Kelenic was once a highly touted prospect thanks to early first round draft capital, premium athleticism, and strong minor league performances. He spent three full seasons with Seattle's big league club, but only slashed .204/.283/.373 across 252 games. Seattle shipped him to Atlanta this offseason, and many pegged Kelenic as a continued breakout candidate in a potent Atlanta lineup. Unfortunately, Kelenic has evolved from a late-round flier in deep leagues to unrosterable. He is slashing a simply terrible .071/.152/.071 in 46 trips to the plate this spring. 46 PA's is not a serious sample size, but he's punched out 12 times and all three of his hits are singles. Furthermore, the Braves recently signed Adam Duvall, who has been a more consistent power-bat throughout his career. The Duvall signing clearly indicates the Braves are losing faith in Kelenic's ability to play everyday. The spring didn't go the way anyone planned for Kelenic, so for now you probably don't need to roster him.
Jackson Merrill
I wrote about Merrill two weeks ago, but it's worth checking in again in light of the recent news that he will be in the starting lineup for the Padres on Opening Day. Merrill is slashing .351/.400/.595 in 40 spring training trips to the plate, but the biggest takeaway from that line is the 3:3 BB:K rate and two homers. Merrill didn't have a strikeout problem in the minors (11.8% in AA), so the fact that he has carried it over into a brief spring is a green flag. With the Prospect Promotion Incentive now a thing, there is a strong chance Merrill stays in the bigs all year as long as he isn't terrible. I love Merrill as a stash in points leagues, where BB/K ratios are valued. Plus, we may see two-position eligibility with him transitioning to CF.
Gavin Stone
The Dodgers selected Stone in the 5th (and last) round of the 2020 Draft, mostly for his clean delivery and athleticism. His best minor league season came in an insane 2022, where he posted a 1.41 ERA across 121.2 IP. He punched out 12.4 per 9 and only allowed 0.2 HR per 9 in that year. He has a demonstrated history of missing bats and keeping the ball in the ballpark. Unfortunately, that didn't exactly carry over in his 2023 debut, where he allowed 2.3 HR per 9 and only punched out 6.4 per 9 in 31 rookie innings. While we never expect minor league stats to exactly carry over into the bigs, this regression in underlying ability is fairly hefty. Luckily, we have gotten a glimpse of the better version of Stone this spring, as he has allowed no homers and punched out 9 guys in 9.1 innings of work. I don't think there is big time upside here from a fantasy perspective, but the Dodgers just named him their fifth starter, so there is some upside to note. I make no promises, but Dodger pitchers should fare well in the W column, and the job is his until he loses it.
Kyle Harrison
Harrison was a punchout machine in the minor leagues, sending 35.6% of hitters back to the dugout on strikes in 65.2 AAA innings. Unfortunately, his punchout history is just as strong as his walk history, as Harrison also gave free bases away at 16.3% in that AAA stint. Last year, Harrison made seven rookie starts totalling 34.2 innings, but posted near league-average 23.8% K's and 7.5% BB's, much more sensical figures. The main issue with Harrison is his flyball tendencies. He got a concerningly low 27.8% in the groundball department in the bigs, and was only getting 35.8% in AAA. There is real homerun risk. That being said, he plays in a tough park to hit homers in, so that could work to his advantage. The Giants should also be respectable this year. I see two-category upside in the W and K department. If you get started desperate, this is a guy to consider on your short list.
Louis Varland
Varland has been as good as one can ask this spring, allowing zero runs in 11 IP, while punching out 11 and only walking one. Varland was used both in relief and as a starter last year, but there is a strong chance he slots into the Twins rotation full time this year. Varland quietly checks a lot of boxes. He throws strikes (6% BB), punches enough guys out (25.1%), throws hard (Top 97 this spring), and gets groundballs (45.4%). The issue is that, while Varland has solid stuff, he leaves a lot over the middle of the plate, especially the fastball and changeup. We usually see secondary pitches perform better than fastballs, but Varland's slider and changeup got rocked last year (.612 xSLG vs. SL, .599 xSLG vs. CH). Varland allowed a concerning .415 xwOBACON across all pitch types last year. His 2.12 HR/9 was one of the worst rates in the bigs last year. He gets right around league average chase and whiff rates, so if he can avoid the middle of the zone and utilize the cutter more often (.301 xwOBA), he should slightly reduce some of that quality contact. I don't think he's a must-have right now, but he is definitely a solid option to have on your short list of emergency starters, with slight upside for more.
Zac Gallen
Gallen is currently going as SP9 off the board, but I have some red flags that need to be addressed. Gallen is being drafted here because he has been a consistent starter over the past several years (88 GS last three years), and has thrown at least 180 in the last two (210 last year). So yes, you're getting the innings, which means you're getting the wins and strikeouts. If you value that at his ADP, go for it, but just know that Gallen got hit last year and got hit HARD. His 46.2% Hard-Hit rate and 91.5 EV are bottom of the barrel figures. He posted career worsts in Barrel% (9.2), Sweet-Spot% (36.4), xwOBACON (.399) and xERA (4.16). Gallen gets touted in the industry for being one of the safer starters, and I think that's more due to quantity right now, but I see him as having slightly more risk than consensus would suggest.
George Kirby
Kirby is a strike throwing monster, walking only 2.5% of batters last year in a large, 190.2 IP sample. The strike throwing is here to stay. Kirby was well known for it in college, and he has demonstrated it all throughout his pro career. This outlier ability gives Kirby a 110 Location+, the highest rate amongst qualified starters. He pairs it with a solid 106 Stuff+ across his arsenal, which combined give him a 109 Pitching+, good for third amongst all qualified starters. I will say that his Location+ outlier skills may come from throwing an unusual amount of strikes, something the models probably have never seen before. To account for this, I'm looking at his high chase rate (32.9%) and low Whiff rate (22.9%). I don't love this combination, as it means that hitters expect Kirby to throw strikes, so they "chase" due to lack of expectation of him throwing a ball, and make contact (low whiff) when it is in the zone. This is a slippery slope. If Kirby is going to be in the zone this often, he needs to have the stuff to back it up, and it looks like he has enough. Unless we see a jump in stuff, I think he is near his ceiling, so view Kirby as a rotation-stabilizing piece on your team, but may lack upside.
Giancarlo Stanton
The former MVP winner was once a lock to be a year-in-year-out contributor in the homerun department, but the last two years have not gone as planned for the slugger. In 2021, Stanton bounced back from having two down years prior, only playing 41 games combined between 2019 and 2020. In 2021, Stanton slashed .273/.354/.516 with 35 homers. A little light for an MVP winner, but solid nonetheless. Since then, Stanton's production has taken a nosedive in the batting average department, as he hit just .211 in 2022 and .191 in 2023. Weirdly, Stanton's exit velos and hard hit rates have only slightly taken a step back. He posted a career low wxOBACON (.429), but that figure itself is respectable. His BB% and K% are near career averages. So what gives? Oddly, Stanton's quality of non-homerun balls put into play has regressed significantly. He has posted an outlier .227 and .210 BABIP in the last two years and while some may cite positive regression, this is over 867 plate appearances, a large sample. The only way this happens is if we see a really large quantity of super poorly hit balls in play. Think popups, high flyballs, and soft/medium hit grounders. Well hit grounders, line drives, and flyballs have tons of variance in outcome but popups and soft grounders (for slow players, he's slow) don't. Those are predictable outs. Well, unfortunately for Stanton, he posted his highest popup rate since 2018 (8.9%) and highest Under% ever (26.6%). This is why we see his launch angle remain the same, but see his Sweet-Spot% be the lowest of his career the last two seasons. The flyballs are becoming close to popups and grounders are becoming closer to choppers. There has been a fundamental change in the kind of hitter he is, which could be swing or injury related, but I won't go into that. He has a .751 OPS this spring, but being DH-only may make him unplayable for fantasy purposes.
Alex Verdugo
Verdugo was a big piece of the prospect package coming back for Mookie Betts several years ago, and he's been exactly average for Boston since then. Verdugo has posted 6.0 bWAR the last three seasons, all of which have been full, so again, exactly average from a real-life standpoint. Verdugo is now a Yankee, playing in a ballpark with a famous short porch in right. Unfortunately, that's not necessarily conducive to Verdugo's skillset. Verdugo hit 13 homers last year, but he only would've hit 12 if he played every game at Yankee stadium. The issue is that he doesn't pull the ball (34.9%) in the air (23.1%) that often. Both those figures are just a touch below league average. Fortunately, Verdugo is excellent at controlling the zone and staying disciplined (22.2% Chase, 15.6% Whiff), which is probably why he has been so consistent the last three years. He now plays in what should be a slightly better lineup, so I will give him a slight bump up compared to his counting stats from last year. He is a high floor, low upside piece that can stabilize your team in deeper leagues.
Henry Davis
The former number one overall pick has been lighting it up in spring training with a 1.070 OPS thanks to four homers in only 28 PA's. That homerun rate is not sustainable, but it's encouraging to see after he struggled in 2023. Last year, he posted a paltry .291 xwOBA in 255 PA's, a light figure considering his draft pedigree. Luckily for Davis, he's young and has a strong MiLB resume. Davis slashed .306/.454/.561 in 250 MiLB PA's last season, so it made sense to see him in the bigs. He also walked (45) almost as much as he punched out (48). I'm a sucker for guys that hit upper-minors pitching without much pro experience and have pedigree. This is the kind of profile I would bet on. There aren't massive green flags in his big league data, but there are some small ones. He posted near league-average rates in Hard-Hit%, Sweet-Spot%, and Chase%. So, there is reason to believe the power will play in the bigs, and there is some contact ability. He is quietly an above-average runner as well, and attempted 8 steals last year. He is a for-sure bench stash if you punt on catchers this year, and is a screaming buy in dynasty.
Will Smith
The list of catchers from last year with at least 75 R, 75 RBI, and punched out less than 20%: Adley Rutschman, Will Smith. The Prince of Bel-Air has been considered one of the best offensive catchers in the game prior to Rutschman's arrival. Unfortunately, Smith actually had a down year in 2023, posting career lows in Barrel % (6.7) and xwOBACON (.365). He did also post a career low in K% (16.1), so we need to explore what is happening here. It looks like Smith also posted career highs in 1st Pitch Swing%, Swing%, Chase%, Chase Contact% and Zone Swing%. His Zone Contact was near his career average. It seems fairly obvious here that Smith became much more aggressive, and his solid contact skills allowed him to make more contact early in the count, as opposed to waiting for a better pitch he likes. Luckily, it seems more like an approach issue rather than a fundamental regression in ability. If he can fix that hiccup, I'm confident we can see the slightly better Will Smith again. As a bonus, he now hits in the same lineup as Shohei Ohtani, so I still expect him to do very well in the counting stats category. In points leagues where controlling the zone matters, Smith is right behind Rutschman in value.
Alec Bohm
Bohm was a high-end prospect out of the 2018 draft, praised for a hit-power combo that put him in the early first round. After an excellent 2019 in the minors, Bohm was called up and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting in 2020. Bohm hasn't been able to repeat his solid 44-game showing in 2020, but has slowly creeped back up, and actually put together a respectable offensive 2023. He set career bests in HR% (3.3), K% (15.4), GB% (42.6), and FB% (23.8), but also set career worsts in Barrel% (5.7), Hard-Hit% (41.7), and EV (89.4). It seems like he has had a hard time putting it all together - forcing the ball in the air has resulted in more homers, but the quality of contact overall has suffered. Bohm will now be 27, so he's not old, but he's not young. I'm not promising more upside, but at a thin position, Bohm still has a .270 AVG - 20 HR - 90 RBI line in him that is super realistic, and might be useful if you find yourself thin at the hot corner this year.
Elly De La Cruz
Elly set the world on fire by destroying the baseball across three different minor league levels in 2022 and 2023, in addition to the Dominican Winter League as only a 20 year old. As I've said before, I'm a sucker for young guys beating up upper-minors pitching. It's one of the biggest green flags out there. While I'm going to hold true to that, I have to note that Elly does not control the zone very well. He punched out at a 26.9% clip in AAA last year and a 33.7% clip in the bigs. This is due to his free swinging approach (32.8% Chase) and middling contact (29.7% Whiff). A player with this kind of hole in his game needs to make up for it with power, and he does. Elly posted a 119.2 Max EV and 45.9% Hard-Hit rate. Luckily, he is also a premium runner, showing literal top of the scale footspeed, getting up to 30.5 feet/second. It's impressive for his 6'5" size. He also has elite arm strength and a strong defensive skillset. The secondary tools are important here, because they will keep him in the lineup, even through potential slumps. There is just so much risk. He doesn't always make flush contact (30.5% Sweet Spot, 14th Percentile). The upside is real. If he can reel in the punchouts and make even a little more contact, you're looking at a top 25 fantasy hitter that will be a massive four category contributor. If you draft Elly, I'd recommend taking other safer hitters to balance out your risk.
Rhys Hoskins
A gruesome injury in spring training ended Hoskins' 2023 before it even started. An injury to Bryce Harper forced the Phillies to move Harper to firstbase, putting Hoskins out of a job. Luckily, Hoskins was able to sign on with the Brewers, who could use a little extra thump in their lineup. People forget how good Hoskins was before his injury. In 2022, his 4.8 HR% ranked him 21st, and in 2021 his 6.1 HR% would've ranked him tied for 12th if he qualified. He's got 4 seasons on his resume with a HR% over 5%. He makes a ton of flush contact (37.3% Sweet-Spot, 85th Percentile), Hard Contact (44.3%, 73rd Percentile), and has posted double digit walk rates every year of his career (13.5% career). These are 2022 figures. Coming off a major injury certainly will make us question things, but Hoskins was a startable 1B in fantasy. If you punt at the position, he could be a deep value.
Junior Caminero
Caminero is currently the number four overall prospect in baseball after tearing up AA as only a 19 year old. He also raked in the Dominican Winter League as only a 19 year old. The Rays called him up in September of last year, and he was pretty unnnotable in 36 PA's. There is a tremendous amount of hype around the prospect, especially since he's being advertised as having a hit-power combo. After posting a .631 OPS in the bigs in 2023, he has a .719 OPS in 27 PA's in spring training. While some thought Caminero would start in the bigs, the Rays recently reassigned him to minor league camp. While fans are disappointed, the Rays are in no rush with their budding star and have plenty of other options in the infield. Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes, Curtis Mead, and Amed Rosario lead the race for starting jobs. However, there is a small rule in the Prospect Promotion Incentive that can still force the Rays' hands. According to the PPI rule, a player doesn't have to break camp, they only need to be on the starting roster within two weeks of opening day. Then, the player needs to accrue one year of service time to qualify for the award. So, hypothetically, the Rays could call up Caminero before the two week deadline, and still qualify for the award. Also, Since Caminero did accrue some service time last year, the "one year service time" threshold is a bit lower, so they could send him down for some short time next year. But that is completely speculation. The point being is that I'm not giving up on Caminero just yet. The Orioles did almost the same thing with Grayson Rodriguez last year.
]]>In 2023, MLB base runners had the highest stolen base success rates of all time at 80.2%. Over 50 players topped 20 SBs and 18 swiped 30 or more. That puts available SB threats near 70 players for 2024, as opposed to the usual 30 or so in pre 2023 MLB. Here's a rundown of 5 players whose SB skills may have peaked and 10 who could continue to steal as many or more in 2024.
Caught Stealing: SB Skils Peaked?
Randy Arozerana
Despite his propensity to run and make things happen, Arozarena was caught 31% of the time, well below the 20% caught rate for MLB in 2023. Fortunately, his OBP of .364 and his 28.4 MPH sprint speed point to continued opportunity to swipe bags. His Home to 1B sprint speed remains elite at 4.25 seconds. Randy's bound to play great baseball in reality, but be sure to draft for his overall statline and don't count on 30 SB for Randy in 2024.
Dalton Varsho
Yes, he's had catcher eligibility, making Varsho unicorn-ish with his 20 SB ability. Catcher eligibility should vanish for Varsho in 2024, and his 70% SB success rate dips well below league-average. Difficult to say if Dalton continues to get a green light in Toronto, but even if he does, the caught-stealing numbers limit his overall appeal as just about anyone with 500 ABs can steal 16, as did Varsho in 2023. His sprint speed of 28.1 MPH calls for optimism, but there's no reason to reach for him anymore among a crowded field of OF that can steal 20.
Whit Merrifield
Wither Whit? Merrifield makes a fantastic Philadelphia free agent pick-up. He's on a better team, which should mean more runs scored, but the bad news is he can't run wild, lest he take the bats out of the hands of all the Philly muscle. He was caught 10 of 36 times in 2023, despite his still robust 28.8 MPH sprint speed. However, as age 36 creeps in, Merrfiled merits a draft pick, just don't expect 30 SBs.
Jeremy Pena
Pena is a mixed-bag with a mediocre OBP of .324, caught stealing 9 of 22 times in 2023 but with an elite 29.4 MPH sprint speed. Pena has potential, both to grow as a player and thief, but the numbers say don't reach for SBs with Jeremy. Monitor his development as a young player in a good lineup, as this could be a season of stepping forward, but the SBs don't appear likely to grow.
Myles Straw
You knew his name was coming, so go ahead and remind yourself: you can't steal first base, etc. The song remains the same for Myles Straw: miniscule OBP (.301) and despite over 500 PAs in 2023, he stole 20 in 26 attempts, netting an under league average of 77% success rate. His stil-elite sprint speed of 29.2 MPH and his otherworldly 4.1 HP to 1B burst can't conjure a better eye for BB or bigger barrels. Stray from Straw and you'll be OK. If you need SBs midseason, shop the waiver wire, just look over your shoulder baby, he'll be there.
Should SB As Much or More in 2024
Christian Yelich
Despite a balky back acting up midseason, Yelich stole 28 in 31 attempts for a fantastic 90% success rate in 2023. Yelich's OBP of .370 ensures his opportunities should continue and the Brewer lack of punch in the lineup means he's likely to take the extra bag when he can. His sprint speed remains a fine 28.1 MPH and his HP to 1B speed is well above average at 4.35. His great eye and ability to get on base should keep his baseline SB total above 20 for 2024.
Bryson Stott
I'm bullish on Bryson, who stole 31 in 34 tries in 2023, despite a pedestrian OBP of .329. If Stott continues to make strides at the plate,further reducing his strikeout rate by 18% as he did from 2022-2023, his opportunities to swipe should continue. His 91% success rate and elite 28.8 MPH sprint speed gives him a strong floor for 22 SBs in 2024. Stash Stott as your MI in Mixed Leagues in the mid-late rounds and you'll be stacking SBs. Stott is a great pick in NL Only for MI and could fetch $25 in auction for his 40 SB potential.
Xander Bogarts
According to new Padre skip (and former Tipper Gore fanclub member) Mike Shildt, Bogarts will slide over to the keystone for 2024. Xander picked his spots wisely in 2023, taking 19 bags in 21 attempts for a tasty 90% success rate on the stolen base front. His .350 OBP and long track record of health and productivity point to extended time on basepaths. The bags may come slowly, but over the course of a full season, if Xander continues to steal with such discretion, 20 SBs is a strong possibility, to go along with his usual solid BA and runs scored, making him a 2B to target in mid-early rounds in any league.
Ozzie Albies
Perhaps the finest 2B in all of MLB for his power potential, Albies was shrewd as can be on the basepaths in 2023, with 13 in 14 attempts. As Acuna strives to reveal his health, Albies may increase his attention on SBs in 2024, as his elite 4.2 seconds HP to 1B speed can attest. You may not select Albies for SBs, but his potential to nap 20 without all the annoying CS numbers that come with lackluster runners, makes Ozzie worth drafting early and often.
Javier Baez
Yes, he's still in the league. Despite his famously minimal OBP of .267 and inability to walk (4.4 BB%), Baez was 100% successful stealing bases in 2024. He went a perfect 12 for 12, even though he couldn't get on base to save his job. Monitor Javier for signs of improvement with on-base and consider him a waiver-wire dandy for SBs in head-to-head leagues and potentially worth employing in favorable matchups in AL-Only leagues with MI slots, if only for the possibility of 20 SBs, should he discover the route from HP to 1B at 4.4 seconds (or at any speed at all).
Lars Nootbarr
Make sure to monitor his rib injury, which he says is "getting better." Nootbar, noted for his OBP of .367 buoyed by a strong 14.3% BB rate, was also a noted thief in 2023, succeeding in 11 of 12 SB attempts A solid sprint speed of 27.8 MPH and a HP to 1B in just 4.3 seconds, theirs strong potential for Lars to land more steals in 2024. HIs strong batting eye and fleet feet point to a strong floor of 15 SBs in 2024, making Nootbar notable for NL-Only drafts, especially in OBP leagues. Lars is a nice late pick in mixed-leagues for matchups and as a bench option capable of on-base and taking the occasional base.
Willi Castro
Beneficiary of a solid OBP boost from .268 to .339 from '22 to '23, Castro stole 33 in 38 tries. Throw in an 8.3 BB% and multi-position eligibility makes him a sneaky source for SBs that should be around late in drafts. In AL-Only, Castro could be a great stash to plug and play in both OF and CI. This spring Castro has played some SS, adding to an already intriguing line of eligibility. His elite HP to 1B speed tops out at 4.28 seconds, so some of those pesky ground balls will be hits, which could in turn be cashed in for SBs.
José Caballero
Taking Tampa's starting shortstop job in 2024, Caballero can Cash in on his 26 out of 29 SBs in 2023 with a better team and more potential to score runs. This spring, Ray skipper Cash has turned hitting coach Chat Mottola loose on Caballero, encouraging a "letting loose" of the power, so perhaps he can reach for 10 HR to go along with a solid floor of 20 SBs in 2024. Our projections like his OBP to exceed .350 and his 4.2 HP to 1B elite feet ensure he'll beat out his share of grounders, elicit two disengagements and take off for second.
Steve Kwan
Kwan can steal with discretion, as evident by 21 of 25 triumphant thefts in 2023. His batted ball skills and K rate are well-established with a miniscule 10.4% along with a solid OBP of .340, keeping Kwan in a strong SB territory heading into 2024. His .280 batting average floor is comforting for 5x5 roto, as Kwan can contribute 3 category love without the HRs and RBIs. Fantastic 4.2 HP to 1B sprint time suggests he'll get on base on the occasional slow roller and even the rare bunt (last sighted in the wild in 2002).
Jarren Duran
Duran has spent spring roaming all three outfield spots for the beantown nine, ensuring that he remains indispensable for as long as he's healthy. Duran's daring on the basepaths in 2024 led to 24 of 26 successful swipes despite missing six weeks due to a toe injury. Top shelf sprint speed of 29.5 MPH means Jarren just jets from HP to 1B in 4.2 seconds. Our projections like his ability to mash off the monster for 40 plus doubles and continue to steal 25 plus bases with 15 HR a possibility as well. Just draft Jarren Duran in AL-Only for stuffed statlines, and prioritize him mid-late in Mixed League as a nice third OF or bench help.
]]>Devin Williams, MIL
Williams has been diagnosed with two stress fractures in his back and is expected to miss the first half of the season. This is devastating for the Brewers and for fantasy owners, many of whom drafted Williams as the first closer off the board this spring. Williams was arguably the best closer in baseball last season recording a 1.53 ERA (2.79xFIP), 13.35 K/9, and 29.6% HardHit% while notching 36 saves, but he was struggling this spring allowing 4 ER's and walking 4 batters in 1.1 IP. Now he'll clog up an IL spot for those who wish to hold on to him, although he'll presumably regain the closer role once he's healthy, which the Brewers hope will be sometime in June.
Joel Payamps, MIL
With Williams set to miss the first 3 months of the season, Payamps seems like a favorite to receive save chances for the Brewers. Payamps converted 27 holds as a setup man for Milwaukee in 2023, and finished with a 2.55 ERA and 3.65 xFIP across 70.2 IP. His peripherals were solid with a 9.81 K/9, 2.17 BB/9, and 45.9% GB%. He's not close to the same tier as Williams, but he needs to be drafted now as the presumptive next in line for the Brewers. It's worth noting though that Payamps has been roughed up for 5 ER's on 8 hits, including 2 HR's, in 2.2 IP in his 3 spring appearances, and continued struggles could lead the Brewers to consider turning in another direction.
Hoby Milner, MIL
The left-handed Milner is another Brewers reliever to keep on the radar, having recorded 17 holds in 2023, along with a 1.82 ERA and 0.96 WHIP across 64.1 IP. His 8.25 K/9 was mediocre, but he posted an elite 1.82 BB/9 and 50.9% GB% en route to a 3.66 xFIP. Milner was dominant against lefties last season, allowing a .450 OPS against them, in large part due to a 59.3% GB%. He wasn't shabby against right-handed hitters either, posting a 32:5 K:BB in 32.2 IP against righties. Milwaukee would likely like to keep Milner in the left-handed setup man role, and would probably only consider him for the closer role if they really had no other good options.
Blue Jays Rotation
Kevin Gausman, TOR
Gausman is the clear ace of the Blue Jays staff, however his availability for Opening Day is in jeopardy due to a shoulder injury that has kept him out of spring action. Gausman is a top-5 SP when healthy, coming off a season in which he posted an elite 11.53 K/9 and 3.22 xFIP. That makes four straight seasons in which he has finished with a K/9 above 10.50 and an xFIP below 3.30. Considering that he has yet to pitch in any spring games, the safe bet would be that he won't be ready to start the season, which means Jose Berrios may get the Opening Day assignment. But as long as Gausman avoids setbacks, he shouldn't miss too much and shouldn't slip too far down draft boards.
Alek Manoah, TOR
Manoah is recovering from a shoulder injury and is playing catch, but it looks like he won't be ready to start the season in the Blue Jays rotation. Manoah is coming off a disaster of a season in which he produced a 5.87 ERA, 5.85 xFIP, and 6.08 BB/9, leading to two minor league demotions. The Blue Jays are going to give him another chance based on his strong results from the previous two seasons, but the advanced stats suggest that even then he was a bit lucky (4.05 xFIP from 2021-22). There's no reason to invest in Manoah in fantasy drafts this season, especially since he's out indefinitely.
Bowden Francis, TOR
With Gausman and Manoah battling injuries, a spot seems to have opened up for Francis to be a part of the Blue Jays rotation. Francis allowed just 1 unearned run in 6 innings against the Twins on Thursday, and continues to have a strong spring, now owning a 1.93 ERA across 14 IP. He pitched exclusively out of the pen for Toronto last season, but was mostly a starter throughout the minors. In 9 appearances (7 starts) at AAA last season, he recorded a 2.67 ERA and struck out 42 in 27 IP. Now it looks like he'll have a chance to prove that he can be an effective starter at the big league level.
Orioles DH/OF
Kyle Stowers, BAL
Stowers homered again against the Pirates on Thursday, giving him 4 HR's in 13 games this spring. He had a rough stint with the Orioles last season, going just 2-30 with 2 singles and 12 K's across 14 games. He had a 22.2% HardHit% and hit just 1 line drive during that time, and ended up spending most of the season in the minors. He hit for power at AAA, smashing 17 HR's in 68 games, and he has continued displaying that power this spring. If he keeps it up, he could make a case for more at bats once the season starts.
Colton Cowser, BAL
Cowser is off to a sizzling start this spring, hitting .478 with 4 HR's through his first 10 games. Cowser was sensational at AAA last season hitting .300 with 17 HR's, 62 RBI, and a .937 OPS across 87 games. His MLB stint did not go nearly as well, as he went just 7-61 (.115) with his only XBH's being two doubles. His batted ball data doesn't match the awful results, as he posted a strong 42.5% HardHit% and 25.0% LD%, yet somehow managed just a .175 BABIP. He also maintained an excellent 16.9% BB%, which allowed him to score 15 runs despite only recording 7 hits and 9 total bases. Cowser looks to be a favorite to make the Orioles' Opening Day roster, and with some better luck, the former first round pick is primed to have much better results in his second stint with the O's.
Ryan O'Hearn, BAL
O'Hearn seemingly came out of nowhere to have a productive season for the Orioles last year, hitting .289 with 14 HR's, 60 RBI, and an .802 OPS across 112 games. This was easily his best season since his rookie campaign in 2018 when he hit 12 HR's in 44 games and posted an OPS of .950. The success was no fluke either as he recorded a 51.5% HardHit% last season, and cut his K% to a career best 22.3%. The Orioles will find ways to get O'Hearn's bat into the lineup as long as he's hitting, whether it be at 1B, DH, or in the outfield, although he's still likely to have something less than a full time role.
Around the League
Kerry Carpenter, DET
Carpenter went 2-3 with a double and his first HR of the spring against the Yankees on Thursday. He got off to a late start this spring due to a hamstring injury, but it looks like he's good to go now. Carpenter established himself on the fantasy scene in 2023 when he hit .278 with 20 HR's across 459 PA's. He was sort of streaky, as much of that damage came during a 17 game stretch in August in which he blasted 9 dingers. After that, he finished the season going 34 games without a homerun. Overall, he should have a good shot at reaching 20 HR's again in 2024 as he hits the ball hard (43.1% HardHit%), but he'll probably have to put more balls in the air (35.5% FB%) if he wants to significantly increase that total. He is also a risk for BA regression as he benefited from a .338 BABIP last season.
Gavin Williams, CLE
Williams (elbow) is set to begin the season on the IL, and it's unclear how much time he will have to miss. He was having a fantastic spring, striking out 9 and walking 1 in 4.2 IP, but he has been forced to miss time because of the sore elbow. Williams posted an excellent 3.29 ERA as a rookie last season, although that number is a bit misleading, as his xFIP was 4.53 and his BB/9 was 4.06. He has been a strikeout machine in the minors, so there's reason to believe he can improve in that area once he is able to get back onto the mound.
Logan Allen, CLE
Allen allowed 1 ER in 3.1 IP against the Rockies on Thursday, striking out 2 and walking 3 in the short outing. He has had mixed results so far this spring, as he has allowed just 2 ER's in 8.1 IP across his 3 appearances, but he also has a less than ideal 6:6 K:BB. His rookie season with the Guardians was also a mixed bag, as he posted a solid 3.81 ERA, but had an elevated 3.45 BB/9 and a mediocre 4.28 xFIP. Allen consistently posted K/9's north of 11.00 in the minors, but that number crashed down to 8.55 with Cleveland last season. There's more strikeout upside, but Allen is far from a sure thing right now.
Gabriel Moreno, ARI
Moreno was scratched from the Diamondbacks lineup due on Thursday due to lower back tightness. Moreno has a solid season in 2023, hitting .284 with a .747 OPS and 19.7% K%, although it would have been nice to see more than just 7 HR's in 111 games. He hit the ball hard (41.8% HardHit%), but kept hitting it on the ground (22.0% FB%). If he can put the ball in the air a little more often, then combined with his solid contact rate, he could be one of the better catching options in baseball.
Tommy Edman, STL
Edman will open the season on the IL due to his wrist injury. Edman has consistently been a source of contact hitting and speed for the Cardinals, but it seems that he is still not fully healed from the wrist surgery he had this offseason. With Edman set to miss the beginning of the season, Dylan Carlson could get a chance for more at bats.
Gerritt Cole, NYY
Cole is not expected to require Tommy John Surgery and will hopefully be able to return to the Yankees at some point this season. Cole is the reigning Cy Young winner and has been going as a top-2 pitcher in fantasy drafts, but his value has obviously taken a huge hit because of the injury. At least it seems that barring any setbacks, Cole will be able to start contributing sometime around June.
Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL
Acuna (knee) returned to the lineup on Thursday and served as the DH. Acuna was the consensus #1 overall pick in fantasy drafts this season, and it looks like he'll be ready to go once the season starts. His combination of power, speed, and average make him a fantasy superstar as long as he can stay on the field.
]]>The 2024 Advanced Scoring Weights
Hi Folks,
If you play in a Rotisserie league, our Draft Advisory software is designed
to give you the opportunity to favor the more predictable categories in your
league. Instead of each category having an even "1" weighting, it's an
opportunity to play the percentages of predictability, allowing you to give
different weights to each Roto category that are relevant to your league
scoring. I'm sure many of you already know that categories such as Batting
Average can fluctuate wildly on a yearly basis. So wouldn't it make sense to
slightly underweight that category when creating your rankings?
Within the Setup|Edit League Settings section, select the Rotisserie scoring option and check the Advanced option located above the scoring grid. This scoring option will allow you to weigh each Rotisserie category according to your preference. Although most leagues use an equal weighing for each Rotisserie category some leagues do not. Even if your league uses an equal weighing system, it's important to understand that not every statistical category has an equal predictability.
From a predictability standpoint, here is a recent 3 year correlation in forecasting for each of the following player stat categories :
(See more category correlations by clicking
here).
In the statistical term of correlation, the range of correlation ranges from -1 to +1, with 1.00 considered a perfect "fit", the better the fit the more reliable the forecast. A .20 is considered a loose correlation, .4 a good correlation, and .6 a very good fit. Thus we know that there is a higher predictability in forecasting Homeruns, Stolen Bases, Pitcher's Strikeouts, and WHIP. Neutral categories include Runs Batted In and Runs Scored. Categories that offer poor predictability year over year includes Batting Average, ERA, and Wins.
For those who would like to play the percentages, for 2024 we suggest the following weighing within these typical categories. As an example of what these weighting signify, Batting Average entered in as a .8, which basically weighs the Batting Average category at 80%, while the Stolen Base category (which is very predictable) is entered as a 1.3, which weighs the category at 130%.
What has changed since we ran the analysis the previous season? The typical 5x5 batting category weighting remain unchanged, while there was some variability on the pitching side. Wins are slightly less predictable (based on a 3 year average), going from suggest weighting of .9 to .8, ERA became less stable dropping from our suggested weighting of .8 to a .7, and Saves have become more predictable (suggest a weighting shift from 1.0 to 1.2).
(See more categories for the Advanced settings by clicking hehere, remember to ONLY USE THE SCORING CATEGORIES THAT YOUR LEAGUE USES!)
Overall, the tweaking discussed above won't dramatically change the rankings, but you will be be increasing the odds of predictability for your team...and whenever there is an statistical advantage to gain, it's something worth exploiting. - Anthonyfont>
Draft Advisor: bring our winning strategy (Serpentine / Auction) to your draft. Our player rankings adjust as players are selected, adhering to the changing dynamics of your draft. After a player is selected/drafted, the software will display/suggest the best players remaining. Click here to purchase and start dominating your league/s today!