tag:www.insiderbaseball.com,2008:/blog//1 2008-05-10T09:26:05Z Fantasy Baseball blog, draft software, player projections, and everything needed to win your league. Movable Type 3.34 tag:www.insiderbaseball.com,2008:/blog//1.724 2008-05-10T09:24:35Z 2008-05-10T09:26:05Z

Derrek Lee blasted his 9th HR of the season yesterday afternoon as he continues his bid to hit 40+ bombs in 2008. Lee’s totals now read 9/25/.322 and his indicators right now are pretty similar to those in his 46-homer...

Tony Zoppo Derrek Lee blasted his 9th HR of the season yesterday afternoon as he continues his bid to hit 40+ bombs in 2008. Lee’s totals now read 9/25/.322 and his indicators right now are pretty similar to those in his 46-homer 2005 campaign. His BB/K is an even 1.00 (19/19) vs. a .78 in 2005, his OPS is at .978 vs. 1.080 and his BHIP is slightly higher at .265 in comparison to .259 in 2005. Lee has never had an inordinately high BHIP like you see with some high AVG hitters, but he still has a BA consistently above .300. I don’t see his BA dipping anywhere below .310 for any extended period of time this season and he looks locked in as one of the leagues biggest power hitters this year. For as good as Haren was yesterday, Ted Lilly was that much better. Lilly was fantastic as he improved to 3-4, fanned 10 batters in 7 IP while allowing only 1 ER on 3 H. The 3-hitter marks Lilly’s third straight quality start for the Cubs and he has lowered his ERA from 7.30 to 5.24. Lilly finished 2007 with an FPI of 1.70 but before yesterday that category had not broken 1.00. I know of some managers that lost patience with Lilly in April and unloaded him so you might want to scour the waiver wires to see if he’s available. He’s certainly worth a pickup now that he’s back on track. Pat Burrell is having a very good and very interesting year. I said earlier in the season that I didn’t think Burrell had turned a corner as far as patience at the plate is concerned given the fact that he is 32 years old, but I may have been wrong. Burrell’s BB/K last year was .95, easily the highest of his career. He also struck out a career low 120 times. Although 120 is still a pretty big number he at least kept up in the BB department. This season has been more of the same and even better. Burrells’ BB/K after his 3 BB performance last night is now 1.03. His BHIP is below .250 and his Ct rate is only 76% but his ISO is an astounding .322. He has collected 11 2B and 9 HR as well as 30 RBI. This says to me that while he’s not making contact as much as he should for a .300-plus batting average, he’s killing the ball when he is making contact. Burrell’s BA has dropped from .349 to .303 in his last 11 games, mainly due to a raise in K’s, but I actually don’t believe that will continue. Normally this would be a point that I’d say he’s about to hit a very bad slump and get back near his career .259 BA. However, his newfound patience at the dish will allow him to keep his average up when he’s going through cold stretches like this. In addition, his average will spike when he gets hot again. Burrell is no longer a waiver player in my opinion; I believe this is the year he finally shows us what he’s fully capable of doing. Lance Berkman is absolutely pulverizing the ball right now. Berkman went 3-4 last night against with Dodgers with a 2B, HR, 2 RBI and 2 R. The multi-hit performance extends his hitting streak to 8 games and it is also his 6th straight multi-hit game. He’s hitting an eye-popping .625 during this hit streak and his season numbers are astounding - .380/12/35 along with a .449 OBP and 1.201 OPS. Although we all know he is a great hitter, you might be thinking that a fortunate BHIP is helping him to his high BA. Wrong. Berkman’s BHIP is only .247 right now, which is below his .253 average over the last 3 years. However his BB/K is an awesome 1.33 and his K% is at 12% (10% lower than what he finished with in 2007. Another amazing thing about his start so far - he has 6 SB. This guy is easily the best player in all of baseball right now. clicking here. Not a member? Join today. ]]> tag:www.insiderbaseball.com,2008:/blog//1.723 2008-05-10T07:24:41Z 2008-05-10T07:27:51Z

Jose Contreras – Contreras has somewhat bounced back from last season’s disaster. He picked up his third win last night, pitching 7 innings of one run ball to lower his ERA under 4. Contreras has been better this year, mainly...

Michael Leone Jose Contreras – Contreras has somewhat bounced back from last season’s disaster. He picked up his third win last night, pitching 7 innings of one run ball to lower his ERA under 4. Contreras has been better this year, mainly due to inducing more groundballs. His GB:FB ration last season was 1.24, and it is 1.25 for his career. However, this season it has increased dramatically to 2.37. This has helped Contreras to lower his HR/9 from 1 last season to .45 this season. He has also lowered his BB/9, and just about the only negative thing about his numbers so far this season is that his K rate is decreasing for the 5th straight season (every year since his rookie season). Look for Contreras to be much better than last season if he keeps pitching like this. Kevin Youkilis – Kevin Youkilis is a wonderful ball player, but you might want to sell high on him, as his current power numbers, at least in terms of homeruns, are unlikely to continue. Youkilis’s current HR rate is 4.6, well above his HR rate of any year from 2004 – 2007 (2.9/1.1/2.0/2.6). Youkilis certainly has value in a loaded Boston lineup, and he will hit for a decent average. But, I think it is unlikely that he tops 20 homers on the season, even with his hot start. Lyle Overbay – Overbay appears to be regaining the doubles stroke that made him valuable during 2004 – 2006. After hitting just 2 doubles during his first 32 games, Overbay doubled 4 times in his last 3 games before last night. However, there are concerns that Overbay is not the same player he was during that time. We will give him a pass on last season’s poor performance because of his hand injury, but so far this season he is hitting just .279/.388/.378 despite a lucky singles average of .307. Also, his HR rate is a pitiful 0.8. Part of Overbay’s problems have come due to a decreased contact rate. His career average is 80%, but his contact rate so far this season is just 74%. Jon Garland – Garland took a no decision last night, despite hurling 8 shutout innings. Over the course of those 8 innings, Garland gave up 4 hits and 3 walks while striking out 2. When Garland is successful, he is able to get ground ball outs, and half of his recorded outs last night came via the groundball. However, Garland does not strike out many batters, and last night’s performance, although the end result was good, did nothing to make me think he could become more consistent. At the beginning of the year, I felt that Garland was a good value pick, but his career K rate (.52), which is not very good in the first place, has actually dropped this year to .23.]]> clicking here. Not a member? Join today. ]]> tag:www.insiderbaseball.com,2008:/blog//1.722 2008-05-09T13:35:27Z 2008-05-09T13:41:18Z

Jeff Francoeur Frenchy’s mired in a 5-31 slump that’s dropped his average to .263. Despite the slow start there are some legitimate reasons for optimism surrounding Francoeur. He’s improved his EYE up to .50, largely thanks to a significant drop...

Drew Dinkmeyer Jeff Francoeur Frenchy’s mired in a 5-31 slump that’s dropped his average to .263. Despite the slow start there are some legitimate reasons for optimism surrounding Francoeur. He’s improved his EYE up to .50, largely thanks to a significant drop in his K Rate (down from 18.5% to 8.5%). Furthermore the drop in his K Rate hasn’t corresponded in a drop in his power as his extra base hit rate has actually improved. He’s also suffering from some abnormally bad luck as evidenced by his .191 BHIP%. All are good signs for Frenchy and suggest he makes for an excellent buy-low target, start putting proposals together now because the bat’s going to heat up and the power’s going to come in bunches. Chris Iannetta: Iannetta’s a guy that a number of us here have maintained confidence in despite the early season playing time concerns and now it’s time to instruct you to transition from “keeping an eye on him” to “going out and getting him”. In fact when writing the Value Picks column earlier this week I had a tough decision who to choose between Snyder and Iannetta but went with Snyder because I felt bigger things were on the verge immediately. Iannetta’s got an intriguing bat, highlighted by his .303/.407/.508 career minor league line, and now it appears he’s got the playing time to go with it. Iannetta’s received 3 or more plate appearances in 5 consecutive games and was a late insert into Thursday’s lineup as manager Clint Hurdle wanted to keep the hot bat in the lineup. Iannetta promptly rewarded Hurdle with a 2 RBI 1B in the first inning. Rockie hitters are always worth a look and one with the minor league history that Iannetta has REALLY deserves a look. He’s another guy who has a chance to be a Top 10 catching option from here on out because of the favorable home park and lineup. He should absolutely be owned in all 2 catcher formats and is the type of guy I prefer to try to catch lightening in a bottle with rather than investing in the boring and relatively unproductive veteran catchers like Pierzynski, Varitek, Pudge, etc. Ryan Ludwick: This is getting rather ridiculous don’t you think? Ryan Ludwick hit 2 more HR’s on Thursday capping off his ridiculous trip to Coors Field in which he went 9-13 with 3 2B’s and 3 HR’s. Ludwick now has 20 extra base hits in 91 AB’s and is hitting .363/.427/.758. He’s slugging .758!!! I don’t even know what to say because he’s hitting so many flipping extra base hits that his .289 BHIP% doesn’t seem ridiculous. Now, we all know this can’t continue but the truth is Ludwick’s always had power, slugging .501 for his minor league career in which he hit 140 HR’s and 183 2B’s in 2780 AB’s. Ludwick’s showing the same strikeout rates that left his minor league average in the .270’s so I’d expect the average to come down in a hard way with a prolonged strikeout laden slump. But he’s also showing an improved BB Rate which shows improved pitch recognition and likely will lead to the continued strong power outputs. He’s a tough “sell-high” candidate since most probably don’t believe this can last, so he’s likely better to hold onto than to deal. But the power is very much for real and Ludwick looks on his way to producing the type of season we expected out of Rick Ankiel coming into the year (lots of power, lots of K’s, middling batting average). Garrett Atkins: Atkins just keeps hitting as he extended his hitting streak to 7 games with a 2-3 performance on Thursday. Atkins has now hit safely in 21 of his last 22 games and has gone hitless in just FIVE games all year long! It’s not surprising to see Atkins hitting, but what is surprising is how much he’s hitting and when he’s hitting. Atkins improved his line to .326/.355/.535, quite an impressive line for a traditional 2nd half hitter (career .827 1st half OPS vs. .880 2nd half OPS). Atkins looks to be on his way to replicating his monstrous 2006 season with the strong start in ’08 but one thing that’s not translating is his EYE. Atkins isn’t walking at all right now with just 7 BB’s in his first 144 AB’s, while his K Rate has remained relatively stable. A quick look at Atkins P/PA (pitchers/plate appearance) shows a drastic drop from his consistent 3.80-3.90 down to 3.39 this season. This suggests Atkins is simply seeing a lot of pitches he likes early in at bats and hacking away. When he’s fouling off pitches he’s getting behind and striking out at the same rate he has in the past but putting more balls in play early in the count. The lack of walks is always a concern for a batter who’s shown great plate discipline in the past, but I think this is more of an indication that Atkins feels good at the plate right now and is seeing a lot to hit rather than a decline in his skill level. Rich Hill: I haven’t been able to touch on Rich Hill and since I have quite a bit of emotion and passion tied up in this situation I feel the need to get this out there. Before I get into this any further it should be known that I feel strongly that Hill’s poor performance is a mental roadblock that stems from a bit of a fragile psyche and an overbearing and impatient manager. Hill’s demotion was utterly ridiculous given the way Lou Pineilla has handled the rest of the Cubs staff, specifically veterans Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis. While Lilly and Marquis have struggled with their control early in the season and struggled lasting deep into games they had yet to be publically threatened through the media like Hill was (After Marquis terrible start Sunday night, Pineilla finally had to address the situation, likely because of the way he handled Hill). From the first struggles Hill had this season, Pineilla began rumbling that he might send Hill to the bullpen. When Hill did have moderate success, Pineilla noted through the media that he was trying to give Hill confidence by pulling him early (Note to Lou: Good idea, but don’t tell the media essentially confirming publicly that YOU the manager have little confidence in the starter). In any game Hill pitched, Pineilla exhibited a quick hook and an itchy dial finger for the bullpen. Any sign of trouble and the bullpen would start. Then Pineilla began skipping Rich Hill’s starts. Having a player struggling with command pitch on 8 days rest is an interesting tactic for a pitcher you’re trying to help find their rhythm. Finally Rich Hill was pulled from a 1-0 game in the first inning with the bases loaded and 2 outs after he walked four of the first six batters. Two days later Jason Marquis walked 3 of the first 5 batters (the same exact situation as Hill) and the bullpen didn’t warm. Marquis was left in and gave up a line drive rocket that luckily found Derrek Lee’s glove. While all the other starters have had a chance to work through their control problems on the mound, Hill has been given a one way ticket to Iowa. For a guy who hasn’t responded well to pressure in the past, breathing down his neck on every start and publicly displaying your lack of confidence in him didn’t seem like a very intelligent way to handle the young player. Regardless, what’s done is done. In Hill’s first start in the minors, he walked just 1 in 5 innings while striking out 5. In my opinion this furthers the opinion that this isn’t a mechanical issue and it’s more in Rich’s head. Don’t get me wrong, the main issue with this situation is Rich Hill’s fragile psyche, but I don’t particularly feel the manager put the player in the best situation to perform here and I worry about Hill’s long-term ability to have success pitching in front of Pineilla’s over-bearing nature. Hopefully Jon Lieber’s horrendous outing on Wednesday shows Pineilla that he needs Hill and if Hill’s going to regain confidence and pitch instead of aiming the ball, as Pineilla has publicly asked him to do, maybe Hill’s confidence would be helped by a manager that actually exhibits confidence in him. While Lieber was getting blown up (I still like Lieber if he gets two starts next week. In fact I like any Cubs starter not named Marquis who gets two starts next week), I went and scooped up Rich Hill in every league he was available. I don’t think this is a mechanical issue that needs to be fixed and I think Hill will prove that with another good start this weekend, after which he’ll be called up immediately. Hill’s value for the rest of the season is one of those things you either believe in or you don’t. While I’m worried Pineilla’s managerial style isn’t conducive to Hill’s success, I do believe in Rich Hill’s talent. So for now I’m hoarding him on the bench and I suggest you do the same. There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning. Members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here. Not a member? Join today. ]]> tag:www.insiderbaseball.com,2008:/blog//1.721 2008-05-08T19:46:16Z 2008-05-08T19:48:27Z

Gavin Floyd: Despite flirting with two no-hitters this year, there is not much to get excited about when looking at Floyd’s skill set, 4.3 K/9 and a 4.1 BB/9. His high FB% of 53% is going to lead to big...

Thomas Massimo Gavin Floyd: Despite flirting with two no-hitters this year, there is not much to get excited about when looking at Floyd’s skill set, 4.3 K/9 and a 4.1 BB/9. His high FB% of 53% is going to lead to big trouble when pitching in cozy US Cellular Field. He can’t count on a 79% strand rate and a .095 BHIP% to last for too long. This is the perfect time to sell high on Floyd. Fausto Carmona: Despite having a 2.95 ERA, Carmona’s skills have significantly deteriorated from his outstanding rookie season, 2007/2008 K/9’s of 5.7/3.4 and BB/9’s of 2.6/7.0. The incredibly high amount of ground balls that he induces, 67% GB% is helping, but once more of the many balls that he allows to be put in play find holes, .256 BHIP%, he will have major problems unless he can cut down on the walks. The sample size is small but you have to wonder if hitters have learned to recognize his sinker and lay off of it because they know it will fall outside of the strike zone. Keith Foulke: Foulke, who has been out with a neck injury, is expected back today. He has been mentioned as a possible replacement if closer Huston Street is traded. After missing all of last season when he retired due to elbow problems, Foulke is a big injury risk. Although his skills look good so far, 7.7 K/9 and a 1.3 BB/9, the sample size is tiny, just 7 innings, so it is hard to get a read on whether Foulke can stay injury free and maintain these skills over a longer period time. It is not worth stashing Foulke away on a reserve list in mixed leagues hoping that he will get a shot to close. Vincente Padilla: Don’t be fooled by Padilla’s numbers, 5-2 with a 3.02 ERA in 8 starts. He is enjoying an 83% strand rate and .233 BHIP%. In addition, his BB/9 of 3.2 is bordering on trouble and his history suggests he will soon enter the trouble territory, 2005/2006/2007 BB/9’s of 4.5/3.2/3.7. Matt Joyce: The recently called up Joyce could see some decent playing time with the Tigers. He was showing some nice power in Triple-A, 5 home runs and 6 doubles in 97 AB, but his .299 batting average was propped up by a .293 BHIP%. His poor Ct% of 72% and BB/K of .41 in the minors this year means that if you roster him, you may get some pop but will be trading it off for batting average downside. There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning, members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here: www.fantistics.com/baseball00/. Not a member? Join today: www.fantistics.com/join/join.php3 tag:www.insiderbaseball.com,2008:/blog//1.720 2008-05-08T14:24:22Z 2008-05-08T14:28:44Z

Nick Markakis- BAL- Hot- Since his last multi-hit game on May 2nd, Markakis had been in a 1-for-15 slump that had shaved 28 points from his batting average, dropping it from .284 to .256. He got half of that back...

Paul Sauberer Nick Markakis- BAL- Hot- Since his last multi-hit game on May 2nd, Markakis had been in a 1-for-15 slump that had shaved 28 points from his batting average, dropping it from .284 to .256. He got half of that back yesterday, going 3-for-5 with a run and now stands at .270. One thing that stands out is that he had a dramatic change in strikeout rate. In April, Markakis had 26 Ks in 91 ABs, including 5 in the last 4 games of the month. Then he started out by striking out only twice in the first 6 games of May, covering 23 ABs. Markakis’ April batting average was .286 and he was batting .130 in May before yesterday. The two times he did not get a hit yesterday he struck out, equaling his total of the previous 6 games. It’s just a guess, but maybe Markakis was doing some sort of experiment to try and cut down on his strikeouts that may have affected another part of his swing. Dallas Braden- OAK- Hot- For Braden, yesterday was a day full of irony. He ended up getting credited with the win when Mark Ellis hit a walk off homer in the 10th inning against the Orioles. This was after Braden threw 2-1/3 shutout innings, allowing only a walk and striking out 2. It was his second career major league win. The first was also against the Orioles, in Braden’s major league debut last year. The first bits of irony kick in here because Braden is likely to be sent to AAA when Keith Foulke is activated from the DL in the next couple of days. So, not only could Braden be sent down after pitching in a very effective outing but it will be after beating the only team he has defeated. To add a further bit of irony, he will probably be sent down before the A’s go to face Texas, which means that Dallas will not be going with the team to Dallas. Somewhere in this are the makings of an existentialist stage play. Jered Weaver- LAA- Cold- Weaver was extremely inefficient last night, needing 82 pitches to get 10 outs. His strike percentage was 62% and he only walked on in his 3-1/3 IP, so the problem was not an inability to find the strike zone. Rather, it was that Weaver was like a waiter in an Italian restaurant, serving meatballs to the KC batters. Hitters have a .294 average against Weaver this year. Some of it can be attributed to bad luck, but his BHIP% has been falling (down to .299). Weaver’s strikeout and K ratios are very close to those of 2007, but this year, instead of having an ERA (3.91) more than half a run lower than expected (4.49), the numbers are close to the same (4.36 ERA compared to 4.27 XERA before last night). This indicates that his ERA is more closely reflecting his underlying numbers. Besides waiting for luck even out, Weaver needs to help himself by reclaiming his strikeout ratio of his impressive rookie campaign in order to boost his success. Jose Guillen- KC- Hot- Guillen added 20 points to his batting average last night by going 3-for-3 with 2 doubles and 2 runs scored. He is still 15 points south of the Mendoza line, but maybe this is the start of a much needed regression to the mean. Guillen has been pounded by a .111 BHIPx. His production should bounce back. Shawn Marcum- TOR- Hot- Marcum has failed to throw a quality start only once in 7 outings this season. However, an extremely low BHIP% of .181 may indicate that his success so far this year has been highly luck dependent. Marcum did have some very good signs in last night’s game, though, striking out 9 batters for the second straight start and only allowing one walk, while throwing 70 of his 110 pitches for strikes. Marcum may not be as good as his early production numbers, but he is showing improvement over past years. There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning. Members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here. Not a member? Join today. ]]> tag:www.insiderbaseball.com,2008:/blog//1.719 2008-05-08T13:47:45Z 2008-05-08T13:49:35Z

Joey Votto - Votto was locked-in against the Cubs on Wednesday, turning the power hat-trick of 3-HR (and a SB), and improving his seasons numbers considerably in just one day. The talented Reds first baseman saw his FPI rise from...

Joe Ribando Ryan Howard - Its almost comical at this point. Remember those kids in little league who hit 9th and struck-out every single time they got to the plate? Watching Ryan Howard reminds me of those kids (no offense to any of those people who may now be subscribers). Here are some K figures from Howard's 2008 season that are simply startling. (1) He has struck out at least once in 6 out of the 7 games in May, (2) He has struck out 3-times in one game 5 times since the start of the season, (3) He is averaging a strikeout per every 2.9 trips to the play, and (4) He is on pace for a record-shattering 233 strikeouts. The best thing you can do for now is sit, wait, laugh (if you have a sense of humor), and hope he turns it around soon. The good news is that his HR/AB is still sub-20.0, but for his original fantasy value, it should be much better as we expect a 40+ HR performance. Brad Penny - As Vin Scully said on the Dodgers broadcast yesterday, "That closes the book on Penny and its not a best-seller." With just yesterday's game against the Mets, Penny's ERA rose from 3.19 to 4.79. So what happened? He gave up 10 hits, 10 ER, and 3 BB in 4.2 IP, bringing his WHIP to 1.47 and H/9 to 10.0. While this is just one start and anyone could have a blow-up, this is the third time he has given up 10 hits in a start this year! He's only 3-for-8 in quality starts and his K/BB is just 1.29 with a K/9 of 4.29. There's nothing good going on for Penny owners right now and you may consider keeping him benched next week in his first start against the Brewers before deciding to pitch him against the Angels later in the week. John Maine - A great sign for Mets fans and Maine owners as John Maine hurls another quality start and earns his 4th win of the season. Granted, the run support (12 runs) didn't hurt, but Maine cruised to victory against the Dodgers by hurling 8.1 IP on just 4 hits, 1 ER, 2BB, and 4 K's. He has given up 2 ER or less in each of his starts except for his 2008 debut (where he gave up 4 ER to the Braves in Atlanta). While Johan Santana gets most of the attention in NY, Maine deserves as much attention as one of the few bright-spots in 2008 for the Mets. His K/9 of 7.07 combined with a HR/9 of 0.64 keeps his value rising as he settles into a comfortable #2 role in the rotation. A 2-start pitcher in Week 7 has him facing the Nationals and the Yankees. Lastings Milledge - Milledge has been a disappointment in his first 5 weeks of full-time production. After hitting a homerun in just his 2nd game with the Nationals on March 31st, Milledge has gone homer-less since, totaling 109 AB without a dinger. In April, Milledge hit just .266 with an OPS of .726 and FPI of 0.52. His first week of May has been even more disappoint, hitting just .217 with no power and no run/RBI production. He's 3-for-6 in stolen bases, so he is running as expected, but with an OBP of .326, his opportunities are fewer than forecasted. There's upside here as Milledge settles into an everyday role with the Nationals. I wouldn't be shocked to see him go on a HR tear at some point with a preseason 20/20 prediction still possible. There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning. Members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here. Not a member? Join today. ]]> tag:www.insiderbaseball.com,2008:/blog//1.718 2008-05-08T06:53:48Z 2008-05-08T07:02:02Z

American League 30 Austin Jackson NYY OF B+ 23:17 K:BB and 82% CT% are fine, but where's the pop? 0 HR in 125 at-bats. 43 Jose Tabata NYY OF B Discipline issues and batting just .232. Is 8-for-15 in last...

David Regan American League 30 Austin Jackson NYY OF B+ 23:17 K:BB and 82% CT% are fine, but where's the pop? 0 HR in 125 at-bats. 43 Jose Tabata NYY OF B Discipline issues and batting just .232. Is 8-for-15 in last 4 games however. 44 Beau Mills CLE 1B B The bad: .233 AVG. The good: 20:24 K:BB. .290 AVG though in last 9 games. 46 Ben Revere MIN OF B Nice debut: .432 with 3:3 K:BB in 37 at-bats. .236 ISO isn't sustainable, but it's good to see. 49 John Shelby CHW OF B College guy with intriguing tools and savvy. Son of the ex-big leaguer with the same name. 15 Fautino de los Santos OAK SP A- Shut down with a sore elbow. Hopefully nothing serious, but maybe it explains his 5.87 ERA. 19 Jordan Walden LAA SP B+ Has been so-so in last three starts, but he's generating a lot of GBs and has great stuff. 20 Adam Miller CLE SP B+ 11 hits in 3.2 innings last time out is a huge concern. Hope the elbow is okay. 25 Ian Kennedy NYY SP B+ Awful for the Yankees as he wasn't commanding his fringy stuff. 7.1 S.O. innings in 1st AAA start. 27 Luke Hochevar KC SP B+ 4.86 ERA in three starts. Not sure if he's going to stick, but he'll make 20 big league starts this year. National League 14 Andrew McCutcheon PIT OF A- .360 in last 6 games and .290/.389/.508 overall with 6 HR and 9 SB. Time to trade Bay or Nady. 15 Geovany Soto CHC C A- No longer a true "prospect" like others on this list. Will drop off list later this month. 17 Chase Headley SD OF A- Hit just .242 in April, but now .412 in last eight games. Should be SD LF by midseason at worst. 22 Matt Antonelli SD 2B B+ 4-for-12 with HR in last 3 but still just .196 on the year. 20:19 K:BB does give us some hope. 23 Jason Heyward ATL OF B+ Doesn't turn 19 until Aug. .307/.345/.433 with 8 SB. Power will come. 7 Homer Bailey CIN SP A 23 K in last 20 IP. 2.72 ERA in 7 GS and shouldn't be too far from replacing Matt Belisle. 10 Jarrod Parker ARI SP A- It's not fair how much great pitching the Dbacks have. One run or less in all five starts for Parker. 21 Carlos Carrasco PHI SP B+ Got beat up on 4/23 but rebounded to win last two starts. Overall - 39:14 K:BB in 36 IP. 24 Tommy Hanson ATL SP B+ May be a late-season call-up at this rate - 0.90 ERA, 49:11 K:BB in 40 IP. 36 Jair Jurrjens ATL SP B 2.08 ERA in his last four starts. Seems he's up to stay. ]]> Prospect Central. Link: http://www.fantistics.com/baseball00/M-Prospect.htm. Not a member? Join today link:www.fantistics.com/join/join.php3]]> tag:www.insiderbaseball.com,2008:/blog//1.717 2008-05-08T01:37:50Z 2008-05-08T01:39:36Z

Unfavorable Matchups, American League Joe Mauer Minnesota (6 for 15, .400 CS%): 4 against Texas (Ian Kinsler, David Murphy), 3 against Detroit (Carlos Guillen, Curtis Granderson) Kurt Suzuki Oakland (7 for 20, .350 CS%): 3 against Tampa (Carl Crawford, BJ...

Thomas Massimo Unfavorable Matchups, American League Joe Mauer Minnesota (6 for 15, .400 CS%): 4 against Texas (Ian Kinsler, David Murphy), 3 against Detroit (Carlos Guillen, Curtis Granderson) Kurt Suzuki Oakland (7 for 20, .350 CS%): 3 against Tampa (Carl Crawford, BJ Upton, Jason Bartlett), 3 against Boston (Jacoby Ellsbury, Coco Crisp, Julio Lugo, Dustin Pedroia) Ivan Rodriguez Detroit (5 for 16, .313 CS%): 3 against Seattle (Ichiro Suzuki, Adrian Beltre), 3 against Minnesota (Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young) Favorable Matchups, American League John Buck Kansas City (1 for 15, .067 CS%): 4 against Boston (Jacoby Ellsbury, Coco Crisp, Julio Lugo, Dustin Pedroia), 3 against Toronto (Alex Rios) Jason Varitek Boston (2 for 12, .167% CS%): 4 against Kansas City (Joey Gathright), 3 against Oakland (Rajai Davis) AJ Pierzynski CHW (4 for 21, .190 CS%): 3 against Cleveland (Grady Sizemore, Franklin Gutierrez), 3 against LAA (Chone Figgins, Erick Aybar) Unfavorable Matchups, National League Paul Bako Cincinnati (8 for 18, .444 CS%): 3 against LAD (Juan Pierre, Matt Kemp, Rafael Furcal), 4 against San Diego (Tadahito Iguchi) Jason Kendall Milwaukee (10 for 24, .417 CS%): 3 against Pittsburgh (Nate McLouth, Jason Bay), 3 against Washington (Felipe Lopez, Lastings Milledge) Geovany Soto CHC (9 for 24, .409 CS%): 3 against Houston (Michael Bourn, Kaz Matsui, Lance Berkman), 3 against Pittsburgh (Nate McLouth, Jason Bay) Favorable Matchups, National League Josh Bard San Diego (6 for 35, .171 CS%): 3 against St. Louis (Skip Schumaker), 4 against Cincinnati (Brandon Phillips, Ryan Freel, Corey Patterson) Chris Snyder Arizona (3 for 15, .200 CS%): 3 against Florida (Hanley Ramirez), 3 against Atlanta (Kelly Johnson) Yadier Molina St. Louis (4 for 19, .211 CS%): 3 against San Diego (Tadahito Iguchi), 3 against LAD (Juan Pierre, Matt Kemp, Rafael Furcal) Pickup Recommendations: Joey Gathright: Gathright is still available in many leagues. He is a must own in AL-only and deep mixed leagues. An injury to any of the Royals starting outfielders makes him a factor in shallower mixed leagues. Eugenio Velez: At this point Velez, 0/7/.233, is not worth using in mixed leagues, but with 4 triples and 7 steals, he should be owned in all NL-only leagues. If he can learn to walk a little more, 4.6% BB%, and receives regular playing time, he would be worth using in mixed leagues. Scott Podsednik: With a good, crowded outfield in Colorado, Podsednik’s playing time will be limited, but when he gets in there, he is running, a perfect 6 for 6 in just 48 PA. The lack of playing time limits his value to NL-only leagues. Corey Patterson: Due to a seemingly slow start, 4/11/200 in 90 AB, Patterson has been dropped in many leagues, but he is suffering from an absurdly low .085 BHIP%. If the Reds stick with, he is worth owning in all formats. Coco Crisp: Jacoby Ellsbury is severely limiting Crisp’s playing, but when he plays, Crisp is running well, 5 for 5 in steals. For now his value is limited to AL-only leagues, but a trade that would land him a full-time position would make him worth using in mixed leagues. Rajai Davis: The A’s outfield is very crowded and playing time could really dry up if Travis Buck comes back from his injury or the A’s decide to call up hot prospect Carlos Gonzalez, but for the time being Davis can be used in AL-only leagues. The A’s are not known to be a running team and Davis has only attempted one steal in 11 games with A’s, but since it is his speed that drives his value, it is doubtful that the A’s would have acquired and not have him run. Jason Bartlett: Bartlett has been a disappointment so far this year, 0/6/.243 with 4 steals in 5 tries, but last year he swiped 23 bases in 26 attempts and would have had more if he didn’t injure his hamstring. If he can regain some of the plate patience that he exhibited last year, 2007/2008 BB%’s of 8.9%/2.7%, he may be able to take better advantage of his speed. There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning, members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here: www.fantistics.com/baseball00/. Not a member? Join today: www.fantistics.com/join/join.php3 tag:www.insiderbaseball.com,2008:/blog//1.716 2008-05-07T10:52:17Z 2008-05-07T10:57:46Z

Grady Sizemore – Sizemore had a monster 2006 season in which he had an amazing 92 extra base hits, an average of .57 extra base hits per game. Sizemore was solid last season, but even in that year and so...

Michael Leone Grady Sizemore – Sizemore had a monster 2006 season in which he had an amazing 92 extra base hits, an average of .57 extra base hits per game. Sizemore was solid last season, but even in that year and so far this year he is yet to show the same explosiveness at the plate. Last year he had 29 less extra base hits. Currently, he is averaging only .33 extra base hits per game, after going 0 - 3 last night. Interestingly, Sizemore’s distribution of line drives, ground balls, and fly balls has been virtually identical this year and last year as it was to that 2006 season. Meanwhile Sizemore’s EYE has actually improves. Up to .65 last year, from .52 in ’06, and it is at .78 so far on this season. So, it is very intriguing as to why Sizemore’s extra base hits have declined. Maybe other pitchers are learning to stay away from his hot zones, turning some of his doubles into singles, but for now I am buying low on Sizemore, figuring his final stat line will end up somewhere between his 2006 and 2007 levels. Ryan Garko – Garko might make for a nice buy low player. It is highly unlikely that he, and the Cleveland offense as a whole, will stay this cold for the entire season. Through his first 27 games, Garko was hit .237, but that was in large part due to a .208 singles average. The past two seasons Garko’s singles averages were .268 and .263, and since Garko’s EYE has actually improved quite a bit this year (to 1 from .36), there is no explanation for his dip in singles average other than bad luck. Also, Garko’s HR rate is a mere 1.9. It was 4 last season and 3.6 the year before. Garko should go on a hot streak sometime soon, as his singles average and HR rate should start to return to their normal levels soon. Andy Sonnanstine – Sonnanstine had rough outing, giving up 10 hits and 4 earned runs in 6 innings of work versus the Blue Jays. However, it was good enough to improve his record to 5-1. Sonnanstine has developed into a serviceable fantasy pitcher in AL-only leagues. Most of his success is a result of excellent control. Sonnanstine is allowing just 1.86 walks per 9 innings pitched. Many people probably wrote Sonnanstine off, after he posted a 5.86 ERA last season, but he was rather unlucky. His BABIP was .327, and that was reflected in the fact that his expected ERA was over a full run lower than that terribly high ERA of 5.86. Sonnanstine, if he improves his K rate to what it was last year (.51 this season, .71 last season) could very well post an ERA in the low 4’s and a WHIP around 1.25. Also, remember, that Sonnanstine’s ERA and WHIP (4.13 and 1.16) reflect two very rough starts versus the Yankees. Gavin Floyd – Now might be the perfect time to sell high on Gavin Floyd. Last night, Floyd, for the second time this year, flirted with a no hitter, until Joe Mauer hit a double with one out in the 9th. Floyd’s final line was 8.3 IP with 4 strikeouts and 3 walks. He also allowed an unearned run. You hate to discredit a guy too much after a performance like that, but Floyd continues to live on the edge. Tony mentioned Floyd’s fly ball tendencies, and 11 of Floyd’s outs came via fly outs. Yet, Floyd’s HR:FB% (7.8%) is almost half of his career average (14.8%). When that number rises, along with his BABIP (.171 and sure to be lower after last night), Floyd is going to run into a few tough outings, and it would not surprise me to see his ERA above 4 before long.]]> clicking here. Not a member? Join today.]]> tag:www.insiderbaseball.com,2008:/blog//1.715 2008-05-07T03:29:27Z 2008-05-07T03:31:11Z

Doug Davis: Less than a month removed from surgery to remove a cancerous thyroid, Davis threw a simulated game on Monday and is expected to make the first of two rehab starts on Saturday. The two rehab starts will give...

Thomas Massimo Doug Davis: Less than a month removed from surgery to remove a cancerous thyroid, Davis threw a simulated game on Monday and is expected to make the first of two rehab starts on Saturday. The two rehab starts will give a good indication of the level of Davis’ strength. Even at full strength, Davis’ control is worrisome, 2005/2006/2007 BB/9’s 3.8/4.5/4.4. Ryan Howard: While his power is slightly off, 6 home runs and 3 doubles in 142 PA, it is his batting average that is really suffering, .169. With his Ct% remaining at dangerously low levels, 2007/2008 #’s of 62%/61%, Howard will need to bring his power up to previous levels, 2006/2007 HR’s of 58/47, and have a BHIP% north of .260, 2006/2007/2008 BHIP%’s of .309/.268/.175, to not hurt a team in the batting average category. Justin Upton: Upton’s power, 13 extra-base hits in 131 PA, and plate patience, 10.2 BB%, at such a young age, he doesn’t turn 21 until August 25th, makes him a superstar in the making. However, with a 73% Ct% and a .380 BHIP% expect some downside in the near future from his .348 batting average. Adam Kennedy: With a .333 batting average in 78 AB, Kennedy is earning playing time in St. Louis. His 86% Ct% and 9.3% BB% look good, but be aware that his is not hitting for any power, 0 home and 3 doubles, and his .349 BHIP% points to some good fortune that will not last. Also, it has been a few years, since Kennedy has been an effective basestealer, 24 for 37 over the last three seasons, so don’t expect him to be a good speed source. Corey Patterson: Patterson is playing better than his .200 batting average would indicate. He is making excellent contact, 92% Ct%, hitting for power, 12 extra-base hits in 90 AB, and stealing bases, 5 for 7. A ridiculously low .085 BHIP% is holding down his average. If the Reds stick with him, look for some nice batting average upside. There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning, members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here: www.fantistics.com/baseball00/. Not a member? Join today: www.fantistics.com/join/join.php3 tag:www.insiderbaseball.com,2008:/blog//1.714 2008-05-07T02:35:56Z 2008-05-07T02:39:29Z

We’re back with another edition of Wednesday’s Value Picks! As we’ve mentioned before, every Wednesday we’ll go digging for diamonds in the rough that is the Free Agent Pool. While many of the selections in the past have been geared...

Drew Dinkmeyer C: Chris Snyder I’ve written about Snyder at length during this season but fantasy owners still seem cautious as Snyder’s owned in just 1.3% of ESPN.com leagues and just 30% of CBS leagues. Snyder was a popular pre-season sleeper pick after hitting .284/.366/.503 in the 2nd half but has fallen out of favor with a slow start, hitting just .247/.374/.452. But while the actual numbers are falling, the indicators are rising as Snyder’s improved his EYE from .60 to .68 (rising 3 years in a row), his RBI Rate from 12.8 to 17.1, and his extra base hit rate from 10% to 13.3%. He’s making improvements as a player and has the benefit of playing in a good home park (113 park factor) and in a vastly improved lineup. I have him as a Top 10 catcher and just outside my Top 5 the rest of the way and he’s not being treated as such. He should be owned in every league so if you’re not an owner of Russell Martin, Victor Martinez, Geovany Soto, Joe Mauer, or Brian McCann you should consider adding Snyder immediately. 1B: Matt Stairs When the Blue Jays decided to release Frank Thomas, Adam Lind was the main player touched on as we, the fantasy analyst, tend to get a bit excited at the thought of a new player getting called up into a spot. It’s like having a new toy to play with, but the truth is sometimes that old toy is just as good if not better. Like a good game of RBI Baseball or Tecmo SuperBowl! And that’s what Matt Stairs is to the Toronto Blue Jays, he’s RBI Baseball. Heck Stairs might even be old enough to be in a version of RBI Baseball, but regardless there’s one thing this 40 year old has always been able to do throughout his career and that’s Hit. Stairs has posted a solid .847 OPS throughout his career but hasn’t found consistent playing time because he’s really out of position anywhere on the field. The good news is with the Big Hurt gone Stairs doesn’t need a position to play! Last year in just 357 AB’s Stairs hit 21 HR’s and for his career has hit a HR about every 19 AB’s. Project that rate over 500 AB’s and Stairs is a 25+ HR candidate! While he’s not in a particularly tremendous Blue Jays lineup (the east coast Padres), he is hitting in the middle of it which should help him to reach 75-80 Runs and 80-85 RBI’s. He’s basically an older version of Ryan Garko with less upside but unlike Garko he’s owned in just 7.4% of ESPN league and 14% of CBS leagues. 2B: Eugenio Velez There are two things we look for in fantasy when trying to identify diamonds in the rough: Talent and Opportunity. Well Velez has one of those, I’ll let you figure out which one, and he sure can run having stolen 50+ bases in each of his last two minor league seasons. Unfortunately for Velez, as the saying goes, he can’t steal first base and he’s not much of a hitter having posted a .743 OPS at age 25 in AA. But he does have tremendous speed and is making decent enough contact and is hitting enough Ground Balls (59%) that his current .232 batting average should be on the rise and settle in closer to the .270-.280 range. He won’t offer anything in the power department or the RBI category, but he has a decent chance to score 70+ Runs and swipe 30-40 bases. The swipes are the key because that many SB’s can make a big impact in deeper leagues and as such Velez should be owned in more than the 1.8% of ESPN and 14% of CBS leagues he’s currently owned in. SS: Ronny Cedeno With Velez it was all about opportunity, with Ronny Cedeno (or ONEDEC as my beloved friends at Bleed Cubbie Blue have nicknamed him, because ya know… he’s “turned it around”) it’s all about talent. Cedeno was an all glove no hit guy for much of his minor league career but he was always usually young for his level and in 2005 he began to show signs with the bat posting a .355/.403/.518 line in 245 AAA AB’s. He then was given an everyday job in the debacle that was the 2006 Chicago Cubs where he didn’t hit at all (.610 OPS) before returning to AAA last season and posting a .959 OPS in another 287 AB’s. So coming into this season he had mastered the AAA level and early on in the 2008 campaign he’s showing significant improvements at handling major league pitching in limited playing time. Cedeno’s hit .383/.473/.574 in 47 AB’s while showing significant improvement in his EYE (.88) while showing an impressive BB Rate (12.3%) and a reduced K Rate (15.1%), while also making big improvements in his power (6 2B’s, 1 HR in 47 AB’s). The only thing holding Cedeno back from making an impact in deeper leagues is Lou Pineilla. Pineilla has fallen in love with the grittiness and scrappiness of both Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot, but Cedeno was given the start last night and Pineilla indicated Cedeno’s performance would dictate his future playing time (interesting since this hadn’t been the case before…), so maybe there’s a shot for Cedeno at more consistent playing time going forward. Cedeno’s also got dual eligibility in leagues with 2B as another option so if speed isn’t your primary need, I actually like Cedeno more than Velez. Given his playing time situation its understandable that Cedeno’s only owned in just 6% of CBS leagues and 20% of ESPN leagues. 3B: Blake DeWitt One of the more under-looked and impressive stories of the 2008 season has been Blake DeWitt’s ability to handle the Dodgers starting 3B position. Coming into the season DeWitt had less than 300 AB’s A-Ball and had posted an underwhelming career minor league line of .279/.333/.444, but he was widely regarded as a solid prospect and his peripherals back up his strong early season performance. DeWitt’s shown tremendous plate discipline posting an EYE of 1.00 which is extremely impressive for a player of his experience and showed adequate power with an extra base hit rate of just under 9%. DeWitt’s staying power worries me a little bit not only because of the pressure for playing time brought on once Andy LaRoche returns but because I’m unsure if he’ll be able to continue this level of performance based on his minor league history. However, all of the current peripherals suggest he’s legitimate and while hitting in a deep and hot Dodgers lineup he should offer nice run production (on pace for 80+ runs and RBIs). DeWitt’s current only owned 3.3% of ESPN leagues and 7% of CBS leagues. OF: Moises Alou I’m cheating a little bit on this one since Alou is owned in 16% of ESPN leagues and 27% of CBS leagues, but I feel like Alou can make enough of an impact in all formats that these numbers will rise into the 80’s and 90’s within 2 weeks, so I’m focusing on him. Alou’s a remarkable talent whose old and injury prone and thus often gets overlooked by fantasy owners, but when he’s in the lineup he offers consistently strong production. He’s posted an OPS above .900 in 7 of the last 9 seasons. These are his age 32-41 seasons and he’s producing at an elite level. He’s hitting in a Mets lineup that should produce plenty of run-scoring opportunities and he provides a nice combination of good power skills with a great batting average as he’s hit a HR every 20 AB’s and hit over .310 during the last 3 seasons. He can be had on the cheap right now and makes for a very nice OF option in all formats. Two-Start SP: Jon Lieber I’ve typically finished these Value Pick columns off with a 2 start pitcher recommendation for the following week since I know many fantasy owners play in leagues that value 2 start pitchers or streaming starters, so this week let’s focus on the newest member of the Cubs rotation Jon Lieber. Lieber gets two extremely favorable matchups next week at home against San Diego and Pittsburgh. Both of these opponents are basically running out AAAA offenses right now and Lieber’s the kind of spot starter I like to use since he rolls a lot of ground balls and doesn’t walk many batters, thus he’s usually pretty safe. Lieber doesn’t strike too many batters out anymore but he should be good for 3-4 per start while posting solid ratio numbers and hopefully some W’s. Lieber’s only owned in just 13% of CBS leagues and just 1.2% of ESPN leagues. He’s a nice two-start option readily available for you to scoop up for next week’s favorable matchups. ]]> tag:www.insiderbaseball.com,2008:/blog//1.713 2008-05-06T15:26:21Z 2008-05-06T15:28:37Z

Delmon Young - One of the biggest Delmon Young supporters I know asked me yesterday about including him in a deal, so the time may very well have come to put the full-court press on his owners in your respective...

Schuyler Dombroske Delmon Young - One of the biggest Delmon Young supporters I know asked me yesterday about including him in a deal, so the time may very well have come to put the full-court press on his owners in your respective leagues. Young's poor plate discpline is certainly hampering his development, but he's still just 22. His walk and strikeout rates are both still in the poor category, but they have both improved thus far this season (1:24 BB:AB last year, 1:16 this year; 1:5.1 K:AB last year, 1:5.4 this year). He's running more, just not hitting for any power yet. It's possible that he turns into someone like, well, a right-handed Jacque Jones, and that's the downside. He's definitely worth having if his owner has soured on him, particularly if you're building for the future. Wladimir Balentien - Balentien is a tough guy to figure, as he has some very positive traits (excellent power, plus speed, seemingly improved discipline the past two years), but also some severely negative ones (high K rate and its corresponding effeect on AVG, poor fit for home park). Fittingly, he's hit a couple of homers and struck out a whole passel (8, to be precise) of times in his first 21 AB's, and he looks a bit raw (even for a 23 year old). Still, the M's have virtually no other options, so they're going to trot him out there pretty much every day and see what happens. Expect more of what you've seen: modest AVG, good pop, and maybe a couple of steals thrown in once he gets comfortable (10-15/yr in the minors). He could provide league average production possibly, but if he ever left Seattle I'd be a bit more pleased with his prospects. Dana Eveland - Eveland (typically) struggled with his command yesterday, but he battled his way through seven innings while allowing only three singles to go with teh four walks and four K's. He's been about as good as you can expect a fifth starter to be, keeping the ball down (one HR allowed through 41 IP) and striking out a reasonable number of batters (about 6.5 per 9) so that the excess walks (approx. 4 per 9) aren't killing him. His control has actually been a touch better than this in the minors, so a bit of improvement wouldn't even be out of the question, although I would imagine that a few more hits are going to start falling in to offset that. All in all, he's only been a slight bit better than I expected in the first place, so there's no reason to think he can't continue to be a productive back-end starter. Emil Brown - At age 33, Brown is probably in decline from a pretty low peak to begin with, but he's knocking in a ton of runs for the A's thus far (and at opportune times, to boot) so his stock has been back on the rise. His strikeouts are down substantially so far this year (almost cut in half), so it's understandable that his AVG would be back up to its historical norm. The power is back a bit from last year's precipitous drop, which you'd also expect. All in all, he's basically a replacement-level corner OF bat that's having a bit of luck knocking people in. He was a nice story a few years ago, but the thing about free talent is that it's usually only free for a short period of time, and you need to know when to unload it just like you need to know when to pick it up in the first place. For what the A's needed this year, he is fitting the bill thus far, but I wouldn't be surprised if he weren't starting by year's end, and I'd certainly be surprised if they brought him back for a second year. He isn't worthwhile for fantasy purposes except in the deepest of leagues. Dustin McGowan - McGowan was masterful last night, limiting the White Sox to just three singles and a double over 7 1/3 innings, striking out six in the 1-0 win. Since the aberration in Tampa (seven walks), McGowan has looked terrific in stifling both colors of Sox over the past week, allowing eight hits, one run, and one walk against 11 K's in 14 2/3 innings. His ratios are all virtually identical to last year thus far in 2008 (expect for a slight decline in HR/9), but his ERA, which was higher than you would have expected it to be last year given the peripherals, is down about a run and a half. Somewhere between the two is where expectations should lie, making him a bonafide #2 starter in most formats. tag:www.insiderbaseball.com,2008:/blog//1.712 2008-05-06T14:38:40Z 2008-05-06T14:41:13Z

Scott Podsednik- COL- Hot- Sure, he went 0-for-4 last night and lost 35 points off his batting average to go from .343 to .308, but Podsednik is showing signs of bouncing back from an essentially lost 2007 season. His average...

Paul Sauberer Scott Podsednik- COL- Hot- Sure, he went 0-for-4 last night and lost 35 points off his batting average to go from .343 to .308, but Podsednik is showing signs of bouncing back from an essentially lost 2007 season. His average is fluctuating so much because he only has 39 at bats so far this season, but he has started to get some playing time and is producing. Podsednik is showing off his greatest asset for fantasy league owners stolen base ability, but swiping 6 already in limited appearances. His batting average has not been propped up by luck so far, with a BHIPx of .261 and he has a Batting EYE of 2.00, striking out 4 times and walking 8. This has helped boost Podsednik’s OBP to .438, giving him that many more chances to steal bases. We are dealing with a small sample size here, but the signs are encouraging that he could at least approach his best years when he was an asset in both the average and SB columns. He has been particularly productive at home, where he sports a .348 average and has stolen 5 of his bases. Judicious use of Podsednik in leagues with daily transactions could pay off. Oliver Perez- NYM- Cold- It seems very simple as far as Perez is concerned. When he can hold the walks down to a manageable, even though still high, level he has success. When he doesn’t, he’s terrible. Perez is what Daniel Cabrera would be if Cabrera had been able to harness his wildness for long periods of time. This almost makes Perez more frustrating than Cabrera because Perez has turned his potential into reality at times. Combining 2004 and 2007, Perez yielded 160 BBs in 373 IP and had a combined ERA of 3.26. For the rest of his career he has given up 286 BBs in 467 IPs and has an ERA of 5.37. So far, this looks like a year of wildness, which makes Perez a pitcher to avoid. Matt Chico- WAS- Cold- Reading between the lines of statements made by his manager and several of his teammates, it seems as if Chico is having a crisis of confidence. Instead of making, “Matt can turn it around and pitch like he did last year, really, he can” types of comments to the media, maybe they should chip in for a subscription to Fantistics. Then, they could show Chico his player chart and that he has been victimized by bad luck. His .340 BHIPx is likely the driving force behind his slow start and regression to the mean can be expected to help him clear it up. Juan Pierre- LAN- Hot- Pierre has been seeing regular playing time and making it very productive. He went 1-for-3 with a walk, SB and 2 runs scored last night. That gives him a .526 average in the merry month of May, with a .591 OBP and 4 steals as he has played in all 5 games so far. Pierre’s .324 average has not been overly impacted by luck (.259 BHIPx) and he has struck out only 3 times in 71 at bats while drawing 7 walks so his Batting EYE is superb. These combinations are good indicators that he is performing at a consistent level. The lefthanded hitting Pierre is not normally subject that much to a platoon disadvantage, hitting lefties near or better than his mark against righthanders and this season he is showing an extreme reverse platoon split. His mark against southpaws, .476. is far above that against righthanders, .260. Both numbers should start to gravitate toward somewhere between them, so his overall average will probably not be greatly affected when they do. Adam Dunn- CIN- Hot- Dunn hit his 5th homer of the year last night and continues to boost his average, which has risen 30 points (to .222) over his last 7 games. He has gone 8-for-26 in that stretch but the improved hitting has come at the expense of his vaunted Batting EYE. During that same 7 games Dunn has walked only once while striking out 6 times. Taking into account this drop in Batting EYE as well as a BHIPx that has increased from .188 to .207 in a short time and the batting average spike may be a mirage driven by a change in luck. Dunn needs to reclaim his command of the strike zone or he could be in for a rough time. There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning. Members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here. Not a member? Join today. ]]> tag:www.insiderbaseball.com,2008:/blog//1.711 2008-05-06T13:36:14Z 2008-05-06T13:59:44Z

Joe Ribando First Pitch - "Sabermetric Tuesday - The Setup Man"

Good morning and welcome to the Fantasy Week 6 edition of "Sabermetric Tuesdays."  I've had a thought in my head for quite some time, but haven't had a chance to accumulate the stats.  That is, until today.  Just how effective and accurate is the Hold statistic in determining a setup man or middle reliever's value?  Digging through some of the more popular league services around the web, somewhere around 10% of all leagues utilize the Hold as a way of incorporating middle-relief into a quantifiable fantasy measure.  Yet, the metric remains an enigma to most baseball fans outside of a few fantasy circles. 

Before we get into the quantitative analysis, let us revisit the rules of acquiring a Hold.  Last year, I wrote a First Pitch about the obscure stat (you can find it here) and listed the Hold leaders for the year.  In summary, the stat is defined:

"A Hold is credited any time a relief pitcher enters a game in a Save Situation, records at least one out, and leaves the game never having relinquished the lead."

And, as a refresher, a save situation is defined as a pitcher who satisfies at least one of the following conditions:

1. He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning
2. He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, or at bat or on deck
3. He pitches for at least three innings

As I asserted last year, I find it ridiculous that a relief pitcher can enter a game in a blow-out, relinquish a dozen runs, record an 9 outs and earn a Hold.  The same holds true for the "Save," as we evidenced last year in the August 22, 2007 Baltimore/Texas game where Wes Littleton earned a save in a 30-3 game.  What exactly did Littleton save in that game?  Please explain.

Holds Leaders

This analysis begins with a look at the Holds leaders over the past 3 seasons, in aggregate.  I have listed those pitchers and ranked them by the top 50 in cumulative Holds from 2005-2007.  These are the guys that consistently get handed the ball in a setup role.  Of course, some of them have spent brief stints as a team's closer (when the usual closer either gets hurt or becomes ineffective).  But a look at these names on the list shows that they are true middle-relievers who have consistently earned holds over the last 3 years.

Closers have a blown-save category that, when added to saves earned, equates to their total save opportunities.  There is no "blown-Hold" stat and therefore, no total Hold Opportunities measure that is easily defined.  Therefore, I turn to Inherited Runners Scored (IRS) as a measure of middle-relief performance.  IRS is a simple concept = Runners who are already on base when the reliever entered the game later score while that reliever was pitching.  Assuming no fielding errors, this run would be attributed to the ERA of the pitcher who allowed the runner to reach base. 

IRS is a great number but is rarely used in popular analysis.  Afterall, if we can measure power hitters based on their HR/AB rate, closers based on their saves percentage, and starters based on quality starts, we should hold middle relievers accountable for a key part of their job description: the ability to strand inherited runners on base and not allow them to score.

The Analysis

To fully capture the number of runs scored, I added earned runs to IRS to get a blended number of runners allowed to score that are attributable to the reliever's performance.  From there, I took the classic ERA formula of (ER * 9 / INN) and turned it into a reliever adjusted run average (RERA) of [(ER + IRS)*9] / INN.  I performed this exercise simply to give us a better idea of pitcher performance relative to innings pitched and appearances (although I do include those raw numbers below as well).

And now, the list and the results:

A lot of data, but the chart below does show some linearity (even though it is very gradual).  In other words, as we move down the list of 1 to 50, we see, in general, that RERA increases.  A scatter chart below shows this linearity visually:



The Takeaway

While this analysis just scratches the surface it does tend to show that fantasy owners, in general, can use Holds as a decent measure to determine a pitcher's effectiveness in the middle innings.  Even if you don't count Holds and you decide to fill a roster spot or two with middle relievers for WHIP/ERA purposes, Holds can be used as a decent indicator of appearances and pitcher success.  An in-depth regression by a true statistician would need to be performed to truly determine if Holds and RERA are correlated.  Another theory that could be tested would be to see if an increase in RERA by a certain percentage in one season leads to a decrease in holds in subsequent seasons.  In other words, allowing inherited runners to score more often could be a leading indicator of a future decline in accumulated holds and middle-relief effectiveness. 

If nothing else, hopefully this article has you thinking about the forgotten men of baseball - the middle reliever - and their impact on the game.  Perhaps you will decide to go with the hold as a stat for next year's fantasy leagues.  Have a great Tuesday.  --- Joe


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In our continuing series on player recommendations, today we take a look at the pitchers who are deviating from their projected production. Please refer to the Batters article for an explanation of the terms used such as FPI (FPI^ =...

Anthony A. Perri Ryan Dempster is not going to hold the opposition to a .169 batting average this year. This is not to say that Dempster isn't a top 60 pitcher, but his strikeouts per Innings Pitched (.59), indicate that his recent success is not likely sustainable. As a point of reference we consider pitchers with a K/Inning ratio of less than .65 to be a very risky proposition (more on this in the paragraphs below). Balls Hit into Play Success % or BHIP% There have been numerous studies (namely Voros McCracken's article) and rebuttals on the theory that "all balls put into play stand an equal chance based the law of percentages"....in other words, all pitchers stand the same chance of recording an out verses the batter reaching base on balls hit into play based on the average ratio of hits/outs.  Overall, or internal analysis agrees with this observation however when you only consider the top echelon of hurlers, there is a significant correlation which indicates that some pitchers, particularly successful ones, do have influence over balls hit into play. The difference between having a .200 and .300 BHIP% against can mean 3 to 4 extra hits allowed per game. Which could play havoc on the WHIP, ERA, and Win categories. The average BHIP% given up by pitchers is .294 (given up by the top 130 starters). Listed in the analysis will be each pitchers current BHIP% and their 4 year average (if available). Using this single indicator we can determine which pitchers have been "lucky" or "unlucky" to date. Pitchers who have been extremely fortunate on balls placed into play (less than a .230 BHIP%) are : Bedard,E. (.159), Floyd,G., Galarraga,A., Sheets,B., Marcum,S., Dempster,R., Matsuzaka,D., Lee,C., Hill,R., Olsen,S., Santana,J., Redding,T., Cabrera,D., Saunders,J., Danks,J., Peavy,J., Jurrjens,J. (.230). As mentioned above, a regression to the MLB average (.294) or their 4 year average could mean a significant rise in all of the undesirable categories including ERA and WHIP. On the flip side, Pitchers who have been extremely unfortunate in balls placed into play (more than a .335 BHIP%) include: Miller,A. (.450), Hughes,P., Moseley,D., Sampson,C., Morris,M., Sabathia,C., Lincecum,T., Parra,M., Litsch,J., Billingsley,C., Arroyo,B., Tomko,B., Blackburn,N., Moyer,J., Chico,M., Gonzalez,E., Kennedy,I., Jimenez,U., Snell,I. (.336).  Not a coincidence is that many of these pitchers are also pitchers who do not have a high Strikeout ratio, which has increased their susceptibility to poor luck on balls hit into play. One of the key indicators to pitching success in the majors is Strikeouts Per Innings Pitched (K/IP). Very few pitchers are successful with a K/I ratio below .65. The simple logic behind this ratio threshold is that balls put into play stand the chance to create runs while strikeouts obviously do not. High K/I ratios typically indicate that the pitcher has over powering stuff (usually a very good fastball), or in a few cases has masterful command of the strike zone with some type of movement (ala vintage Greg Maddux). We do see pitchers every year who come in with low K/I ratios, but they rarely maintain success consistently year over year. Guys who have low ratios are usually hit or miss in their outings (Quality Starts), and they are also highly reliant on the homeplate umpires (some have wider zones than others). Guys on this list in the include Guthrie,J., Chacon,S., Gabbard,K., Gonzalez,E., Wakefield,T., Maholm,P., Lohse,K., Pelfrey,M., Hendrickson,M., Nolasco,R., Hudson,T., Saunders,J., Perez,Od., Redding,T., Blanton,J., Pineiro,J., Westbrook,J., Moyer,J., Chico,M., Maddux,G., Suppan,J., Buehrle,M., Redman,M., Washburn,J., Wainwright,A., Hernandez,L., Duke,Z., Glavine,T., Marquis,J., Garland,J., Rogers,K., Looper,B., Greinke,Z., Trachsel,S., Backe,B., Bannister,B., Byrd,P., Litsch,J., Wang,C., Jimenez,U., Moseley,D., Sampson,C., Kendrick,K., Silva,C., and Cook,A. Some of these guys can look like a CY Young pitcher during various points of the season, whether it's just in one boxscore or several...but very few string together an entire season of Quality Starts year after year. One of the determinants in my Buy, Sell recommendations is the K/I ratio as compared to my preseason projection. You'll see that some of the under performing pitchers are considerably off in their ratios this early season...which could be an indication that something is wrong...it might just be a dead arm period...or a small sample size of only 5 or 6 starts...regardless it is a concern. Here are a few pitchers whose K/Inning ratio is significantly less than typical so far this year (greater than .25 difference): Olsen,S., Germano,J., Mussina,M., Cabrera,D., Bonderman,J., Carmona,F., Burnett,A., Zito,B., Myers,B., Garza,M., Morales,F., Dempster,R., Garland,J., Duke,Z., and Gabbard,K. Another indicator included in this year's analysis is Expected ERA (XERA) vs Actual ERA. As many of you know, ERA can be a category that does translate perfectly to a pitchers actual production. Those familiar with or player production charts already have a handle on the formula created by researchers Gill and Reeves which approximates the deserved ERA using a series of stats and ratios. Pitchers who are showing an overly inflated ERA (+1.00) in relation to their actual production include:  Morales,F., Dempster,R., Jurrjens,J., Danks,J., Sabathia,C., Sampson,C., Robertson,N., Redman,M., Lilly,T., Hughes,P., Cueto,J., Verlander,J., Gorzelanny,T., Beckett,J., and Kennedy,I. Pitchers who are showing an a better ERA (-1.00) then deserved include: Glavine,T., Moyer,J., Carmona,F., Padilla,V., Gabbard,K., Pelfrey,M., Lincecum,T., Backe,B., Greinke,Z., Lowe,D., Hernandez,L., Rodriguez,W., Marquis,J.,Millwood,K., and Zambrano,C. By looking at our key indicators (which can be found in our Advanced Stats Database you can tell who has reached a peak and who has bottomed out....it's your advantage to know where the players are projected to produce and were they are today. It's difficult to get top dollar on relatively unknown players who are over producing, like Shaun Marcum ...and if you can not, then it makes more sense to keep them than trade them cheaply. However for the over producers who are seasoned, you should be able to get considerable compensation in return. Good pitching is difficult to find, however it's also very volatile. You'll see a sell recommendations on pitchers such as Aaron Cook and Chien-Ming Wang . Both are pitching well above their mean and front runners in the Cy Young race, however neither will likely sustain their current pace. Sure some players will continue on their downward slope and others will continue to rise, but in the end...."regression to the mean" rewards those with patience. With 5 weeks in the books, there are still 20+ to go....happy trading!]]> Register Today]]>