Fantasy Baseball 2012

Expected ERA winners and Losers from a season ago

Thu, 02 Feb 2012 21:51:49 -0700

Expected ERA (XERA) depicts a pitcher's "True ERA" based on the factors within a pitcher's control. These factors include Hits, Walks, Home Runs allowed and K's. When one considers the inequity with the ERA calculation, specifically related to defense and base runners inherited/left, many including myself consider XERA to be a more precise gauge of ability.

Expected ERA is a term coined by 2 stat researchers (Gill and Reeve), who developed the following mathematical formula ((.575 * H/9 ) + (.94 * HR/9 ) + (.28 * BB/9 ) - (.01 * K/9 ) - Normalizing Factor). The normalizing factor is based on the league (typically in the .270 and .285 range)

The best way to use XERA is to compare it to the actual ERA. Using the delta between the two indicators we can make observations as to whether the pitcher's ERA was a true gauge of his ability for the given period. For example, in 2011 Gavin Floyd posted a 4.37 ERA, yet his expected ERA was .88 points lower. A rebound in 2012 is likely.

Below is a list of the top 20 pitchers from 2011, who had a Higher than expected ERA (a rebound is likely for these pitchers - left column) and those who had a Lower than expected ERA (a regression is likely - right column). The number indicated is the net difference between the pitchers actual and expected ERA.

XERA is one of the many sabermetric indicators that we use to create our Player Projections located in the 2012 Player Projections Draft Software.

Historical Fantasy Baseball Values 5x5

Wed, 11 Jan 2012 14:22:05 -0700

Hi Folks,

Welcome to the start of the 2012 fantasy baseball season! With Pitchers and Catchers reporting in a few short weeks, one of the ways I open a new season is by taking a look back at the previous one. Below is the link to the Historical Fantasy Values and some key indicators from 2011: http://www.insiderbaseball.com/Historical_FB_Values_2012.pdf

NL Player Notes - September 27th

Tue, 27 Sep 2011 07:59:46 -0700

Randall Delgado - Randall Delgado has been adequate in his 7 starts this year for the Braves, posting a 2.83 ERA while managing only 1 quality start with very poor peripherals relative to his minor league totals. Delgado is certainly talented, but the problem here is that the 21 year old has a tremendous amount of competition for a starting spot in Atlanta. Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe are both still under contract next year, while Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Brandon Beachy, Julio Teheran, and Mike Minor are all under club control and likely ahead of Delgado on the depth chart. Delgado has fanned nearly 9 1/2 men per 9 over 92 minor league starts, but he's likely to get a chance to add to that total in 2012. If an opportunity arises for him he is worth a spot next season in most formats, but more likely he's going to have to be rather patient in the minors over the next few seasons as the veterans are slowly culled from the ranks. Jerry Sands - Sands is certainly making his case for 2012, as a single last night extends his hitting streak to 14 games. Sands turns 24 tomorrow and already possesses a career minor league ISO approaching .300, so there's little to be served sending him back to the PCL for more rarified air moonshots...it's time for LA to see what they have. I'd expect Sands to start at either OF or 1B next season, and for him to provide value in most formats as he improves on an inconsistent rookie campaign....his contact rate has been much less of an issue than I expected thus far, which makes me even a bit more optimistic. Jarrod Parker - Jarrod Parker will make his big league debut today, and despite fairly pedestrian numbers in AA this season, the 2007 1st round draftee has frontline stuff and is worth watching if you're able. The D-Backs could conceivably put together a 5-man rotation next year for under $2.5 million, with Kennedy and Hudson fronting for the three young studs Parker, Bauer, and Skaggs. I'm sure that won't come to pass, but Parker's stuff is easily major league caliber, and I'm very curious to see how he pitches next spring when he's a second year removed from TJ surgery. He definitely merits attention in all formats come spring. Bryan LaHair - OF ChN 09-27 LaHair might be doing enough the last few weeks to earn a look come March, as the 28 year old has been playing some first and some OF and hitting to the tune of 309/391/545 through 55 AB's. He's been hitting like this at AAA since 2006, but the Mariners and then the Cubs never saw fit to give him more than 136 MLB AB's over that time. Their offenses must have been too strong. Depending on the Cubs' offseason, LaHair may be able to provide value as a sleeper in many formats next year, but the Cubs could easily try to plug their holes through free agency as well. He's likely 50/50 for being a draftable player in deeper leagues for 2012 at this point. Mat Latos - Latos has been at his best in the month of September, finishing up last night with his 5th quality start in a row, striking out more men than innings pitched and walking only one man also for the 5th straight outing. He actually finished the year with a string of 10 QS in 11 tries, and he really looked 100% after the break this year, whereas he was just not quite himself the first few months of the season. I expect Latos to pitch more like he did in the second half come spring, and he's still one of the top pitchers in baseball despite a slight step backward in overall season stats in 2011.

AL Player Notes - September 27, 2011

Tue, 27 Sep 2011 00:27:41 -0700

Joe Mauer - Joe Mauer didn't play yesterday and isn't playing tonight because, as we all know, he's out with mild pneumonia. However, Mauer will be healthy to start next year (in theory) so one of the big questions heading into 2012 is how much value should you expect from Mauer? I'm bearish on Mauer for a few reasons. First, there are a number of solid catcher options from which to choose so it's no longer Mauer and then a bunch of fourth tier guys. Second, aside from Mauer's 28 HR, 2009 performance, he's connected for double digit HRs just once in his career when he hit 13 in 2006. Do you think he's going to suddenly be able to hit 20 HRs next season while playing half his games at Target Field? Third, the Twins offense is abysmal and likely won't be much better next season, especially if Justin Morneau can't return from his concussion symptoms. Mauer may hit .320 but his RBI and Run totals should remain lower than expected due to not having much help around him. Inevitably, someone in your league is going to overpay for Mauer based on his name and the idea he'll turn into his 2009 version. Don't be that manager. Sean O'Sullivan - I'm pretty certain I've written more about Sean O'Sullivan this season than all other fantasy baseball writers combined. Gotta admit, I'm proud of that. O'Sullivan takes the hill against the Twins today hoping to finish 2011 on a positive note. O'Sullivan threw well in a very small sample size in April (21 IP, 3.43 ERA), but he fell off the wagon in May by posting a 9.10 ERA in 5 starts. In June, O'Sullivan had a sore biceps and upon returning to pitch in AAA, he recorded a 4.22 ERA in 14 starts. For the season, O'Sullivan's strikeout rate is 3.04 and his HR rate is 1.52. Those numbers are almost unfathomably bad. So, yeah, he's not worth a look next season. Trevor Cahill - I am pleased to see Trevor Cahill's ERA at 4.31 entering his last start of the season. Please note that I don't have anything personal against Cahill, but he's a great example of how ERA is dependent on some degree of luck. Last season, Cahill posted a 2.97 ERA and was even considered a Cy Young candidate. However, as many in the sabemetrics community correctly pointed out, Cahill's peripheral numbers weren't nearly as a good as his ERA. He owned a 4.19 FIP, sub-6.00 strikeout rate and a .236 BABIP which indicated Cahill wouldn't be able to maintain an ERA in the low 3.00s in 2011. Sure enough, Cahill's BABIP is up to .304 this season and while he's striking out and walking a few more batters, the rest of Cahill's numbers are right in line with his 2010 season - including his FIP which is exactly the same at 4.19 through 33 starts. Draft him as a Jeanmar Gomez - The Indians' Jeanmar Gomez will make his 10th and final start of 2011 when he faces the Tigers later this evening. Gomez has posted decent ERA (3.52) and FIP (3.75) numbers and has also done a good job of limiting HRs (0.67 HR/9). Gomez has never tallied many strikeouts in the minors so it's no surprise he's whiffing just 4.36 batters per game, which obviously dampens his fantasy value quite a bit. The right hander has overcome the low strikeout rate but owning an excellent 52% GB rate. The Indians will likely give Gomez a chance to win a spot in the rotation out of spring training so he may worth keeping an eye in very deep AL-only leagues. Felipe Paulino - It seems appropriate that I finish my writing for Fantistics this season by talking about Felipe Paulino. I've touted Paulino all year and for a good chunk of time he rewarded me with solid lines that included a bunch of strikeouts. On Monday, Paulino allowed 3 ER over 6 innings while striking out 9. However, the bottom line is: fantasy leagues don't use FIP (Paulino's is 3.70) as a category, they use ERA. And Paulino's 4.46 ERA entering Monday ain't great. That said, I do think he's worth a look in 2012 based on his 8.37 strikeout rate and 0.81 HR rate. He walks a few too many (3.58 walk rate), but he's still just 27 so there's a hope he can continue to show improvement next season. You can probably grab him for next to nothing so take advantage - it's hard to find cheap SPs with strikeout rates in the 8.00s. Thanks to everyone who read my articles throughout the baseball season. I appreciate your interest and look forward to providing more fantasy baseball updates and insight throughout the off-season.

AL Player Notes - September 26th, 2011

Mon, 26 Sep 2011 07:05:39 -0700

Brian Matusz- BAL- Stats- Matusz' record setting (and not in a good way) ERA of 10.69 this season had a huge component of bad luck in it. His BABIP was .382 and his LOB% was 56.4%. Matusz yielded homers like they were going out of style at a pace of 3.26 per 9 IP. His Hr/FB ratio was 19.8% and with a FB% of 50.8% that translated to a lot of homers. Matusz' xFIP (5.24) was less than half of his ERA. His K/9 of 6.89 was respectable and his ERA of 3.46 at AAA indicates that Matusz will rebound substantially in 2012. Pedro Florimon- BAL- Rookie- Florimon picked up his first major league hit yesterday in his 4th game for the Orioles. He is still a raw prospect, hitting .267 with 8 homers and 15 steals at AA Bowie this season. With a K% of 21.9%, he is still too undisciplined to look like a fantasy asset at this stage, even in keeper leagues. Brad Penny- DET- Stats- Penny's biggest problem this season was a loss of control. Only 43.0% of his pitches were within the strike zone. Batters waited on him, with a swinging strike percentage of 4.6%, compared to his career mark of 7.2%. The result was a K/9 of only 3.67, nearly matched by his BB/9 of 3.07%. He was healthy this season and if he can throw strikes he can bounce back. Jacoby Ellsbury- BOS- Hot- Ellsbury's luck was all bad last season, between injuries limiting him to 84 major league PAs and a .217 BABIP dragging his average to .192 with no homers. This season it's just the opposite. His .338 BABP in 717 PAs has helped push his average to .322. After his 3 homers yesterday he has 31 for the year, more than half again as many as he had in his career through last season. Although his 38 steals are lower than his numbers in either of his two other full time years, that is still quite a potent multi-category fantasy contribution Ellsbury is making. With 17 runs and 103 RBI Ellsbury is a great asset across the board. He will be at the top of draft lists in 2012. Derek Holland- TEX- Hot- Holland broke his string of 5 quality starts but it was mainly due to him leaving the game after 5 IP and only 74 pitches. He allowed 3 runs but only 5 hits and a walk while striking out 7. Holland has been much more consistent as the season has wound down, which is a good sign for him heading into 2012. He took the roller coaster to get there, but his final ERA of 3.95 was almost identical to his 3.94 FIP so it is a good gauge of how he pitched on average, even if there were some wild extremes from that average.

AL Player Profiles - September 25th

Sun, 25 Sep 2011 08:14:46 -0700

Jerome Williams - Williams improved to 4-0 in his return to the big leagues after a 4-year hiatus, as he's posted 4 QS in 6 while tallying a 2.95 ERA. His standard rates don't look all that impressive on the surface (2.95 BB/9, 5.91 K/9, 50.8% GB) outside of the solid GB rate, but the big velocity bump and the excellent swinging strike%, contact rate, and chase rate make me think that perhaps there's actually something here. It's a small sample size to be sure and the schedule hasn't been arduous, but there's definitely enough promise here for Williams to be worth a look come spring. It's nearly impossible to do anything other than root for the guy if you know his story, and while the odds are against him a bit as he turns 30 in December, at this point I would certainly make him a late-round choice in deeper mixed leagues and single league formats. Brent Morel - Morel homered again yesterday, and rather quietly has put up this September line: 271/400/671 with 13 R, 19 RBI, 15 BB, and 2 SB. It hasn't been a pretty year for Morel, as his OBP is still under .300 for the season, but the 24 year old has a couple of things going for him that are keeping him (as far as I can tell) an undervalued commodity. First, let's keep in mind Morel's career minor league line of 305/354/464 and the fact that he reached double figures in both homers and steals in 2008 (counting his NCAA stats), 2009, and 2010. Then, we can take a look at his batted ball data this year and see that he's about 40 points below expected on BABIP. Those two data points would lead to fairly severe expectations for improvement in 2012, yet Morel is likely one of the least-discussed regulars in the league. I think he's a very solid sleeper for 2012 in most formats, and a potential .275-15-75 player next season. Leonys Martin - Martin got his first start for the Rangers after being up for almost 4 weeks, and the 23 year old singled, doubled, and scored twice in four trips to the plate in the 7-3 win over Seattle. Martin was excellent in his first pro ball exposure at AA this season but scuffled quite a bit at AAA, so it's tough to tell what we've got here. With 19 steals and 5 triples in less than half a season it's clear that speed is a plus for Martin, but with only 8 XBH in 40 games at AAA, and with a listed build of 6'1", 180, the power is a question mark. Josh Hamilton is under contract for next year and David Murphy and Nelson Cruz are still in their arbitration years, so a starting job might be difficult to come by for Martin, but I doubt they signed him to a 5 yr, $15 MM deal to have him sit around, and none of the aforementioned three are truly center fielders. Martin definitely has a shot to play in 2012....the spring training battle merits watching as he easily could help in the fantasy-critical SB category right out of the gate. He also may play quite a bit these last four games, so those of you battling down to the wire might be able to use him right now as well. Lorenzo Cain - Lorenzo Cain finally got the call to Kansas City after a breakout year at AAA this season, filling in for the ill Alex Gordon for the last two days. Cain was on a 20/20 pace for 162-game schedule this season at Omaha to add to a 312/380/497 line while playing a very solid CF. Unfortunately, the breakout campaigns of Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur have made it difficult for the Royals to justify creating a spot for Cain, and the same thing might potentially prove true next season. Cabrera and Francoeur were both 27 this year while Cain is just 25, and Cain is vastly superior defensively with more upside in the AVG and speed categories, but the whole "devil you know" issue will likely rear its ugly head until Melky reverts back to the first 2650 PA's of his career at the expense of the most recent 700. I think it's likely that the Royals open up with Cain either at AAA or as the 4th OF but that he grabs Melky's spot by June 1 next season...I know that's a pretty specific prediction but I can absolutely see it happening. Cain is a very solid choice for 2012 in deep leagues and AL-only formats if you're willing to be patient, but his value is by no means guaranteed....he could easily end up riding the pine much of next year if the age-27 twins continue their hot hitting. Guillermo Moscoso - Moscoso tossed his 4th quality start in his last five outings last night against LA in a 4-2 loss, going 7 innings and allowing 4 runs, 3 earned. Let's get this out of the way up front so we can talk about something else: Moscoso has been extremely fortunate this year. His FIP ERA is 4.22 despite an actual ERA of 3.38, and a neutral HR/FB rate would push his FIP ERA up to 5.00. I've seen signs the past few months, however, that Moscoso might retain value even post-regression. His control has gone from solid to excellent recently, as he hasn't walked more than two men in nine starts. His K rate has also been improving a bit, as since August 1 he's fanning over 6 per 9. The GB rate is absurdly low, but in his home park it won't be as much of a burden as it is elsewhere (2.42 home ERA vs. 4.70 on the road). All in all, I can envision Moscoso being a useful spot-starter in all formats next year, with a chance of being a viable 4th or 5th starter in many formats with a slight improvement in GB rate. It's easy to just focus on his good fortune this year, but there's a decent pitcher under all that luck as well.

NL Player Notes - September 25, 2011

Sat, 24 Sep 2011 18:59:41 -0700

Jhoulys Chacin - In what will be his last start of the season, Jhoulys Chacin draws the Astros today looking for his 12th win in 2011. In 30 starts, Chacin hasn't been as sharp as he was in 2010 when he posted a 9.04 strikeout rate and 3.54 FIP. This season, Chacin's ERA is up from 3.28 to 3.66 and his FIP is 4.28. Worse for his fantasy owners, Chacin's strikeout rate has fallen by 2 batters per game but his walk rate his increased to 4.14. While Chacin isn't missing as many bats this season, his LD rate has dropped by 6% to 15% and he's improved his GB rate by 10%, which is especially good for a Rockies pitcher. Based off those peripheral numbers, I'd definitely target Chacin as a sleeper in 2012 and expect his strikeout rate to rebound into the high 7.00/low 8.00 range. Josh Collmenter - To Josh Collmenter's credit, he's proven a lot of folks wrong by having such a successful season despite a 32% GB rate and sub-6.00 strikeout rate. Collmenter enters Sunday's start versus the Giants and Tim Lincecum with a 3.42 ERA and 3.69 FIP. He's been able to stay successful thanks to a 1.65 walk rate, 0.92 HR rate and .259 BABIP. It's that low BABIP that makes me doubt Collmenter can replicate his 2011 success in 2012. Collmenter's LD rate is 20% so he's giving up his fair share of well hit balls, but hasn't been hurt as much as you'd expect, especially for a guy who relies on fly outs so much. Collmenter should be on a roster in 12+ team leagues but don't expect him to have a lot of value in fantasy baseball next season. Lance Berkman - The Cardinals first baseman entered Saturday's game hitting .301/.413/.552 with 31 HRs and 91 RBI. Berkman finished 1-for-4 versus the Cubs. Few people saw this type of season coming from Berkman in 2011, who posted just a .166 ISO, .248 BA and .414 SLG% in 2010. However, Berkman's been able to turn things around by hitting more line drives and fewer ground balls. He posted just a 16% line drive rate in 2010, but has upped that figure to 20% this season while also shaving 8% off his 2010 GB rate. Those changes in the types of balls he's putting in play have made a huge difference. Berkman's going to be 36 next season so there's risk in taking him as your starting first baseman. That said, if he can stay healthy, another 30 HRs are definitely in play in 2012. R.A. Dickey - The Mets' knuckleballer faced the Phillies Saturday and tossed 7 innings, allowing 1 ER on 3 hits while striking out 4 and walking 1. Dickey's put together a nice season as he now carries the torch for all knuckleballers with Tim Wakefield at the end of his career. Dickey entered yesterday's start with a 3.35 ERA and 3.81 FIP for this season after recording a 2.84 ERA and 3.65 FIP in 2010. While his strikeout rate isn't going to eclipse 6.00, Dickey has proven for 2 straight seasons that he's a reliable SP in most league formats. He's a nice, cheap option to round out your rotation for next season. Brandon Beachy - The Braves starter struggled against the Nationals on Saturday, allowing 4 ER in 6 innings. He didn't have good control with 4 walks but did rack up 9 strikeouts. Beachy entered the start with a 10.61 strikeout rate along with a 3.58 ERA and 3.23 FIP so he's been an excellent SP this season. The high strikeout totals help offset his low 32% GB rate. Beachy has given up a few more HRs than you'd like, but his 1.06 HR rate isn't terrible. He's never struggled with HRs in the minors so I expect he'll lower that rate with more experience. Considering he just turned 25, Beachy has a serious upside for next season. For fantasy baseball advice, follow me on Twitter.

AL Player Notes - September 24th, 2011

Sat, 24 Sep 2011 07:04:12 -0700

Alfredo Simon- BAL- Hot- Simon allowed 3 run on 6 hits and only 1 walk while striking out 5 in 8 IP last night. For the 4th start in a row he got more ground balls than fly balls. For the 3rd start in a row he walked 2 or fewer batters. If his performance at the very end of the season carries through consistently in Spring Training, Simon will end up with some fantasy value in 2012. Miguel Cabrera- DET- Great Player- Cabrera went 3-for-5 with a homer and knocked in 2 runs to give him 100 RBI on the year. This makes the 8th straight season of 100 or more RBI for Cabrera. He is only 28 and still in the prime of his career despite such a long period of excellent production. Anthony Vasquez- SEA- Cold- Vasquez has showed little since his insertion into the Seattle rotation. He is not striking out many (3.95 K/9), walking too many (3.29 BB/9) and giving up too many homers (3.95/9.) Last night the Rangers tagged him for 3 homers (although one was an inside the park variety) and he has allowed multiple homers in 5 of his 6 starts. Right now Vasquez has no fantasy appeal when looking to 2012. Craig Gentry- TEX- Hot- Gentry got his first major league homer using his most valuable asset, his speed. The homer was an inside the park job as Gentry motored around the bases as his drive went to the wall as Seattle outfielders dove and missed it. Gentry has swiped 18 bases in his 62 games with Texas this year but with the depth of the Texas outfield he is unlikely to get enough playing time in 2012 to have much value. The stolen bases are nice when he pinch runs but that's not enough to justify a spot on your fantasy roster. Brandon Morrow- TOR- Hot- Morrow added a cut fastball to his arsenal of pitches earlier this month and hasn't been afraid to use it. The results have been favorable. He hasn't allowed a run in his last 2 starts, covering 15 IP and has collected 17 Ks while walking 5 in that span. An effective new pitch and the bad luck he experienced this year make Morrow a positive candidate for 2012.

NL Player Notes- September 24th, 2011

Fri, 23 Sep 2011 20:44:07 -0700

Clayton Kershaw (SP--Dodgers) If you were given the task of picking a pitcher, one pitcher, to build your team around not only now but for the future, there might be a pretty heated debate. Names like Strasburg, Verlander and King Felix may be part of the conversation. But Clayton Kershaw, at 23, makes a very compelling case to be that centerpiece. Finishing the year with 20 wins is a rare feat these days and doesn't everyone need a talented left-hander on there team who is still growing and maturing and will probably get better? He pitched over 200 innings for the second year in a row and his 4.57 K/BB shows control and power as he's struck out better than a batter per inning. With a career ERA of 2.88, Kershaw this year as vaulted into elite status as a top tier pitcher for 2012. Emilio Bonifacio (2B, SS, 3B, OF--Marlins) It's a short list of players who have the versatility at as many positions as Emilio Bonifacio. Was anyone really looking at this guy at the start of the year to produce anywhere close to the output he had in 2011? Let's put this into perspective. Bonifacio was seventh in hitting amongst all shortstops with a .289 average and first in stolen bases at 39. Yes, even eclipsing speedsters like Jose Reyes and Elvis Andrus. He was fourth in OBP at .357 and doing all of this at a weak position and as an afterthought. Bonifacio biggest flaw is his wide strike zone as he struck out 120+ times. But he's established himself this year as a solid contributor of speed, which doesn't slump, and hitting. Bonifacio will need to work on some plate discipline to be a true impact player, but his value has already made him one of the attractive shortstops come draft day. Bonifacio certainly won't be one of the first shortstops to go in next year's draft, but he could provide alternative options to Andrus and Jeter. Dee Gordon (SS--Dodgers) If we are looking at strong finishes to the year, a guy who made some waves the last month was the Dodgers' Dee Gordon. Gordon led all N.L. players in batting average going into Friday over the last 30 days with a .384 average. He had had a .418 OBP during that and swiped eleven bases. Overall Gordon is batting .299 with 23 steals and has shown good contact with an 89.2%. With his speed, Gordon is doing a good job of keeping the ball on the group at a rate of 58%. He still has much to learn with plate discipline (EYE at 0.28) but with a little seasoning, he could be an exciting player next year but with little extra base hit potential as his primary value will be tied up in speed. Stephen Strasburg (SP--Nationals) In his final outing of the season Friday, and probably his least effective, Stephen Strasburg threw 75 pitches which represented the most he had thrown in a game this season. His 75 pitches got him through four innings against the Braves, allowing three runs of which two were earned. His control was spot on as he walked no one and struck out three. Despite the mediocre outing, Strasburg will finish with an ERA of 2.00 this season in just 18 innings of work. But probably most impressive is that he hasn't allowed a base on balls in his four starts. Hardly a workhorse season, but who can blame the Nationals for treating their most prized player with a "Handle with Care" approach? Going into next year, while the Nats will be sensitive to every ache and pain Strasburg might have (yes, even including a stuffy nose), the reins will be let out somewhat and we should see some impressive numbers from Strasburg next season. He'll enter 2012 as a pitcher that owners will be targeting near the top of their lists--as he should be. Madison Bumgarner (SP--Giants) There was a point at the very beginning of the year, in April, when I had my doubts about Madison Bumgarner. He was getting knocked around pretty good and looked like your everyday run-of-the-mill minor league call-up who is just doing a spot start before he is back on a bus to Triple-A. But he began to smooth things out and by the All-Star break, he looked about as sharp as some of the best pitchers that throw off a major-league mound. Since the break, Bumgarner compiled an 8-4 record and a .279 ERA in 13 starts. He managed almost a strikeout an inning and allowed just 12 home runs on the entire year. Having logged almost 200 innings, he'll finish the season with an ERA at around 3.32. But more encouraging is that his FIP is about half a run lower at 2.73. With a K/BB at almost 4.00, Bumgarner is a rising talent who shows some serious promise of really taking off in 2012.

AL Player Notes - September 23rd, 2011

Fri, 23 Sep 2011 07:10:14 -0700

Kosuke Fukudome- CLE- Hot- Regression to the mean had been hitting Fukudome, as he went 3-for-26 in the 7 games before last night. That was to be expected as he came to the Indians with a .330 BABIP. He countered the trend last night, going 2-for-4 with a homer and 3 RBI. His BABIP is still at .317, so when looking at him for 2012, figure him for somewhere between this performance for the Cubs and that for the Indians. Blake Beavan- SEA- Hot- Beavan showed off his one skill to good advantage yesterday. For the third straight start and 4th time in his last 5 he walked no one. The control as well as some good luck (.276 BABIP) since he was recalled from the minors has helped keep his ERA and WHIP low. Because he doesn't miss many bats (3.72 K/9) Beavan will be extremely luck dependent. You will be able to find more consistency elsewhere next year. Kyle Seager- SEA- Hot- Seager has a 5-game hitting streak going in which he has hit 7-for-19. He will also be playing games at SS with the injury to Luis Rodriguez. Seager has experienced some regression to the mean, as his average has dropped to .265 as his BABIP has gone down to .321. His Batting EYE is still below his minor league norm. If Seager can increase that next season he could end up contributing in the average an homer categories (he has 9 between the majors and minors this season) at a middle infield position. Anthony Swarzak- MIN- Idea- Swarzak tossed his 3rd quality start in his last 4 outings and there are signs that he might be a better starter than his numbers indicate. In these past 4 starts he has struck out 14 batters in 21.2 IP, a much better ratio than his overall 4.61 K/9. Across all 10 of his starts his K/9 is only 4.71 so the uptick began after he was installed as a member of the rotation. Consistency has been his problem and if that can be remedied with a better defined role, then Swarzak could be a sleeper in 2012. See if he continues this trend in Spring Training and see if you can grab him as a low risk type of pick if he does. B. J. Upton- TB- Hot- Upton has gone 8-for-17 with a double, triple, homer, 4 runs, 3 RBI and a steal in his last 4 games. He has experiencing very good luck this month, with a .469 BABIP driving a .346 average. This regression to the mean has gotten Upton back to where you can expect him to be. It's not a preview of a monster 2012.

NL Player Notes- September 23rd, 2011

Fri, 23 Sep 2011 06:43:23 -0700

Chris Capuano (SP-NYM) Capuano did not earn a decision on Thursday against the Cardinals. He allowed 4 runs on 8 hits, 2 home runs and 2 walks while striking out 4 in 4.2 innings of work. His ERA increased to 4.55, but an xFIP of 3.73 suggests that Capuano might be a nice pickup next season. He posted an above average strikeout rate of 7.95 K/9, and has a swinging strike rate of 10.7 percent. This season he has been hurt mostly by a BABIP of .313 despite having a line drive of 17.3 percent. In fact most of his hits allowed yesterday were on ground balls. However, if he does not stay with the Mets next season, his overall value will decrease. He came into the game with a 3.16 FIP at home and a 4.77 FIP on the road, and he has given up 17 of his 25 home runs on the road.

Jimmy Rollins (SS-PHI) Rollins went hitless with one walk in 4 plate appearances against the Nationals on Thursday. He dropped his slash line to .262/.333/.388 for the season to go along with his 28 stolen bases and 14 home runs. Rollins was able to stay healthier this season, amassing more than 600 plate appearances compared to 397 last season. His .270 BABIP suggests that he should have a higher batting average this season, and that is backed up by his 20.1 percent line drive rate. Rollins still holds above average value for a shortstop next season because of his ability to steal close to 30 bases and his 9 percent walk rate. However, his power numbers have dropped significantly, even from last season. His .126 ISO is his lowest number since 2003. His days of hitting 20 plus home runs are far behind him, and he still has some injury concerns to deal with as he gets older and continues to deal with a demanding position.

Carlos Lee (1B/LF-HOU) Lee went 1-for-2 with a double, a walk, a run scored and 4 RBI against the Rockies yesterday. He improved his slash line to .277/.339/.452 to go along with his 18 home runs and 90 RBI this season. While Lee has still been a productive fantasy player this season, 2011 has continued a trend in which Lee's home run totals have declined in each of the last 5 years. Furthermore, his HR/FB ratio has decreased during the last 3 seasons to a career low 7.9 percent in 2011. Lee will continue to provide close to 100 RBI next season if he remains in his spot in the Astros' lineup, but I expect his home run total to decrease again next season. However, he should be able to produce a similar average and walk rate. Lee has produced a 21.2 percent line drive rate, and he has cut his chase rate from 34.5 percent last season to 27 percent in 2011.

Mark Melancon (RP-HOU) Melancon saved his twentieth game of the season last night against the Rockies. He pitched a 1-2-3 inning with two strikeouts and lowered his ERA to 2.90. He has pitched well in his first season as a closer lowering his xFIP from 3.54 to 3.16 this season. Additionally, he has been pitching well of late producing an xFIP of 1.86 during the month of September. Melancon strikes out a good number of opposing hitters with a strikeout rare of 8.07 K/9, but also has induced hitters to produce a 56.2 percent ground ball rate. Melancon should be entrusted with the role next season even though Brandon Lyon should be available to begin the 2012 season, but with the Astros one can never be too sure, especially when it comes to Brandon Lyon.

Alex White (SP-COL) White's record fell to 3-3 after allowing 5 earned runs to Astros in just 4.2 innings. He walked none, struck out 6 and allowed 6 hits as his overall ERA increased to 7.04. White's ERA has been heavily affected by allowing 14 home runs in just 47.1 innings pitched, which equals the total he allowed in the minors in parts of 3 seasons. That translates to a 22.6 percent HR/FB ratio, and along with a walk rate of 4.85 BB/9 has kept White's ERA above 7.00 this season. I do like White's overall stuff with a fastball that averages above 92 mph, a slider and a hard splitter. It is worth noting that 9 of White's home runs allowed have come at Coors Field, and the young pitcher is adjusting to pitching in the high altitude. He is another pitcher who does not have a rotation spot secure for next season, but that should be on your radar.

AL Player Notes - September 22nd, 2011

Thu, 22 Sep 2011 07:05:08 -0700

Alexei Ramirez- CHA- Hot- Regression to the mean has been Ramirez' friend. He extended his current hitting streak to 8 games and is hitting .321 in September. His .34 monthly BABIP has his season mark up to .289 so there is still room for improvement in the final week of the season. Mark Reynolds- BAL- Hot- Reynolds hit 2 homers and has 4 in his last 4 games. Notably, he only has 1 strikeout in that span. Reynolds is posting the lowest strikeout percentage of his major league career. Sure, it's still 30.7% but it is his lowest. That's a positive sign and if you can risk the potential hit on batting average, which will be highly luck dependent for Reynolds, those homers he provides will come at a discount. Kelvin Herrera - KC- Rookie- Reliever Kelvin Herrera made a less than spectacular major league debut yesterday, losing his first decision and giving up 3 runs and a home in his inning of work. Herrera had never pitched above low A in his first 3 pro seasons but rocketed up the Royals system this year, stopping at high A, AA and AAA before being called up this month. He has been plagued by elbow problems in his career, but his delivery problems might have finally been solved. Herrera recorded 70 Ks in his 67.2 minor league IP. He could challenge for a major league bullpen job next year but still has to show that he has the durability necessary. Neftali Feliz- TEX- Hot- Feliz nailed down another save last night, his 29th of the season. He seems to have gotten a handle on the control issues that plagued him at times this year. He has had more strikes than balls, usually by a wide margin, in every appearance since July 8th. Feliz has walked 11 in 26 IP over that span, but he has only allowed 14 hits and struck out 27 so the damage has been limited. Feliz's role next year is undecided but he should have value whatever it is. C. C. Sabathia- NYA- Great Player- Sabathia did not get the win yesterday in the division clinching nightcap, but he threw a quality start, allowing 2 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6 in 7.1 IP. Sabathia made 127 pitches and has now thrown 110+ pitches in 5 straight starts. That isn't really anything to worry about in the short or long term, though, as his arm seems to be made of rubber. Sabathia should get a shot at his 20th win on Monday as that would still let him start a possible 2 games in each of the potential postseason series.

NL Player Daily Notes - September 22, 2011

Thu, 22 Sep 2011 04:20:10 -0700

NL Quick Pitch: 1. Wandy Rodriguez (SP - Astros) - Wandy gave up a couple of runs early, but settled down and hurled a quality start, going 7.0 IP and allowing 2 ER, 4 H, and 2 BB while recording 4 K's. He got zero run support and ended with the loss. For Wandy, it was his 19th QS out of 29 GS for the season for a total ERA of 3.51 and WHIP of 1.30. I'm a little concerned about Wandy's steadily decreasing K/9 over the last few years. Since 2008, his K/9 has gone from 8.59 to 8.45, 8.22, and currently sitting on 7.99. Its not a huge swing, but I'd rather see in going in the right direction. Wandy was on the trading block this year and at 32 years old and $10 million due to him next year, I wouldn't be surprised to see him land somewhere else. 2. Matt Garza (SP - Cubs) - Matt Garza had a "quiet" year in Chicago, but in reality it was quite impressive. He improved just about every major metric across the board from his time in Tampa Bay, but it gets lost on the bad year with the Cubs. Garza is posting a career best 3.35 ERA, K/9 of 8.9, K/BB of 3.1, and FIP of 3.13 (compared to previous three years of 4.11, 4.11, and 4.44). His WHIP remains extremely steady over the last four seasons of 1.24, 1.26, 1.25, and 1.27 (almost like clock work), but his HR/9 has dropped tremendously from consistently over 1.0 to just 0.66. That's quite a feat moving to the windy confines, but not surprising given his move in GO/AO from 0.74 with the Rays in 2010 to 2011's 1.08. I have a feeling Garza's ADP will be undervalued in 2012. 3. Dee Gordon (SS - Dodgers) - Gordon is having a tremendous September. With another multi-hit game last night (his 10th this month and 5th in the last 6 games), Gordon raised his average to .294 on a shortened season and .373 in September. Even more impressive is his 11 SB this month and 23 on the year in just 194 AB. The 23 year old Gordon is your typical singles-hitter, stolen base threat, but out of the SS position that is just fine. He'll have some growing pains as he's a free swinger (already has 25 K's and just 5 BB's), but if nothing else should be good for big SB numbers in 2012. Big up-arrow. 4. Javier Vazquez (SP - Marlins) - Vazquez was talking about retiring at the end of the season, but given his recent performance he should consider changing his mind. Vazquez hurled 7.0 shutout innings and allowed just 2 hits, 1 BB, and struck out 6 against the Braves on Wednesday. It was his 10th quality start in a row as he continues his tremendous 2nd half run. Since the All-Star break, he has surprisingly been one of the best pitchers in baseball with a 2.16 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, a 7-3 record, and holding opposing batters to just a .196 average. Of course, pre-All Star was more of what we expected out of Vazquez - 5.23 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and struggles ame dominant and looked like his old self. He remains a risky pick on draft day, but his overall numbers may hide his huge 2nd half, so he could be a late round flier. That is, of course, if he doesn't hang up the cleats. 5. Danny Espinosa (2B - Nationals) - With 2B always being a tricky position to draft, Danny Espinosa gives fantasy owners a cheaper option heading into 2012 that could provide some nice upside. Even in his rookie season, Espinosa has hit 21 HR and 14 SB for the Nationals. While the power has been nice, his average is just .238 with a .324 OBP and he strikes out way too much (157 for the season average about once for every 4.0 PA). At a 0.53 FPI, he has room for improvement and its just his rookie season. If you miss out on the top-tier 2B, he's a nice cheap option that could give you some power/speed combo in 2012. Follow us on Twitter all year: @Fantistics and @jribando

AL Player Notes - September 21st, 2011

Wed, 21 Sep 2011 07:06:49 -0700

Rich Harden- OAK- Cold- After registering only 1 K in 5.1 IP in his last start, the 1.0 K/IP ratio last night might seem good. The problem is that he only lasted 3 IP because he was getting hit hard by the Rangers. It was the 3rd straight time Harden hasn't gone more than 5 IP and 4th time in his last 5 outings. Harden has been able to strike a lot of batters out since coming back this season (10.10 K/9), but has a tough time getting them out if he doesn't (1.42 WHIP.) He also has a HR/9 of 1.76 for the second season in a row. The K ratio is attractive but the oft-injured Harden looks like he can't offer much more than that. Adam Dunn- CHW- Stats- Although Dunn didn't get a hit yesterday, he did walk twice and only struck out once, an improvement for him. In his previous 3 games, Dunn had gone 5-for-13 with 3 doubles. This has been a lost season for Dunn who, although he increased his walk rate to 14.7% from 11.9% in 2010, increased his K rate from 30.7% to 35.1% so his Batting EYE only increased from .39 to .42 after being no lower than .58 since becoming a full time player in 2002. Since August 18th Dunn has walked 7 times and struck out 17. With his homer total dropping from 38 to 11, Dunn has little fantasy value going into 2012. Alejandro De Aza- CHA- Hot- De Aza went 3-for-8 with a steal in yesterday's doubleheader. His .326 average since being called up from AAA is the product of a .392 BABIP. He hasn't been able to sustain success at the major league level and is unlikely to do so in 2012. This looks like the high point of his major league career. Mark Trumbo- LAA- Hot- The Rookie of the Year candidate homered for the second straight game (to give him 29 for the season) in a 2-for-5 effort. He is 6-for-16 with 2 homers in his last 4 games. With a .276 BABIP this year, Trumbo's average of .258 will be expected to increase in 2012. That will make him even more valuable as he will provide plenty of homers again. Mike Carp- SEA- Hot- Regression, schmegression. A night after knocking in 5 RBI, Carp picked up 5 hits in 5 ABs, with 2 doubles and another RBI. His monthly BABIP is suddenly at .341. Sure, that's a drop off his season mark of .376 but really can't be said to be regression to the mean any more. It also means that you have to look at his .291 average with a skeptical eye when planning for 2012.

NL Player Notes - September 20th

Tue, 20 Sep 2011 07:57:40 -0700

Cory Luebke - Luebke continued his excellent September run, allowing only a two-run shot to Mark Ellis over 7 innings of work in an 8-2 win in Colorado. Luebke has struck out either 8 or 9 batters in 6 of his last 9 starts, and while he's only posting quality starts a bit over half the time the K rate is more than making up for it. A full season starting in Petco next year, should he maintain a starting slot, would make Luebke a very solid sleeper in just about every format despite the slightly poorer control he has exhibited since mid-August. Wilin Rosario - Rosario is up and playing every day at the expense of Chris Iannetta, and the 22 year old backstop is already showing off his impressive power, knocking 5 of his first 7 hits for extra bases. He's also showing his impatience and inability to make contact, striking out over a third of the time with just two walks through 36 AB's. Rosario has excellent pop, but the Rockies already have a guy with excellent pop that also can take a walk but struggles to make contact in Iannetta, but the Rockies have proven time and again that they will find any excuse to keep Iannetta from playing every day. Rosario is a very solid keeper prospect due to his power at a weak position, but his ceiling is certainly limited by his contact rate and complete lack of speed. Mike Minor - Minor has had eight starts since returning to the Braves at the beginning of August, and he's 4-0 with a 4.03 ERA over that stretch. He's only managed two quality starts out of the eight, but he's fanning over a batter an inning and only walking 2.6 per 9. His high pitch counts and low GB rate are marks against him, but his peripherals are certainly strong enough to expect that he'll start bringing his ERA down into the 3.00's before very long, making him a clear-cut SP option in all formats going forward. Matt Downs - The 27 year old Downs has had a pretty abbreviated career, as he hasn't even picked up 2000 AB's yet in a pro career that stretches back to 2006. After last night's start in RF for Houston, Downs has at least one game at every position but C and P, and there's been some talk about having Downs get some time in behind the plate prior to 2012. Downs has plenty of power and patience, and he's shown some speed in the minors as well, so any more playing time would make him a very intriguing choice in NL-only formats. As it stands right now, he probably doesn't play quite enough to justify a roster spot for fantasy purposes, but he leads the team in SLG and is 4th in HR despite just 186 AB's. Chien-Ming Wang - Yes, it's been against the Mets, Marlins, and Dodgers, but Wang has tossed 17 2/3 innings over his last three starts, walking zero and striking out 12. He's finally starting to resemble the guy that went 46-15 from 2006-2008, and if he looks the same come spring, he'll be a solid sleeper in deeper formats for 2012.