http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/ Fantasy Baseball blog, fantasy baseball draft software, player projections, and everything needed to win your league. en Copyright 2013 Wed, 19 Jun 2013 06:02:58 -0700 http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/ http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Matt Cain-SF- Hot- Cain tossed his third consecutive quality start. His control was superb as 74 of his 110 pitchers were strikes and he struck out 10 batters without issuing a walk. The only downside is that the 2 runs he allowed came from a pair of solo homers. That gives Cain 15 homers allowed in 95 IP. He only gave up 21 homers in 219.1 IP last year. Cain had gone 5 starts without the ball leaving the yard. Lowering his homer rate will be the key to how much success he has for the rest of the season. Michael Cuddyer- COL- Hot- Cuddyer is working on a hitting streak of 16 games, 10 of which have been at Coors Field. Cuddyer's .340 average has been driven by a .375 BABAIP but he has been especially fortunate at home, with a .405 BABIP significantly higher than his road mark of .346. As a result his home batting average is .370 while his road mark is .309. In his first season in Colorado last year, Cuddyer's home/road splits for average and BABIP were not nearly as extreme and he didn't show nearly as much of a pronounced benefit from Coors Field. This season not only is his average much higher but he has hit 7 homers in 100ABs at Coors but only 3 in 97 ABs on the road. Regression to the mean will impact his home average numbers more than the road but he might have adapted more to Coors Field in his power swing so will still produce more homers there. Alex Castellanos- LAN- FYI- Hyun-Jin Ryu might hold the key to whether Castellanos keeps his roster spot with the Dodgers. If Ryu goes deep in the first game of today's doubleheader then there won't be as much of a need for fresh bullpen arms for the second game and Chris Withrow will go down to make room for Chris Capuano. If Ryu doesn't pitch many innings then the Dodgers might need to keep Withrow for both games. Castellanos has played in 3 games in the 8 days since he was added to the roster so the team does have use for him if they can afford to keep him up. Roy Oswalt- COL- Caution- Oswalt will be make his 2013 major league debut with Colorado tomorrow. They signed him to a minor league contract and he has posted a 2.16 ERA with AA Tulsa. Oswalt disappointed last year as he took a similar path with the Rangers. Although his ERAs in his minor league tune-ups last year were a whopping 8.10 in 1 AA start and 5.25 in 3 AAA outings, his FIPs of 2.30 and 3.37, respectively, were lower than the 4.28 mark he had in 5 starts for Tulsa this year. Given his performance last year and the effect good luck has had in his minor league stint this year, it seems like Oswalt's chances of recapturing old glory at Colorado are slim. Zack Wheeler- NYN- Rookie- Pessimists would say there's nowhere to go but down as Wheeler has a 0.00 major league ERA after his debut yesterday. He showed the power that made him a top prospect by striking out 7 in 6 IP and allowing only 4 hits. Wheeler did have some control issues, throwing only 55 of his 102 pitches for strikes and issuing 5 walks. Wheeler had a 3.54 BB/9 at AAA this year so there may be some wildness at times, but the 9.57 K/9 for AAA Las Vegas makes Wheeler an asset right now. Wheeler and Matt Harvey give the Mets a formidable top of their rotation. ]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/nl_player_notes-_june_19th_2013.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/nl_player_notes-_june_19th_2013.html Player Commentary Wed, 19 Jun 2013 06:02:58 -0700 Wil Myers -- Wil Myers made his MLB debut last night, played both games of a double-header against Boston, and went just 1-for-7 between the two games. While Myers makes almost everyone's top 10 prospect lists, there are some who caution that he doesn't have the superstar stealing of other top prospects like Jurickson Profar. Myers is said to have a good hit tool but currently strikes out a bit too much to really help in batting average, but he does have 25-HR potential and could contribute a handful of steals. He batted sixth in both games today, so expectations should be kept in check, particularly in mixed leagues, where his value may be minimal.

Tom Wilhelmsen -- Tom Wilhelmsen was brought into a one-run game in the eighth last night and immediately allowed a lead-off homer to Albert Pujols. He got five outs after that but did need Charlie Furbush to convert the final out of the ninth with two runners on. The outing won't bring Wilhelmsen any closer to regaining the closer's role.

Yoervis Medina -- After Tom Wilhelmsen's eighth-inning blown save that sent the game into extra innings, Yoervis Medina was the one to collect the save in last night's contest. With Oliver Perez working the seventh, Medina may have been manager Eric Wedge's choice for a traditional ninth-inning save opportunity. He throws 95 mph with a slider that can miss bats, but he has relatively severe control issues--worse than those of Wilhelmsen. He needs to be owned right now since he may be the favorite for saves, but proceed with caution.

Jeremy Bonderman -- With a six-inning, one-run performance last night, Jeremy Bonderman somehow finds himself with a 3.28 ERA through his first four starts this year--also his first four since 2010. Don't be fooled, though; his K/BB last night was 0/3, which is reflective of both his skills and of his four starts this year. His BB/9 is a good 2.6, but seeing as how it nearly matches his 2.9 K/9, it's much less impressive. Bonderman is an implosion waiting to happen. It wouldn't surprise to see him tank his next three or four starts and be booted from the rotation entirely. Even AL-only leaguers would have to be desperate to consider starting him. It's like how they tell you not to drink ocean water if you're lost at sea; you may do it anyway, but you know that nothing good will come of it.

Jordan Lyles -- Jordan Lyles picked up an impressive win against Milwaukee last night, going seven strong innings while allowing just one run on 5 K and 0 BB. He's quietly putting together a very nice 2013 campaign with a 7.1 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 51% GB%, and 3.77 xFIP. His park and supporting cast won't help him any, but it may be safe to use him on days when he has very good match-ups in medium-depth mixed leagues without innings caps.

]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/al_daily_notes_-_june_19th_2013.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/al_daily_notes_-_june_19th_2013.html Player Commentary Wed, 19 Jun 2013 00:56:56 -0700 Nick Franklin - Franklin hit his third homer of the year yesterday, and he's now hitting 299/382/522 in his first 20 games with Seattle. He has continued his impressive improvement in contact rate as he has moved to the majors, and at just 22 years of age I'm a bit more bullish on him than many folks it seems. He has some speed, enough to steal double-digit bases, and a bit of power that seems to be maturing quickly. If this contact rate improvement proves lasting, he could end up providing significant value at 2B the rest of the way. I believe him to be worth a spot in nearly all formats at present. Howie Kendrick - Kendrick stayed hot yesterday, picking up a walk and a double in four trips to the plate to drop his June AVG to .473. Kendrick is hitting line drives at a 30% clip this year and is also posting a career high in HR/FB (although he only hits flyballs 21% of the time), two things that are enabling him to post excellent numbers despite career worsts or near-worsts in chase% and contact rate. Kendrick turns 30 this year, so it's an interesting time for him to suddenly become the batting title contender that was always expected of him, so I'm a bit skeptical that he can maintain this sort of production. Still, Kendrick has been much-maligned over the years for failing to reach his potential, so much so that I believe that he is perpetually a bit undervalued. A 15/10 player that can bat near .300 is very useful, particularly at a reasonably weak position. Jason Castro - Castro is 7-15 with 3 2Bs and 2 HRs over the past four games as that power potential that I mentioned about six weeks ago seems to be manifesting itself. Castro has always provided great LD rates, which have stabilized his AVG in the adequate range despite high K rates, but the continuing increase in power has pushed him into the useful category of the catching position. Castro turns 26 today, and he could prove to be a top-tier #2 catcher for the next few seasons with this increased level of power despite a horrendous supporting cast in Houston. Carlos Carrasco - Carrasco came back from suspension and looked great last night against the Royals, holding them to four hits and a walk over 7 1/3 innings before giving way to Bryan Shaw, who allowed his inherited runner to score and deny Carrasco the victory. Carrasco fanned four in the outing as he continued to show the best velocity of his MLB career, possibly due to the extended TJ rehab this past fall and winter. I continue to believe that there is some potential upside here, and wouldn't mind stashing him away in deeper leagues to see if he can build on last night's excellent outing. Josh Johnson - Johnson has been solid since coming off the DL at the beginning of the month despite a difficult schedule, and he was definitely at his best last night against the Rockies, shutting them out over 7 1/3 innings on five hits and two walks while striking out ten. Johnson's K rate is back up near his 2010 peak thus far this year, and while the control issues are a bit troublesome, there's still plenty of potential here. I think he should be owned in all formats, and I'd still be comfortable starting him and treating him as a solid #4 at worst. http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/al_daily_notes_-_june_18th_2013.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/al_daily_notes_-_june_18th_2013.html Player Commentary Tue, 18 Jun 2013 08:15:54 -0700 Mike Leake - Mike Leake tossed seven innings and gave up 1 ER against the Pirates on Monday and now has a 7-3 record on the season. Leake also owns a 2.64 ERA and 3.76 xFIP. The biggest difference for Leake this season has been that he's inducing a large number of grounders (52% GB%), limiting line drives (24% in 2012 vs. 18% in 2013) and, most importantly, has finally reduced his HRs allowed. Leake's got a 9% HR/FB rate this season compared to a career 14% mark - up until 2013, he had simply been giving up too many HRs. This year, he's given up just seven in 88 2/3 innings and has the ERA to show for it. Leake's also made a slight improvement in his strikeout % (17%), but still doesn't miss as many bats as you'd like to see. Considering his past struggles with HRs, I'm not quite convinced Leake has turned the corner because of such a small sample, but he's definitely taken a big step forward for his career in 2013. He can be a back end starter in deeper leagues for now. Francisco Lirano - Francisco Liriano faced a tough opponent in the Reds on Monday and gave up 2 ER over six innings. He struck out six and walked two. Liriano entered yesterday's outing with a 2.78 xFIP and 2.36 ERA. He has been striking out more than 10 batters per game while walking fewer than four and had not allowed a HR until giving up two bombs Monday. Considering Liriano owned a 13% HR/FB rate in 2012, expect the lefty to experience some regression in this area moving forward. That said, Liriano has done a good job improving his GB rate from 44% in 2012 to 49% this season. Maintaining this improvement will be critical in determining whether Liriano can continue to pitch so well. The more grounders he gets, the fewer chances for HRs. Opposing hitters are making good contact off Liriano (24% LD rate), but his GB/FB rate was 2.36 entering Monday's start compared to 1.26 last season. We're going to see regression here, but Liriano is also doing a lot of things well to date. Ryan Howard - Ryan Howard had a huge game against the Nationals on Monday, belting his 8th HR of the season and collecting three hits. Howard now has his SLG% up to .460 and ISO up to .186 - both respectable marks although far from what the slugger produced during his heyday. Howard posted HR/FB rates of 28%, 22% and 21% the past three seasons, but owned just a 12% mark entering last night. His whiff rate remains high at around 30% and he's not walking much anymore as evidenced by his 8% walk rate. And, while Howard does own a .323 career BABIP, he's enjoying a .358 mark this season so I expect some regression in his .274 batting average in the coming weeks. At this point in his career, Howard is a backup fantasy first baseman except in deep NL-only leagues, although he can still occasionally show some pop like he did Monday. Jacob Turner - Jacob Turner made his fourth start of the season on Monday against the Diamondbacks and allowed 2 ER over five innings to go along with five strikeouts and three walks. In 55 innings last year, Turner owned a 4.42 ERA, 4.34 xFIP and K/9 of 5.89. Like many young pitchers he struggled with the long ball, giving up almost 1.5 per game. He also enjoyed a low BABIP of .241. This season, Turner is striking out about the same number of batters per game while walking a few more. However, he's also improved his GB rate to 55% and has given up just one homer in 25 innings. We're talking about a very small sample size, so it's hard to gauge if Turner's slight improvement is sustainable. For now, he's a risky option even in daily and deep leagues, but is worth watching in keeper/dynasty formats. Dan Haren - Dan Haren had a so-so outing against the Phillies on Monday, yielding 4 ER over six innings with three strikeouts and three walks. The right hander's ERA sits at 5.72 in 78 2/3 innings this season. Haren's strikeout % has fallen for a fourth straight year, down to 18% entering last night's start. He's posting a career-high HR/FB rate of 16%, which ends up being more than two long balls per game. The one bright spot is that Haren has shown good control with just 13 walks all season and his 4.21 FIP is much more respectable than his ERA, indicating he could experience positive regression in the coming starts. That said, there's not a whole lot to like here and Haren's a risky option, even in deep NL-only leagues. For fantasy baseball advice and info, follow me on Twitter.]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/nl_player_notes_-_june_18_2013.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/nl_player_notes_-_june_18_2013.html Player Commentary Mon, 17 Jun 2013 21:09:32 -0700 Corey Kluber (SP - CLE): I noted a few weeks ago on Twitter that I thought Corey Kluber had really turned a corner for the Indians. He seemed to be trusting his breaking ball more against LHB's and was finding a more consistent way to get them out than he ever had in the past. Sure enough Kluber's next outing after I made the call on Twitter was @NYY and he got touched up with a few HR's. Still he managed to post a solid 8:1 K:BB ratio even when getting roughed up, which continued a trend we've seen all season. Kluber has shown legitimate growth in his K Rate and his BB Rate this year and its now to the point that fantasy owners have to take notice. Kluber is striking out over 24% of the batters he's facing and walking under 5%. Here is the list of SP's that currently fit that criteria: Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and Adam Wainwright. That is the ENTIRE list. Now Kluber does give up a lot of hard hit balls. He surrenders a LD Rate above 24%, which is in-line with his career rate, and he possesses a career HR/FB Rate (13%) that is a bit elevated above the league average. Even in this great season he's putting together the elevated LD and HR/FB Rates have stayed. As a result it's entirely possible Kluber never lives up to his current 2.95 xFIP, but let's be real; he doesn't have to live up to the 2.95 xFIP to have fantasy value. If he posts a sub-3.75 ERA with a 9.0 K/9, he's a legit starter for fantasy owners. I understand those questioning Kluber because there is little pedigree here. As a minor leaguer he owns a career 4.42 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, but his biggest issue in the minors was poor command and in half his starts this year he's walked 0 batters. In 75% of his starts this year he's walked 1 or less. At some point we have to take the improvement in command as a legitimate improvement and evaluate him as a changed man. He should be owned in all formats and I'm confidently deploying him against MIN this week. Adam Lind (1B - TOR): I noted back in April that there were some pretty crazy changes going on in Adam Lind's approach that eventually would result in a much different batting average and perhaps more overall fantasy value. I called him a strong buy-low candidate on April 29th for those in deep leagues and if you did pick-up Lind then you've certainly reaped the rewards. He's still tottering on traditional mixed league relevance because of a platoon role that is limiting his counting stats, but in recent weeks he's seen more time against the lefties. On Sunday he drew the start against Derek Holland and held his own in the AB's vs. the lefty singling twice. If Lind can continue to grow his playing time against LHP the counting totals should climb towards a 75+ R/RBI pace which along with a 20 HR pace and an improvement in his plate discipline that makes a .280 batting average very legitimate; he's got the opportunity to be a very nice Adam LaRoche type CI. All of Lind's improvements this year stem from a more disciplined approach at the plate that has a higher percentage of his swings coming at strikes and consequently a higher BB Rate and more hard contact. We've reached stabilizing points in all of the indicators which suggests it merits some predictive value for his rest of season performance. Back in April I called Lind a nice buy-low for deep leaguers and now I think he's a viable long-term asset for those in traditional formats as well. I expect the playing time to pick up against LHP allowing those counting category numbers to build. Josh Reddick (OF - OAK): Reddick had his first truly big game since returning from the DL as he went 4-5, falling a 2B short of the cycle in the A's 10-2 win over the Mariners. Reddick has demonstrated a really nice EYE since returning from the DL (5 BB, 5 K in 55 AB) and on the season he's actually shown improvement in his BB Rate and his K Rate over last year. The big problem for Reddick is he hasn't carried over the immense power he demonstrated last year when he posted a .221 ISO. The big day on Sunday pushed his ISO up to .129 which is still a far cry from last year. A look at Reddick's batted ball data explains some of the power drop. Reddick is hitting 42.5% of his batted balls as fly balls which is actually DOWN from his career average of 47.5%. Reddick's high FB rate prevents him from contributing much in the batting average category and makes him very dependent on the HR's for fantasy value. When he sees 14% of them leave the yard and he knocks out 30 HR's he has fantasy value, but they fly out closer to his career 10.7% HR/FB Rate, the results are more mediocre. He ends up as a 20-25 HR player with a batting average that hurts and just adequate run/rbi production. Reddick has tried to make up the difference this year by running a bit more and that will help for deep leaguers, but those in traditional mixed leagues need Reddick to become a staple in the middle of the A's lineup to hold value. He hit 7th on Sunday. Jered Weaver (SP - LAA): Weaver battled some uncharacteristic command issues on Sunday, which coupled with a fly-ball leaving the yard at the wrong time made for a tough day. Weaver walked 4 and surrendered a 3-run HR to Travis Hafner early in the game which left him chasing things up-hill. According to BrooksBaseball Weaver's avg FB velocity for the start was 88.4 mph which is a good sign for Weaver whose average FB velocity this year has sat in the 86 mph range. Weaver also generated an immense 18 swinging strikes on his 103 pitches which continues a trend this year that despite decreased velocity Weaver is generating enough swings and misses to potentially see a jump back up in his K Rate. His current swinging strike rate is in-line with the 2010 season in which he struck out over 25% of the batters he faced. Add in the fact that Weaver is generating a tremendous amount of infield fly-balls and there is actually a lot to like about Weaver's potential to finish strong. Weaver has always been able to out-perform his FIP and xFIP thanks to high infield fly-ball rates and low HR/FB Rates, while his current 4.22 FIP is the worst of his career it's largely due to yesterday's poor outing. I don't think Weaver will challenge a sub-3 ERA as he has the last three years, but I do think the ERA trends to sub-3.50 as he continues to best the FIP/xFIP metrics through high infield fly ball rates and low HR/FB. The question going forward is whether the K Rate rebounds enough to make him a legit #2 fantasy starter. We'll need a bit more data to evaluate, but the early indicators on the swinging strike rate are encouraging. I'd call Weaver a solid buy-low candidate even if I don't consider him a fantasy ace. Carter Capps (RP - SEA): The Mariners have indicated they're giving Tom Wilhelmsen a slight break from the closer's role given his recent struggles. The Mariners are likely to go by committee but the "closer of the future" tag has been placed on Carter Capps ever since the spring. Capps had his first appearance (in a low pressure situation) since Wilhelmsen's demotion and he "responded" by serving up 2 solo HR's and allowing those 2 ER's in his one inning of work. The outing was indicative of Capps one big weakness which is the long-ball. He's served up 2.17 HR/9 on the year despite posting a 10.86 K/9 and just 2.17 BB/9. While he has big-time velocity (95.3 mph avg FB) his fastball is pretty straight and he really relies on a wipe-out slider to miss bats. His minor league track record indicates there isn't much reason for worry around the HR's and pitching in SAFECO you'd think those issues would be mitigated some. Relievers are almost always dealing in small samples, so the most likely result is that the HR-prone tendencies early on this year will regress over time. From a skills perspective, Capps is pretty clearly the most talented/healthy reliever in the Mariners pen and the biggest threat long-term to Wilhelmsen's role. Wilhelmsen's drop-off this year is a bit confounding given so much of it has come from his K Rate despite seeing a limited drop-off in his swinging strike rate and his chase rate. Time will tell whether Wilhelmsen can resurrect his value and reclaim the closer's role but Capps has multiple outs to procuring the role this year. If Wilhelmsen struggles an opening is created but if he pitches well enough to rebuild his trade value, Capps could see saves as well. He's a fine hand-cuff option for Wilhelmsen owners and a nice speculative target for those chasing saves. Follow us on Twitter all year: @Fantistics and @drewdinkmeyer]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/al_daily_notes_-_june_17th_2013.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/al_daily_notes_-_june_17th_2013.html Player Commentary Mon, 17 Jun 2013 07:01:45 -0700 Anthony Rendon- WAS- Hot- Rendon went 3-for-4 yesterday to bring his average up to .361. Underlying that is a .447 BABIP, so expect some negative regression in that department. Power should increase, though. Rendon had 6 homers in 152 PAs at AA this year and only 1 so far in 68 PAs at the major league level. His LD% of 45.8% helps explain both his high BABIP and lack of homers. Expect his FB% of 31.3% to go up and more balls to leave the park. Carlos Beltran- STL- Hot- Beltran's hitting streak may have ended at 14 games with his 0-for-4 yesterday, but he is still 24-for-69 with 6 homers in his last 15 games. He is already more than halfway to 30 homers for the season and his .306 average isn't outrageous given a .317 BABIP. The main danger sign for Beltran is a drop in his Batting EYE from .52 last year to .27. That is mainly due to his walk rate, which is usually in the double digits, being only 4.7% this year. His ISO, LD%, FB% and HR/FB ratios are all comparable to last year. It looks like Beltran has a good chance to sustain this level of performance. Barry Zito- SF- Stats- Evidently someone needs to get the Giants' official website a subscription to Fantistics. The "unexplainable" extreme home/road splits for Zito can be seen as the product of luck. Since we last went over this almost two weeks ago the difference in his home and road ERAs has widened (1.94/11.28) due to an unlucky road start that actually has his road FIP (3.73) lower than his home FIP (3.81.) Currently Zito has more than twice as many IP at home as on the road so his overall numbers aren't as horrible as they could be. Regression to the mean will give a net boost to him as the season progresses. Neil Walker- PIT- Stats- Walker has a point about his batting average from the right side being likely to rise. His BABIP is only .216 as a righthander, compared to .327 from the left side. He had similar bad luck as a righthander last year. His first two seasons spending significant time as a major leaguer his splits weren't that extreme. Walker's assertion about his power coming around is less likely. Since the beginning of 2011 Walker has hit 1 homer as a righthander in 358 PAs. There isn't any evidence that Walker's power from the right side increases as his average does. Jean Segura- MIL- FYI- I've been to Miller Park 4 times so far this year and Segura continues to impress me. The main component of his game that stands out when watching him is his speed. That means that his .343 BABIP might not be a regression to the mean waiting to happen. Segura has 23 infield hits already as well as 19 steals. Speed will sustain his batting average and add in his 10 homers and there is a 20/20 candidate at SS. That Is a valuable commodity.]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/nl_player_notes-_june_17th_2013.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/nl_player_notes-_june_17th_2013.html Player Commentary Mon, 17 Jun 2013 06:57:02 -0700 Elvis Andrus, SS TEX Andrus went 0-for-5 Saturday against Toronto and is 17-for-95 (.179) with a 17.4 percent strikeout rate over his last 24 games. Andrus' flyball rate is down this season, which is a positive for a player with no power, but he's hitting just .073 (3-for-41) on flyballs this year compared to .208 on flyballs in 2012. He also has lined out 19 times on 46 line drives this season, a .587 average. You have to figure he'll start finding some more real estate eventually. Colby Rasmus, OF TOR Rasmus' strikeout rate has increased from 23.8 percent in 2012 to 32.1 percent this season, but so has his batting average, from .223 to .250. The major difference has been his BABIP, which has risen to .259 to .336 even though his line-drive rate is identical to last year. Rasmus has been extremely lucky on groundballs, going 17-for-47 (.361) on them compared to 32-for-155 (.206) last season. That won't continue. While the outfielder has nice power (12 HR, 17.4% HR/FB), he's just not a .250 hitter or anything close to it. Adam Dunn, DH CHW Dunn homered for the fifth time in his last six games Saturday against the Astros, giving him 18 on the year. Dunn's still hitting just .182, but that has come with a .177 BABIP. The DH's line-drive rate is a subpar 16.9 percent, but he has a 49 percent flyball rate and a 25.7 percent flyball rate. Where Dunn has struggled this season is on groundballs - he has just four hits on 48 grounders this year, a .085 average. Fantasy owners can count on him finding more holes as the season goes on. In the meantime, at least his power is still there unlike 2011, when he hit .159 with 11 homers. Trevor Plouffe, 3B MIN Plouffe returned from the DL Saturday for his first game since May 21 and went 3-for-3 with a homer and three RBI. The third baseman initially was placed on the 7-day DL with a concussion, but when he was ready to come back from that he suffered a strained left calf. Plouffe's batted ball distribution, which includes a 29.7 percent line-drive rate, suggests he should have a much higher batting average than .270. Even with that type of line-drive output, the third baseman has a .299 BABIP. Jon Lester, LHP BOS Lester was 6-0 with a 2.72 ERA after his first nine starts this season, but he has gone 0-3 with a 6.90 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP over his last five. Seeing a fluctuation in BABIP after getting a .246 BABIP in his first nine starts is one thing, but Lester has walked 5.4 batters per nine innings and allowed 1.8 HR/9 over his last 30 innings. Lester's swing-and-miss rate is at a career-low 7.1 percent, and he has a 90 percent contact rate on pitches in the strike zone for the second straight season. If Lester doesn't get things turned around Sunday against the Orioles, a team he has gone 14-1 with a 2.63 ERA against in 21 career starts, it's time to panic. There are over 100 players covered each day in the member area, if you're not already a subscriber, join us today!]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/al_daily_notes_-_june_16_2013.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/al_daily_notes_-_june_16_2013.html Player Commentary Sun, 16 Jun 2013 05:57:25 -0700 Kenley Jansen -- Jansen blew his second save of the season last night and his first since being named the team's closer earlier this week. While this will hardly cost him the role, Brandon League did wind up taking the save in the 11th inning. Jansen is supremely talented--there may only be a handful of better relievers in all of baseball--so this should just be a hiccup. If he struggles or gets unlucky a couple more times, though, that job security could come into question.

Anthony Rendon -- After struggling during his first call-up this year, Anthony Rendon has been scorching hot since being recalled to be the team's regular second baseman. He went 3-for-5 last night, belting his first ever big league homer and raising his post-callup average to .406. Perhaps more noteworthy is that he batted second in the order for the first time this year. If that becomes a regular thing and he keeps hitting, he could have value in nearly all leagues given his second-base eligibility.

Huston Street -- In his first game back from the Disabled List, Huston Street converted his 12th save of the year last night, although it came along with two hits and a run. Street is firmly entrenched as the team's closer, although his peripherals this year are a bit worrisome: 5.8 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 4.96 xFIP. Those numbers will improve, but I wouldn't consider Street a top-15 closing option anymore until he shows signs of a rebound.

B.J. Upton -- I can't tell you how many readers I've had to talk off ledges when it comes to B.J. Upton this year. Yes, he's been absolutely abysmal, but he's not this bad. He's going to get better. And last night might be the start of that; Upton went 2-for-4 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3 R, and 1 SB. I said to avoid Upton on draft day given his price; now I'm advising you to acquire him. He's better than he's been playing and is likely worth more than you can acquire him for--in many leagues he's even free with fed-up owners dropping him.

D.J. LeMahieu -- LeMahieu is easy to overlook. He's never done much at the big league level, has almost no power to speak of, and doesn't overwhelm with the batting average. He started the year in the minors but has been quietly effective since taking over second base for Josh Rutledge in Colorado. Last night he swiped his eighth base of the year and is quietly becoming a moderate stolen base threat under new manager Walt Weiss. He's not great, and he could get pushed to the bench or Triple-A once Troy Tulowitzki returns if Rutledge manages to hit this time around, but in the meantime he's worth considering in deep leagues for some cheap steals and a solid average.

]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/nl_daily_notes_-_june_16_2013.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/nl_daily_notes_-_june_16_2013.html Player Commentary Sun, 16 Jun 2013 02:36:50 -0700 Jeff Locke, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates: Hot Pitcher Locke continued his string of good starts yesterday, tossing seven scoreless in Pittsburgh's 3-0 victory over Los Angeles. The win was his 6th of the season and it seemed to come easy to the young right-hander. It also marked his 12th straight start of allowing no more than three earned runs. He hasn't lost a game since April 7th, his first start of 2013. The command may not be there some games, but Locke doesn't give up many hits (58 hits in 82.1 IP), so he makes up for it, resulting in a 1.14 WHIP on the season. Partner that with a 2.19 ERA and you've got yourself a fantasy steal, especially considering Locke was barely drafted in even the deepest of mixed leagues prior to the season. He's owned in just 63 percent of Yahoo! leagues, and it certainly wouldn't hurt to scoop him up with the way he's been hurling the ball. Jose Fernandez, SP, Miami Marlins: Hot Pitcher The Marlins' prized pitcher took the mound last night against St. Louis, and boy did he impress, throwing seven strong innings in Miami's 5-4 win, earning him his fourth win of his rookie campaign. The 20-year old looked poised all night, striking out 10 batters and allowing six hits (five singles, one double, and he has definitely exceeded management's expectations of him, albeit being in the first 15 starts of his career. For some reason, almost a majority of people don't enjoy more than a strikeout per inning and just over a 3.00 ERA because the Cuban defector is owned in just 53 percent of Yahoo! leagues. If Locke and Fernandez are both there, I would probably go with Locke, only because the Pirates actually win games. The Marlins? Not so much. But if you need K's and want a roster filler for the time being, why not go out and get this guy if he's available. He's got electric stuff and when his command is on point, he dominates. All of this and the man can't even enjoy a victory beer... legally at least. Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants: Hot Pitcher Even better than the previous, Bumgarner was lights out last night, blanking the Braves over seven innings of two-hit ball. He struck out 10 and walked one on the way to his sixth win of the year. At just 23-years old, he's still got some improvements to make, including staying consistent, which may be the hardest quality for a pitcher to adapt. Even so, this start can give fantasy owners a collective sigh of relief, because four of Bum's last five starts were NOT impressive (20 earned runs, 27 hits in 29 innings). Atlanta is prone to being shut out because of their uncanny ability to swing and miss at the ball, so I would still monitor his next few performances closely to see if any of his old habits come about. He is a supreme talent, but he hit a miniature rift this past month, and owners want to be reassured that he's still in for a heck of a season. Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds: Clutch Hitter The big fella finished the game in dramatic fashion, blasting a game-winning solo shot off of Burke Badenhop to give the Reds a 4-3 win in 10 innings. The homer was Brucie's 11th of the season, which is a tad lower than what we expected out of him in 2013 (66 HR in last two seasons), but it is still a good number, and Bruce did get off to a pretty slow start. When you start the game out like he did, going 0-for-3 with a walk, the best way to salvage the day is to win a game for your club with a big fly. He is now batting .279 on the season, 21 points higher than his career average, so if that means he sacrifices a little pop to drive in more runs and raise the average, I like what I'm seeing. The Reds are a very potent offense who gets on base a ton (Both votto and Choo have OBP over .420), and considering every guy that hits in front of Bruce has a great OBP, it means more and more chances to drive in runs. Even if the home runs aren't where they were the previous two seasons, we could see a career year out of Bruce in 2013. Eric Stults, SP, San Diego Padres: Waiver Wire Stults' brilliance on the mound continued last night as he threw a complete game two-hitter in front of the home crowd to put the Pads at just a game under .500. He has now given up just five earned runs in his last four starts (31 IP). San Diego has always been kind to pitchers, so it isn't too surprising that Stults is enjoying great success as a starter since joining the Padres, but in a league where innings are counted, he is even more valuable because he has been going deep into games almost every start. I wouldn't expect the ERA to dip much below 3.28, which it's at right now, but regardless Stults holds good value in deeper mixed leagues, and even more value in leagues that have innings pitched as a category (he is ninth in the NL with 90.2 IP). He is owned in just 19 percent of Yahoo! leagues, so if his strengths match your team's weaknesses, add him now, he should be a valuable asset to you for the time being. ]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/nl_roundup_june_15th_2013.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/nl_roundup_june_15th_2013.html Sat, 15 Jun 2013 09:00:00 -0700 Justin Masterson (SP-CLE): Justin Masterson was masterful in a no-decision against the Nationals, striking out 10 and allowing only 1 earned run on 2 hits and 4 walks. The effort moved Masterson into a top-20 starting pitcher on ESPN's player rater, as he has posted a 3.52 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and 102 K's in 102 and 1/3 innings. Is this legit? On the one hand, Masterson has been much more effective against lefties, which was his Achilles heel in previous seasons. They have managed to post a meager .679 OPS against him this season after an .825 last season. He has really tweaked his approach in general, throwing 8% more sliders...opponents are hitting .077 against it with 60 K's in 104 AB's! And he has even gained ½ MPH on his fastball. On the other hand, he has demonstrated an extreme home/road split, with an ERA 3 runs lower at Progressive field than elsewhere. Put it all together and it's mostly legit, but keep an eye on the matchups and how the split progresses in moving forward. Matt Moore (SP-TB): Matt Moore continued to frustrate fantasy owners, allowing 5 earned runs on 7 hits and 4 walks in 5 and 1/3 innings against the Royals. After a stellar April and a solid May, Moore has come unhinged in June by allowing 19 earned runs on 26 hits and 11 walks in 12 and 1/3 innings. While the walks have been a problem, what's even more concerning is the lack of whiffs: his swinging strike rate is down 3.6% from last season, in large part due to the nearly 2 MPH decrease in his velocity. He has shown inconsistencies in the past and an ability to adjust, but perhaps some rest could help him right the ship in the 2nd half (much like it helped David Price last season). I wouldn't drop him, but also wouldn't start him until we see some adjustments. Mike Zunino (C-SEA): Mike Zunino hit his first career homer, a solo shot, to help lead the Marines to victory over the A's. The highly touted prospect is now 2 for 7 with a walk and 2 strikeouts through his first 2 games. Zunino breezed through three levels last season, including a very successful stint at AA where he posted a .333/.386/.588 line with a 5:7 BB:K ratio in 15 games. However, he hit a rough stretch in AAA this season, and before being called up had posted a .238/.303/.503 line with 14:59 BB:K ratio in 47 games in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. The lack of competition in Seattle and his strong defensive/game-calling skills should buy him a long leash, and he could definitely hit double-digit homers the rest of the way. However, I'd temper expectations in seasonable formats and see him as a decent play in all AL-only/2-catcher leagues and deep 1 catcher mixed-leagues. For those in keeper formats, it may take Zunino a few years to put it all together, but he could be a top-5 fantasy catcher down the road. Tom Wilhelmsen (RP-SEA): Eric Wedge told reporters yesterday afternoon he is giving Tom Wilhelmsen a temporary break from closing and would use Oliver Perez and Carter Capps depending on the matchups. True to his word, Wedge turned to Perez, who picked up the save last night. Wilhelmsen had allowed only 1 earned run and had blown only 1 save until May 29th; since then he's allowed 10 earned runs and blown 3. From last season his K-rate is down 8.7% and his BB-rate is up 3.9%, while his line drive rate has spiked 6.1%. The Mariners want him to work on his control/command in lower-leverage situations and it's in their interest for him to close as soon as possible to up his trade value. Wilhelmsen owners are advised to stand pat, as he could easily be back to closing games by the middle of next week. I see Carter Capps as the best short-term handcuff. The mending Stephen Pryor is also a name to keep in mind for the second half. Michael Pineda (SP-NYY): Michael Pineda (shoulder) threw 75 pitches in a simulated inter-squad game in Tampa as he continues to rehab. He allowed 0 earned runs on 3 hits and 1 walk while striking out 5. Pineda was fantastic in his first rehab outing at high-A, going 4 and 1/3 innings (68 pitches) and allowing 0 earned runs on 2 hits and 1 walk while striking out 4. The Yankees are reporting the simulated game was used this time because of the FSL All-Star Game schedule and their desire to keep him on a routine, not because of any setback. Pineda has been hitting in the mid-90s with his fastball and mixing in his secondary offerings while featuring the control/command that made him a desirable commodity to the Yankees and fantasy owners. He could be back in early July and if you have the DL/bench spot, grab him as a high-upside stash. If all the chips fall in the right place, he could be a huge difference maker in the 2nd half as a 4-category contributor. Follow our great team of @fantistics analysts on Twitter and you'll be trending before you know it. There are over 100 players covered each day in the members' area. If you're not already a subscriber, please join us today! http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/al_daily_notes_-_june_15_2013.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/al_daily_notes_-_june_15_2013.html Sat, 15 Jun 2013 03:18:17 -0700 Adam Wainwright, RHP STL Wainwright became the majors' first 10-game winner with a dominant effort against the Mets Thursday afternoon. Wainwright outdueled Matt Harvey by allowing four hits and no runs over seven innings to lower his ERA to 2.18. The right-hander has one more win than he has walks this season, and his FIP is 1.78. Last season, Wainwright had a 3.10 FIP, but he stranded just 67.8 percent of his baserunners and recorded a 3.94 ERA. His strand rate is back up to 76.8 percent this year. Marlon Byrd, OF NYM Byrd had a total of 10 home runs combined in 589 at-bats over the previous two seasons and has only topped 12 homers one time in his career, but the Mets veteran, who was likely one extended slump from being out of baseball at the start of this season, suddenly has 10 homers this year after going deep off Cardinals closer Edward Mujica Thursday. It's hard to truly buy into Byrd's renaissance. He has a career-high 30.1 percent strikeout rate and his line-drive rate is just 14.2 percent. The outfielder has a career-high 46.2 percent flyball rate, and his HR/FB is also a career-high 20.4 percent. Byrd has hit 1,043 flyballs in his career, and his career HR/FB is just 8.8 percent. Starlin Castro, SS CHC Castro's three hits in seven at-bats Thursday were as many as he had in his previous 43 at-bats, and his two steals were one less than he had all season. The shortstop's long slump has his average down to .243. Castro seemingly has taken a step backwards in most categories this season. He's striking out more, isn't hitting for average and is hitting for less power than last year. Castro's groundball rate is nearly identical to last year, but his line-drive rate is down two percentage points and his flyball rate is up two percentage points. That has come with a 4.0 percent HR/FB, down from 8.0 percent last season. Castro is a career .232 hitter on flyballs, but this year he is hitting .173 on them even though he is hitting infield popups less frequently. Matt Cain, RHP SF Cain two-hit the Pirates over 6 2/3 scoreless innings Thursday to lower his ERA to 4.70. The right-hander once again is keeping the ball in the park - this was his fifth straight start in which he hasn't allowed a homer. He gave up 13 over his first nine starts. Cain has never before posted a HR/FB above 8.4 percent, but this year his HR/FB is 13.1 percent. Cain's fastball value is -6.3 runs above average this season, the first time he has been in the red in his career. However, his velocity is virtually the same as it has been since 2010, so his woes are likely related to location issues, a problem he appears to be working out over his last five starts (3.41 ERA). Ben Revere, OF PHI Revere went 4-for-6 with a triple to raise his batting average to .266. The outfielder hit .294 with the Twins last season. So what's different? His strikeout rate is up slightly, but he also has a higher line-drive rate this season, 20.1 percent to 18.6 percent. His groundball rate is above 65 percent for the fourth straight season. The biggest difference from last season is that he's hitting just .209 on grounders this year, compared to .247 in 2012. If he picked up just four more hits on groundballs this year, he'd be batting .247 on grounders and .285 overall. There are over 100 players covered each day in the member area, if you're not already a subscriber, join us today!]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/nl_daily_notes_-_june_14_2013.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/nl_daily_notes_-_june_14_2013.html Player Commentary Fri, 14 Jun 2013 06:28:53 -0700 Hiroki Kuroda (SP-NYY)- Kuroda was fantastic in his outing against Oakland on Friday even though he did not earn a decision. He allowed two runs on two hits and two walks while striking out three in eight innings of work. The right-hander lowered his ERA to 2.78 in the process, and continues to be one of the most consistent pitchers in the American League. His 3.45 FIP and 4.04 xFIP might not be as impressive as one might think, but it is worth noting that his strikeout rate (6.18 K/9) could see some improvement considering his 9.9 percent swinging strike rate. His strand rate (79.3 percent) and BABIP (.249) will see some regression in the second half of the season. However, he should be able to pitch to this type of walk rate for most of the season. I expect him to finish the season with an ERA around 3.30 once again. Chris Davis (1B-BAL)- Davis went 2-for-6 with three strikeouts, two RBI and the game-winning hit to lead the Orioles past the Red Sox in extra innings last night. The first baseman is hitting .338/.417/.688 with 21 home runs in 288 plate appearances. Having an MVP type of season, Davis currently has a wRC+ of 193 along with a .350 ISO and has righted himself after a recent slump. Davis has always had this kind of power (career high 28.4 percent HR/FB rato), but he is hitting more fly balls this season (42.3 percent) and he has managed his strikeout rate. While he does strikeout too often, his 24.5 percent rate is a career low and his 13.5 percent swinging strike rate (also a career low) lets owners know that this has not been a fluke. His overall average is a little inflated because of his .390 BABIP, but that number will not have that much regression considering his career rate of .346. Jeremy Hellickson (SP-TB)- All things were going smoothly for Hellickson owners on Thursday night until the right-hander encountered a rough sixth inning. He was tagged for his third loss of the season after allowing eight runs on 10 hits (no walks) while striking out four in 5.2 innings of work. Unlike past seasons, Hellickson's ERA (5.67) is significantly higher than his FIP (4.20) and xFIP (4.05). He has managed to improve to career bests as a full time starter (6.93 K/9 and 2.00 BB/9), but he has been hurt by an extremely low strand rate (60.6 percent) and higher BABIP (.298). Many have been expecting Hellickson to eventually regress, but he is a better asset than his ERA would lead one to believe. He came into the game with a batted ball profile similar to his career rate, and his strand rate should continue to improve over time. Casey Janssen (RP-TOR)- Janssen recorded his fourteenth save of the season on Thursday night in the Blue Jays win over the Rangers. He threw a shutout inning in which he did not allow a runner to reach base. Janssen's ERA currently sits at 2.49 for the season, and he has been able to maintain a strong strikeout rate (8.72 K/9) even though his average fastball and cutter velocity have dropped in 2013. He has displayed excellent control over the last few seasons, and his 1.25 BB/9 is one of the best among relievers. A 2.59 xFIP indicates that owners should not expect him to regress even with his fortunate .218 BABIP. His 8 percent swinging strike rate is his lowest since 2009, so his strikeout rate might decline somewhat. However, Janssen still remains on the better AL options at the position with his ability to limit walks and home runs. Josh Willingham (LF-MIN)- Willingham went 0-for-3 with a strikeout in the Twins loss to the Phillies on Thursday night. While he does have ten home runs on the season, his slash line dropped to .214/.353/.417 after last night's performance. As expected, Willingham's HR/FB ratio has dropped from his career high in 2012 (21.2 percent) and come back down closer to his career rate (14.3 percent). However, Willingham's problems have correlated with his career low BABIP (.258). This has stemmed from the fact that he has produced a meager 12.7 percent line drive rate (lowest in majors among qualified hitters), and a 24.3 percent infield fly ball rate (second highest in majors). It's actually quite astonishing that his average is not below .200 considering his batted ball profile. Willingham still manages to get on base a lot with his 13.5 percent walk rate, but his average will not improve without some serious adjustments. The good news is that if those adjustments get made, it is likely Willingham improves his HR/FB ratio. ]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/al_player_notes-_june_14th_2013.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/al_player_notes-_june_14th_2013.html Player Commentary Fri, 14 Jun 2013 05:30:46 -0700 Jeff Baker- TEX- FYI- For those of you in 1-game eligibility leagues, Baker added 2B to his list of positions that already included 1B, 3B and OF. He went 0-for-4 last night but is still batting .317 with 9 homers in 82 ABs. Although Baker's overall BABIP is not outrageous at .321 (7 points below his career mark) his home/road splits are extreme at .174/.433. The Rangers are on an extended homestand so there is a chance for positive regression to the mean while Baker is still in the lineup for some injured Rangers. Luke Scott- TB- Cold- Scott has compounded some bad luck with a slip in his selectivity, His BABIP for June is .143, which has brought his overall mark to .250. However he has also drawn only one walk this month and struck out 9 times, including 5 times in his last 3 games. Before this stretch he has walked 15 times and struck out 20. Scott hasn't hit a homer since May 19th so is fantasy value has been low lately. He needs more than simple regression to the mean to pick it up. Jeremy Bonderman- SEA- Hot- Bonderman didn't allow a run in 8 innings of work, giving up 3 hits, walking 2 and striking out 5. He got a no decision when Tom Wilhelmsen blew the save in the 9th. That makes two consecutive quality starts. It's still not enough to make Bonderman a recommended pickup. First, it still leaves him with a 4.94 FIP after 3 starts. Second, it was against the Astros, not exactly the most challenging lineup. Phil Hughes- NYA- Cold- Hughes continued his Jekyll and Hyde season last night by lasting only 4.1 IP in Oakland. He needed 95 pitches to get that far and only 55 of them were strikes. Hughes gave up 3 runs on 4 hits and 5 walks while striking out 3. There doesn't seem to be a pattern to try and figure out which Phil Hughes is going to show up in a given start. He could just as easily implode at home as on the road, against a weak team as against a strong one. Hughes is too inconsistent to hope that you get one of his good starts. Albert Pujols- LAA- Hot- Pujols went 3-for-5with a homer and double yesterday. He is looking older than his 33 years, however. The Orioles announcers commented as he was circling the bases after his blast that he wasn't trying to show up the pitcher with his slow trot, he just can't move that fast. Then Pujols was lifted for a pinch runner in the 9th after his double. Pujols has dealt with some nagging injuries but as Fantistics' Eric Nehs pointed out yesterday there are a lot of bad indicators in Pujols' peripherals. Looking at the last couple of years a rapid decline seems to be happening.]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/al_player_notes-_june_13th_2013.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/al_player_notes-_june_13th_2013.html Player Commentary Thu, 13 Jun 2013 07:01:28 -0700 Ryan Braun -- Ryan Braun, who has been sidelined since leaving Sunday's game with aggravation of a thumb injury he's been dealing with all year, said yesterday that his thumb feels no better. The team hopes he'll be able to rejoin the lineup on Friday, but there's no guarantee of that and a DL stint is possible. Given this and the PED suspension talk, Braun's value is at a major low. I'm not overly concerned about either, so I'd suggest trading for Braun if you can get him for 75 cents on the dollar.

Tyler Colvin -- With Eric Young Jr. being designated for assignment, Tyler Colvin stands to benefit the most. He's started in right field the past two days in place of a sidelined Michael Cuddyer, but even once Cuddyer returns Colvin could still maintain enough value for deep mixed leaguers. EYJ started 50 percent of the team's games, and Colvin has the added benefit of being able to play first base, which has been manned by brittle Todd Helton and not-very-good Jordan Pacheco. There are lots of routes to playing time for Colvin, who is a good hitter with very good power. This is your last chance to buy low on him.

Kevin Slowey -- I've warned before that Kevin Slowey's peripherals are deceiving. Despite an 80% Left On Base Percentage this year (small sample size alert), he is a different (worse) pitcher with runners on base, working too quickly, losing command, and relying heavily on a single pitch. This deficiency reared its ugly head last night, as despite a 6/0 K/BB in 5 IP, Slowey allowed 5 earned runs with a 47% LOB%. I expect his ERA to rest somewhere in the mid-4.00s going forward.

Chris Denorfia -- Denorfia went 1-for-4 with a home run and 2 RBI last night. Because he only plays against lefties, Denorfia is a very overlooked and underappreciated fantasy player. When he's on the field, though, he displays very good skills. Solid power, solid speed, a solid batting average, and a spot leading off is everything you can expect from a player. Because he only plays 30% of the time he's not a candidate to be owned in most mixed leagues with weekly transactions, but in leagues that let you set your lineup daily, Denorfia is an excellent cheap option if you're willing to put the effort in.

Alfredo Figaro -- Figaro hadn't pitched in the majors leagues since 2010 prior to this April, working the last two seasons in Japan. He's been quite good in relief this season for the Brew Crew, posting a 3.47 xFIP out of the pen, and given the team's rotation woes, he's being given a chance as a starter. He was dominant last night against the Marlins, spinning seven shutout innings with four strikeouts and no walks. He has decent stuff and throws hard (95 mph), so while we're dealing with small samples, Figaro is an intriguing option for deep mixed leaguers and NL-only players. He gets Houston next time out, so he should be owned for that start, at the very least.

]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/nl_player_notes-_june_13th_2013.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/nl_player_notes-_june_13th_2013.html Player Commentary Wed, 12 Jun 2013 23:10:18 -0700 Miguel Gonzalez (SP-BAL)- Gonzalez improved his record to 4-2 on Tuesday night after helping the Orioles to a 3-2 win over the Angels. He allowed only one run on four hits and a walk while striking out five in eight innings of work. The right-hander improved his ERA to 3.71, and there is some room for improvement even though his DIPS (4.32 FIP and 4.14 xFIP) might say otherwise. Gonzalez, who is still prone to the home run ball, has managed to improve his ground ball rate to a 45 percent. He has been able to maintain a .267 BABIP with the help of a below average line drive rate (17.4 percent). Even with a favorable BABIP, Gonzalez might be able to maintain this type of ERA considering his above average swinging strike rate (10.1 percent). His splitter gives him a reverse platoon split, so he is best utilized in starts against left-handed heavy lineups. Matt Joyce (OF/DF-TB)- Joyce received a rare start against a left-handed starter and Tuesday night, and went 2-for-3 with a walk, a home run and two RBI to help lead the Rays to a 8-3 win over the Red Sox. The home run was his twelfth of the season, and he improved his slash line to .258/.343/.500 in the process. Joyce continues to have be a steady performer for the Rays, and he has improved his power numbers this season (.242 ISO). There has not been too much of a difference in his success this season. He continues to produce an above average amount of fly balls (46.2 percent), but his HR/FB ratio of 17.4 percent is the second best rate of his career. Joyce usually slows down in the second half of the season, but he should be able to reach a new career high in home runs this season even if his ratio slips a bit. Owners should expect him to finish with a similar slash line. His BABIP should improve (.259), but his strikeout rate (17.4 percent) might also trend upward considering he is still swinging and missing at a 9.3 percent rate. Derek Holland (SP-TEX)- Holland, who is off to the best start of his career, turned in a poor performance on Tuesday against the Indians. He allowed four runs on nine hits and one walk while striking out four in 4.1 innings of work. The left-hander saw his ERA increase to 3.11, but his 2.60 FIP and 3.25 xFIP are still very impressive. Holland has taken the strides he made with his control in 2012 (2.36 BB/9 in 2013), and has paired it with an increase in strikeouts. He came into last night's start with a career best 10.6 percent swinging strike rate, and his strikeout rate of 8.57 K/9 is also a career best. Part of Holland's success has come from the fact he is featuring his slider more than 25 percent of the time, and dropping his fastball usage to a career low 57.7 percent. Paul Konerko (1B/DH-CHW)- Konerko's struggles at the plate continued on Tuesday night as the White Sox lost to the Blue Jays by the score of 7-5 in extra innings. The veteran first baseman went hitless in five plate appearances while drawing a walk and striking out once. Konerko has only hit six home runs this season to go along with his .234/.298/.349 slash line. His 7.8 percent HR/FB ratio is at a career low 7.8 percent, which is significantly down from his career rate of 16.4 percent. I also do not know what to make of his .250 BABIP considering he is hitting the ball hard (27.5 percent line drive rate), and his fly ball rate (43.3 percent) has not been affected by infield fly balls (2.6 percent). His strikeout rate (15.4 percent) is also up a bit, but it should not be affecting his overall line in this way. Owners should be patient, and I would expect Konerko to go on tear soon. Glen Perkins (RP-MIN)- Perkins recorded his fourteenth save of the season last night against the Phillies after throwing a 1-2-3 inning in which he recorded a strikeout. In only his second season in the role, Perkins has been one of the more consistent closers this season. The left-hander has pitched to 2.66 ERA this season, but his FIP (2.10) and xFIP (2.20) have been even better. He has posted a career best 13.31 K/9 with a 14 percent swinging strike rate, and he still has an excellent walk rate (2.28 BB/9). Perkins' fly ball tendencies are one of the few negative aspects of his game so far this season (30 percent ground ball rate), but owners should not take too much stock in that number considering the small sample size. Perkins should see his ground ball rate inch closer to his career rate of 42.3 percent over time. ]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/al_player_notes-_june_12th_2013.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2013/06/al_player_notes-_june_12th_2013.html Player Commentary Wed, 12 Jun 2013 05:42:14 -0700