 K:BB is far more encouraging. Should Buckner falter or Brandon Webb be unavailable for Opening Day, Kevin Mulvey is likely the current de facto No. 6 starter after allowing no runs on one hit over two innings in his first spring outing. San Francisco RF - This one is still Nate Schierholz’s to lose, though we were a bit worried after he fouled a ball off his knee over the weekend. Schierholz was reportedly in considerable pain, but he was back in the lineup Wednesday, going 1-for-3 with a walk. Schierholz is a career .284/.316/.415 hitter in 472 at-bats, though a 0.25 EYE and just six career home runs doesn’t exactly look like starting outfielder material. For some reason, the Giants don’t seem all that interested in giving Fred Lewis (.277/.355/.420 in 931 at-bats) a real opportunity, but there’s still time. San Francisco No. 5 Starter - The Giants are probably still hoping that Madison Bumgarner is the guy here, but after Bumgarner was clocked at 87-89 mph in his last outing, there are still lingering concerns over his diminished velocity. Bumgarner went from being baseball’s top pitching prospect with mid 90s heat to a guy who sat in the 88-90 range over the second half of last year. The ERA was still very good in Double-A (1.93) but his K/9 cratered to 5.8. Some have attributed the diminished velocity to Bumgarner to throwing too much on the side, but there could also be a lingering injury issue. We just don’t know. Most likely Todd Wellemeyer (3 IP, 1 ER Monday) gets the job out of spring training, with Bumgarner accruing some Triple-A time initially. Keep in mind, the guy is still just 20. Grady Sizemore (OF-CLE) – Sizemore isn’t likely to be too devalued outside of shallow, less “hard-core” fantasy leagues, but there’s probably still some value to be had in many leagues for a guy coming off a disappointing .248/.343/.445 season. Sizemore though was bothered by elbow and abdominal injuries all season, so we’ll give him a mulligan for that one. There was no real degradation in his plate discipline, as his 0.65 EYE, 12% BB%, and 79% CT% were well within Sizemore’s career norms. His BABIP was a bit low at .276, so with that and 100% healthy, I’d set the over/under on BA at about .272. Even factoring in fewer at-bats, Sizemore’s SBs were way down (13) last year, but he should show some improvement there, perhaps into the 25 range as he’ll have the patient Shin-Soo Choo batting behind him in the order (Cabrera, Sizemore, Choo 1-2-3). Gerald Laird (C-DET) – Normally I’m as skeptical of these “new batting stance / pitching arm slot” reports as I am of the “best shape of his life” stories, but Laird’s new stance seems to be paying off. The Detroit catcher slugged a grand slam off Joba Chamberlain on Wednesday and is now batting .333 with a pair of homers in four games this spring. Laird batted a respectable .276/.329/.398 with the Rangers in 2008 before slumping to .225/.306/.320 last year, but early results suggest a mini-rebound at least. Laird did see a spike in his EYE from 0.37 to 0.59 last year and his .261 BABIP fell 36 points shy of his career mark Ben Sheets (SP-OAK) - With Sheets right now, it's probably more about health than results, but regardless, we have to mention his line from Wednesday's game - 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 BB, 0 K. This coming after a debut in which he allowed two runs (one earned) in 1.2 innings leaves Sheets with an uninspiring 12.46 ERA. Sheets was given a one year $10 million deal last month, a move likely driven not only off a desire to try and compete for the AL West title, but as a potentially valuable July trade chip for Billy Beane. Sheets is likely no longer an elite starter even given a clean bill of health, as his K/9 rates in his last two seasons prior to missing 2009 were far from inspiring at 6.8 and 7.2. He still has great command (I think?) with a 2.0 career BB/9, but I'll take bets on a 130 over/under on innings pitched. Chris Coghlan (OF-FLA) - Batting leadoff Wednesday, Coghlan was 2-for-3 with a double, triple, and four RBI, leaving him at .278 so far this spring. He's obviously not competing for a starting job coming off his ROY performance last year, and at 24, there's a possibility he takes that next step in 2010. We'd of course love to see more than nine home runs and a .139 ISO, but as we know, power is often the last tool to develop. There's 15-20 homer potential here somewhere, and after a strong 0.69 EYE last year and 1+ rates at times in the minors, we know the plate discipline is more than adequate. Factor in that Coghlan, while not a burner by any means, has a 41 stolen base season (2008) in the minors to his credit, and you have a very capable fantasy target, particularly if he can eventually bump Dan Uggla to third base (or perhaps off the roster via trade). David Huff (SP-CLE) - Huff gave up one run over three innings Wednesday and is looking like a favorite for one of the many rotation spots up for grabs in Cleveland. At first glance, Huff's inability to miss more than a few bats (4.6 K/9) a year ago puts the dreaded Jeremy Sowers label on the left-hander, but look back a year at his 2008 effort in the minor leagues: 143:29 K:BB in 146.2 innings. He's a middle-of-the-rotation guy at best, but those guys have real value in deeper leagues, so continue to monitor Huff's progress this spring. He's a former first round draft pick if that means anything to you. Francisco Liriano (SP-MIN) - Assuming Joe Nathan does end up undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Twins will be in need of a new closer. Candidates thought to be in the mix are Jon Rauch and Matt Guerrier, but one intriguing option that may be considered is trying Liriano in the role and signing a free agent starting pitcher (guys like Jarrod Washburn, John Smoltz, Pedro, and Braden Looper are still out there). Nathan and Liriano of course both came over from the Giants in the long-ago A.J. Pierzynski deal. Liriano is living proof that not all pitchers are the same after Tommy John surgery. Liriano has been inconsistent at best the last two years, posting a 5.80 ERA in 2009 and flashing his talent in spurts, but if he's to be a starter in Minnesota this year, he'll have to win the No. 5 starter job. Encouragingly, Liriano did post a solid 8.0 K/9 last year but a 4.3 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9 did serious damage to the ERA. Liriano also allowed a .945 OPS with runners on base, but maybe closer is the best thing for his talent right now. Intriguing. Stephen Drew (SS-ARI) - An intereseting note on Stephen Drew Wednesday, the Arizona shortstop who dropped 88 points of OPS last year compared to 2008. Drew attributed some of his struggles to his wife's poor health last season, though as far as we know now, she's improved. It's easy to not think about the human side of multi-millionaire athletes, but they are human just like us and while the money surely helps make things easier, they also worry about non-sports issues. Drew is 5-for-10 so far this spring and at 27, he's just entering his prime. I'll be targeting him in my drafts this year, particularly considering he got a bit unlucky on flyballs last year (6% HR/F rate) and his EYE actually improved from 0.38 to 0.56 over 2008. Nick Hundley (C-SD) - If you're a Nick Hundley fan/owner, there doesn't appear to be much to worry about in terms of competition from Yorvit Torrealba. The latter has the experience advantage, and he did hit .291 last year, but with just two homers in 213 at-bats in Colorado, it was a pretty empty .291. Hundley meanwhile notched his first hit of the spring Wednesday and is 1-for-6 as he works his way back from November sports hernia surgery. Hundley hit just .238 in 256 at-bats for the Padres last year due in large part to a 70% CT%, but he also hit eight home runs and he's five years younger than his backup. Look for Hundley to garner perhaps 375 at-bats to Torrealba's 250. Will Venable (OF-SD) - Venable is part of a rather crowded outfield situation in San Diego, but he's certainly been making a case for being a full-timer this season. Wednesday, Venable hit his first homer of the spring, this one impressively off Yovani Gallardo. Venable is batting .308 so far as he competes with the likes of Kyle Blanks, Tony Gwynn Jr., Scott Hairston, and Aaron Cunningham. Venable batted a so-so .256/.323/.440, but positives included a .184 ISO and a decent enough 8% BB%. On the flip side, a 70% CT% is the big negative, though that number was in the 77-84% range in the minor leagues. He's also a better than average defender, something that should at least net him #4 OF status, but if his bat stays hot, he'll have a shot at 500 at-bats. Aaron Poreda (SP-SD) - Poreda may have punched his ticket to Triple-A Wednesday, surrendering seven runs (six earned) without recording an out, taking his ERA from 0.00 to a nice 27.00 - ah small sample sizes. Poreda struggled mightily last year command-wise, walking 88 batters in just 120.1 innings between the minors and big leauges. He's still just 23, big, and left-handed, so no reason to panic, but we're not looking at a big fantasy impact this season. Derek Holland (SP-TEX) – Perhaps he was still nursing that sore knee, but Holland allowed four runs and recorded just one out during Thursday’s game, putting his assumed rotation spot assumedly in jeopardy. Holland, still just 23, was promoted to the Rangers last year after compiling just 30 innings above High Class-A ball before settling in Texas where he posted a 6.12 ERA in 33 appearances (21 starts). There were however some positive signs, including a 7.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. Of course what really hurt Holland was the 1.7 HR/9, something that if things don’t turn around quickly, he’ll be working on in Triple-A not Texas come April. Jose Reyes (SS-NYM) - Joe covered Reyes’ “overactive thyroid” on Wednesday and now we’re hearing 2-to-8 weeks. That’s a pretty large span of time, and for now we’ll recommend counting on being without Reyes’ services for all of April. A return earlier than that is a bonus. Reyes’ fantasy value is starting to fall nearly as fast as that of Joe Nathan given the myriad of injuries, declining power, new cavernous ballpark, and uncertain stolen base upside.

2010 Preseason Player Prep - March 11, 2010

2010-03-11T08:00:00Z

Cleveland Indians Rotation: Do the Indians have one starter worthy of a roster spot in a 10-team fantasy baseball league? The fact that a post-Tommy John surgery Jake Westbrook or the horrendously wild Fausto Carmona could potentially battle for the Opening Day starter spot seems to indicate a “no” to the proposed question. However, there is hope in the form of Justin Masterson. The soon-to-be 25 year old has shown promise through his first 217 big league innings, posting an 8.1 K/9 and 3.97 ERA. He needs to lower his BB/9 rate which was 4.18 in 2009, but Fantistics believes 2010 will be a productive year for the right hander as he delivers a solid 173 Ks and decent-enough 4.23 ERA. As for Westbrook, assuming he returns to full strength following surgery, it’s fairly easy to predict his contributions to the Indians and your fantasy team based on past performance – an ERA in the low-to-mid 4.00s, about a five K/9, and a WHIP hovering around 1.30. Westbrook works his sinker down in the zone to induce groundballs (59.5% career GB%) and doesn’t have an overpowering fastball (90.5 MPH career average) so his strike out numbers are unlikely to rise. Since his 2007 season, Carmona recorded a 5.44 ERA in 2008 and pitched so poorly to begin 2009 that Cleveland eventually sent him all the way down to Rookie ball. He’s always been a low strikeout, high walk guy with a career K/9 of 5.58 and BB/9 of 3.90. For Carmona to succeed, he absolutely must control his bread-and-butter pitch – the sinking fastball. By throwing the sinker for 75% of his pitches, Carmona leaves little room for error. If the sinker’s not working on a particular night, he has no backup pitch on which to rely. Seattle Mariners First Base: While neither Casey Kotchman or Ryan Garko will be mistaken for an above average first baseman in the American League this season, Seattle General Manager Jack Zduriencik believes their two-man platoon will provide more than enough production for the Mariners offense. As for your fantasy team, you probably won’t be in contention for a playoff birth relying on either of these players for your first base needs. Acquired from the Red Sox for Bill Hall and a minor leaguer this past offseason, Kotchman produced a promising .372 on-base percentage, 11 homers and 68 RBI in his first full big league season with Anaheim in 2007. But since being traded to Atlanta and then Boston during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, the former 13th overall pick hit just nine homers and 27 doubles in 606 at-bats while recording a paltry 195 total bases. In 2009, Kotchman actually improved his line drive percentage (to 19.1% from 17.8% in ’08), but witnessed his HR/FB% drop by an alarming 2.8% (from 9.7% to 6.9%). Worse yet, Kotchman led all major league first baseman by hitting a groundball in 51.4% of his at-bats. He’ll primarily start against right-handers in this platoon, but posts a meager .742 OPS against those pitchers in his career. Fantistics believes Kotchman will find part of his lost power stroke by posting 14 home runs and tallying 199 total bases in 453 at bats. Garko signed for just $550,000 and while he did manage to produce 90 RBI in 2007, don’t fall for that trap. In reality, he’s only a part-time role player who’s posted a solid career OPS of .887 against southpaws but just .755 against righties. Garko’s key indicators are trending the wrong way as he chased a career high 27.6% outside the strike zone and hit fly balls in a career-low 39.5% of his at-bats in 2009. To be fair, Garko’s 2009 season slash line of .268/.344/.421 was hindered by a little bad luck as his BABIP was a career-low .280. Fantistics expects Garko to post 14 home runs and a .295 batting average in just 340 at-bats in 2010 – basically similar numbers to Kotchman in about 100 fewer chances. Cleveland Indians Catcher: Barring injury or an unforeseen circumstance, youngster Carlos Santana will be behind the dish for Cleveland at some point during the 2010 season. What should Santana owners expect from the switch hitting backstop? After two undistinguished seasons in Rookie and A ball for the Dodgers in 2006 and 2007, Santana had a breakthrough 2008 season between his time in High A ball for the Dodgers and Indians. In 455 at-bats, Santana crushed 20 home runs, drove in 115 and walked 89 times. The Tribe promoted Santana to AA at the beginning of last season and he picked up where he left off in 2008 by posting slash stats of .290/.413/.530 with 23 HR, 97 RBI, and 1.08 BB/K ratio. The switch hitter is widely-regarded as the No. 1 prospect in a solid Indians farm system and, depending on how well he handles AAA, could see the big leagues some time during the first half of the 2010 season. If he does, you can expect a Victor Martinez-type of player – good batting average, high on-base percentage, and excellent power. Those in keeper leagues should target Santana as a long-term solution to their catching needs. In the meantime, the Indians have to enlist someone to play catcher and that leaves us with the unappealing choice between prospect Lou Marson and career backup and former Twin Mike Redmond. In the minors, Marson was known more for his ability to hit singles and get on-base rather than his power. In other words, he’s a very poor man’s version of Jason Kendall and not worth a spot on your roster. As for Redmond, you don’t want any part of him on your roster. San Diego Padres Third Base: When San Diego sent Kevin Kouzmanoff to Oakland in a four-player trade on January 16th, Chase Headley’s fantasy baseball owners rejoiced. With third base now vacant, Headley will move back to his natural position and become (potentially) fantasy relevant in 2010. The 25 year old Headley showed promising plate discipline improvements last season by lowering his strikeout rate (from 28.3% to 21.7%) and raising his walk rate (from 8.2% to 10.1%). Unfortunately the improved patience didn’t translate into a power surge as Headley recorded just a .131 ISO, unsightly .392 slugging %, and cracked only 12 home runs. Despite those unimpressive totals, there are two reasons to keep an eye on Headley in 2010. First, by moving from outfield to third, Headley does not need to produce nearly as much to have value. There aren’t too many good options at the hot corner, so if Headley is decent this season, he’ll warrant a spot on a fantasy roster. Second, Headley’s 2009 second half was actually quite impressive. After hitting just .232/.308/.366 in the first half, Headley posted .293/.377/.421 marks after the All-Star break. He certainly didn’t confuse anyone for Mike Schmidt, but anytime a young player makes that type of jump during a season, you hope something’s clicked. Headley owners could also maximize the third baseman’s value by playing him in a strict platoon, based on his home-road splits. While playing at Petco, which lowered run scoring by 26% in 2009, Headley had a David Eckstein-esque .651 OPS. But in away games, Headley improved his OPS to a respectable .803. San Diego Padres Bullpen: While much of the focus this offseason in San Diego has involved the potential trade of slugging first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, fantasy owners in need of saves should keep an eye on the Padres other star veteran. Fresh off signing a one year, $4 million contract to avoid arbitration, Heath Bell looks to build on an outstanding 2009 season that saw the 32-year old save 42 games, post a 2.71 ERA a 1.12 WHIP and improve upon a number of key indicators. During the past three seasons, Bell has been one of the elite relievers in baseball, and he may be getting better. In 2009, Bell recorded a career-best 10.21 K/9, while lowering his walk rate from 3.23 to 3.10 and HR/FB rate to a miniscule 0.39. He also induced more groundballs (48.0% up from 45%) and fewer line drives (17.5% from 19.7%) despite a small uptick in BABIP from .291 to .303. Unfortunately for Padres fans, having a premier closer on a small market team isn’t the best allocation of resources, which means it’s likely Bell finishes 2010 wearing a different uniform. Enter Mike Adams. Fantasy owners in deep leagues should know Adams name from last season, when he posted a ridiculous 0.73 ERA and 0.59 WHIP in 37 innings. After not pitching in the majors in 2007, Adams re-emerged with the Padres in 2008 to notch a 10.19 K/9 and held opposing batters to just a .210 average. Adams bested those numbers last season by increasing his K/9 to 10.85 and decreasing opponents’ batting average to just .118. On Fantistics K/I rating scale, Adams notched an impressive 96 on a scale of 100. Our projections for Adams recognize his small sample size from last season but still predict a very strong 2010 with the righty recording a 2.61 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 60 Ks. Aside from Adams, keep an eye on right-hander Luke Gregerson. The former Cardinals product tallied impressive numbers in his first season, striking out 93 in 75 innings to go along with a 2.50 FIP. While Gregerson walked a few too many (3.72 BB/9), he thrived despite a .332 BABIP. We predict Gregerson to tally another ERA in the low 3s (3.37) and strike out 87 in 74 innings of work. While we predict Bell to save close to 40 games in 2010 and Adams and Gregerson just 3 and 4 respectively, the value of all three pitchers will change drastically if Bell gets dealt. Bell should still be one of the first closers off the board in your draft or auction, but be aware that there’s always the chance he becomes an 8th-inning guy on his new team. As the trade deadline nears, consider stashing away Adams or Gregerson on your bench or in a relief pitcher spot. Both should provide lots of strike outs and a low ERA/WHIP while possibly adding to your team’s saves total by season’s end. Seattle Mariners Bullpen: Seattle’s David Aardsma was a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners in 2009, recording 38 saves, striking out 80 and providing a 2.52 ERA. However, several key indicators point to a regression – perhaps significant – for Aardsma in 2010. Always a power pitcher, Aardsma recorded a career-best 10.09 K/9 rate in 2009, but induced drastically fewer groundballs (44% in ’08 to 25.3% in ’09), allowed significantly more flyballs (38% in ’08 to 53% in ’09) and witnessed his line drive % increase from 17.9% to 20.8%. Most alarming, Aardsma enjoyed a good deal of luck by posting a .271 BABIP compared to .338 in 2008. Our software doesn’t seem as concerned as I am about Aardsma’s peripheral stats, penciling in the reliever for 34 saves, 74 Ks, and a slightly higher 2.83 ERA. If Aardsma does struggle, Mark Lowe and Brandon League would likely be the first candidates to step into Seattle’s closer’s role. After struggling in 2007 and 2008, Lowe enjoyed a career-best 2009 campaign as the right-hander posted a 3.60 FIP and 1.25 WHIP in 80 innings. Lowe was successful despite tallying career-lows in his K/9 rate (7.76), GB/FB rate (0.97) and FB% (40.1%), although he did decrease his BB/9 to 3.26 from 4.81 in 2008. It’s always dangerous to trust a pitcher with a decreasing strike out and groundball rate, so be cautious when deciding to add Lowe to your roster, even if he does become the closer. Unlike Lowe, League didn’t enjoy an impressive season in 2009, at least according to the basic pitching stats. The former Blue Jay posted an ugly 4.58 ERA in 67 innings, but increased his K/9 rate to a career-best 9.16 and lowered his BB/9 rate from 4.09 in ’08 to 2.53 ’09. Additionally, League’s FIP was a full run (3.58) below his actual ERA, partly thanks to a substantial increase in his BABIP (from .271 in ’08 to .322 in ’09). If the Seattle closer job opens, I consider League the dark horse since he has better peripheral stats compared to Lowe and should expect his BABIP to regress more towards the mean in 2010. Jason Frasor (TOR) - How nice it is to be wanted. Frasor still needs to beat out Kevin Gregg and Scott Downs for the closer’s job in Toronto, but reports say the Twins are targeting the right-hander to possibly replace the injured Joe Nathan. The 31-year old is accustomed to taking over for an injured closer -- he picked up 11 saves after Downs was lost to injury at the end of last season. After posting a 2.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 2009, you can expect Frasor to find some saves in 2010, either as the closer coming out of Toronto’s camp, taking over if Gregg or Downs falter, or as the Twins’ ninth inning guy. Definitely a late round value pick for your team’s bullpen. Albert Pujols (STL) - ‘El Hombre’ is dealing with a self-proclaimed “weak” back after being scratched from yesterday’s lineup and isn’t expected to return for another few games. Can’t blame the Cardinals for taking a conservative approach with the world’s best hitter. There’s no indication that Pujols will have any issues moving forward, so feel free to draft him at No. 1 as you would. The good news is that Pujols says his tender elbow feels stronger than last season when he hit 47 home runs and drove in 116. Good luck, National League pitchers. Brian Roberts (BAL) - First a herniated disc, now severe stomach discomfort. It certainly hasn’t been a pleasant start to 2010 for the Orioles’ second baseman. Roberts will be re-evaluated Thursday before continuing his rehab and he hopes to be ready by Opening Day. I’m no doctor but swinging a baseball bat hundreds of times every day can’t be good for an injured back. We predict 27 steals, 102 runs and 17 HRs for Roberts, so he’s still a top second base option. Just keep a close eye on his medical progress throughout spring training. Dan Uggla (FLA) - Uggla went 2-for-3 against the Astros on Wednesday including his first spring training home run. Every year it seems fantasy owners get scared to draft Uggla because of that unsightly batting average (career .257 hitter), but for the past three season the Marlins’ second baseman has popped 30+ HRs and 88+ RBI. In fact, Uggla was even a bit unlucky last year when his BABIP dropped to a career-low .277 yet he still maintained a high ISO of .216. Brett Gardner (NY) - The Yankees’ speedster scored two runs and recorded a hit on Wednesday, but the big news was that he also drew a walk. While you can expect solid steal numbers from Gardner, he lacks plate discipline (.325 career OBP%, 0.65 EYE) and doesn’t hit for enough power or production to help you with HRs, batting average or RBI. Until Gardner improves his OBP, he will continue to be a one-trick pony and fringe fantasy outfielder at best. Grady Sizemore (CLE) - Grady’s Ladies will sleep easy tonight as Sizemore cracked his first spring training home run, a grand slam, and finished 2-for-2 with four RBI. After injuries cost Sizemore much of his production in 2009, you can expect the Cleveland centerfielder to bounce back nicely this season. Sizemore’s 2006-2008 season were extremely consistent as he compiled an OBP between .374 and .390, hit between 24-33 HRS, and collected more than 170 hits. Entering his age-27 season, Sizemore is healthy, in his prime, and a great bet to garner Comeback Player of the Year consideration by season’s end. Luke Scott (BAL) - Perhaps he’s still fuming from not being allowed to bring his guns to the Orioles clubhouse, but Scott collected two of Baltimore’s three RBI on Wednesday. While Scott turns 32 this season, he could be a deep sleeper, especially in AL-only leagues. The Orioles offense should be better in 2010 with Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, and Nolan Reimold all a year older and Miguel Tejada perhaps recapturing some of that old magic. With back-back 23+ HR seasons, it seems reasonable for Scott to smash 25 HR and pick up 80 RBI in 2010. Jonathan Sanchez (SF) - Sanchez pitched excellent on Wednesday, striking out five in three innings while allowing three hits and, most importantly, no walks. With a career BB/9 of 4.7, Sanchez needs to harness his stuff and throw more strikes. If he can cut his walk rate, you’re looking at a very intriguing pitcher with outstanding strikeout potential (9.3 career K/9). If you’re searching for a late round SP, Sanchez could pay big dividends. Carlos Zambrano (CHC) - El Toro was El Stinko on Wednesday, yielding five ER and six hits in just three innings against the Giants. As he enters his age-29 season, Zambrano isn’t the same guy who in 2006 posted a 3.41 ERA and struck out 210 batters. He should still keep the ERA in the high 3s, but his total strikeouts are down because he hasn’t stayed healthy enough to pitch 200 innings in a season the past three years. Bottom line: he’s a solid No. 3 starter with a low ceiling. Matt Holliday (STL) - First Pujols and then Holliday. The entire city of St. Louis must be in a state of emergency. In reality, the Cardinals once again played the caution card and allowed their other big slugger an extra day to rest his sore rib cage. It’s nothing major and the left fielder should be back in action soon. Holliday likely won’t slug over .600 in 2010 like he did in 63 games with St. Louis last season, but based off past performance, he’s a very safe bet for 25 HRs, 100 RBI, .310 batting average, and double digit steals. ]]>

2010 Preseason Prep - March 10, 2010

2010-03-10T12:49:49Z

March 10, 2010 - Fantistics Preseason Notes

New York Yankees

1.The 5th Spot - Joba Chamberlain vs Phil Hughes - One of the biggest question marks for the Yankees heading into spring training is who will earn that last spot in the rotation. Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes are the expected favorites to win the job. After all, fans and fantasy owners been suffering for three years with the "Joba Rules" that were supposed to protect him for future use as a starter. And we all know the numerous trades that were declined by the Yankee front office to protect Phil Hughes and groom him to be the next Yankee ace. But while both are the favorites to win the position (with Hughes being the favorite), there are grumblings through the Yankee organization that both may end up in the bullpen as setup men and the temporary fix will be Alfredo Aceves, Chad Gaudin, or Sergio Mitre. Those three have little fantasy value (AL-only at best for draft purposes) although I do think Gaudin will get the most starts from that group. For draft day strategy, I'd let someone else take the risk here. This could be another long and frustrating season of watching Hughes and Joba bounce around between starter and reliever.

2. A New DH / #2 Hole - Nick Johnson (DH / 1B - New York Yankees) - Johnson makes his 2nd trip to the Bronx in 2010 and made a big splash yesterday with two home runs. The lefty hitting Johnson will prove to be a nice fit with the short Yankee Stadium porch and a good replacement for Hideki Matsui, who signed with the LA Angels in the off season. It feels like Johnson has been around forever, but he's only 31. Keeping him off the DL and out of the trainer room will always big Johnson's biggest challenge. The most games he has played in a single season is 147 with the Nationals in 2006 followed by no games in 2007 and just 38 in 2008. He managed to play 133 after being traded from Washington to Florida in 2009. For note, he has already had a few minor back issues to begin to spring training. But if Johnson can stay healthy, he may be a nice late-round sleeper for power and OBP. He has a career .402 OBP and a HR/AB rate of 28.5. That power rate isn't that impressive, but I would bet on an improvement hitting with Yankee-lineup protection in a favorable lefty-hitting stadium. He'll also see a ton of run scoring opportunities being slated for the #2 spot in the lineup (for now).

Chicago White Sox

1. A New Look at Second Base - Gordon Beckham (2B - Chicago White Sox) - We've known this news for awhile, but its worth the reminder that Gordon Beckham will have both 3B and 2B eligibility during the 2010 season. He will make the move from the hot corner to second base, turning the DP with Alexei Ramirez on the south side of Chicago. Beckham was called-up mid-season last year and played in 103 games for the Sox, batting .270 with a .341 OBP, 14 HR, 63 RBI, and a BB/K of 0.63. That's good for an OPS of .802 and an FPI of 0.62. Let's not minimize that plate discipline with such limited big league service. In just 376 AB, a 0.63 FPI is really good and should project him to settle-in in 2010. We have him projected to show an overall improvement in his 2nd year of service (no sophomore slump here!) with a forecasted of 0.66 FPI, 23 HR and 92 RBI.

2. A New Look in the Outfield - Juan Pierre (OF - Chicago White Sox) - Juan Pierre isn't going to raise any eyebrows at this stage of his career, but that doesn't mean he is worthless in fantasy. The 32-year-old Pierre is actually climbing up draft boards with an ADP of about 15.1 with the expectation of 600+ ABs. Pierre is a 3-category guy - Runs, Average, and SB. In limited action with the Dodgers (380 AB in 2009), Pierre hit .308 with 30 SB in 42 attempts. We have him projected for 47 SB and 88 runs, which may even be a little conservative. Pierre may be an overlooked guy on draft and could be a great "steal" for a #3/#4 outfielder with speed and run production. If you focus on power early, he's a nice average equalizer as well.

Kansas City Royals

1. Starting Pitching - Its More Than Just Zack Greinke - While Zack Greinke makes watching the Royals interesting again, Luke Hochevar should be on your watch list heading into the season. His ADP falls off the charts and we have him forecasted for a 4.98 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 134 K's in 172 IP. Nothing great by any means. But Hochevar started fooling around with a splitter late last season and the results were fairly obvious in his halve-splits. His ERA and WHIP were atrocious on both ends with his 2009 Pre-All Star Break 5.34 ERA and 1.33 WHIP and Post at 7.35 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. But take a look at his strikeout and walk rates. In the first half of the season, he posted a K/I of 0.45, about a strikeout every 2.0 IP. In the second half, he jumped to 0.93, almost a strikeout an inning. His K/BB rates improved from 1.30 to 3.08, not only due to an increase in K's, but a drop in BB's as well with a declining BB/9 from 3.14 to 2.73. Again, we're just making a case for putting Hochevar on the watch list, but those are certainly intriguing trends.

2. Rick Ankiel (OF - Royals) - Ankiel will be roaming CF in Kansas City this year. If the last few days of spring training are any indication, he could make a case for some fantasy value, but it will take a lot more spring production to move him up on my list. He hit a HR and drove in 4 yesterday, going 2-for-3 on the day. Not bad, but let's take a look at some strikeout rates and lefty/righty splits. In the last two years with St. Louis, we saw his BB/K rates decline drastically from 0.42 to 0.26. Both the numerator and the dominator went in the wrong direction. He went from averaging a K per every 4.6 plate appearances in 2008 to 4.0 in 2009. That's about a strikeout a game. Not good. His BB rate also declined, averaging a walk for every 10.8 appearances to 15.3 from '08 to '09. While his average is relatively flat lefty versus righty, we saw a big variance between his SLG% in 2009. Against righties, Ankiel hit all 11 of his HR's and posted a .417 SLG. Obviously, that leaves no home runs against lefties and a .298 SLG. There are too many holes in his offensive game to make him worth anything outside of AL-only leagues at this point.

Player Notes

1. Jose Reyes (SS - New York Mets) - "Overactive Thyroid" is the official diagnosis for Jose Reyes. More tests have been requested and we should have more information by Thursday. Since I'm not a doctor, a quick WebMD search revealed the possible symptoms of "hyperthyroidism" as weight loss, accelerated heartbeat, sweating, nervousness, and moody personality. The good news is that Reyes hasn't experienced any of these symptoms (although his on-field performance has certainly made me moody in the past) and says he feels good. The bad news is that the condition really could reveal itself at anytime and, combined with his off season leg surgery, becomes an even greater risk heading into draft day. Utilizing our Fantistics draft software, we see Reyes with an ADP of 2.07 (which may be a little inflated with this news), but ranks 5th among the elite SS. With not much expected in the average department and the power likely to be zapped even more by the cavernous Citi Field, Reyes' value is heavily weighted on speed. And if his leg health and overall energy is a concern, he becomes a bigger risk.

2. Josh Hamilton (OF - Texas Rangers) - Hamilton was back in action after taking the first couple weeks off with a bruised left shoulder. He said he felt great and it certainly looked that way with a 2-for-3 day at the plate. Hamilton's ADP is 4.11, ranking as the #16 outfielder with our Fantistics Projection Software as of this morning. That rank could actually be a steal if he can give us a glimpse of the 2008 breakout year in 2010. Last year's injury woes got the best of Hamilton and it showed with his power and his walk rates. In 2007 and 2008 (limited season in '07 with the Reds), Hamilton averaged a HR/AB of 15.7 and 19.5. Last year he dropped to 33.6. His walk rate in those first two years was exactly .508 - trading 1 walk for every two strikeouts. Last year, that rate dropped to .304 which is only one walk for more than 3 K's. The Fantistics preseason projection for Hamilton has him returning to his power glory of 29 HR and 103 RBI with a walk rate of about 0.4.

3. Jon Rauch (RP - Minnesota Twins) - With Joe Nathan out for an extended period of time (maybe the entire season) with a torn elbow ligament, the race to discover the next closer in Minnesota begins. Matt Guerrier had 33 holds last season with a solid 2.36 ERA in 79 appearances and is certainly a legitimate candidate. Other names that might see some 9th inning action are Pat Neshek, Clay Condrey, Jesse Crain, and Jose Mijares. I think John Rauch has the greatest chance of winning the job, having the most experience in the closer role with 26 saves over the last 5 seasons with Arizona and Washington. Watch this situation as it plays-out over the next couple of weeks, but anyone from this bullpen should be a last closer pick. If you also have the Holds stat in your leagues, Matt Guerrier should hold more weight since he may be able to contribute to both Holds and Saves throughout the season.

4. Stephen Strasburg (SP - Washington Nationals) - I'm not going to reinvent the wheel here. The #1 draft pick's potential is limitless and he is on everybody's list as the rookie to watch in 2010. In his first spring training appearance yesterday, he thew 2.0 IP and gave up 2 hits while recording 2 strikeouts. He looked good and mowed through the middle of the Tigers lineup. One outing doesn't change his perceived fantasy value for the season. He'll likely be a call-up post-May and has an ADP of about 20.0.

5. Chipper Jones (3B - Atlanta Braves) - The 37-year-old Jones isn't waiting until the regular season to start chalking-up the injuries. He jammed his thumb last week, but was back in action yesterday and seems to be ok. Jones is coming off one of his most disappointing seasons to date, leaving potential fantasy owners to wonder just how much value to place on him heading into 2010. With Jones comes the inevitable injury bug. He has only posted more than 500 AB once in the last 6 seasons and age is not on his side. He has an ADP of 10.1, which feels high given his inconsistent playing time and a declining XBH%. For my money, Jones has to fall on the draft board and become a steal for me to take a chance and to have to deal with backup 3B pickups throughout the season when he goes on the DL.

6. Jay Bruce (OF - Cincinnati Reds) - Jay Bruce is having a nice spring, going 5-for-10 with a HR. With limited time in 2009 with a DL-stint, Bruce only hit .223 in 2009 with a .304 OBP. With that said, he improved his HR/AB rate from his first season going from 19.7 to 15.7. The true indicator to look for here is his improvement in BB/K, going from 0.30 to 0.51. That's a big jump for a 22-year-old kid and it should lead to an increase in average and OBP in 2010, especially if he can learn to hit lefties (.330 SLG% against lefties versus .527 against righties). His ADP is about 8.0 right now.

7. Chris Young (SP - San Diego Padres) - Coming off of arthroscopic shoulder surgery in August, Chris Young looked good in his 2nd spring training appearance. He threw 46 pitches in 3.0 shutout innings and said he feels good. I have yet to see any published radar results, so its difficult to know if his velocity is back, but Young can be fantasy serviceable again if he return to his old self. We have him projected for 142 K's, a 4.25 ERA, and a 1.30 WHIP. Consider him a last round flier for your last pitching spot and it could yield decent dividends.

8. Matt Cain (SP - SF Giants) - Matt Cain has hurled two straight 3.0+ IP games and looked better this time around than his first. After posting a K/9 of 8.48 in 2005, Cain's strikeout rate has evolved into the mid-7.0's with consistency. Starting in 2006, that rate has leveled off to 7.34, 7.71, and 7.06. His 2009 was overshadowed by Lincecum (we should get used to it), but he did post a 2.89 ERA and a 1.18, ace-like numbers on most teams. We have him at 7.17 this season with a slight reversion back to the mean with a 3.40 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Either way, I think he continues to be an under-rated fantasy pitcher playing in a very-friendly pitcher's park.

9. Billy Wagner (Closer - Braves) - It might take some time for Wagner to work-out the cobwebs. Afterall, he only threw 16 innings last year and underwent elbow surgery. Yesterday, he looked comfortable on the mound, retiring all three Phillies batters he faced. Health is the key variable with Wagner, who is currently holding on to an ADP of 13.0. Forecasting him to be healthy should yield 30+ saves and a K/I of about 1.0, even at 38 years old.

10. Shane Victorino (OF - Phillies) - Victorino was finally back in action after nursing a sore right shoulder for the past couple of weeks. The injury doesn't look to be too serious and should change any draft strategies at this point. With a Phillies lineup that has remained relatively unchanged (especially at the top), we see Victorino's 2010 being largely consistent with his previous couple of years as a Phillie. We saw some improvements in 2009 with increases in EYE and XBH% that should remain, leading to an ADP of about 7.0.

Follow me on Twitter all season @jribando.

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2010 Preseason Prep - March 9, 2010

2010-03-09T11:36:05Z

Pittsburgh Pirates Andrew McCutcheon - McCutcheon is one of the game’s better young hitters and one of the few reasons for hope for Pirates’ fans in the coming years. He is a young and exciting player, and if his pre-season chatter has some truth to it, he could be even more exciting on the base paths this season. McCutcheon has vowed to run more this season, and perhaps more importantly, Pittsburgh manager John Russell has said himself that he would like to see McCutcheon run more. Last season, McCutcheon stole 22 bases in 108 games. Perhaps a future indication he might run more, along with his pre-season comments, is his success rate from a year ago of 81.5%. If we add his AAA numbers from last year to that total, he stole 32 out of 39 bases for a success rate of 82%. That’s a very impressive rate, especially for a rookie, let alone a rookie who was caught 19 times in 53 times (just a 64% success rate) a year prior. Clearly, McCutcheon dedicated himself to learning the nuances of the running game last season and looks to learn even more as he heads into this season. As a result, consider our current projection of 29 steals a conservative one; McCutcheon could easily approach 40+ over a full season in the majors.
Bobby Crosby - Crosby expects to receive significant playing time for his new team this season. Well, if he can stay healthy that is. Crosby, in his last five seasons since his AL ROY season of 2004, has played over 100 games just once. He blasted 22 HR in that ROY campaign, but his power numbers have dropped significantly since then. In his first two seasons (’03 and ’04) he posted HR/FB% of 14.3% and 11.3%. Here are his numbers in that category the past 4 seasons: 9.1/8.8/4.2/7.6. He has not made any significant strides in his plate discipline, and he has posted two consecutive career lows in line drive rates at 15.9%, then 15.3%. So, Pirates fans shouldn’t hope too hard for Crosby to experience any sort of resurgence because it’s not likely to happen. It doesn’t seem too long ago he flashed some serious potential, but he is already 30 YO with no statistical indications of a turnaround on the horizon any time soon.
Cincinnati Reds Aroldis Chapman - It would be insane of me to not comment on Chapman’s first Spring Training appearance. He picked up the victory against Kansas City by working two scoreless innings in which he walked just one batter and allowed just one hit while striking out three batters. Those numbers are good, but what is impressive is how he got to those numbers. Chapman’s fastball was measured as high as 99 (even 100 mph according to one scout), and it was 99 with command according to manager Dusty Baker. We currently have Chapman at an ADP in the 25th round in 12 team leagues. With this outing he should already start to move up draft boards. One thing that separates Chapman from the game’s other prospects this spring (i.e. Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg) is his contract. He has signed a 6 year contract, so the Reds don’t have the same worries as other teams in the sense that financial obligations and service time are less of a factor in determining whether or not Chapman begins the season with the ML club. So, a few more outings like this, and Chapman could earn a spot in the rotation right out of the gate.
Drew Stubbs - Possibly lost in the shuffle of Chapman’s debut was Drew Stubbs blasting a go-ahead two run homer in the third inning. Stubbs is a quality sleeper selection this year, as he is likely to earn the everyday CF and lead off spots, although with Dusty Baker you never know. He is a real speed threat and should score plenty of runs. Between AAA and the majors last season, Stubbs stole 56 bases in 68 attempts. He has 50 steal potential right away, and Fantistics has him projected to swipe 37 bags this year. However, potential owners shouldn’t be deceived by his HR output last season. Stubbs homered 8 times in his first go around at the major league level in just 180 at bats. However, he has never throughout his minor league career been anything close to a power hitter. So, to extrapolate Stubbs’ HR production from last season over a full season’s worth of at bats would be nonsensical. He is only likely to hit around 10 or so. Fantistics has him projected for 9. Stubbs’ speed and talent still make him an excellent sleeper selection, but just realize what you’re going to get with him.
Colorado Rockies Todd Helton - It’s always difficult to see some of our favorite players give way to father time and fail to produce with the bat as they once did. Such has been the case with Todd Helton for a few years now. Helton still has an amazing EYE (1.22 the past two seasons) and a solid LD% (24.7% in ’09), which is amazing considering his age (36 YO) and chronic back problems. So, he still has a shot at hitting .300. Unfortunately, he has no power whatsoever. Since Helton first saw major league playing time (1997), he never posted an ISO below .200 until 2006. Since then, though, his ISO’s have fallen off quite a bit: 174/.174/.124/.164 in ’06-’09. In ’02 – ’06, his HR/FB% dropped steadily: 17.1/16.4/15.3/11/7.5, and they have not recovered since. It’s the same story with any of Helton’s power stats, including XBH%. So, while the batting average and name recognition may catch your eye, he really isn’t someone to target, even very late in drafts. You are better off drafting a Nick Johnson or a Matt LaPorta, two players who at least have some upside, rather than living in the glory days and taking Helton, who is being draft a round or two ahead of Johnson and LaPorta on average.
Aaron Cook - In yesterday’s projection blog, it was noted that Cook’s sinker was working very well. This is vital to Cook’s success. He is successful because he is an extreme ground ball pitcher (57.5% GB rate for his career), which helps to negate his subpar career K/9 of 3.71. Cook has a very good chance of posting one of the better seasons of his career this year. His K/9 have been trending upward (3.31/4.09/4.44 the past three seasons), and his HR/FB% of 14.2% last season was out of line with his career mark, which is 4 percentage points lower, meaning his HR allowed total should come down a bit in ‘10.
Kevin Slowey SP (MIN) - Slowey might make for a better value pick than his counterpart Scott Baker. In fact, I’m surprised there isn’t more hype surrounding Slowey. At age 25, he’s three years younger than Baker. His K/9 last year of 7.44 is better than any mark Baker has posted in the majors. Also, Slowey’s control is outstanding, to the tune of a 5 or better K/BB ratio in each of the past two seasons. Baker has always been solid in this category as well, yet his career best K/BB mark is 3.88. Slowey is a FB risky pitcher (career .71 GB/FB ratio), but so is Baker (career .74 GB/FB ratio, .71 in ’09). Due to his wrist surgery and high ERA and WHIP in ‘09, 4.86 and 1.41 respectively, comes in ranked pretty low on most draft day lists. However, he had a very unlucky .352 BABIP last season, which is largely responsible for the inflated ERA and WHIP numbers. With a normalization of his BABIP and good health (so far, so good), there’s no reason why Slowey won’t come close to Baker’s final numbers at an ADP of four rounds later, and because of his youth he has more upside than Baker.
Jimmy Rollins SS (PHI) - Rollins should bounce back this year, particularly in the batting average department. His singles averages from ’05 to ‘8 are .245/.212/.228/.217. Yet, he posted a .186 singles average last season. His LD% was right in line with his ’06 and ’07 marks, and his EYE of .63 was right in line with his career mark of .61. So, with that taken into consideration, we can determine Rollins experienced a great deal of bad luck last season. This year his singles average should normalize, resulting in a heavy spike in batting average from a year ago.
Adrian Beltre 3B (BOS) - Many times when a player moves from a lesser known market to a popular market, he automatically becomes overvalued in the fantasy world. Well, that could be the case with Beltre, who has moved from Seattle to Boston. The bottom line is he was acquired by Boston for his glove, not his bat. Certainly, the move from Safeco to Fenway is a favorable one for Beltre, but it should help mask his decline more so than bump up his production. He has never had a great EYE, but last year it was terrible, at a career low .26. Meanwhile, his HR/FB% also dipped to a career low 5.6%, as did his .114 ISO. Oh, and while we’re at it his LD% was…you guessed it, a career low (16.4%) Beltre may not post numbers that low again this season, but his offense is in serious decline.
Gio Gonzalez SP (OAK) - For those of you looking for a spec pick in deeper leagues, Gonzalez isn’t a bad choice. His ability to make hitters swing and miss gives him more upside than most pitchers that will be drafted as late as him. In over 132 major league innings spanning ’08 and ’09, Gonzalez has struck out 9.70 batters per 9 IP. Last season in just 100 IP, he posted a solid 46.1% ground ball rate. If Gonzalez is able to get his horrendous control (5.49 career BB/9) in check, he could post a breakout season.
Barry Zito SP (SF) - On the first of this month, Paul pointed out Zito’s improvements in both his walk and k rates, which have left him a relevant fantasy SP once again. So, what got into Zito? Well, it appears that Zito threw his slider last season far more than ever before. He threw it 18.6% of the time, which is more than triple the rate at which he threw it from 2002-2009 (5.9%). It was Zito’s most effective pitch by far; he was a 14.7 runs above average pitcher while throwing his slider. The result can be seen most dramatically in the contact rate of opposing hitters versus Zito. For the past three seasons, hitters have made contact over 88% of the time, at least, on Zito’s pitches inside of the strike zone, but that number came down to 86.7% last season. Look for Zito to continue to rely on that slider once again this season.
Josh Willingham OF (WASH) - We have Willingham pegged as a possible 30+HR candidate. He posted an okay EYE last season of .59, and his solid HR/FB% of 17.4% was not that out of the ordinary for Willingham. He has always flashed power, with a career HR/FB% of 14.4%. His XBH% has always been solid (9.8/9.4/9.9 in ‘06/’07/’08), but last year it made a jump to 10.6%. If you are lacking power late in the draft, Willingham is a safe bet for at least 20 homers. The Fantistics projection for him is 30 HR.
David DeJesus OF (KC) - DeJesus is a nice a all-around player to nab at the very ends of drafts. He doesn’t do anything spectacular, but for where he will be drafted he does a little bit everything. Fantistics has him projected for 14 HR and 10 SB along with a .287 BA. He is also a safe pick. In seven MLB seasons, he has posted an MLB average below .280 just once, and for the last two seasons he has scored at least 70 runs and driven in at least 70 as well.
Placido Polanco 3B (PHI) - Polanco was signed this past off season to fill the Phillies’ void at 3B. Polanco has always had a good EYE, career .80, and that has not changed in recent years. That, combined with his extremely solid career contact rate of 93%, makes him an ideal two hole hitter for the Phillies. Look for him to score plenty of runs while hitting around .300 all season long.
Randy Ruiz DH (TOR) - For those of you in AL only leagues desperate for power late in the draft, Randy Ruiz should see over 400 at bats while getting most of the playing time at DH for Toronto. He hit 10 HR in just 33 games as a Blue Jay last season and has always flashed power throughout his minor league career. Just don’t expect it to come with a good batting average, despite mostly good batting averages in the minors. Those batting averages were heavily influenced by high BABIP that Ruiz is unlikely to match at the major league level. Also, Ruiz strikes out…a lot. His K% in the minors has consistently been above 25%, and in two brief major league stints, one last season and one the year prior, Ruiz struck out 31.6% of the time in 115 at bats. Fantistics has him projected to hit 24 HR with a .269 average. ]]>

2010 Preseason Prep - March 8th, 2010

2010-03-09T04:20:36Z

My counterparts at Fantistics have been doing an amazing job breaking down the pre-season players and the key situations to watch for all the teams and I’m excited to jump into the foray and push a few more teams onto the tracks and get them going. We’ll work our way going from East to West and the first stop will be in the Peach State where we’ll take a look at what’s going on with the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta Braves-- The Outfield Battle—Perhaps the biggest question facing the Braves this spring is who is in the outfield? It’s guaranteed that Nate McLouth will be patrolling centerfield which leaves LF and RF up for grabs. The current candidates are Matt Diaz, newly acquired Melky Cabrera and the guy everyone is talking about Jason Heyward. Heyward is widely considered to be the best prospect in baseball and at age 19 appears to be on the fast track to the big leagues. In the minors he has showed a maturity and plate discipline way beyond his years with a career EYE of 0.76 and possesses an overall OBP of .391 for 3 seasons in the minors. He’s been able to handle both right-handed and left-handed pitching equally well (.357 vs. LH and .308 vs. RH) which is reflected in his overall batting average of .321 and in his spring training performances have been equally impressive drawing walks, stealing bases and hitting for average. This all sounds great but there is a good chance that Heyward will start the season off at Triple A and Diaz will be the RF for the start of the 2010 campaign. By calling him up in late April, the Braves will be able to retain the right to Heyward for the 2016 season. He’ll be a “Super Two” which will make him eligible for arbitration a year earlier but the ends justify the means for the Braves and they did the exact same thing with Tommy Hanson last year. The time in triple A probably won’t hinder Heyward from being the prime ROY candidate but in the meantime Diaz will provide more than adequate replacement value as he produced a slash line of .313/.390/.488 with a runs over replacement player (RAR) of 26.8. Although these are lofty numbers for Diaz to repeat in 2010, he acts a nice bridge to the Heyward years. Atlanta Braves—Pass the Aspirin—On paper, the Braves look like they could be serious division contenders, but much of their success will depend on the performances of some of their—shall we say—more “seasoned” veterans and the oft-injured one or those who fall into both categories. Going from youngest to oldest, these players are Troy Glaus (33), Tim Hudson (34), Derek Lowe (36), Chipper Jones (38), Billy Wagner (38), Takashi Saito (40). Jones is a huge upside player but he's the guy who needs the biggest turn around if the Braves have a chance for success having come off his worse season. Jones is showing more cracks than what you would see at a plumber’s convention. With Shea Stadium no longer around to feast on, Jones took a major hit on his value last year. Sure, you know the guy is never going to play 162 games a year and the injuries will prevent him from reaching 500 AB’s (an accomplishment he has only done once in the past 6 seasons). But with Chipper, you’ve expected him to make up “for lost time”, with a strong hitting, a .400 OBP and above average power. But 2009, saw new lows in Jones’ career with a .264 BA, sub 20 HR’s, and a WAR (wins of replacement player) of only 2.8. His plate discipline and knowledge of the strike zone are still first class and should continue to help buoy a sinking average. But Jones has always been able to be an effective fastball hitter but in ’09 he had far more trouble than ever with the pitch. His took a huge hit on his wFB (runs generated above the average with the fastball) dropping from 33.5 to 2.0 in ’09. When you see a player like Jones who is already injury-prone begin to take a steep drop like he has, you’re better off taking a pass in the draft as he will only cause more frustration once the season is in full swing. If Jones is still plagued with injuries this season, the Braves will have to rely heavily on Omar Infante and Eric Hinske which doesn't bode well for Bobby Cox's last hurrah. Houston Astros – Oswalt Keeps Slip Slidin' Away – Continuing our journey West, we'll hop on I-65 to the I-10 West, through Baton Rouge and find ourselves in Houston where the Astros have a brand new manager, Brad Mills, but an aging ace in Roy Oswalt. The Astros offense will probably take a bit of a hit this year with Miguel Tejada leaving which means that the team may be leaning a little more on their pitchers to deliver solid, consistent outings. The Astros struggled to score runs as they were 14th in the N.L. behind the Padres and Pirates. But manager Mills has to be concerned about his ace since there’s a disturbing trend developing with Roy Oswalt and it's following a very consistent pattern. With every passing season since 2005 his numbers are getting worse. Let’s see: increasing ERA, plus decreasing LOB%, plus decreasing innings pitched, plus multiple injuries = trouble brewing. It’s true. Oswalt’s ERA has been steadily increasing over the last several season and ’09 he logged a career high ERA of 4.12. He also hit the lowest average of innings pitched per game last season at around 6 innings pitched per start. His LOB% has steadily gone down which explains why the ERA has gone up. His velocity is still good on his pitches but he will be 33 this year and has been battling a string of hip and back issues over the past several season that really began, not surprisingly, back in 2005 and these injuries have increased in frequency. It''s a good thing that the Wandy Rodriguez has been establishing himself, improving every season and can take over as the team's ace. Oswalt was once one a top tier pitcher, but continues to slip season to season. Best let him slip on by come draft day. Houston Astros – Coin Flip for the Closer-- The Astros had a couple of vacant spots in the bullpen at the end of '09 and needed to fill the closer and the 8th inning setup roles as Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins moved on. In steps Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom to fill the roles although it hasn't been officially decided which reliever will be the closer. Both have experience in the role although neither has had great success. Lyon recorded only 3 saves last year for Detroit but did produce a nifty 2.86 ERA. In '08 he notched 26 saves for Arizona but was hardly a “sure thing” with a 4.70 ERA. His fastball is usually in the low 90's ad typical has fairly good control and is really more of a contact pitcher with a career contact rate of 83%. Lyon's biggest issue right now is that he had some surgery performed in the off-season removing a cyst on his shoulder and although he hasn't pitched yet in Cactus League competition, he is supposedly progressing well and expected to be ready for opening day. Matt Lindstrom is Lyon's competition and saved a career high 15 games last year but was sidelined for a a good portion of the summer with elbow issues. Coming into spring training, Lindstrom is healthy but his numbers will make a fantasy owner looking for a potential closer wince. Sure, he throws in the mid-90's but Lindstrom is the Yang to Lyon's Yin as he tends to be a bit of a wild child averaging about 4.6 BB/9. His ERA ballooned up to 5.89 by year's end partially due to an elevated BHIP% of .342 and an awful LOB% of 61.6%. If he's healthy, we can probably expect better than last year but already in his first appearance of the spring danced through 0.6 innings allowing 2 hits and a walk. Once Lyon is healthy, the competition should heat up for the closer role, but if either Lyon or Lindstrom falter at any point during the season, the other will more than likely get their chance to save a game or two. Unfortunately, this doesn't really benefit the fantasy player when you have two potential closers and neither one of them have a firm grasp on the closing duties. Splitting the job between the two will lessen the value for each. Los Angeles Angles of Anaheim – Wood Getting a Chance-- We'll hop back on the I-10 going west and take it all the way to the Pacific and cruise down the I-5 south and now check in on the Angels of Los Angeles, Anaheim and Orange County. With Chone Figgins signing with Seattle, the 3rd base position is open and long-time rookie Brandon Wood is FINALLY getting his shot at an every day role. Wood who has spent the last 7 years mired in the Angels farm system is 87 now – just kidding—he's 25 but long time considered one of the top prospects in baseball, he has been held down in the minors unable to establish himself on the big club and has only been up for a cup of coffee or two. Wood's a power hitting 3rd basemen with unfortunate holes in his swing that has probably hindered his progression. He has struck out 23% of the time in the minors for his career but last year was able to reduce that rate to 18.6% perhaps finally showing the maturity the Angels were hoping to see. Last year his EYE was 0.45 and still needs plenty of work, but Wood does posses a minor league career .354 OBP and a career OPS of .895. He'll finally get the playing time to see what he can do and while he is certainly a big question mark come draft day, he is someone to grab as a reserve player who could payoff big dividends. Los Angeles Angles of Anaheim – Godzilla at Disneyland-- The newest attraction just outside the gates at Disneyland will be the Godzilla display at Angel Stadium. Yes, Hideki Matsui has traded his pinstripes for a halo and the Angels are hoping that he will bring some of that clutch hitting to the team to replace Vladimir Guerrero who will be playing for the Angels' nemesis, Texas Rangers. Matsui also brings with him two bum knees and will probably not see much time in the outfield if any over the season. Because of this restriction, his versatility for a fantasy standpoint may take a hit as well as the need for rest that he will require. This will allow the Angels to get the most mileage out of him for as long as possible. Matsui numbers were solid last year with a slash line of .274/.367/.509 and smacked 28 home runs in 456 AB's which came out to a home run ever 16.3 AB's—very nice. Equally good news is that Masui should be able to find Angel Stadium an appealing park to hit home runs in as well. Angel Stadium was second behind Yankee Stadium as parks that were most home run friendly and only 1 home run that Matsui hit in Yankee stadium last year would have resulted in an out in Angel Stadium. If healthy, Matsui should make solid contributions to any fantasy team but if you are eyeballing him, you can probably sit back and wait a while as he will drop pretty far in the draft because of his injury concerns. Along with the question of his knees, the other question will be whether the Angels come up with a Rally Godzilla to go along with the Rally Money and Thundersticks? Angel fans love to bring their toys with them to the ballpark. Manny Ramirez (Dodgers—OF) If you thinking about drafting Manny Ramirez and expecting “Manny to be Manny”, you may want to think twice. Ramirez turns 38 early this season and is coming off of a year where steroids have cast a shadow on his career. It's probably best to look at his '09 games in halves to get a real gauge on how we might expect him to do in 2010. The games he missed in '09 obviously prevented him from reaching the 20 HR mark, but after his suspension his HR rate went down to 3.6% compared to 5.8% in the first half of the season. His strikeouts also increased in the second half by over 8% and to top it off his wOBA (weight on-base average) reduced from .487 to .371 in the second half indicating that his overall effectiveness diminished. According to projections we may also see roughly a 26% attrition rate for Manny this year. He still may hit OK for average around .280, but it wouldn't be surprising to see Ramirez hit in the low 20's for HR and in the 80's for RBI. He's got the big name, but his bat may be shrinking (insert you're own punchline here). Coming off steroids, aging and Manny's personality, it may be a safer option to keep away from him in '09. J.A. Happ (Phillies—SP) J.A. Happ came in 2nd in the ROY of the year voting and captured 10 first place votes for the honor, but don't expect that impressive first year to carry over into 2010. He did finish the year with an impressive 12-4 record and somehow managed a 2.93 ERA, but throw away those surface statistics and look a little deeper. For starters, Happ's peripherals really don't support his performance last year with a K/9 of 6.45 and a BB/9 of 3.04. Pretty close to the league average. With a BHIP of 2.70, you can expect it rise in 2010 because his luck can't hold out without better stuff. His FIP of 4.32 is also troublesome being a full run and half higher than his ERA and don't get me started on his LOB% which was over 82%. All the signs are looking like Happ is heading south this season. Many projections have Happ's ERA adjusting to around 3.50 for next season, but I think Happ will actually hit above 4.00. Don't be fooled by his rookie year because Happ is a pitcher (especially in Citizens Bank Park) that will be hit hard in his sophomore year especially going around the league for a second season. Let him be someone else's problem come draft day. Javier Vazquez (Yankees—SP) Last season, savvy fantasy players recognized Javier Vazquez's move to the N.L. as a real benefit and realized that a move to the DH-less league and a pitcher-friendly park could reap some nice numbers. They were right. Vazquez enjoyed his best season in the bigs with 15 wins, a sub-par 3.00 ERA and a WHIP that was one of the best in baseball. Vazquez has enjoyed some solid years in the past but none like '09. So with his move to New York and the New Yankee Stadium (a.k.a The Great Softball Field in the Bronx), this should raise a red flag for suitors of Vazquez's services. First, he has never put together solid back-to back seasons with any consistency (maybe that's why the Braves decided to trade him while his value was at its highest). Second, he has made the move to a hot hitting division where he must go back to facing the more unforgiving DH. Third, he will be pitching most of his games at Yankee Stadium-need I say more? Vazquez was able to take advantage of pitching at “The Ted” but Yankee Stadium will be more likely to expose those mistakes that “The Ted” was able to absorb. Being a fly ball pitcher with a 40% FB% for his career, we should expect to see a jump in in Vazquez's ERA well above 3.00 and very well could hit the 4.00's. His WHIP will take a beating too. Yes, he should be able to get his share of wins and he can still control the game with a good BB/K ratio but even that should take a hit. We tend to elevate the abilities of players on the Yankees because, well...they are the Yankees. Be careful not to overvalue Vazquez in the draft because if you are expecting results like '09, you are not going to see that kind of season in 2010. Scott Feldman (Rangers—SP) If there are any fantasy owners out there that are looking at Scott Feldman to repeat his 17 win performance this season, I hate to burst your bubble, but last season was a lucky year for Mr. Feldman. Feldman was one of the most fortunate pitchers in the win column getting about 4 more wins then he actually deserved. Normally, pitchers will only win about 74% of their quality starts and it seems that Feldman won 94% of them. His luck is accentuated by a poor xFIP at 4.49 and a low BHIP of .275. He really doesn't have the peripherals for that balancing act to continue since he averages just a little over 5 strikeouts a game, walks more than 3 and allows better than 8 hits per nine innings. So don't be seduced by that overinflated win column, there are too many signs that point to troubled waters ahead for Feldman. Josh Hamilton (Rangers—OF) The funny thing about baseball is that it takes just one really good year to give everyone the perception that you're better than you really are. For me, Josh Hamilton falls into that category and there is no denying that his 2008 season with the Rangers was off the charts. But other than that we really don't have enough of a track record to award him top tier outfielder status since he has never played a full season other than that one great year. Dave expressed the same concerns a couple of weeks ago regarding Hamilton and my sentiments are similar. His 2008 plate appearances exceeds the total of his plate appearances for 2007 and 2009 combined. There's no quibbling that he has power to spare clubbing a home run in about every 20 AB's for his career and Arlington Stadium does help to give hitters a nice power boost. But Hamilton's bigger issues is just staying on the field. In 2008, he was relatively injury free but in other years his injuries have included nerve impingements in the lower back, groin strain, rib strain, hamstring strain, sprained wrist and a bout with gastroenteritis. Now in spring training he is coming up with shoulder issues. Where does it end? He'll be 29 this year and it's a real concern that the guy is already past his prime. So if you feel the need to take a chance and roll the dice on Hamilton, go for it. It could be a big payoff. But with just one great year and the rest of the times headaches, it seems like a risky proposition to include him heavily in your draft day plans. Just because one-hit wonder Carl Douglas had a huge record with “Kung Fu Fighting”, doesn't make him the Beatles. Carlos Marmol (Cubs—RP) There's a lot of pressure on Carlos Marmol this year to shut down those close games in the 9th inning and secure a Cub's win. But if Marmol isn't doing the job, the Cubs aren't going anywhere this season. There’s no denying that Marmol has a great, "live" arm. The guy averaged over 11 strikeouts per nine innings last year. But if your eyes are popping out of your head from that impressive statistic, you should probably take a glance to the right or left of his stat lines and check out those walks per nine innings. Yup, that's pretty impressive too. Impressively bad. Marmol was very generous with his base on balls allowing just fewer than 8 walks per nine frames. Add a little fuel to that fire with a 5.16 xFIP and you've got a pretty wild, flyball pitcher who appears to have been more lucky than good. Although, he only allowed 2 home runs last year, you should probably expect that pattern to change this year. Even if it doesn't, is this the kind of pitcher you want for your closer? Chances are Marmol will have you reaching for the antacids in every appearance and even the saved games will be like walking a tightrope. Ryan Franklin (Cardinals—RP) What an amazing season Ryan Franklin had in ’09 (at least until the post-season). A career high in saves (38), a minuscule ERA of 1.92 and a LOB% of 85.7. What?!? 85.7!! If you are thinking that’s an unreal LOB%, you’d be right. Let’s be frank (no pun intended), Franklin is simply not as good of a closer as we saw last season and that LOB% is going to take a dump. His strikeout and walk average doesn’t support him repeating anything close to his numbers in ’09. Franklin only allowed 2 home runs last season but with a FB% of 34.4%, you can expect more home runs to go over the fence this upcoming season. His xFIP of 4.27 is probably the biggest indicator that his ERA is a fluke; what a disparity between the two numbers of almost 2 and half runs. Also with a BHIP of .269 in ‘09, we should expect less batted balls to find leather and find the hole in the infield since Franklin really doesn’t have the stuff to blow hitters away. Hitters made contact against him 82% of the time compared to the MLB average of 80%. He simply doesn’t have the equipment to sustain a year like he had last season. This is not to say that Franklin won’t get his share of saves and be a viable closer on a strong Cardinal team, but do not expect the ’09 Franklin to show up in 2010. Kaz Matsui (Astros—2B) First, let’s talk about the good news with regards to Kaz Matsui. He managed to stay relatively healthy for most of 2009 and logged more AB’s (476) and games played (132) than at any other time in his major league career. He also hit more home runs (9) and had more RBI (46) last season which was really more of a result of just playing more often than any surge of excellence. But at least we can say that Matsui had career highs in few categories. Oh goodie! Granted, on draft day we tend to be more forgiving of the middle infielder with the realization that not everyone is going to be Chase Utley. But last season, Matsui was only able to squeak out a OBP of .302 and took a hit of 43 points on his batting average with all of the extra playing time. His WAR (wins over replacement player) was only 0.5 for the season putting him slightly above the average replacement player. Speaking of replacement players, what if we compare Matsui to Willie Bloomquist, the quintessential replacement player? Not much difference. Bloomquist hit for better average in ’09 (.265 versus .250 for Matsui) and had a better OBP (.308). Matsui did produce better SLG at .357 versus .355 for Bloomquist (excuse me while I yawn). But the bigger picture is that Bloomquist is coming off the bench for the Royals and Matsui is the starting second baseman for the Astros. So the question is: would you draft Willie Bloomquist for your fantasy team? Highly improbable. So why would you draft Kaz Matsui? Kendry Morales (Angels--1B) Last year, Kendry Morales put together one of the most surprising seasons for any player in baseball with 34 homers, 108 RBI and a .306 batting average. Great numbers, but who was expecting that? There were such great numbers that they earned him 5th place in the MVP vote sandwiched between Miguel Cabrera and Kevin Youkilis. Nice company. But its’ probably going to be tough for Morales to repeat those gaudy numbers in 2010. His HR/FB% was the highest it has ever been in his career at 18.1%. Not to mention that his BHIP was a pretty chunky .329 and with a K% of better than 20%, it’s hard to really get behind the idea that he is primed for a repeat of last season. Also, I tend to be a little wary of players in their second full season that produced bloated results in their first full season. Usually the second go-around, pitchers in the league have figured out how to make adjustments to hitters and Morales may be one of those guys who’s weaknesses may be exposed the second time around. Don’t be surprised if there is a drop off and Morales’ stats look less impressive. Joba Chamberlin (Yankees—SP/RP) We have a tendency to overvalue those guys that wear the pinstripes and Joba Chamberlin is player who could be a real disappointment on draft day. First, there's always the potential that GM Brian Cashman and manager Joe Girardi will continue to flip-flop on whether Chamberlin should be a starter or a reliever in the bullpen which would certainly lessen his value if he is the setup guy for Mariano Rivera. But his viability as a starter is in question too. In 2009, Chamberlin struggled posting a 9-6 record and a 4.75 ERA. He allowed better than 9 hits and 4 BB's per 9 innings. But let's say that Joba improves and is able to reduce all of those numbers. One of the other concerns for Chamberlin is the potential for injury. The reason that all of these “Joba Rules” were put into place was to comfortably build up his innings pitched to avoid the potential for injury. But the Yankees relied heavily on Chamberlin last year because of Wang's woes and Joba wound up pitching more innings last year than 2008 and 2007 combined. This puts him at risk for injury especially if the Yankees are planning to slot him into the rotation. They may decide to split starts between Phil Hughes and Chamberlin but once again, Chamberlin loses value in this scenario too. Come draft day try to imagine Chamberlin in a different uniform other than Yankee pinstripes and than decide if you would really want to take a chance on him]]> clicking here. Not a member? Join today.

2010 Preseason Prep - March 6, 2010

2010-03-06T13:00:02Z

Cardinals SS - Brendan Ryan continues to progress. Ryan will take soft toss on Monday with hopes of seeing live BP the following week. That schedule would have him seeing game action in the third week of March. Tony La Russa was asked if Ryan could see some time as a defensive replacement or baserunner before he's ready to hit. He wouldn't discount the possibility it didn't seem like it was part of the plan either. Ryan feels he'll be ready for Opening Day while La Russa says the Cards are planning as if he won't be. It's looking more and more that Felipe Lopez will start the season as the Cards' SS and considering Ryan's .279/.333./706 slash line, Felipe has a shot to earn himself considerable playing time. Last week we cautioned not to be too enamored with Lopez and his "rebound" season last year (.310/9/57). Lopez's .358 BHIP% last year was unrepeatably high and it's likely he'll be drawn back to his norm this year which may not look too much better than Ryan. Add in the split PT situation and neither looks terribly appetizing as draft day approaches. Cardinals batting order - The Cards slotted Colby Rasmus in the #2 slot in the order on Friday and they would like him to take root there but it doesn't seem like a good fit. His zone command (6.9% walk rate/20.0% K rate) and his contact skills (20.0% K rate, .251 AVG with a neutral .282 BHIP%) don't appear to be mature and his .160/.219/.474 line in 106 AB vs. LHP last year is just scary. The second slot is a thinking/adapting/contact batting position and Rasmus just needs to find his feet in the majors at this point. He especially needs to show improvement against LHP if he wants to earn enough PT to blossom into the player we'd like him to be. Blue Jays Roster - The Blue Jays don't appear to terribly invested in Travis Snider as a huge part of the 2010 season. GM Alex Anthopoulos told Travis over the winter that he wasn't guaranteed a spot on the roster and while that may have just been a motivational ploy it was misguided. Wednesday Travis batted 9th in the lineup behind Alex Gonzalez ... against a RH starter ... indicating Cito Gaston's feelings about him. He fanned twice against the Tigers that day underlining one of the bigger issues ... his 32.4% K rate in the majors last year (78Ks in 241 ABs). As a result Travis hit just .241 even with a somewhat favorable .316 BHIP%. Throughout his pro career Travis' K rate has been like our current unemployment numbers, about the best you can say on occasion is "hey, it's not as bad as we thought it would be" ... although you can't even say that about his tour with the big club last year. Travis is going to strikeout ... a lot. And it's not likely to get too much better going forward although he will get better. But, given sufficient ABs, Travis will also hit 25+ HRs. Whether he'll get those ABs is likely dependent on whether the Jays brass focuses on the former or the latter truth. What's more disturbing however is Snider's .225 AVG. and .275 SLG% against LHP last year. It's a small sample (40 ABs), but the results have significant historical support as well. What's important to keep in mind here is that Travis is still only 22. He has learned all he can in the minors, and the Jays really should just give him one of the COF slots and bat him 6th and see where we end up in 500 ABs . What makes forecasting so difficult is that it's not always enough to be able to evaluate a player's skills. You also have to divine his opportunity. Often a player's skill will eventually dictate his opportunity but not always. Tell me that Travis will get 500 ABs this year and I'll tell you he'll hit .260, maybe a little better and hit 25 HRs. Tell me he's going to get 400 ABs, predominantly against RHP and I'll tell you he may hit .270 with 18-20 HRs. I have a pretty good idea what Travis can do ... I just don't know what Cito and the Jays will do about Travis Blue Jays Starting Rotation - Big wheel keeps on turning as Tina would say ... Brandon Morrow pitched two hitless innings against the Phils on Friday all but cementing his spot in the starting rotation. The Blue Jays may be falling into the classic trap of trying to project starters results on a moderately effective reliever. And they were encouraged by his 3.68 ERA and .243 OBA in 51.1 IP as a starter and a very hot finish last year. Fair enough ... But I see his 1.47 career WHIP and I see him pitching in the AL East and I think I will probably be looking at an AL-average starter ... 9-12 wins if he gets 28 starts ... a 4.50-4.70 ERA ... He could be a nice 4 or 5 options late in an AL-only draft. Of course his 124.2 IP last year (over 2 levels) was pretty much twice his previous career high to that point, and he should top that again this year. He did pitch very well after the break however and while you have to be wary of a late fade, that should be less of a factor this year than last. David Purcey's grasp on a rotation slot if more tenuous than Morrow's and his 3 runs allowed to the Phils (7 hits) in two IP on Friday didn't help ...What did help however was Bret Cecil's kitchen prowess. Cecil sliced the thumb on his left hand while cooking and missed two innings of work on Thursday. The injury doesn't appear to be serious and the Jays expect Cecil to be available with a few days ... Dustin McGowan (offseason shoulder surgery) has been scheduled for work in a simulated game on Tuesday or Wednesday. He has been working on the side and it may not take long for him to get into the fray once he passes this hurdle. His performance in that outing will be less interesting than how his shoulder feels the next day. The last two starting slots for the Jays are fairly wide open and Dustin could quickly enter the mix barring a setback. The Red Sox Starting Rotation - An incredibly dull and drama-less Sox camp continues with almost nothing in doubt. Daisuke Matsuzaka is as big a question mark as there is in camp this year. He threw 58-pitches on the side on Friday and appears ready for his first game action of the spring. His 18-3, 2.90 in 2008 was a bit of a mirage. He was helped by a .267 BHIP% and 80.6% LOB%. Still we can throw last year out for the purposes of forcasting this year. Matsuzaka says he injured his thigh before camp last year and battled injuries all season. He has battled a sore back this camp but appears to be ready to work. Dice worked hard in the offseason and arrived at camp in visibly better shape. It's unlikely that Dice-K repeats 2008 in any shape or form this year but there's every possibility he puts in a well above average season for the Sox. Last year's problems should drive down his price in your league to the point where he'll almost certainly return more than you pay for him. I think 12-15 wins and a sub-4.00 ERA is an entirely reasonable expectation ... Just make sure you don't pay for 2008 however. Angel Guzman - Do you remember the scene in Days of Thunder when Harry Hogge sees that puddle of fluid under Cole Trickle's car after he gives the car his inspirational speech the night before the race? He looks at the car and says "This is not the answer I'm looking for from you.". It's looking like the Cubs saw a proverbial puddle of fluid under Angel Guzman's shoulder in a scheduled MRI yesterday, Lou Pinella's demeanor in answering questions about Guzman yesterday suggests we should brace for bad news today. Nick Johnson - Nick Johnson should miss a day or two with a sore lower back that cropped up during BP on Friday. No one seems worried. he will sit today but could play as early as tomorrow. Mark Buehrle - Mark Buehrle says he'll basically skip his next scheduled spring training appearance after giving up one unearned run yesterday against the Dodgers. Beuhrle told the club that he'd like to limit his IP In the spring a bit. He says he'll next pitch in a game again on March 15th. There's no injury involved here, just Mark mixing up his spring routine a bit. Adeiny Hechevarria -That shot you heard was the starting pistol on the Adeiny Hechevarria sweepstakes. Hechevarria's agent says he is officially a free agent after being cleared by the Office of Foreign Assets Committee. The Yankees and Cubs are said to have great interest in the 21-year-old Cuban SS. The Angels should be involved too. Hechevarria is young and raw but is thought to be a better bat than 19-year-old Jose Inglesias who the Red Sox signed for $8M. One scout said Hechevarria would be the first overall pick in the draft if he were entering the league that way, but he had doubts as well saying that he didn't know if Hechevarria was a "can't-miss" major leaguer. Hechevarria may not be able to stick at SS because of issues with his throwing release, and he may eventually move to CF. Alex Rios - Rios who missed the White Sox exhibition opener with a sore shoulder says it's nothing to worry about. Rios says he's battled the soreness "for a few years". Rio was the White Sox DH on Friday and whiffed as part of an 0- for -3. Yep he's right ... he's fine. Tony Sanchez - The Bucs' first pick in last years draft (4th overall), catcher Tony Sanchez out of BC went deep off of the Orioles Troy Patton in yesterday's exhibition tilt. Sanchez is more noted for his defense than his bat so this was a nice plum. Tony is likely at least a year away and should open the season in High-A, In 156 ABs for West Virginia in the SAL last year, Tony hit .321 with 7 HRs (15 doubles, .561 SLG%) and 34 Ks (21.9%) against 20 walks (11.2%). His .321 was helped by the tailwind of a .356 BHIP% but obviously there's some stick to work with here. Jarrod Washburn - Fox reports that the Tigers are still interested in free agent left-hander Jarrod Washburn but they want to wait out Brandon Webb a little before trying to make a move on him. The Mariners are also said to be interested and a season at Safeco would make Washburn a lot more interesting. Ben Sheets - Sheets wasn't overpowering in his outing on Friday against the Brewers who got to him for 4 singles and 2 runs in 5 outs. The real gauge in this particular outing however was that Ben could complete it and of course how his elbow responds today. There's no reason to be terribly worried, Ben's entire panel looks green at this point. The way Billy Beane hopes this works is that Sheets stays healthy and pitches well into the summer at which point Beane can trade him and his one-year-at-$10M-plus-incentives contract to a contender. Sheets could be very effective in the Coliseum and be a valuable asset in AL-only leagues. Keep his injury history in mind however and realize there's no telling where, or even whether, he'll be pitching on August 1st. Brendon Snyder - Orioles 1B prospect Brandon Snyder left Friday's game after being plunked on the left knee by the Pirates' Ramon Aguero. The Orioles called his removal from the game a precaution and he could be back in the lineup as early as today. Justin Masterson - A nice outing for Justin Masterson on Friday against the Reds as he hamstrung the Reds regulars in two scoreless IP. Justin allowed just one hit and coaxed 3 groundball outs and 3 whiffs out of the Reds. The amount of ground balls he throws is a key indicator for Justin as a starter although he can show true punch-out ability on occasion. if Justin were pitching in the NL this year he'd have a chance to excel. In the AL however, it remains to be seen whether Masterson will remain a tease or whether he's ready to assume a full time starting role in the majors. He should be available at a reasonable price in most leagues and he's worthy of a late flier as a reserve starter in AL-only leagues (you should allow yourself to cherry pick his starts and be able to reserve him during rough stretches this year. Justin shouldn't be a guy you depend on). If you get him cheaply enough you could see a significant dividend this year. ]]>

2010 Diamond Challenge Preview - Part 3

2010-03-06T02:48:18Z

Up the Middle
The Shortstops Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE) 740 - I like Asdrubal Cabrera as a safe, lower priced option at the SS position. He should be a well balanced player, who doesn’t impress in any one single category, but he won’t hurt you in any either. His downside is his power (only 6 HR in 523 at bats last season), but as I noted in the February 23rd edition of Preseason Prep, his huge increase in doubles and extra base hits should translate into at least double digit homers this season. He was a bit lucky with his balls hit in play last season, but there’s no reason to expect anything less than a .290 batting average. At 23 last season Cabrera already posted an above average contact rate (83%) and LD rate (22%), while posting an infield fly ball percentage of an extremely low 1.6%. This is not a hitter that gives away outs. Fantistics has him projected to hit .298 with 14 HR, 86 R, 74 RBI, and 19 SB. While I don’t see a whole lot of upside with Cabrera, I also don’t see too much risk, especially at a position where most players under the 1k mark come with very little stability.
Alcides Escobar (MLW) 400 - Escobar is definitely one of the riskier picks on my team. His EYE has been pretty terrible throughout his minor league career as a result of low walk rates (around 5%). The good news, though, is that Escobar still makes a lot of contact, around 85% of the time throughout his time in the minors and 85.6% of the time 125 major league at bats last season. So, where does that leave us? Basically, we have a guy who we hope can steal 30+ and score an acceptable amount of runs and won’t hurt us in average but provides almost no power. You get what you pay for though, and there is not a lot of cheap speed to be had at the SS position. Personally, I favor Ian Desmond who I felt had more overall potential, but with the Nationals signing Adam Kennedy it certainly appears Desmond will be at AAA come Opening Day. So, to start the season, I’ll take my lumps with Escobar, and his stock rises if the Brewers ignore his OBP deficiencies and bat him in the two hole anyways. Jose Reyes (NYM) 1280 - This pick is all speculative based on Reyes’ health. Is his hamstring really completely healthy? Should we be worried about news of a thyroid imbalance that just broke today? If the answer to the former is yes and the latter is no, I can’t justify not having Reyes on my team. He is a top 5 talent who should score plenty of runs with a healthy Carlos Beltran, improved power numbers from David Wright and the addition of Jason Bay. He might not steal 78 bases like he did two years ago, but it’s not like Reyes has old tired legs. When healthy, th 26 YO could still steal 60+, and we have him projected to swipe 65.
However, if there are still concerns about Reyes’ health…
Elvis Andrus (TEX) 780 - If I don’t feel 100% comfortable with Reyes by the conclusion of Spring Training I’ll drop him from my roster for either Andrus or Everth Cabrera. Andrus’ more manageable salary will allow me to play him and Cabrera (Asdrubal) on a more consistent basis. So, if Escobar really struggles it won’t tax my cap too much to leave him on my taxi squad on a semi-regular basis. Andrus has an okay EYE of .52 and walks an okay amount (7.4%). This makes him almost a lock to steal at least 30 bases, and batting in a deep Texas lineup he should score a decent amount of runs no matter where he hits. Fantistics has him projected to score 89 runs. Like Cabrera and Escobar, though, Andrus comes with very little power.
Everth Cabrera (SD) 550 - Cabrera would be an easy selection over Andrus if not for the respective lineups surrounding the two. The Rangers were 10th in the majors in RS; the Padres sat in second last in RS at 29th in the major, which negates Cabrera’s advantage of leading off versus Andrus likely hitting ninth again. Cabrera’s .342 OBP% during his rookie season was disappointing for sure, but he does have a track record of good walk rates. At rookie ball in 2006 he walked 16.2% of the time and then 14.5% of the time in the following year at low A ball. He walked 9.3% of the time in 2008 at A ball, and last season in 438 major league plate appearances he walked 10.5% of the time. So, with these walk rates we should see Cabrera have consistent opportunities to steal bases. We have him projected for 41 SB, but the 73 he stole in just 121 games at A ball in 2008 suggest that number comes with some upside. On the other hand, Cabrera’s .52 EYE that is identical to Andrus’ EYE might suggest the two will have similar batting averages. Unfortunately for Cabrera, this is not the case because of his poor LD% of 14.8%. If he repeats that number this year, he will struggle to hit .270.
So, Cabrera has more stolen base potential and a better spot in the lineup at a cheaper salary, but Andrus is in a much better lineup and a much safer pick in regards to batting average. If forced to make my selection today, I would chose Cabrera for the higher SB potential and cheaper salary.
Why not play it safe with Hanley? Hanley Ramirez is such a talent that I cannot advise against selecting him. However, at the same price I’d rather go with the game’s best and most consistent hitter in Albert Pujols (even if he plays at a deeper position), and I do not have the cap room to carry both players. In a 5x5 format, we have Pujols at a projected auction value of about 5 dollars more than Hanley. Why? Well, Hanley’s 50 steal days are behind him and an inflated singles average last season means he will probably hit 20 – 30 points lower this season. Still a stud by all means, but is he really worth 1890? Maybe at what I’ve found to be the game’s toughest position this season, but those are the unique challenges that come with playing a game such as the DC.
I didn’t cover too many of the other higher priced options, as the complexion of my team leaves me with a lack of speed. If you have chosen to cover speed in other areas, Troy Tulowitzki is a stud and will be worth his tag. Rollins should bounce back but appears to be a tad overpriced. Yunel Escobar is a very nice safe pick at a very manageable tag, but for a middle infielder can you afford just a handful steals?
As always, please feel free to comment below. We have some intriguing issues up for discussion: Whose the better pick, Andrus or E. Cabrera? Is Hanley overpriced? Will Reyes disappoint? Does Asdrubal Cabrera’s bat come with some pop this year? Let’s hear your thoughts!

2010 Preasason Prep - March 5, 2010

2010-03-05T06:26:47Z

Tigers No. 4 and 5 starters – Detroit has a very competitive 1-2-3 with Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, and Max Scherzer, but it’s the other 40% of the rotation that could determine the club’s fate this season. A healthy Jeremy Bonderman will claim another slot, and he’s off to a good start with two scoreless innings Wednesday. Check on report of his velocity and invest a late pick if reports are good, though Bonderman’s last above-average fantasy season was back in 2006 when he notched 202 strikeouts. The rest of the competitors include Nate Robertson, recovering from elbow and groin injuries and also irrelevant since 2006, Dontrelle Willis and his widely-publicized issues, and dark horses such as Phil Coke, Eddie Bonine, Armando Galarraga, etc. Expect Robertson to be the guy if he has a decent spring, but this is probably a battle worth ignoring in all but the deepest leagues. Tigers Outfield – Manager Jim Leyland said last week that Carlos Guilin would be the full-time DH, leaving Johnny Damon in LF, Magglio Ordonez getting most of the RF at-bats, and probably rookie Austin Jackson in CF is fares okay this spring. Odd man out – Ryan Raburn coming off an impressive .291/.359/.533 stint in 261 at-bats last season. The Tigers obviously don’t think Raburn (so-so 0.43 EYE and 77% CT%) would keep those numbers up over a full season. He’ll be a super-utility guy this year, spelling all three outfields and seeing time at 2B and 3B on occasion. I’d take a flier here in deeper leagues, as Ordonez and Guillen aren’t exactly locks for 500 at-bats and if Raburn proves he can handle 3B defensively, Brandon Inge and his .230 BA and 170 strikeouts could be in trouble. Twins Third Base – The Twins whiffed on the guys they were pursuing for this job (Adrian Beltre for one), leaving this job up for grabs. The competitors aren’t exactly a who’s who of great third basemen: Nick Punto, Danny Valencia, Brendan Harris, and Matt Tolbert. Punto can draw a few walks now and then, but his .647 career OPS is more bench-worthy than staring CI worthy. Tolbert struggles vs. RHP and can’t hit for power. Harris may be the leading candidate after signing a two-year deal in January, but his career line of .267/.324/.396 only looks good stacked up against the aforementioned Tolbert/Punto combination. That leaves the 25 year-old Valencia who batted a respectable .285/.337/.446 with 14 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A last season. He’s not an elite prospect, but he’s got a good glove and 15 homer power. Take a flier on him in AL-only formats, but none of these options are especially fantasy noteworthy. Twins OF/DH Situation – Three outfield slots + DH = four jobs. Three will be filled by Denard Span (CF), Michael Cuddyer (likely RF), and Jason Kubel (LF and/or DH), leaving Delmon Young versus Jim Thome for the other at-bats. The Twins have said that Young is their guy in LF (Kubel DH), but Young is clearly at a crossroads. He’s still just 24, but he’s simply not doing enough to justify a rapidly escalating salary ($2.4MM this year, ??? in 2010). The primary culprit has been a glaring lack of plate discipline – 4% BB% and 0.21 EYE in over 1,700 big league at-bats. That could be somewhat excused (ok, not really) if he were hitting for power, but with just 12 HR per 550 at-bats, he’s not. Young reportedly came to camp down 30 lbs. over last season, so maybe he’s starting to realize that he can’t live off his past prospect status and draft position. He’s an interesting sleeper, but keep an eye on the BB/K ratio this spring more than BA. Brewers Third Base – After essentially coming out of nowhere at age 26 to bat 301/.360/.499 in 116 games, Casey McGehee enters 2010 camp as the overwhelming favorite to be the Brewers’ guy at third base. McGehee had hit .296/.345/.429 at Triple-A the previous season, but going to the big leagues and adding 85 points of OPS was a year that no preseason projections captured with any degree of accuracy. There was some luck on balls in play (.335 BABIP) and a 0.51 EYE is fine, but certainly not elite. Still, McGehee’s year is even more impressive when you consider he underwent knee surgery in October because the knee had been bothering him for a good portion of the year. So what to do with Mat Gamel? Probably trade bait. He’s at a bit of a crossroads, having put up excellent minor league numbers up until last year when his CT% mysteriously took a dive to 67%. Of even greater concern is that he’s a man without a position. Barring vastly improved defense this spring, Gamel might already be a DH-in-waiting, so perhaps a trade to an AL team would be in both parties’ best interests. Brewers No. 5 starter – According to reports, the Brewers will not factor in Jeff Suppan’s $12.5 million 2010 salary when they name their rotation this season. The top four slots are set with Gallardo, Wolf, Bush, and Davis, with Suppan and Manny Parra competing for one slot. Suppan has gotten progressively worse for Milwaukee after they signed the World Series hero to an ill-advised four-year $42 million deal three years ago. ERAs – 4.62, 4.96, and 5.29. K/9 rate is down in each of the past two to 4.5 and walks are up during the same period to 4.1/9. There’s really nothing nice to say here. Meanwhile, Manny Parra – disappointment, but still just 27. Parra has as 5.17 career ERA, but his 7.8 K/9 hints that there’s something here worth paying attention to. He’s had a consistently high BABIP, though perhaps there’s room for improvement in last year’s .365 mark and there’s certainly an opportunity to cut down on that 1.2 HR/9. It’s early, but I can see Parra winning the job with Suppan being cut despite the salary. “Sunk cost” anyone? Nick Johnson (DH-NYY) – Manager Joe Girardi has stressed the importance of on-base percentage as he debates whom to install as his No. 2 hitter. This is notable, as whoever that winds up being will be hitting behind Derek Jeter and in front of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. Illustrious company indeed. Johnson is seemingly one of two candidates for the slot, with Curtis Granderson being the other. Johnson seems like the perfect fit – career .402 OBP (.426 a year ago) and an EYE greater than 1.00 in each of the last four seasons. Granderson’s OBP numbers are far more modest - .327 last season, .344 career, and he’s accumulated 140+ strikeouts in three of the last four seasons. The Yankees may prefer his power bat lower in the order. Johnson though is already nursing a sore back, though we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt (for now) and consider it early spring soreness. A situation worth monitoring closely. Kiko Calero (RP-NYM) – The Mets’ bullpen beyond closer Francisco Rodriguez is sketchy at best, with Kelvim Escobar in an indefinite hiatus with a sore shoulder and Ryota Igarashi being a relative unknown commodity. Enter Kiko Calero. Calero was signed to a minor league deal on Thursday, a year after posing these impressive numbers – 1.95 ERA, 10.4 K/9, and just 26 hits in 60 innings for the Marlins. Concerns over the state of his shoulder kept him on the market this long, but if Calero can prove he’s healthy, he’ll be the closer-in-waiting behind the declining K-Rod. Jose Reyes (SS-NYN) – Reyes was scratched from Thursday’s lineup due to an unknown issue uncovered during an exam, but he was later cleared to resume playing. It was probably nothing serious, but this could serve to depress Reyes’ draft position that much further. It’s easy to forget he’s still just 26, but a year after playing in just 36 games due to a hamstring injury, Reyes is a long way from being a safe bet as a first round fantasy pick. I wouldn’t expect his salad days (78 SB) to return any time soon, but a healthy Reyes is still young enough to hit .290 with 40 steals and 12-15 home runs. Let’s just hope his legs cooperate. Chris Getz (2B-KC) – Getz is looking like one of the better sleepers at second base. He’s expected to supplant Alberto Callaspo as the starter, though Callaspo will get plenty of at-bats playing multiple positions (this according to manager Trey Hillman). Getz hit just .261/.324/.347 for the White Sox last season, which is nothing special, but he did maintain a strong 86% CT% and for fantasy owners, you have to look at the 25 stolen bases in just 107 games. Project that over 150 games and you’re looking at 35-40 steals with perhaps 10-12 home runs at best. Still a solid late-round option and the Royals potential lead-off hitter. Hunter Pence (OF-HOU) – Pence went 3-for-3 with a pair of homers (both in inning #4) and a double in Thursday’s game against Washington, so he’s off to a nice start this spring. Pence turns 27 next month and appears poised for a career year. He showed very impressive progress at the plate a year ago, improving his EYE from 0.32 to a respectable 0.53 and cutting his K% more than two full points. Pence though continued to hit ground balls at a surprisingly high rate of close to 53%, a number that if he could get more in the 45% range would see his HRs increase from 25 to 30+. Easier said than done, but perhaps Thursday is an early indication it’s possible. Ike Davis (1B-NYM) – Let the NY hype machine begin. The Mets have a hole at first base (sorry David Murphy fans) now that Carlos Delgado has apparently moved on, and Davis has emerged as a possibility. Davis was the club’s first-round pick in 2008 and he’s already making a push for big league time, walking twice and hitting a long grand slam in Thursday’s game. Of course the homer came off a guy who will likely be pumping gas for a living soon, but it was impressive nonetheless. Davis batted .298/.381/.524 with 31 doubles with 20 homers between High-A and Double-A last season with an adequate 0.51 EYE. Also in his favor is that he’s the superior defender to Murphy and he’ll turn 23 later this month. The time may be now despite the lack of pro experience. If that all wasn’t impressive enough, Davis also hit .341 in 85 at-bats during Arizona Fall League competition. Rickie Weeks (2B-MIL) – Weeks was 2-for-2 with a walk and stolen base on Thursday, his first game since May 2009 when he underwent wrist surgery. He’s set to be the team’s 2B and leadoff hitter, and with the big boppers behind him, Weeks could be in line for 110+ runs scored if he can remain healthy. That’s the rub of course, as Weeks has yet to tally 500 at-bats in any of his five big league seasons due to a variety of injuries. When healthy though, the former #2 overall draft pick has intriguing talent. Plate discipline? Check - .351 career OBP despite a .247 BA. Power? Check. As a second baseman, a 29.4 AB/HR rate is more than acceptable. Speed? Check, again. Weeks has 27 stolen bases per 162 games played. If healthy, a 20/30 season is certainly a reasonable goal, and with his value down due to injuries, he’s a guy to target. Aroldis Chapman (SP-CIN) - Chapman will make his much-anticipated Cactus League debut on Monday, but in the meantime, reports of his one-inning intrasquad game are glowing. Reds pitching coach Bryan Price said. "He's athletic around the mound. I wasn't disappointed in any way." Chapman tossed one scoreless innings, hitting one batter (prospect Todd Frazier on the knee with a 95 mph fastball - sorry Todd), allowing a double to top prospect Yonder Alonso, and recording a pair of strikeouts while hitting 97 on the radar gun. Now we have no idea how accurate the gun is, but I still like the number 97. Perhaps most importantly, Chapman's changeup drew rave reviews, as that was the one pitch that had detractors. All signs seem to point to his being the Reds' No. 5 starter, though there are financial incentives in Chapman's contract that make it worth the Reds' while to have him start in Triple-A. Jordan Schafer (OF-ATL) - Remember this guy? Schafer is still working his way back from a wrist injury and won't be ready for game action for another week. He got a ton of hype last spring, won the CF job out of spring training, but hit just .204 and found himself in Triple-A come June. It was later revealed he'd been playing with a wrist injury that eventually required surgery, so look past the down 2009, realize he's still just 23, and grab yourself a steal. Schafer recorded an impressive 14% BB% in Double-A in 2008 while also putting up a .202 ISO as a 21 year-old. He has 20/20 potential and while he'll open 2010 in Triple-A, this is a guy to keep an eye on. Jason Castro (C-HOU) – The starting catcher job battle in Houston is worth watching, with Castro and J.R. Towels battling for the job. Towles was 2-for-3 with Castro going 1-fo-4 on Thursday.. Long term the Astros are probably better off having Castro open the year in Triple-A, as Castro is clearly the superior prospect after batting .300/.380/.446 with 10 homers and 73 RBI in 446 at-bats. Between High-A and Double-A a year ago. He has top-10 catcher upside.

2010 Preseason Prep - March 4, 2010

2010-03-04T05:48:08Z

Dodgers Backup Outfielders – The top three is obviously set with Manny, Kemp, and Ethier, but what about the backups? Reed Johnson was signed this winter to be the No. 4 OF, and he brings with him, a .329/.395/.483 line versus LHP since 2007. Competition for the same-side hitting challenged Andre Ethier? Considering Ethier’s top-10 NL MVP finish, that would seem foolish until you see Ethier’s line versus southpaws a year ago: .194/.283/.345. Ethier will be given a shot to prove he’s improved versus LHP, but if he struggles, Johnson will get some of those at-bats. Dodgers No. 5 starter – The one name I neglected to mention last week was Eric Stults and it appears Stults is the (very) early favorite for the job. Stults has the advantage of throwing from the left side, and he already has two big league shutouts on his resume in 24 starts spread over parts of four seasons. Of course Stults also sports a 4.84 ERA, 5.9 K/9, and 3.9 BB/9 in those 145 innings, so expect James McDonald, Scott Elbert, and others to make a push this month. In Stults’ favor as well is that he’s out of minor league options (ditto Charlie Haeger). Giants No. 5 starter – It’s still early, but Madison Bumgarner was in the 87-89 mph range with his fastball Wednesday while tossing a pair of scoreless innings in his Cactus League debut. Bumgarner got by with deception and diminished velocity over the second half of last season as well, so this bears watching. At this point, we’ll have to consider Todd Wellemeyer the early favorite for the No. 5 starter job. The lack of velocity resulted in Bumgarners K/9 dropping from 10.5 in Low-A in 2008 to just 5.8 last year in Double-A, and with a .241 BABIP, there's reason to be concerned, particularly if he can't find that other 5 mph hour that seems to have vanished. Giants Right Fielder – Nate Schierholz had an RBI single in Wednesday’s Cactus League opener and seems to have the early lead to garner the majority of the RF at-bats. Don’t rule out Brian Sabean signing a veteran to compete this month, but this battle appears to be Schierholz v. Fred Lewis. Diamondbacks’ No. 4 and 5 starters – This should be Ian Kennedy for sure, and likely Billy Buckner. Buckner is interesting. Sure, the 6.10 ERA last year was scary, but a 64:29 K:BB in 77.1 innings isn’t that bad. Factor in a .347 BABIP and unusual 61.3% LOB% and you have a guy capable of lowering his ERA into the middle fours. He’s a decent NL-only league sleeper. Diamondbacks’ top set-up man – This is Juan Gutierrez’s job to lose. Keep in mind here that Chad Qualls is getting expensive, is 31, and is coming off a knee injury. Should Qualls go down or find himself on the block come July (unlikely given Arizona should be competitive this year), Gutierrez could be in line to close in the future. Emmanuel Burriss (SS-SF) – Burriss felt pain in his foot (the one operated on last season) legging out a double on Wednesday and will likely undergo tests this week. That’s clearly a setback for Burriss, so those hoping for a very cheap source of stolen bases ought to look elsewhere. A guy with no power and just a 6% BB% last year shouldn’t really be on your radar anyway. He’s not a future regular. Josh Bell (3B-BAL) – Bell seems to have little chance at opening in the big leagues once camp breaks, but he’s already off to a nice start. Bell blasted two homers in Wednesday’s game (one off Matt Garza) in his only two at-bats while DHing. Tejada meanwhile played the field and made an error while going 1-for-3. Bell has 30 HR (or more) upside, but needs to learn to hit LHP consistently (he’s a switch-hitter) if he wants to be the O’s starting 3B late this year or in 2011. Bell posted a 0.62 EYE and 78.1% CT% in Double-A last year, so there are some skills here. Sean Rodriguez (2B/OF – TB) – Rodriguez homered in one of his two at-bats on Wednesday as he’s off to a good start in attempting to win a utility job. In theory, he could be the Opening Day 2B if he outshines Matt Joyce (Ben Zobrist to RF). Rodriguez has plenty of power potential (30 HR in 385 Triple-A at-bats last year), but he also made contact just 68.3% of the time, leading to projections that he’s a .260 major league hitter at best. S-Rod is also getting time at shortstop this spring, and his versatility could net him upwards of 300 at-bats, making him a solid AL-only sleeper. Huston Street (RP-COL) – Sore arms are always the rage at this point in camp, and most of these reports turn out to be nothing more than a case of “working out the kinks”. With that caveat in mind, Street is taking anti-inflammatory medication for a sore shoulder this spring. Keep an eye on his progress this month as a result, but all indications are that this is nothing to worry about. Street’s BABIP was 21 points below his career total last season, so that’s somewhat of a concern and more ominous (pure speculation here) is the connection to Dr. Tony Galea, wanted for importing and using banned drugs. Probably nothing. Travis Snider (OF-TOR) – It’s always interesting to scan early spring boxscores. Manager Cito Gaston so far is living up to his promise to try the immortal Jose Bautista in the leadoff spot, and he went with a lineup that should look pretty similar come Opening Day. That’s why it was rather surprising (disturbing?) to see Snider all the way down in the nine-hole, even behind Alex Gonzalez and his .689 career OPS. Snider of course has been a highly-touted hitting prospect for a couple years, but it’s looking like his value this year (hitting ninth doesn’t help) won’t be as high as we’d hoped. Snider is still young (22 last month), but this is a guy who put up a 1.094 OPS last year in Triple-A as a 21 year-old. The minor league BABIPs have been astronomical, but they’ve been astronomical consistently, so perhaps he can be a .280 hitter in the big leagues despite a CT% that hovers in the 70% area. Let’s just hope he gets the chance this year. Justin Upton (OF-ARI) - The D-backs Wednesday inked Upton to a six-year deal with just north of $51 million, a deal that's going to look like an absolute steal in a year or two. Why? Upton is on the verge of being a top-five fantasy pick, a perennial .300/.400/.600 type player. To put that into context, just three players topped a 1.000 OPS last season - Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer, and Prince Fielder. Illustrious company indeed. Honestly, I find it tough to project a guy who put up a .899 OPS as a 21 year-old in the big leagues. Upton's CT% jumped from 66% to a still-low 74% and he even stole 20 bases. The sky is the limit here, and the Ken Griffey Jr. comparisons are dead on. Garrett Anderson (OF-LAD) - Anderson signed a minor league deal Wednesday to return to Southern California, this time with the Dodgers. Anderson batted just 268/.303/.401 for the Braves last season and will serve as the team's fifth outfielder and primary left-handed pinch-hitter should he make the Opening Day roster. With the starting OF set and Reed Johnson the fourth outfielder, there don't appear to be many at-bats available for GA, so he can be safely ignored barring an injury to the big three. Austin Jackson (OF-DET) - Jackson found himself leading off for Detroit in Wednesday's game, going 1-for-2 with a walk. That's the good news. The bad? He was not only caught stealing, but was also picked off first the other time he was on base. Meanwhile, a sleeper for time in CF this year, Casper Wells, homered in his only at-bat. Obviously one game means very little, but Jackson clearly has work to do on the basepaths before Jim Leyland can trust him as his leadoff man. David Ortiz (DH-BOS) - Okay, so it was against that AL East juggernaut Northeastern University, but it was still nice to see Ortiz go deep on Wednesday. I'm probably more bullish on him than most this year despite the .238 BA and generally disappointing season. Big Papi is still just 34, so we're not talking Ken Griffey Jr. last legs here, and 28-99 is respectable enough considering his slow start. A few other reasons: a .284/.390/.557 September, hitting coach Dave Magadan saying that Ortiz's mechanics have improved "significantly" this spring compared to last year, and that he appears heathier and lighter compared to last year. I'm normally wary of the "best shape of his life" type spring stories, but there's a lot to like here. Yes, his BB% (12%) has dropped three years running and his CT% is way down compared to 2007, but I still think .270-30-100 is easily reachable this year. Of added incentive (if you buy this theory), Ortiz is in a contract year. Lou Marson (C-CLE) – Marson appears to be the early favorite for the Indians’ Opening Day starting catcher job. It’s early and Carlos Santana still the future (with a summer 2010 ETA), but Marson has the skills to at least keep the spot warm for Santana for a few months. A career .274/.369/.386 minor league hitter, Marson’s skills are obvious (0.69 EYE) and limited (63.4 AB/HR). He’s far more valuable in leagues that use OBP as a category, but overall, don’t expect much should he wind up as the starter.

Preseason Prep - March 3rd, 2010

2010-03-03T08:17:20Z

Cubs Bullpen: One of the least talked about situations in fantasy baseball is the Cubs bullpen. With Carlos Marmol, a long-time fantasy darling, securing the role last season (1.84 ERA, 63 K’s in 44 innings in Save opportunities) most fantasy pundits have ignored the weakness in Marmol’s credentials (8.2 BB+HBP/9 in Save situations, 9.3 BB+HBP/9 in non-save situations) and instead focused on the solid Save Conversion Rate (78%) and high K Rate (11.3/9). But why should you be concerned about Carlos Marmol? Let’s take a look at Marmol’s peripherals over the last 3 years K/9 BB+HBP/9 GB Rate Avg FB Velocity 2007 12.5 5.1 31.3% 93.3 2008 11.7 4.8 34.6% 93.7 2009 11.3 9.4 35.8% 94 On the plus side, Marmol’s GB Rate has been making slight improvements and his ability to limit the long-ball over the last 3 years despite sub-standard GB Rates is attributable to just how difficult Marmol is to hit. Of course the concerning trend here is the obscene lack of control coupled with a mildly declining K Rate. While big jumps in lack of command can often signal potential arm problems, Marmol’s velocity has actually increased over the last few years, suggesting health may not be a concern. If Marmol can simply reign in the control, he’ll be back to an elite closer, right? That certainly would be the case, but I can’t get past that enormous walk rate. Marmol has been one of the most leaned on relievers in baseball over the last 3 years, averaging over 77 IP per season and while the fastball velocity has maintained (even risen), I’m concerned the usage patterns over the last 3 seasons has had some potential long-term effects on Marmol’s health and/or his command. Obviously if the health becomes an issue we need to identify an alternative, but if the command remains an issue as it did in 2009, we’d also need to identify an alternative. Unfortunately, identifying an alternative is difficult in a young and inexperienced Cubs bullpen and is another primary reasons most fantasy analysts have ignored the Cubs bullpen situation. John Grabow was paid as a setup man, but his 1.44 career WHIP suggests a closer’s role would never work. Angel Guzman has the stuff 8.2 career K/9, 1.05 WHIP last season , but his health has always be in question and he’s already complained of shoulder soreness in the spring. The rest of the bullpen is a mix of young journeymen and non-prospects, but one name in camp stands out: Andrew Cashner. Cashner was the Cubs 1st round pick in 2008 after spending much of his college career closing for TCU. Cashner was considered a fast-moving relief prospect, but the Cubs had other ideas trying him out as a starter. Cashner possesses a high octane fastball along with a hard breaking slider that helped him put together a 13.3 K/9 in college. As he’s advanced through the minors as a starter his K Rate has fallen (just 7.0 K/9), but he’s remained very difficult to hit (7.5 H/9). Given the strong K Rates in college, you’d imagine his stuff would play up out of a relief role and given the pedigree (originally deemed a fast-moving college relief prospect), Cashner is the most intriguing guy in the Cubs camp this spring. He’s received glowing reports within the Cubs organization and Lou Pineilla made comments on Tuesday indicating Cashner could break camp with the club. While Marmol will enter the season with a strangle-hold on the closer’s role, health and command could become an issue. There aren’t many internal options to close for the Cubs and Cashner’s pedigree makes him someone to watch in camp this spring. The only other name worth mentioning is Jeff Stevens, who has closed before in the minors and compiled a rather strong minor league resume (9.9 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.12 WHIP). Stevens didn’t make much of an impression on Lou Pineilla last season so I’m a bit skeptical of his opportunity in camp. Cubs Battle for the 5th Rotation Spot: With Ted Lilly likely to start the season on the DL, the Cubs will have an in-season battle for the 5th starter’s slot in the rotation. Tom Gorzelanny, Carlos Silva, Sean Marshall, and Jeff Samardzija figure to round out the competition. Although Silva is the mostly highly compensated, it would be a significant surprise if he were able to win the job. Sean Marshall and Jeff Samardzija are both young former prospects that have shown glimpses of putting it together, but generally been identified as better fits in the pen than in the rotation by manager Lou Pineilla. This leaves Tom Gorzelanny, who was perceived as the smaller piece of the deadline deal that brought John Grabow over last season. After coming over, Gorzelanny pitched extremely well in a brief stint at the end of the season, posting an FIP of 3.91 in his combined stints last season. Gorzelanny has had extended success at the minor league level (career 1.12 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9), but outside of a decent 2007 hasn’t been able to put it together at the major league level. His main culprit has been an inability to generate swings and misses, but last season his Contact % dropped from 81% (where it had been much of his career) to 77%, while his first strike % increased over 2%. More strikes and more swings and misses in a short stint last season could be the beginning of a breakthrough for the 27 year old. For NL-only leagues Gorzelanny is a nice upside gamble in the rotation based on the terrific minor league numbers and his competition bears monitoring during the spring. Rays RF/DH: The Rays project to be one of the best offenses in all of baseball and a team that could generate some nice offensive sleepers. With their willingness to use platoon advantages and defensive flexibility the Rays tend to open up a lot of AB’s for opportunity. This was the same team that brought both Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist to fantasy stardom last year. This year the most obvious areas of opportunity are at the DH and RF spot. Last year Matt Joyce was brought in for Edwin Jackson and was supposed to be the LH mashing side of the RF platoon but Joyce struggled early and was sent back down to Durham. A similar bust for 2009 was the FA signing of Pat Burrell. At 32 it appeared Burrell’s skill set fell off a cliff as his ISO dropped down to .146 and his K Rate jumped 3%. Both players will get a shot to rebound in 2010 and while each have some power intrigue and certain RBI potential in a loaded Rays lineup, I’m not sure either has much upside beyond AL-only formats. Fortunately, there is someone in the Rays camp that has significant upside and warrants monitoring. Desmond Jennings had never been able to stay healthy and show off his elite skills, until last season. At AA and AAA Jennings was able to play 132 games and posted a combined line of .318/.401/.487 with a 1.00 EYE and 52 SB’s in 59 attempts. Elite athleticism combined with a refined approach at the plate, Jennings has all the makings of a stud both in real life and in fantasy. The Rays have not only shown a willingness to give young players chances to earn playing time, but they’re focus on the defensive end could lead to them unveiling an OF of Crawford, Jennings, Upton that would rival the Mariners for the best defensive OF in all of baseball. Strasburg and Heyward will get all the attention this spring, but Desmond Jennings deserves your awareness as well. Can BJ Upton rebound? After posting an .894 OPS at the age of 22 few would imagine BJ Upton would’ve seen consecutive seasons in which his OPS has fallen nearly 100 additional points, but after last season’s miserable .684 OPS that’s where we are with BJ Upton. Even amidst a miserable season that saw Upton hit .241/.313/.373 he still provided fantasy owners with 11 HR’s and 42 SB’s. Looking through all the numbres there’s little trend to indicate which version of Upton over the years is for real. It’s clear the 2007 season looks like an anomaly when compared to the rest of his major league career, but being able to put that line up as a 22 year old and combined with his former top prospect pedigree, its hard to discount. The good news when projecting Upton is the 2009 season would seem to be a floor. He’s not going to lose time in CF as he’s an excellent defender and the Rays lineup can afford Upton’s offensive contributions even if they’re similar to last season. While Upton won’t come with a discount on draft day as owners still will pay a premium for Upton’s power-speed combo, the floor for Upton seems to be known (40+ SB’s, low BA, double-digit HRs). Given that the high end of the projection would be a 25-45 season with a .280 average, owners willing to take risk should be willing to pay mid-round value for Upton’s upside. While our system looks to find value and judges Upton’s inconsistency and low BA contributions as unworthy of a 6th rd selection, fantasy owners willing to bet on talent can take solace in Upton’s floor being a 10-40 season. How Good can Brett Anderson be? There are few “sleeper” pitchers this year rising faster than Oakland’s Brett Anderson. When fantasy analysts talk about the pitching trifecta they’re focused on Strikeouts, Walks, and Ground Balls. Those are the three statistics that help pitchers control the three true outcomes (strikeout, walk, HR). So when you see a guy post a 7.7 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, and 51% GB Rate in their first full season in the bigs after posting a 9.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 56% GB Rate at the minor league level… well you get excited. Then you add in the fact he pitches in one of the best environments in all of baseball, behind a team that has placed an added emphasis on defense in recent years, and you get the hype machine that is Brett Anderson. His ADP has crept up into the mid 120’s overall, and owners may start to question at what point is he overvalued? Other owners looking for upside might wonder “How good can he be?” Like every young pitcher Anderson has some risk associated with him. He eclipsed the dreaded Verducci Rule last season, topping his previous season high in innings by over 50. In addition he struggled early in the season getting swings and misses, generating a K Rate of just 6.6 K/9 when he struggled to just a 4.64 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. The innings bump combined with the struggles in the 1st half might be a concern and help set a potential low floor which can be worrisome. However, I look at the elite minor league numbers coupled with a monstrous 2nd half (3.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.8 K/9) and I see a Top 20 SP. I’m drafting him ahead of established veterans like Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano, and even John Lackey. I’ve pushed him up my own draft board towards the group with Beckett, Nolasco, Vazquez, Peavy, etc. While he won’t get much run support in Oakland and he does carry some elevated risk particularly with the innings bump, the elite GB, K, and BB combination is unique. In most elite pitchers you’ll get 2 of the 3, but very few will you find with a chance to be elite in all 3 AND pitch in one of the best environments in all of baseball. Player Blurbs: Huston Street – Street revealed he’s had some shoulder tightness that has slowed his spring throwing program down. Street downplayed the issue suggesting last year’s September flare-up which cost him three weeks was far more significant. Street’s balky shoulder is worth monitoring, but his return to elite skills last year will continue to make Street a 2nd tier closing option. Kendry Morales – Morales officially was able to report to camp on Tuesday after struggling with green-card issues. Morales reported in good shape and manager Mike Scioscia indicated Kendry was good to go. Coming off his breakout 2009 season we’re projecting Morales to maintain his production while having some elevated risk to repeat based on his poor career EYE and heavy reliance on XBH% that was well above his career major and minor league numbers. At age 27 he still has some mild room for growth, but it’s most likely ’09 is close to the peak. Stephen Strasburg – While Jim Riggleman may want Strasburg in his opening day rotation (as he’s indicated in previous quotes this spring), he was back in line with management’s stance on Tuesday. Riggleman indicated Strasburg was likely to start the year in the minors citing the usual reasons such as his need to get the experience and its best for him, etc; but we all know the Nats are doing the smart thing here for the organization. They can delay Strasburg’s arbitration clock for another year and generate buzz surrounding his first start once the allure of the “hope springs eternal” wears off sometime in May or June. While Strasburg isn’t likely to get more than 25 starts at the big league level this season, we still view him as an impact pitcher right off the bat, similar to Mark Prior. While others are lamenting the likely mid-season call-up and the wasted roster spot until then, for leagues with deep benches we view Strasburg as a terrific value based on where he’s being draft currently. Draft late and remain patient and be ready to reap the rewards come June. Tommy Hanson – Tommy Hanson had little left to prove against minor league competition after blowing through the minors last season and having sustained success in the 2nd half of last season at the big league level, so the Mets starting lineup of non-regulars on Tuesday was no match for Hanson. He breezed through 2 clean innings allowing 1 single, while striking out 3. Hanson may have had some good luck on his side last year with a high strand rate and low BABIP, but his terrific K Rate should take more steps forward with some more experience. We’re looking for a low 3’s ERA, mid 1.2’s WHIP and just under a K/I, making Hanson a solid #3 SP, back-end #2 SP. Jason Heyward – A subtlely magnificent debut just seems right for Jason Heyward. In his first spring training game of the season he went 1-1 with 2 BB’s, while doing so against big leaguers who rely on off-speed stuff like Nelson Figueroa and Elmer Dessens. From a statistical profile there are few prospects who have been as impressive as Heyward. The incredible plate discipline and advanced approach at a young age coupled with almost unbelievable power for a 19 year old (.555 Slugging % across A-AA-AAA last season). There isn’t a weakness in his game and the Braves brass is already enamored with him. While most clubs will hold back prospects to delay there arbitration clock, the Braves appear ready to hand the reigns over to Heyward. In Bobby Cox’s last season, I can’t imagine the Braves holding back any shot Bobby has at winning another division crown. Look for Heyward to be in the starting lineup from day 1 and while the truly elite fantasy numbers may not come for another year or two (he’s only 20), he’s more advanced at the plate than a guy like Justin Upton when he came up at 20. At the current price of a 20th rd draft pick, sign me up. Josh Hamilton – Hamilton returned to spring drills on Tuesday but won’t likely play in the Rangers spring opener. Hamilton’s draft stock has been way depressed after last season’s injury plagued campaign and the early spring shoulder issues have only pushed him down further. I recently landed Hamilton in the 8th rd of a 10 team league, which at that price I felt was an incredible steal. When factoring in high upside injury risks like Hamilton, who was just valued as a 1st-2nd rd pick as recent as last season, owners should remember they can always trade the commodity early in the season. While Hamilton might not be a great bet to play 150 games, I’ll only need 40 or so healthy ones before I can deal him for a more reliable top 3 rd pick and pocket a profit. Don’t get spooked by minor bumps and bruises in spring and keep in mind the ability to trade injury-prone players early in the season if they’re elite talents like Hamilton. Lance Berkman – Berkman has been diagnosed with a knee contusion that will cost him some time early in spring training. Berkman’s been identified by much of the fantasy community of late as a nice value, falling into the 6th and 7th rd. That value has been eroding away as more sights tout the potential bargain, but Berkman’s knee injury should help push that ADP back down a bit. Berkman’s skills showed little erosion last season, but luck and lack of lineup support played a big role in his deflated numbers. Look for a nice bounce-back this season, especially in average and likely some pop as well. We’ve got Lance projected for 30 HR’s and a .290 average along with 90+ Runs and RBI’s, which would make him an appropriate 5th-6th rd value, who had been dropping into the 7th rd. Brian Roberts – Roberts was diagnosed with a herniated disc in his back that will sideline him for the first week of the spring. The scarcity at 2B is keeping Roberts ADP pretty high (mid-4th rd selection) but the injury coupled with the lack of “sexiness” associated with Roberts at 2B should drive him to the bottom of his tier. While Roberts doesn’t have the pop of some of his counterparts he’s been a consitent AVG-R-SB contributor and the Orioles lineup should only improve this season with a young and talented offense playing in a great home park. Although his skills are declining mildly (EYE has been eroding), his surrounding cast has been improving and will help hold up Roberts value for another year. Starlin Castro – No prospect received more of a rise in prospect rankings and hype machine than Starlin Castro through last season and the Arizona Fall League. The 19 year old was promoted aggressively through the Cubs minor league system last season holding his own at AA after succeeding at high A. He has great hand-eye coordination and flashes a plus glove already. Scouts believe he’ll fill out and eventually add some power to the already strong approach at the plate. On Tuesday we continued to get an indication that Lou Pineilla was buying into some of the hype as well. Pineilla indicated he may start Castro in the leadoff spot for the spring opener and continued to push the idea that Castro can make the club out of camp. Having just 122 PA’s above A ball, Castro needs more time in the minors to develop. As a fantasy asset he doesn’t have elite base-stealing ability and at 19 his body isn’t close to producing power at the big league level. As a result he has little fantasy upside for this season, though dynasty and keeper league owners should keep an eye on his development. Johan Santana – The Mets indicated Johan is still on pace to start on opening day. While Johan’s ADP will likely rise with each spring outing and each move closer to opening day, I’ll likely be on the outside looking in. There are enough red flags with Santana’s peripherals that I’m concerned. His K/9 has dropped considerably despite moving to a far easier league to pitch in, while his BB/9 has also risen each of the last two years. Perhaps the elbow issue was the problem and now it’s cleaned up, but I’m skeptical. Johan still posted elite numbers last season (3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP), but as the contact rate has risen (up to 78.4%, settled around 73-74% in MIN), Johan’s fantasy value has plummeted. The ratios are important but without the K’s he starts to fall down the draft board. Fantistics is projecting a recovery in the K Rate this year and an indication of faith in his elbow, but personally I’m not there. I’d rather take Jon Lester and his Lincecum-like peripherals a round later. ]]>

2010 Preseason Prep - March 2, 2010

2010-03-02T06:35:43Z

Cincinnati Reds Chris Dickerson - Dickerson is a tad upset after he was passed over for a shot at the Reds’ CF job, which is likely to go to rookie Drew Stubbs. This leaves Dickerson most likely in a platoon situation with Johnny Gomes at LF. Dickerson does offer some speed, as Fantistics has him projected for 15 stolen bases in just 357 at bats. Dickerson has flashed speed at the minor league level swiping 30 bags over AA-AAA in 2007 and 31 bags over AAA-ML in 2008. However, he is unlikely to hit for a good average, as he has struck out an awful lot throughout his entire professional career (although he does have a decent walk rate). In his first go around at AAA in 2007, over 354 at bats, Dickerson struck out 37% of the time, and he had three other stints at professional levels in which he struck out a third of the time. Also, in brief stints at the major league level the past two seasons, Dickerson has hit just .259/.362/.345 (AVG/OBP/SLG) verses LHP. Clearly, he is better suited for the platoon situation that he is being given rather than an everyday starter.
Joey Votto - Votto is really a special talent. He has an okay EYE of .66 and a whopping XBH% of 13.6%. Good news for Votto in the power department is he developed more loft in his swing last season. His FB% grew from 30.7% in his rookie season to 39.3% last season. He was also better at keeping pitchers honest, as you can tell by his increased walk rate. In ’08 Votto walked 10% of the time, which is right around the league average, but that grew a respectable amount to 12.9% last season. This should also aid Votto in his developing power as he forces pitchers to come into the strike zone. Fantistics currently has him projected as the 11th rated hitter in 5x5 roto leagues, which makes him a steal in the mid third round, which is where his current ADP is.
Pittsburgh Pirates Lastings Milledge - Pirates fans are hoping for a breakout season from Milledge, a former top prospect in the Mets organization, quoting his new sense of maturity and stable playing time situation as catalysts for such a season. Milledge is just 24 YO and certainly has time to turn things around, but I don’t see anything more than an average to below average season on the horizon. He has average power (career 9.5 HR/FB%, 5.3 last season), and his 4 year ISO’s of .139/.174/.134/.094 don’t indicate any power surge in the near future. His low walk rate (career 6.1%, 4.9 last season) and career EYE of .34 means he’s swinging at pitchers’ pitches most of the time, making him a batting average risk. My main problem with Milledge is the lack of improvement in his game over stints in the major leagues in 4 straight years (166, 184, 534, 244 at bats from ’06-’09), and as much as it’s nice to hear about a player maturing off the field, it’s doubtful to make him a more patient or powerful hitter.
Zach Duke - On the surface it appears that Duke could be poised for a breakout season; he’s 26 YO and his ERA’s have been trending downward: 5.53/4.82/4.06 the past three seasons. His biggest asset is his ability to induce ground balls, which he has 49.1% of the time throughout his career. Still, those expecting Duke to continue to improve and post the first sub-4 ERA (over a full season) of his career better think again. He does have a low walk rate, but his career K/9 of 4.57 is extremely poor. It’s hard to be an effective pitcher when striking out a batter just once every other inning. Furthermore, his 4.06 ERA last season was aided by a lucky BABIP of .296 when compared to his career average of .321. His FIP and xFIP ERA’s were 4.24 and 4.31 respectively. Also, his LOB% was 72.6%; it was 67.9 and 67.2 in ’07 and ’08. In 2010 his LOB% again should be around 67-68%, rather than what it was last season. Duke simply does not strike out enough batters to maintain that strand rate. As a result, Fantistics has Duke projected for a 4.64 ERA.
Colorado Rockies Carlos Gonzalez - One of our favorites to breakout at the OF position this year is Colorado’s Carlos Gonzalez. Gonzalez came over to Colorado from Oakland in the Matt Holliday deal. He is a nice 5-tool player, who could approach 20/20 status this year. Fantistics has him projected for 24 HR and 24 SB. He made huge improvements at the plate last season. In 2008, he struggled mightily in 302 at bats for Oakland. He barely walked (4.1% of the time) and struck out an awful lot (26.7% of the time) leading to a horrendous .16 EYE. Last season that EYE grew dramatically in 278 at bats for Colorado as it finished the season at .40, thanks to Gonzalez more than doubling his walk rate. He also flashed tremendous power (a 16.7HR/FB%) and got decent loft (.97 GB/FB rate) giving him immediate 30 HR potential, all without damage to his number of line drives. Gonzalez smoked the ball to the tune of a 23.4% LD rate. If Gonzalez can maintain that LD rate and continue to see improvement in his EYE, there is some upside to our projected BA of .282. He’ll put up Carlos Beltran type numbers, except Gonzalez has more upside and is being drafted nearly four rounds later.
Jeff Francis - Francis is one of the Rockies’ major stories this Spring Training, as he attempts to complete his recovery from arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder. So far so good, as his early Spring Training pitching sessions have come without drawing any red flags. He will pitch in an intra-squad game against the Giants on Friday, and a successful outing there would go a long way towards Francis making the Colorado rotation. This would certainly be good news for the Rockies, but they shouldn’t expect another 17 win season out of Francis, even if he is fully recovered, like the one he achieved in 2007 (his last full season before the shoulder injury). His deserved win total was 14, and while he is a perfectly adequate starter, he is far from the ace that some in Colorado expect. He has a low K/9 of 6.20, and his K/BB ratio is an unspectacular 2.03. Meanwhile, his career GB% of 42.7 is not enough to make up for his mediocre K rate.
Aaron Hill (TOR) - I had Aaron Hill pegged as a potential breakout player last season, and he followed through big time. However, if he hopes to repeat his ’09 season, he is going to have to do away with some disturbing second half trends. Over that second half, Hill started chasing pitches, and his overall numbers reflect that as his BB rate of 5.7% was the worst of his career. Meanwhile, he swung at pitches outside of the strike zone 26.3% of the time or 1.3 percentage points more than the league average and more disturbingly 4.8 percentage points more than his career average. Hill can certainly approach his ’09 numbers again this season, but not if he continues to chase pitches.
Casey Kotchmann (SEA) - Kotchmann hopes to hit for more power this season, but that’s a song and dance I’ve heard before. I was real high on Kotchmann heading into the 2008 season, but neither in that season nor last season did he take any strides towards developing enough power to make him a factor at first base in fantasy baseball. His career HR/FB% of 8.9% is below the major league average for ALL hitters, let alone first basemen. To make matters worse, Kotchmann’s GB/FB ratios of the past three seasons are 1.52/1.78/1.75; those are more in line with speedsters that try to hit the ball on the ground rather than a 1B attempting to develop power. Don’t buy Kotchmann’s desire to hit for more power until you see a quantifiable progression.
Rickie Weeks (MLW) - Weeks is a classic risk/reward pick. He is very injury prone (averaging 350 at bats a season over 5 seasons), and he will always be a batting average risk (26.3 K%). However, as per usual for Weeks, he comes with a lot of upside. For starters, he does have the ability to get on base despite his high K rate because he walks 11% of the time for his career. He also has a lot of power for a 2B; his career HR/FB% is 12.5%. Weeks enters the season at the peak age of 27, and if he can stay healthy and finally get a little bit of luck (.212 and .215 singles averages in ‘07/’08), he could have a breakout year. If he could ever get a full season’s worth of at bats, 20/20 is a near certainty, and his RS potential is unbelievable with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder hitting behind him.
Nolan Reimold (BAL) - Reimold is poised for a breakout season. He posted a respectable .61 EYE in his rookie year, and his outside swing percentage of 20.5% (nearly 5 percentage points below league average) demonstrates his ability to stay patient at the plate at a young age. This makes him low risk in the batting average department for a young OF, and it is not at the expense of power. Reimold has always posted above average ISO’s. Last season he had a ridiculous .349 ISO in 109 AAA at bats (his first go around there might I add) before making his major league debut. He then went on to post a .187 ISO, 32 points above league average, in 358 at bats with the big league club.
Roy Halladay (PHI) - Halladay has been one of the league’s top pitchers for years, and his move to Philly from Toronto should only up his stock. I mean, we all saw what Javier Vazquez was able to accomplish after switching to the NL last season. More important than that, Halladay goes from facing three top offensive clubs (TB, BOS, NYY) on a consistent basis to facing a much far less challenging division. Oh, and he also goes from a perennial non-contender to the NL’s World Series representative in each of the past two seasons. It’s scary to ponder the thought, but this could be Halladay’s best season yet.
Matt Cain (SF) - Cain had a breakout season last year. His ERA dropped almost a full point, and his win total almost doubled. So, has the hyped Matt Cain arrived? Well, he’s certainly a quality pitcher but I doubt if he’s ever able to repeat his ’09 season. In his first full season he posted a very encouraging K/9 of 8.45, yet he has not been able to maintain that posting K/9’s of 7.34/7.69/7.07 the past three seasons. His career K/BB ratio is just 2.09, and he’s a fly ball pitcher. I see nothing but downside here. His ’09 numbers were heavily aided by an 81.68 LOB% and .268 BABIP. Both of those are career outliers for Cain, and when those numbers regress heavily towards his career averages it will result in a spike in both ERA and WHIP this year.
Chris Coghlan (FLA) - Coghlan comes with a lot less hype than most ROY winners. As noted in the projection notes, his XBH% of 9.1 was higher than his minor league numbers. So, we should see that regress this season, as will his batting average due to an unsustainable .304 singles average from a year ago. Now, Coghlan is a .300 hitter (excellent EYE’s throughout his professional career). However, with an expected decrease in XBH and not a lot of speed, Coghlan loses a lot of value if his BA goes southwards from .320 to .300 since he does not bring a whole lot to the table otherwise, particularly for an OF.
Brett Anderson (OAK) - Anderson is one of my favorite picks for a breakout pitcher. He has two things making him underrated: not a lot of exposure out in Oakland and an ERA that was artificially high (4.06) thanks to a 67% LOB%. However, his supporting numbers were excellent, particularly for a rookie. Anderson had a K/BB ratio of 3.33, and he induced groundballs 50.9% of the time leading to FIP and xFIP ERA’s of 3.69 and 3.61 respectively. He also got stronger as the season went on. In his last 5 GS, Anderson had 31 K’s in 28.2 IP while walking just 4 batters, which makes me think we could see an uptick in his K rate in his second season. If that’s the case, he could be scary good.
Dave Bush (MLW) - Bush is a sleeper in NL only leagues. His 6.38 ERA from a year ago should make him undervalued in all formats, but he is due to rebound. Fantistics has him pegged for a 4.47 ERA, 11 wins, 166 K and a 1.25 WHIP, a HUGE improvement over last season. Bush experienced a ton of bad luck. His BABIP of .324 was 32 points above his career average, and his LOB% of 63.3% was over five percentage points lower than his career average. This occurred despite Bush posting one of the better K/9 of his career (7.01) and a respectable K/BB ratio of 2.41.
Rafael Soriano (TB) - For those of you who want a top flight closer without using one of your first ten draft picks, Soriano is your guy. He does come with some injury risk, but he has all of the components of a dominating closer. We have him ranked 5th out of all RP, with the four ahead of him going 3-5 rounds earlier. Last season, Soriano struck out a whopping 12.13 batters per 9 IP, and he kept his walk totals under control leading to a 3.78 K/BB ratio. ]]>

Catching Up - DC Preview Part 2

2010-03-02T06:30:41Z

2010 DC Catcher Preview I hate catchers. I can never get this position right, much in part to the fact that I refuse to play it safe. Well, I guess old habits die hard. After making one of my goals of the season to not make a complete mess of the catcher position, I’m on a collision course to do just that. My picks: Matt Wieters (BAL) 650 and Lou Marson/Carlos Santana (CLE) 280 The Rationale: Matt Wieters - Wieters may not live up the hype he has carried into the majors as quickly as some have thought, but there’s just too much upside here at a position where that’s usually a rarity. For starters, after struggling initially at the major league level (a .147/.297/.388 in 85 bats over the first half of the season) Wieters improved considerably and quickly with a .301/.354/.420 second half over 269 at bats. His patience also started to develop towards the end of the season as he posted season highs in EYE and BB% over the last month of the season. Wieters has the chance to put up a Victor Martinez type season at a much lower price, and even if he does not put up those type of numbers, he will certainly be worth his tag. Fantistics has him pegged for a .305 AVG and 18 HR. Lou Marson/Carlos Santana - The plan here is to take Marson until Santana gets called up and then burn for Santana. Many people feel Marson’s “dead weight” over the first few months of the season will put me in a position where I will not be able to recover. Well, let’s crunch some numbers. First of all, one of the strengths of the Fantistics projection system has been its ability to accurately project playing time situations. Currently, Fantistics has Marson projected for 6 HR, a .263 AVG, 42 R, and 19 RBI over 293 at bats, and Santana projected for 16 HR, a .285 AVG, 67 R, and 70 RBI over 369 at bats. Let’s conservatively assume we lose 1/3rd of Marson’s at bats for when he plays after Santana is called up in order to give Santana a day of rest from time to time. That leaves us with 564 at bats with 20 HR, a .277 AVG, 95 R, and 82 RBI. Now, this is based on an optimistic projection for Santana, but even if we lower the counting stats by 20% (16 HR, 76 R, and 66 RBI) and assume a .270 total BA, isn’t that worth a 280 tag over a full season? It’s a risk, for sure, but one worth taking when looking at the big picture. I can’t argue against playing it safe with Martinez or Mauer. However, I started my first few attempts at a roster with Mauer locked in, and the numbers just didn’t work out as well as they did when I went cheap at catcher. Also, Mauer is doubtful to repeat last year’s numbers. Let’s take a look: Joe Mauer (MIN) 1310 - His LD% was a spectacular 22.6%; however, it was right in line with his career mark of 22.5%. Yet, his BABIP was a career high of .373, which was 29 points above his career average BABIP of .344. Furthermore, his singles average was a ridiculously high .329. Here are his marks in that category since 2005 - .276/.308/.258/.299/.329. Clearly the .329 is an outlier, and we should expect Mauer’s BA to be more around .330 rather than .360. Now, Mauer certainly developed his power last season, but his HR/FB% of 20.5 seems unlikely to be repeated. So, with all that said Mauer is a safe choice, but the unlikelihood of him exceeding or repeating last season’s numbers prevent him from being a lock at 1310, although he is certainly playable at that price. I am confident in my catcher strategy, but there’s a good chance I’ll choose to eliminate a little bit of risk from my plan by carrying a backup catcher and eliminating one of my 13 starting pitchers, which appears to be excessive. If I do decide to go that route, I will probably target one of a handful of catchers below the 7k salary mark that appear to provide decent value: Geovany Soto (600), Mike Napoli (680), Miguel Montero (610), Ryan Doumit (670), and Chris Iannetta (590). The two favorites right now are Soto and Doumit, who are both coming off of disappointing, injury plagued seasons and are expected to bounce back. Currently, I favor Soto. Despite his bad season, his EYE grew from .51 to .65, which is an admirable leap for someone who struggled mightily at the plate. In fact most of his batting average deficiency can be attributed to bad luck. He had a .184 singles average, which is well below the MLB average of around .245. I expect Soto to post ’10 numbers right in line with his ’08 numbers, minus a few batting average points. Again, feel free to comment below if you have any thoughts or want me to address any players that weren’t mentioned as it’s d to cover everyone with so many different options out there. ]]>

Fantistics Player Projections Software supports more league formats than any other program in existence (Over 75 scoring options). Fanball's Diamond Challenge is just one of the many scoring formats supported. You can see the Diamond Challenge player Salaries in our software, and compare those salaries to our Valuations to find relative value as you compile your ultimate CDM roster.

2010 Preseason Prep- March 1, 2010

2010-03-01T12:39:45Z

Elvis Andrus- TEX-Andrus gets most of his notice for his Web Gem work at SS. His .267 average during his rookie season was somewhat of a pleasant surprise. However, it is quite possible that it is sustainable, given his reasonable .261 BHIPx. Luck didn’t hand him that average. Add in 33 steals and Andrus has some fantasy worth. In keeper leagues, he is even more valuable, as he very likely could turn into a clone of the player who mentored him last season, Omar Vizquel. Hanley Ramirez- FLA-Ramirez is arguably the best fantasy SS in the game, but he may not be in line to repeat last year’s lofty .342 batting average. A drop in Batting EYE from .75 to .60 and walk Rate from 13.5% to 9.6% between 2008 and 2009 was obscured by an increase in luck. His BHIP went from .268 to .316. A drop down to something near normal will result in his average being merely excellent instead of stratospheric. Dan Uggla- FLA- Uggla has a chance to become the first 2B in major league history to string together 4 consecutive 30-homer seasons. Whether he will do that in a Florida uniform is questionable. Uggla agreed to a $7.8 million contract in January and that will make it tempting for the Fish to deal him before the season is out. That’s because along with the homers comes a reputation for streakiness and a propensity for striking out. Uggla struck out 150 times in 564 ABs. His rise in Batting EYE from .45 to .61 was a result of the hitters behind him instead of increased selectivity. Brian Roberts- BAL- Roberts took some live BP for the first time this spring. He has a herniated disk in his lower back, which is not a good thing for the 32-year-old. Roberts’decline in average last year to .283, his lowest mark in 5 seasons, can partially be attributed to the bad luck shown by a .237 BHIPx. However, the rise in strikeout rate and drop in walk rate that resulted in his second consecutive decline in Batting EYE, to .66, also played a part. While Roberts hit almost twice as many homers (16) last year as in 2008 (9), lower back problems can sap power. Jeremy Guthrie- BAL- Most of Guthrie’s success in 2007 and 2008, when he was the only AL pitcher with an ERA under 3.70 both seasons, has to do with luck. He enjoyed a BHIP of .268 and .256 respectively in those seasons. Last year, it was at .283, still below the major league average, and his ERA ballooned to 5.04. Given that Guthrie’s strikeout rate has declined for 3 seasons running, even with the pressure of being the staff ace lifted from his shoulders, a return to his numbers of 2 and 3 years ago is not likely. Adrian Gonzalez- SD- The White Sox are the latest team rumored to be seeking to acquire Gonzalez. Yesterday, former teammate Jake Peavy said he had given Sox GM Kenny Williams a glowing report when asked about the Padres’ first baseman. Chicago would be an even better destination for the likely-to-be-traded slugger. Granted, almost any place away from Petco would make Gonzalez’s numbers soar, given his home road splits of .244 to .306 for average and 12 to 28 for homers in 2009. However, U.S. Cellular Field has had a Ballpark Index of 122 for homers by lefthanders over the past 3 years, while Fenway is at 97. This could mean 60+ homers for Gonzalez if he joins Peavy. Howie Kendrick- LAA- Kendrick is part of a core Angels’ infield that is signed for the next 3 seasons. What kind of impact he has will depend in large part on improved plate discipline. I know I’m in the minority where it regards Kendrick, but I have problems swallowing that he can get a batting title while walking in 5% of his plate appearances, as he did last year, no matter how sweet his swing is. The encouraging this ins that the 5% was an improvement on 2008, which was an improvement on 2007. Plus, he walked 7 times in 87 PAs when he was sent to the minors last season after posting a .193 average in May. So, it’s too early to consider him a bust, and he will probably break out one of these years and post a .325+ average, but it’s hard to say when that will be. Barry Zito- SF- Zito says he’s not happy being the #3 starter in the Giants rotation, but given that he shares that rotation with Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, at this point in his career, Zito has to live with it. He did make a marked turnaround in the last half of 2008, posting a 2.83 ERA, after a 5.01 mark before the All Star Break. Overall, Zito improved on his strikeout rate and walk rate over his disastrous 2008 performance, going up from .67 to .80 on the former and down to .42 from .57 on the latter. If Zito retains his command of the strike zone, while he won’t be the same Cy Young pitcher he was across the Bay, he will be a solid performer. Jair Jurrjens- ATL- Jurrjens has been suffering from some inflammation around his shoulder and is behind the other Atlanta starters as far as spring work goes. However, it doesn’t seem to be serious and Jurrjens is still slated to pitch in the season opening series at Turner Field. The Braves have been careful about Jurrjens’ usage over the last couple of seasons, not having him throw an excessive amount of pitches in his starts, although he has compiled 403.1 IP over 2008 and 2009. Right now, his injury risk seems low. J. J. Hardy- MIN- Hardy is starting over in Minnesota, where one of his good friends is the catcher, Joe Mauer. Maybe you’ve heard of him? Anyway, this could be a deal that his old team, the Brewers, might regret. Most of Hardy’s steep drop in average, from .283 in 2008 to .229 last year, can be explained by a drop in his BHIPx from .248 to .220. Hardy was flat out unlucky. His Batting EYE only declined slightly, from .53 to .51, so the fundamentals are relatively unchanged. Hardy’s drop in power, from a .478 SLG to .357 is less easily explained, but given the potential emotional turmoil his bad luck gave him and the fact that he has hit the magic age of 27 this year, there is a good chance that he will bounce back in a big way. Tim Hudson- ATL- Hudson is slated to be the 4th pitcher in the Atlanta rotation when the regular season starts. This is not a move reflecting their judgment of his value, but rather is an effort to use the schedule to his advantage. Although Hudson performed credibly after coming back from Tommy John surgery last year, the Braves are conservative with their pitchers’ health. By starting the fourth game, Hudson will have an extra day of rest before each of his first three starts. Troy Glaus- ATL- Glaus is one to watch closely this spring. At 33 years old and coming off shoulder surgery, there are plenty of reasons to avoid him. However, if the shoulder is healed, as he says, the Braves have handed him their 1B job and he has a golden opportunity. So far he has hit some very deep drives during workouts. If that translates to game conditions, Glaus could return to the form that saw him hit 27+ homers and knock in 97+ runs with a Batting EYE no worse than .58 in 3 of the four seasons prior to 2009. Brad Lidge- PHI- Could Lidge be the second coming of Mitch Williams? With 34 BBs in 58.2 IP last year and posting a 7.21 ERA and .301 OBA, he is not on solid ground as the closer in Philly. His contract is the main thing that is putting him there. Yes, Lidge had very bad luck, as indicated by a .345 BHIP, but his velocity dropped and hitters were waiting on his fastball. That’s not something entirely explained away by misfortune. Coming off surgery, Lidge is a high risk. Brandon Webb- ARI- Despite missing almost all of last season with shoulder problems that eventually resulted in season ending surgery, Webb has a good chance of bouncing back. He threw 43 pitches yesterday and his velocity is returning. Webb is currently scheduled to take the mound for the third game of the regular season. His surgery was relatively minor and he has demonstrated a long lasting ability to shoulder (pardon the pun) heavy workloads. The number of innings he threw was probably not the issue or it would have surfaced earlier. Watch Webb and see how his physical progress goes. If he continues to strengthen, then take advantage of those who will be put off by his lost 2009. Daric Barton- OAK- Barton is poised to realize the potential that made him a prime prospect a couple of seasons ago. Batting just .226 as a rookie in 2008 was in large part due to bad luck, seen in a .222 BHIPx and very poor strike zone control, seen in 99 Ks in 446 ABs. Last season, in 160 major league ABs, Barton hit .269, despite still having a BHIPx of .227. The huge difference is that he struck out just 25 times and walked 26. Give Barton just some average luck, even a little below average given his lack of speed, and he will break out.

2010 Preseason Prep - February 27, 2010

2010-02-27T16:39:14Z

Blue Jays Rotation : The post-Halladay era begins in Toronto with intense focus on the three prospects acquired in exchange for the face of the franchise this offseason. Pitcher Kyle Drabek, first-baseman-to-be Brett Wallace, and catcher Travis d'Arnaud are expected be the core of future Blue Jay campaigns, but the immediate problem facing the team is fielding a starting staff in 2010 without a #1. Ricky Romero and Shaun Marcum will vie for the defacto top slot although either would be a #1 in name only. Offseason acquisition Brandon Morrow and lefty Brian Tallet will follow them in front of a wide-open battle for the #5 slot. Second-year lefties Marc Rzepczynski and Brett Cecil will make strong bids. Dana Eveland, who was acquired from the A's this offseason as well as the underachieving and oft-injured Dustin McGowan, and David Purcey will be in the mix as well. Romero threw BP on Friday for the first time this spring and looked great according to reports. After a hot first half to last season Romero was 6-6 5.54/1.76 after the break. He also had a 7.66 ERA in 5 starts against the Red Sox last year and a 5.94 ERA in 3 starts against the Yankees ... so there are questions. Ricky threw 164.1 IP in the minors in 2008 so his 192.1 pro IP last year may have contributed to his second half to some extent, but it doesn't feel like the total explanation. Brian Tallet could be an interesting player to follow in all of this. Tallet had started just 6 games in 6 seasons prior to his 25 starts last year for the Jays. Despite a 100-IP jump in workload Brian was 7-8 with a 5.41 ERA as starter. There's a lot of bloat in those numbers, due in large part to 6 September starts after the 32-year-old was seemingly out of gas, 70 innings beyond his previous career-high workload. This, after stretching out from a reliever role to start the season. Brian was 2-1, 6.25 in September. A look at his May and June of last year may be a better indicator of what he's capable of ... 4-4, with a 3.85 ERA and with a 1.41 WHIP. "Tallet, there's definitely going to be some strong sentiment with him," GM Alex Anthopoulos said. "He had a run at certain points where he did very well, and he threw 160 innings for us. When you look at the averages in terms of ERAs and innings pitched, for a fourth or fifth starter, he was very solid and was a good stabilizing force." Tallet will probably only be viable (assuming he makes the rotation out of camp) in AL-only formats ... and only as a 4th or 5th starter. But he bears watching this spring and could be part of your late draft sweep up strategy if he shows signs in March. Blue Jays Closer : Just as the front end of the Jays pitching staff is an open question, so too is the back end where Cito Gaston is considering a shared closer role among the many non-options available to him. Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs, and Jason Frasor will likely split the job in some form or another over the course of the season either by design, or due to performance, or injury. Gregg has the lineage of the group with 23 or more saves the last three seasons, and he seems to be skilled at gaining the confidence of managers, especially veteran managers like Cito Gaston. Last year he matched his career high K rate at 9.31 and cut his walks to 3.93 - not great, but his best BB rate since becoming a closer. His problem last year was his HR/9 rate which jumped to 1.70 with the Cubs after two seasons of 0.95 and 0.39 with the Marlins. He did give up a few more FB last year than normal but his 15.3% HR/FB% was a totally outlying stat in his career and well about league average (around 11%) and his career average of 8.5%. That looks like a little bit of bad luck. Gregg is not a traditional closer, topping out at 91-92 and he's using his slider more of late. It's a safe bet that Cito will look at Gregg first and that as a result, Kevin is a decent bet to end the year leading the team in saves, but keep in mind he should not be confused with a #1 closer option. Frasor is a more traditional closer candidate. He throws a plus fastball at 93-94 and backs that with a decent slider. He can also keep you off balance with and occasional change and splitter. Frasor was 11/14 in save opps last year with a nifty 2.50 ERA, with an 8.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. He keeps the ball in the ballpark and has earned his stripes in the AL East already. The Jays signed Gregg for a reason however and it's unlikely they were thinking "set up guy" when they did. Frasor should start in that set up role and will push for saves throughout the year. For those of you in keeper leagues with liberal freezes, Gregg is on a 1-year contract with two years of options behind it. Frasor could easily be looking at a full-time closing role with the Jays in 2011. Downs look to end up as a lefty specialist in this scenario except left-handed hitters don't find him particularly hard to figure out (.263/.786 vs .246/643 against RHH). He's a GB pitcher who will likely only see situational saves. Cardinals 5th Starter : Rich Hill would seem to be a favorite at first blush but several other candidates are in the running including a couple of surprises. John Smoltz went 1-3, 4.26 while walking just 9 batters and striking out 40 in 38 IP for the Cards last year and topped that off with 5 Ks in 2 IP in his only playoff appearance. He's unsigned however and the Cardinals don't have enough payroll flexibility to make him viable offer. For the time being the Cardinals seem to be hoping that 25-year-old Kyle McClellan is ready to grab the role despite never having made a major league start. Kyle posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 66.2 IP of relief last year with 51 Ks. He threw less sliders last year, almost foregoing it in fact, instead relying in his 91-92 fastball and his 88 mph cut fastball to set up what is a decent curve. Kyle will still toss a show-me change every once in a while as well. He'll need to control his walks better than he did last year (4.5/9) and he's shown that ability in the past (3.0/9 in 75.1 IP in 2008), He'll also need to continue to throw GBs as a starter, but his biggest hurdle this year will be IP as he will certainly top his career high of 75 in 2008 and will likely double it. Should McClellan beat out Hill and youngster Jamie Garcia to win the fifth slot he should be a worth add for the back of your rotation, but have an exit strategy for the second half when the weight of all his innings starts to build up. Cardinals SS : Brendan Ryan's wrist surgery earlier in the month has the Cardinals at least considering short-term options for shortstop. Ryan had surgery to address a chronic soreness in his right wrist and is expected to be limited in the first three weeks of camp. The obvious solution to the Cardinals SS issues and their relatively soft bench was to sign Felipe Lopez who hit .325 in a late season run with the Cardinals in 2008. Last year Lopez hit .310 in 601 ABs with 9 HRs and 57 RBI. The Cardinals successfully played the waiting game with Lopez since Ryan's surgery. Suitors dropped for Lopez and he recently fired Scott Boras as his agent, all of which brought his price more in line with the Cardinals budget. Last year has to be considered a resurgence by Lopez who posted a .383 OBP with the Brewers in over 680 plate appearances. The caveat however is Felipe's .360 BHIP% in 2009 is a career best, and 37 points higher than his career BHIP%. Lopez's K and BB rates remain wholly consistent with his recent mediocre past leaving just a relatively lucky BHIP% as the only visible means of support of his very solid 2009. Betting on a repeat of that BHIP% this year would be a fools bet and a repeat of 680 trips to the plate this year seems even less likely. Red Sox Batting Order : This Red Sox camp, to this point is incredibly devoid of drama or debate. Everyone has come to grips with the new outfield alignment for 2010 which will see Mike Cameron in CF and Jacoby Ellsbury in LF. Adrian Beltre has supplanted Mike Lowell as the starter at third base and Mike seems content with his role as the Red Sox equivalent of a 6th man. And even Jason Varitek has come to grips with his new life as the back up to Victor Martinez. Offensively the only thing there seems to be to discuss is how the pieces fit together in the batting order. The Boston Herald reports that the Sox are toying with the idea of hitting Dustin Pedroia in the 5th spot in the order. Dustin is almost a prototypical 2-slot hitter but that may actually be cramping his style. Dustin raised his average 30 points with runners on base last season and struck out just 7.2% of the time. He's not a home run power house but he is more than capable of 50 doubles and a .470-.500 SLG% which will more a lot of base runners and knock in a lot of runs. It's hard to see how this would do anything but increase Dustin's value. I'm going to work on the assumption that Dustin is smart enough and capable of tailoring his hitting approach to a role, and while we won't know until we actually see him do it I will say that in 20 ABs hitting cleanup since 2007, Dustin's slash line is .650/.652/1.802. You want bigger samples? I do too. Over the last three years with runners on ... a 5th-slot type of situation Dustin's slash line is .313/.382/.823 ... with none on it is .313/.370/.847 ... If your math skills are not warmed up yet, I'll tell you that means that over the last three seasons Dustin's SLG% drops 36 points with runners on. So much for bulking up for a situation. Keep in mind though he's as equally tough an out and just as capable of moving runners along, the primary role of the #5 hitter. A move to 5th in the batting order is not likely to chip into Dustin's SBs or doubles or batting average and it should goose his RBI total. With JD Drew and Marco Scutaro very viable alternatives for the #2 position, and much less so candidates for the #5 hole, don't discount this possibility too quickly. Red Sox Corners/DH : Mike Lowell wasn't supposed to be here. Theo's plan was to trade Mike to Texas along with $9M of his salary and spend $3M on the free agent market, supplementing his bench and providing some insurance for the uncertainties of David Ortiz and Adrian Beltre. The Rangers balked at Lowell's thumb injury in a trade they had agreed to with the Sox for Lowell and the Red Sox stopped looking for corner help. Mike Lowell showed up at camp with a first baseman's glove determined to show that he's healthy. To this point Mike has participated in throwing and defensive drills but has only hit off a tee. Mike says his goal is to show he's healthy, and in his mind showcase himself for a trade to a team which can offering a starting position. Mike is less than a week away from live BP in his own estimation and feels his recovery from thumb ligament damage is a "minor issue". He thinks he could be ready for the first exhibition games but will likely be 3 or 4 games behind. Lowell says his surgically repaired hip is "10 times stronger" than it was last year at this time The Red Sox maintain the situation will take care of itself and there are enough moving parts in the starting lineup between 1B,3B, and DH that Lowell could play a very significant role if it works out that he stays in Boston. They acknowledge however that David Ortiz is their DH and Beltre is the starter at 3rd. Adrian Beltre : While we are on the subject, Beltre is expected to resume full workouts soon after turning his ankle on Wednesday. Beltre reported major improvement on Friday in limited testing Brandon Webb : Friday provided more positive signs for the D-Back and Brando Webb owners as he continues his return from shoulder surgery last August. Webb had a strong 45-pitch bullpen session on Thursday and followed that up yesterday with a "really good" long toss session in the words of pitching coach Mel Stottlemeyer Jr. I'll leave it to all of you to imagine what a "really good" long-toss session looks like. Stottlemeyer rolled balls to him during the session to get his feet moving in an attempt to reset his timing and mechanics. Webb has been working on the side alone but will take his next session on Sunday with other pitchers, So far. So good. Carlos Beltran : The news is less good for we Carlos Beltran owners. Beltran has yet to take part in baseball activities and the Mets have essentially written him off until May. The Mets and Beltran had a little spat over a procedure that Carlos apparently decided on unilaterally this winter. they've since kissed and made up. Angel Pagan and Gary Matthews Jr. will split CF duties for the first few weeks of the season and the Mets are reportedly thinking about batting Jose Reyes third in his absence, which could be an issue for Reyes owners counting on high SB totals. Billy Wagner : Wagner left Braves camp on Friday and returned home with an undiclosed illness believed to be an upper respiratory infection. More when we get it but nothing here suggests any change in the big picture. Wagner appears to be set as the Braves closer for the upcoming campaign. Jair Jurrjens : The Braves practically have to strap Jurrjens down to keep him from rushing his recovery from shoulder soreness. Jurrjens tried to talk his way into a throwing session on Friday but the brass turned him down. That's a good sign. He did throw some long toss and did hear a little soft barking from his shoulder. he's still on track for a mound session sometime next week and it remains possible he will be ready to go opening day. Derek Holland : It turns out that Derek Hollands slightly sprained knee will not be much of an issue. Doctors have cleared Holland to resume baseball activities and he will throw off a mound today. Justin Duchscherer : Justin responded so well to his Thursday throwing session that he decided to play catch again yesterday. Duchscherer had a minor back procedure earlier this week and all indications are that his recovery is going very well. Chris Burke : Burke is going to miss two weeks with a fractured right ring finger after injuring himself trying to field fly balls on Thursday. Oddly enough this can only help his chance of making the team and if your draft comes up in the next two weeks start talking him up to your opponents and see how high you can get him drafted ... Stephan Strasburg : That low rumble you heard yesterday was Nationals manager Jim Riggleman sending shock waves through every mock draft in the country by admitting on the record that Stephen Strasburg could make the major league roster for opening day. The #1 overall pick in the 2009 draft has done nothing to diminish his stock in the AFL this fall or in camp so far ... but then again he hasn't proven anything yet either. Still, this you can't ignore. Strasburg's ceiling is too high, even with the Nationals. We have a whole camp to track this so buckle up. As it stands now however, in keeper leagues, start positioning yourself for this rare talent. Pablo Sandoval : The Kung Fu Panda, Pablo Sandoval will wear prescription goggles this season after being diagnosed with diminished vision in his left after shortly after the season ended last year. Sandoval started wearing the vision correction in the Venezuelan Winter League this year and all he did was hit .395 in 20 games. They was already at a 14.5% K rate and 8.2% walk rate in the majors last year ... and making contact in the zone on nearly 88% of his swings ... oh and ya ... he hit .330! ... no ... !! ... And he couldn't see? Yikes ...

Consistency Factor - The Consistent Fantasy Player

2010-02-27T06:41:27Z

Consistency Factor

Consistency Factor: an indicator designed to measure a player's Weekly and/or Daily quality production output using Fantistics Fantasy Production Indicator (FPI).

For anyone who has played in a Head to Head league, you probably already know the importance of Weekly Consistency in player production. Similar in nature to the popular indicator which measures a pitcher's Quality Starts (Bill James), Consistency Factor gives us an indicator of a batter's quality games or quality weekly output.

Last week we took a look at The Inconsistent Player. This week we look at those players that are consistent or were last season.

As a benchmark we are comparing each hitter's daily/weekly production to the average production of the top 250 major league hitters. If a player's production for a particular day or week is above the group mean, then the player registers a quality game/week. These games/weeks are accumulated and the sum is the output we call Consistency Factor . Consistency factor is based on our Fantasy Production Indicator (FPI) which triggers a Quality Game when the player's production exceeds .65.

Below are the most consistent batters in 2009 with their 3 year averages. The number of weeks their output exceeded the average threshold factor of their peers (FPI), they registered a quality week. As you can see below, Albert Pujols was consistent 20 of his 26 weeks (a 75% consistency), and has been consistent 80% of his weeks over the last 3 years. This of course does not come as a surprise to anyone. What we are looking for in this exercise is players who showed remarkable consistency in 2009, but have not shown the same consistency in the past.

Again the purpose of this indicator is to allow us to easily recognize those hitters who produce on a consistent basis and those that do not. For those who play in a weekly head to head format, the value of this indicator is obvious. In this segment, I am making a case for Consistency Factor as a relevant indicator for all fantasy or rotisserie league formats.

My premise here is simple: established players who do not produce quality output on a consistent basis are at higher risk to achieve similar success in the future. Essentially we want players who produce consistently rather than in sporadic episodes. The reasoning is a derivative of the laws of probability, consistency is paramount to lowering our risk...the more observations the better.

Consistency by it own summation does not come cheaply on draft day, as a consistently productive player will logically produce the best stats overall. Thus the real value of the Consistency Factor is to: 1. find or exclude the players who are not consistent in their production and 2. target young players who are showing consistent patterns. There are a distinct group of players that mask their yearly results based on a few hot weeks of production. As a fantasy GM in a non weekly or head to head format format, you might be saying: "SO WHAT...as long as he produces what is expected in his final year end statistics".

Here is the reasoning why I am suggesting that inconsistent players be avoided: Streaky players, for the most part, will never be consistent players. Thus placing faith in a player who only produces in small time frames exposes his fantasy GM to injury and playing time risks that are beyond the normal scope.

Injury Risk Consideration

It's simple, stay away from players who are both inconsistent and injury prone. The premise: consistent players will produce evenly throughout the season and will not be as adversely affected by missing playing time. Their opportunities for achievement are more spread out, which reduces their risk.

Playing Time Risk Consideration

A perfect example of a player who produced in streaks is Geoff Jenkins. Coming into 2006, Jenkins was the model of inconsistency for a player who usually ended the season with decent yet unspectacular numbers. A 27 HR/90 RBI/.290 BA were numbers most typical of his yearly production. Yet Jenkins only had 10 out of 26 weeks of quality production in 2004, and 11 out of 26 weeks in 2005. Most players in this final stats range usually have about 15 quality weeks of production. Jenkins was getting by with 40%+ less consistency. In 2006 however, Jenkins hit such a long streak of non production, he was essentially benched before he ever had a chance to reach his typical hot spurt. Hence the playing time risk consideration.

How to properly use Consistency Factor

These are two examples of the risk in taking established players who are not consistent in spacing their production evenly throughout the season. A premise based human behavioral patterns and the laws of probability. In thumbing through a list of consistent players and inconsistent players over the last 5 years, in most cases inconsistent weekly players (despite masking some years with quality year end numbers) have had more instances of disappointing seasons. To use this tool properly we need to compare apples to apples. Comparing Albert Pujols' consistency factor to that of a Geoff Jenkins doesn't aid us in any manner, as Pujols is a much more valuable player and this will not come as a surprise to anyone in your draft either.

Here's an example of how to effectively use Consistency Factor:

There are many players that are closely valued during the fantasy draft season. Consistency factor can be effectively used to make decisions when comparing similar commodities. Two such players in this year's draft are (typical 5x5 Roto format):

Kevin Youkilis: 91 R/26 HR/92 RBI/.287 BA/7 SB $14 EAV$ (3nd round 9th selection ADP)

Derrek Lee: 92 R/31 HR/101 RBI/.294 BA/2 SB $15 EAV$ (6rd round 7th selection ADP)

According to ADP (Average Draft Position - included in our projections software) Youkilis is being selected 3 rounds ahead of Lee. I believe this gap should be much closer if not in reverse. Consider that Youkilis produced above average results in 13 of his 23 playing weeks last year (57%), while Lee produced above average production in 17 of his 23 weeks (78%). Not only was Lee's production better last year, but Lee has produced on a more consistent basis over the last 3 years (70% to Fielder's 51).

My Bottom line: Without any other factors to consider, and based on these consistency indicators, I would rather ride with Lee this year than I would with Youkilis. It's certainly not a 'slam-dunk", as these are 2 very similar commodities. In the end the fantasy team that comes out ahead, is usually the owner that knowingly or unknowingly does a better job of consistently playing the percentages.

There are a considerable amount of easier calls to make when looking at those players who had a bounce back season in 2009 without the consistency levels that we like to see. Players that I'm weary about heading into 2010, who had an above average season in 2009 (but have a poor 3 year consistency factor) include: See full list (players highlighted in red) here.

Here's the guys that we highlighted last year (prior to 2009): Aubrey Huff, Stephen Drew, Vernon Wells, Michael Young, Carlos Delgado, Mark DeRosa, Melvin Mora, Mike Cameron, Ty Wigginton, and Bengie Molina. (see past player mentions). Michael Young was the only exception in 2009.

For those who are interested in consistency factor (register), it's conveniently listed for each player in the Forecaster section of the projections screen (see example below) and also are listed as a sort-able column as wellon the projections screen (Select Columns WC for Weekly Consistency and DC for Daily Consistency).

Anthony A. Perri

Statistician and Publisher -Fantistics Insiderbaseball.com

See our Consistency Factor in action using our Player Projections Software in the Forecaster tab for each player. You can also sort a player's 2009 Weekly Consistency (WC) and Daily Consistency (DC) by selecting to view those columns in the Player Projections software.

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