Fantasy Baseball 2012

AL Player Notes - May 17th, 2012

Thu, 17 May 2012 07:03:39 -0700

Rich Thompson- TB- Rise Value- Thompson (not to be confused with the A's relief pitcher of the same name) was acquired by the Rays and made a pinch running appearance yesterday. This was his first major league appearance since 2004. He stole 48 bases for the Phillies' AAA club in 2011 so if he gets a chance to play could provide some help in that category. With the Rays banged up he might get some chances. David Murphy- TEX- Cold- With a lefty starting for the A's Murphy was on the bench. He hasn't thrived lately in his platoon role, going 2-for-11 in his last 4 games. There may be a little regression to the mean happening as Murphy's BABIP is still at .333. He has only stolen 1 base in 108 PAs this season after swiping 11 in 440 PAs last year and 14 in 471 PAs in 2010. With 3 homers his power is about the same, but without the stolen bases his value as a part timer drops. Adrian Gonzalez- BOS- Cold- Gonzalez's hot streak has come to an end as he has gone 0-for-7 with 4 Ks in his last 2 games. Today marks one month since he last homered. His FB% of 39.5% is actually higher than last year's 32.1%. However he has 14 doubles in 168 PAs this year after having 45 doubles in 715 PAs last year and 33 doubles in 693 PAs in 2010. It looks early on like a lot of his fly balls are landing in the gaps instead of going over the fence. Kyle Drabek- TOR- Caution- Drabek continued to have control problems. He needed 113 pitches to get through 7 IP last night mainly because 53 of those pitches were balls. In 7 of his 8 starts he has thrown 14 or fewer more strikes than balls. That is not a good ratio. If he doesn't throw more strikes that will keep leading to high pitch counts which can be very tough on a 24-year-old arm. Felix Hernandez- SEA- Cold- Maybe that missing 3 mph off Hernandez's fastball really does mean something. Or maybe we are just dealing with a small sample size. Hernandez has been participating in the staff-wide trend of Seattle pitchers to excel at home and stink on the road. He has an 0.78 ERA and 0.83 WHIP at Safeco Field and 4.31 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP away from home. Hernandez dug himself a hole early, needing 32 pitches to get through a first inning in which he allowed 4 runs. He didn't seem to be able to snap back after that. It is the second straight non-quality start for him and if he gets beat up again the next time out it is time to start worrying. If Hernandez bounces back then maybe we are dealing with a statistical aberration.

AL Player Spotlight - May 16, 2012

Wed, 16 May 2012 21:21:03 -0700

Jake Peavy (SP - CHW) - Peavy had his roughest outing of the season, allowing six runs on nine hits (two home runs) in 5 1/3 innings against the Tigers, walking two while fanning four. He carried a shutout through five, but proceeded to melt down in the sixth. He is likely headed for a regression as he entered the start with a .234 BABIP and just two home runs surrendered despite a very low 28.7 GB%. Peavy has also averaged only 124 innings a year for the last four seasons as he has been hurt every year, and U.S. Cellular Field is not the optimal spot for a heavy fly ball pitcher. Worth selling high on if you can find a buyer, Peavy takes on the Cubs at Wrigley on Sunday. Ervin Santana (SP - LAA) - Santana was outstanding against the A's, throwing 7 2/3 shutout innings while allowing only four hits, walking three and punching out nine. After only fanning 19 in his first 30 2/3 innings, he has now struck out 20 in the last 23. Most importantly, he did not allow a home run tonight after giving up at least one in six of his first seven outings and 12 in 46 innings before tonight. Santana traditionally gives up his fair share of dingers, but obviously this many so far is an aberration, especially when he's increased his groundball rate 4.5%, which is on the heels of an 8.3% rise last year. Buy low while you can before he regresses to career norms. He has an excellent matchup in San Diego Sunday. Fernando Rodney (RP - TB) - Rodney pitched a perfect ninth for his 11th save and his ERA now stands at a sparkling 0.51. His control has been miles better than his career average and he's increased his strikeout rate five percent to go along with his traditionally excellent groundball rate. Although we are still dealing with smaller sample sizes, his peripherals have been outstanding and he's pitching in front of an excellent defense. The Rays have also gotten career years out of otherwise-mediocre relievers Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit and Kyle Farnsworth among others, so it's possible they've found something in Rodney that other teams could not. Yunel Escobar (SS - TOR) - Escobar took another collar in four at bats, and he's now hitting a meek .242/.291/.307. He has always hit an above-average number of groundballs, but he's taken it to another level this year as they've comprised 65.9% of his balls in play coming into the night. The increased rate has naturally come at the expense of line drives and fly balls, and he should especially be putting more balls in the air at the Rogers Centre. He still should be considered a plus option at home and against left-handed pitching, but the indicators so far are worrisome. Mike Moustakas (3B - KC) - Moustakas hit his fifth home run of the season as part of a 1-2 night with a walk and hit by pitch to raise his season line to .310/.371/.540. The hot start is certainly encouraging, but it doesn't look sustainable when you look at his peripherals. He carried a .345 BABIP into the night despite only a 14.3 LD%, and he has been chasing more pitches out of the strike zone compared to his call-up last season. He's a good option against right-handed pitching, but has been very lucky against southpaws this year (which was his weakness coming up through the minors and last year) and plays in a very tough park for left-handed home runs. Sell high if you can.

NL Player Notes - May 16th, 2012

Wed, 16 May 2012 06:06:02 -0700

Adam Wainwright SP (STL) - Wainwright enters tonight's start in SF as a must start option in all fantasy formats. Despite his 6.16 ERA Wainwright's peripherals are as strong as ever. In fact, his xFIP sits at 2.94. Wainwright's K% is identical to what it was in 2010, and his K/BB ratio is only slightly lower at 3.25 compared to 3.80 in 2010 (2.92 for his career). He is also currently posting a career best 54.5 GB%. Bad luck and adjustments from TJ surgery (velocity is down somewhat) are responsible for a .352 BABIP (career mark of .290) and 25 HR/FB% (career mark of 8.2%) that are heavily skewing Wainwright's ERA upwards. As he moves further along in his recovers and lucky simply goes in his favor, these numbers will revert towards Wainwright's career marks. Given the outstanding peripherals early on, I feel comfortable calling for a sub 3.25 ERA for Wainwright for the rest of the season. Hanley Ramirez SS (FLA) - Ramirez ripped 2 doubles last night and seems to have found the power that has alluded him the past 2 seasons. In fact, his ISO entering play yesterday was .200 - exactly matching his career mark. The key for Ramirez in getting that ISO back up was generating more loft in his swing (something that his injured shoulder may have helped prevent the past 2 years). Ramirez has a GB% of just 41.7% after posting marks above 50% each of the past 2 years (career mark is 44.3%). This makes me confident that the shoulder is healthy and the power is here to stay. From a batting average standpoint, I have to agree with Drew's assessment from a couple of weeks ago that this will turn around and makes Hanley a buy low candidate. Hanley is hitting .221 despite an okay .48 EYE and the solid ISO mentioned previously. His overall batting average isn't being dragged down by a lack of skill but rather by an unlucky singles average. His current singles average is just .176, while his previous 4 year average is .272. Look for this to turn around in the near future with some better luck and an expected increase in LD rate from Hanley. Henry Rodriguez RP (WAS) - Yesterday Nats' Manager Davey Johnson committed to Henry Rodriguez as his current closer despite the young lefty's recent struggles. On the year, Rodriguez has a 4.60 ERA with 8 saves and 3 blown saves. Rodriguez has shown the ability to miss bats by striking out 30% of the batters he has faced, which is very impressive. Unfortunately Rodriguez's skills end there. Opponents are driving the ball well against him as evidenced by a 22.9 LD%, 45.7 FB% and 12.5 HR/FB%. This does not mesh well with Rodriguez's wildness (17.1 BB%, career mark of 14.2%). Given Rodriguez's skill set and Storen potentially coming back in June, I am not overly optimistic about his value rest of season. Troy Tulowtizki SS (COL) - Tulo owners can breathe a slight sigh of relief as X-rays on his left leg came back negative the day after he fouled a ball off of that leg. He was back in the lineup yesterday. Tulo is off to a slow start hitting .262/.333/.397 through 32 games, but this is really nothing new. For his career Tulo has of .747 in March/April and .740 in May. In June Tulo has an .886 OPS and owns an OPS of .900+ in each remaining month, so there is definitely truth to the talk that Tulo is a slow starter. Taking that information into account along with the fact that Tulo has a career best .93 EYE and 90.1% contact rate and you should be buying. Vance Worley SP (PHI) - Perhaps I was more dismissive of Worley's prospects in the preseason than I should have been as I have been pretty impressed early on this year. Worley's K% was impressive for a rookie at 21.5%, but now that number is up to 24.7% - good enough for 18th in the entire Majors amongst qualified pitchers. The increased dominance has not come at the expense of command as Worley is walking 8.2% of batters faced - pretty much identical to last season's 8.3% mark. Further reason for optimism is Worley's increase in GB% from 39.3% to 47.9%. There has to be some concern that this won't last given Worley's below league average marks in LD% (25.6%), chase rate (25.1%) and swinging strike rate (6.3%). Add it all up and you get an odd situation where a player's main skill stats are justifying his surface stats but the underlying indicators don't exactly mesh with those same skill stats. Confusing, huh? I am generally a pretty risk averse owner so if I could get equal value back for Worley in a trade, I would pull the trigger, but I do understand why those who choose to hold will do so. UPDATE: Worley has been scratched from today's start with a sore arm.

NL Daily Notes - May 15th, 2012

Tue, 15 May 2012 07:45:54 -0700

Todd Frazier - Frazier hasn't exactly grabbed the 3B job and run with it, going 1-11 with 6 K's since Scott Rolen made his latest trip to the DL, but there's some potential here (particularly if Dusty stays out of the way with his impending Cairo fetish). Frazier is still just 26 and has an intriguing power/speed combo (21 HR and 18 SB last year), with the requisite contact-related issues that often prevent him from breaking out fully. His LD rates are normally rather high, allowing him to post higher AVG numbers than you'd expect given his penchant for the swing-and-miss. The Reds are playing well enough that hopefully Frazier has a bit of leash here, as I do think that he could surprise if he can hold onto enough PT. He is a solid gamble as an injury fill-in for the next few weeks at a minimum, and from the sound of Rolen's interview last week I'm not so sure he will be back quickly....his shoulder is really bothering him although there isn't a specific acute injury to be blamed this time. Ryan Vogelsong - Vogelsong tossed another quality start yesterday despite another five walks, but the Giants couldn't offer enough support for him until he left the game so he remains at 1-2 on the year. Much of the time that talk about trying to sell a player high we're sort of hoping that you can find someone that doesn't pay enough attention to the underlying stats to get an accurate picture of the player's real value, but with Vogelsong I think you might be able to really sell him at a higher value than you'd expect due to the length of time that he's outperformed his peripherals. The 34 year old did make great strides last year, and he is still a better pitcher now than he was a few years back, but there are so many areas in which he is regressing or has been fortunate here in 2012 that I can't help but think that he's going to struggle significantly at some point this year. I don't expect him to perform at more than a back-end starter's value the rest of the way, but I do expect that if you shop him around you can find someone willing to pay more than that, and that's definitely something that I would advise all of his owners to explore immediately. Jesus Flores - I highlighted Flores back in the spring as someone that could emerge if more playing time arose, and lo and behold it has come to pass. Wilson Ramos is out for the year, and the Nationals decided to bring up Sandy Leon from AA to start the next day. Leon lasted four innings before spraining his ankle, and now he's headed for the DL, so Flores is definitely going to get some time now. It's tough to get a handle on what he might become, as his development time has been wrecked by a combination of the Rule V draft, injuries, and lack of playing time over the past 5 years. He's 27 now, and he's only played over 110 games once in his career: 6 years ago in High-A where he slugged 20 homers and posted a .216 ISO. That's impressive for a 21 year old catcher, and he's had flashes at the big league level as well, causing me to think that he might be a sneaky little reserve to throw on your roster in many formats to see what transpires. I've already put him into my lineup in two deeper leagues that I'm in as I think he'll provide better than average 2nd catcher value over the next few weeks at a minimum, despite the persistent contact issues that will likely weigh on his AVG. Joe Blanton - Blanton had another excellent outing last night, although this one did come against the Astros. Blanton held them to six hits and a run over seven-plus innings, walking one and fanning seven. He's struck out at least six in four straight outings now, which is an area that is generally a weakness of his. His control has been fantastic, and he's sporting the 2nd-best velocity of his entire career. Some severe regression is still expected due to an HR/FB rate that is completely unsustainable, and the BABIP has been a bit fortunate as well, but the addition of some K's to his stat line is enough to bump Blanton up to a bit more than a spot starter. If he is able to maintain this sort of control along with a few additional K's, an ERA in the mid-to-high 3.00's would not be out of the question. I'm cautiously optimistic here after flogging Blanton for years as an overvalued arm. Gregor Blanco - I don't have a clue as to what the Giants are doing, but it looks like Gregor Blanco has emerged as their starting RF for the time being. Blanco is 5-13 with 5 R and a SB (and a HR) in the last three games for the Giants, effectively relegating Nate Schierholtz and Brandon Belt to bench roles, which is pretty much preposterous any way you slice it. Blanco is a solid contact hitter with speed, and could be expected to post a decent AVG and above average SB and R if he continues to play every day, making him a worthwhile add in NL-only leagues and possibly some deeper mixed leagues right now, but in SF there is so much competition (much of it mediocre, but still) for playing time that everyone's job status seems to be temporary, so I wouldn't forego a backup plan if you do go after Blanco. Bryce Harper - Harper finally hit that first MLB homer yesterday in his 15th game, and he has managed a .161 ISO thus far despite an awful chase% and some poor fortune on balls in play. I feel like people were surprised when I came on the Sirius broadcast a month ago and said I didn't think Harper would be all that valuable this year, but let's look back at the last can't miss prospect in his 19-year old season: 232/264/408 in 149 PA's for Alex Rodriguez back in 1995. He was immediately one of the best players in baseball the following season, but there has to be an acclimation period....particularly for a player that really struggled a bit above A-ball as Harper did. I think he will be adequate, and certainly he's one of the top values in keeper formats, but for this season I think there will be quite a few growing pains, and I remain unconvinced that he will stay up with Washington once Werth and Morse return.

AL Player Notes - May 15, 2012

Mon, 14 May 2012 20:51:45 -0700

Ivan Nova - Ivan Nova took on the Fightin' Showalters on Monday and allowed five earned runs on seven hits. He struck out four and walked three. Nova has missed a bunch more bats this season, improving his whiff rate from 5.33 in 2011 to 8.37. He's also increased his strikeout percentage by 8%. However, missing more bats hasn't helped Nova's ERA, which sits at 5.44 after last night's start. The problem is that Nova is yielding far too many HRs (1.88 HR rate) and is dealing with an incredibly high .380 BABIP. Considering his line drive rate (19%), Nova is getting pretty unlucky on his balls in play. As for the HRs, throughout his minor league career, and during his first full major league season, Nova never struggled with the long ball, so I expect him to experience positive regression in the coming starts. Assuming that this HR and BABIP marks settle, and he can maintain his current whiff rate, Nova should regain value in deeper fantasy leagues. Jason Hammel - I was one year late in calling the Jason Hammel breakout season, which doesn't do me any good now since I don't own in him in any fantasy leagues this season. Prior to 2011, I wrote how Hammel, who owned a 4.81 ERA in 2010, was a prime candidate to breakout thanks to a solid 7.14 strikeout rate, 2.38 walk rate and 0.91 HR rate which translated to a 3.66 xFIP. However, that breakout didn't happen as Hammel struggled en route to posting a 4.65 xFIP and 4.76 ERA in 2011. This season, the right hander has made huge strides despite a tough outing against the Yankees on Monday. He gave up four earned runs and struck out three in just five innings of work. Perhaps most importantly, Hammel came out of the start feeling OK. He had been skipped during this past weekend due to a sore right knee. Prior to Monday, Hammel owned an 8.84 strikeout rate, 2.09 ERA and 2.76 xFIP in his first six outings. He's managed to lower his LD rate to just 13% while improving his GB rate to 61%. He's also averaging 93.5 mph on his fastball, which is a career high, and throwing his slider 6% more often. If you take out his dreadful 2011 season, Hammel had posted two very solid campaigns in 2009 and 2010, making me believe he has a chance to be a decent contributor to fantasy teams for the remainder of the season. Jon Lester - Jon Lester took on the Mariners on Monday and tossed a complete game while whiffing six en route to his second win of the season. Lester hasn't missed nearly as many bats in 2012 as evidenced by his 6.00 strikeout rate. He was walking nearly four batters per game until yesterday's outing when he walked none. Lester's also been unlucky with a strand rate of just 68%. Interestingly, Lester's LD rate has jumped by 5%, but his BABIP has remained in the .280s, which indicates he may be getting lucky that more balls in play haven't fallen for hits. For what's it worth, the southpaw has changed the way he approaches opposing batters by throwing his fastball nearly 10% more often than last season while cutting back on his slider by about 10%. His changeup is also 2 mph faster than in 2011, which makes that pitch just 6 mph slower than Lester's average fastball. That's not a big enough difference to throw off a batter's timing. However, based on his track record, I expect Lester to start striking out more batters and pitching more like he did yesterday. He remains a solid No. 2/3 starter in most league formats. Brandon Morrow - Entering Monday's start against the Rays, Brandon Morrow had pitched like Bizarro Brandon Morrow. Through his first 47 innings, Morrow's strikeout rate was under 8.00 (compared to 10.00+ marks the past two seasons), his walk rate was under 3.00 and he had an ERA of just 2.27 (after recording three straight seasons with a 4.00+ ERA (between 2009-2011). On Monday, Morrow tossed five innings, struck out seven and allowed one earned run, but got the loss thanks to five unearned runs scoring in the 5th inning. Part of Morrow's success to date has been thanks to a high strand rate of 77% and a low .221 BABIP. However, he's also improved his GB rate by 8%, while lowering his LD rate to just 13% - which helps explain the drop in his BABIP. The right hander has been working in more changeups (up 5% compared to 2011) at the expense of using his slider, which may be affecting his whiff rates and contact types. Interestingly, Morrow's 3.88 xFIP is in line with his 2011 mark, indicating that, despite the change in peripheral stats, Morrow's basically providing the same value to the Blue Jays as he has the past couple seasons - despite the ERA differences. For fantasy owners, most would probably take fewer strikeouts if Morrow can continue to post a strong ERA. Mark Teixeira - Mark Teixeira is a player I stayed away from this year because of some concerning trends in his numbers. As teams have implemented a shift on the Yankees' first baseman, we've seen his BA drop the past three seasons entering 2012. His BABIP marks have also fallen in those years as he's struggled to hit the ball the other way and beat the shift. The days of Tex being a .280 hitter are long gone and he's going to be much closer to a .240-.250 for the remainder of his career. On Monday, Teixeira slammed his fifth HR of the season and finished 2-for-4 with 2 RBI. His walk rate has dropped by about 5% compared to 2011, although he's also cut his whiff rate by 5% too. Most concerning is that Teixeira's ISO is down to just .165. He's still a good bet for 30 HRs and 90-100 RBI, but Teixeira hasn't shown anything so far this year to make me think he'll regain the numbers of his prime. Follow me on Twitter for fantasy baseball advice and info.

AL Player Daily Notes - May 14, 2012

Sun, 13 May 2012 22:40:46 -0700

1. Andy Pettitte (SP - Yankees) - Andy Pettitte returned for his first start of the season on Sunday against the Mariners. Cobwebs were certainly expected, but in general the results were positive on Sunday. He pitched 6.1 IP and allowed 4 ER, 7 H, 2 K, and 3 BB for the loss. The runs came on two long-ball mistakes that led to all 4 runs. There were times when Pettitte looked strong including not allowing a hit through the first three innings. His next start will be against the Reds. Continue to proceed with caution with Pettitte. The K's will be low, but he should give fantasy owners a decent change at the W in any given outing. 2. Jarrod Parker (SP - A's) - Jarrod Parker took a very small step back with his first non-QS of the season that led to his first loss. However, he was just one out shy of getting his 4th straight QS with a line of 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 5 K, and 4 BB. Walking the bases loaded in the 6th created the quick hook, but Parker was pretty solid otherwise. He blamed his mechanics today for some of the control issues, but it wasn't a terrible fantasy line at the end of the day. Parker remains a high upside fantasy starter whose ownership is flying right now. His next start will be on the road against the Giants and then the following week against the Angels. Keep him in your rotations as he has yet to give up more than 2 ER in any of his 4 starts this season. 3. Kendrys Morales (DH - Angels) - Morales has been sitting out with a sore Achilles, but was back in action on Sunday as the DH for the Angels. Anything dealing with Morales' ankle should be a cause for concern as the ankle is what kept him out of action for so long leading up to 2012. Either way, the 28 year old Morales has been hitting the ball well recently (when he has been in the lineup) with 2 HR and 5 RBI in 29 AB. For the year, he's .315/.340/.424, but he has struck out 16 times and has only drawn 4 BBs. Morales has never been known to draw a lot of walks with a career BB% of just 6.7%, but this year's rate of below 4% is a career low. 4. Brian Fuentes (RP - A's) - With Grant Balfour out of the closers role in Oakland, Brian Fuentes is the go-to for the 9th inning save opportunity for the A's. Fuentes as over 200 career saves so he is no stranger to the situation. However, he also has 39 blown saves for a SV% of 84%. Add Fuentes to the list of lower tier closers that are taking over as closer this season. I wouldn't be surprised to see Fuentes go through his fair share of struggles as well, but as long as manager Bob Melvin says he is the guy to get saves, he has added fantasy value. 5. Carlos Pena (1B - Rays) - Pena snapped out of his slump on Sunday with a couple of hits. He's still hitting just .122 for May to drop his season average to .232 (which is now more in line with his career average of .238). Low average and extended slumps shouldn't be a surprise to any fantasy owner as this has been Pena's M.O. for his entire career. The focus here is that Pena has 5 HR in 125 AB for an AB/HR of 25.0. Compare that rate to his career rate of 16.1. Certainly a slow-down for Pena, but I expect it to improve into the teens before long. After all, the last three years have not yielded any slowdown in the HR department with AB/HR of 15.8, 12.1, 17.3, and 17.6 dating back to 2008. Follow us on Twitter all year: @Fantistics and @jribando

NL Daily Notes - May 14, 2012

Sun, 13 May 2012 22:12:57 -0700

Juan Pierre (OF-PHI) - Pierre was 2-for-4 with a double and RBI Sunday and is now batting a robust .351/.402/.383. He would probably have more than five stolen bases if not for the fact that the Phillies have to have Jimmy Rollins and his .275 OBP in the leadoff spot, but hey, what do we know? As per usual, Pierre is hitting for zero power with just a .032 ISO and two XBH among his 33 total base hits. That said, he's getting far more playing time than expected, and with John Mayberry batting just .244/.259/.333, expect that to continue. Pierre stole 68 bases in 2010 but dropped to 27 last year in a similar amount of playing time, so don't expect him to suddenly start running wild. A .300 average and 30 steals is possible though, and likely means you made out like a bandit on draft day considering he didn't even have a guaranteed contract headed into spring training. Frank Francisco (RP-NYM) - This could be the end of Francisco as closer for the time being, as the Mets reliever entered Sunday's game with the Mets up 4-2 and here's how that went: triple, walk, single, ejected. Nice work. Manny Acosta then came in and eventually allowed a walk-off grand slam to Giancarlo Stanton to finish off the Mets' meltdown. Francisco had recently lowered his ERA to 5.54 by reeling off three consecutive saves, but in his last two games he's retired a total of two batters while being charged with five runs, leaving the ERA at 8.56 and his WHIP at 1.98. He does have a decent 15:7 K:BB in 13.2 innings, but the next time the Mets need a save, expect Jon Rauch (2.93 ERA) or Bobby Parnell (2.25 ERA, 16:3 K:BB in 16 innings) to get the call. Jeff Suppan (SP-SD) - Yes, Suppan is still in the big leagues. Even better, he has a 2-0 record and 1.69 ERA. Really. We could understand this if all three of his starts were at home against say the Pirates and Cubs, but Sunday, Suppan went into Philadelphia and held the Phillies to two earned runs over six solid innings. Suppan threw just 78 pitches, and at his age, we probably can't expect more than six innings in a given start. If you're like me, you've remained skeptical and kept Suppan on either the waiver wire or your bench, so it's highly possible you've missed your window to take advantage of his unexpected success. Ian Stewart (3B-CHC) - I'm stubborn, so I have Stewart in a couple leagues (along with Pedro Alvarez) in the hopes that he pulls an Alex Gordon and suddenly fulfills the potential that made him a high first-round draft pick several years ago. He's been tough on his fantasy owners for most of the year, but Sunday Stewart doubled and homered to raise his slash line to .195/.272/.354. Stewart's 0.44 EYE isn't bad, and his contact rate is an acceptable 77.7%, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see a few more hits start to fall here soon. It's easy to see Stewart with 20-25 homers at the end of the year given adequate playing time, but whether that comes with a .220 or .260 average remains to be seen. Jonathan Lucroy (C-MIL) - I really like what Lucroy has done so far this year and just as much, I appreciate a manager who will think outside the box and bat a catcher second in the lineup despite him being well, a catcher. Lucroy was 0-for-4 on Sunday, but he's still batting a strong .326/.375/.484 and might be headed for his first All-Star nod. Lucroy had been in the midst of a nine-game hitting streak that included six multi-hit games. His 16:5 K:BB could be better, but it's hard to quibble with what Lucroy has done this year. Lucroy had a pretty solid minor league career before being promoted to Milwaukee for the first time in 2010, so this hasn't come completely out of nowhere.

AL Daily Notes- May 13th 2012

Sun, 13 May 2012 07:55:52 -0700

Andy Dirks - Dirks reached base twice more yesterday, extending his hitting streak to 7 games and bringing his line to 379/423/652 for the year. I was ready to brush this off just like everyone else, but after a closer look I'm not so sure he isn't going to be a solid starter. The power growth that he exhibited in his age 24 and 25 seasons was fairly significant, and he's maintained 15-20 SB speed as he's matured. Aside from a few instances of poor fortune in BABIP he's been a .300 hitter as well, and his K rates are rather solid for a corner OF. He's been a very impatient hitter at the upper levels, and that more than anything gives me pause in going out and picking him up (he's still owned in just 30% of ESPN leagues)....I think his AVG will be pretty volatile with a chase% over 40, but his contact rate has remained close to 90% despite his free-swinging ways, and his minor league K rate is only 14.1%, so there's a chance this will have less impact on him than it would for most players. I think there's more here than just a flash in the pan, and with the struggles of many of the other Tigers it certainly looks like he's going to play every day or close to it. I think he's worth at least a reserve slot in most formats right now, and certainly worth a start in deeper leagues and AL-only leagues. Felix Doubront - Doubront was very solid against the Indians yesterday, holding them to one run on three hits over six innings while picking up his third win of the year. On the surface it's easy to be intrigued by Doubront, who has a terrific K rate, solid velocity for a lefty, an FIP ERA about a run lower than his 4.46 ERA, and pitches for a team that can put up some runs. The problem is that his control ranges from mediocre to poor, his swinging strike% (7.5) can't possibly support this K rate long-term, he's been very fortunate with BABIP thus far, and he faces a pretty difficult schedule. I think despite the FIP ERA that this level of ERA and WHIP are about as good as you could expect from Doubront this year, which make him a borderline start in deeper leagues and waiver wire bait in most. Mark Trumbo - Trumbo stayed hot yesterday, homering again and walking twice in the 4-2 win over Texas. The power has never been a question for the 26 year old, but with his poor contact ability the high AVG this season has been a surprise thus far. He's chasing a bit less this year, allowing for some of this upward move in AVG (and the higher walk rate), but he's also been a bit lucky on balls in play, so I'd expect him to settle more in the .270-.280 range if he continues to play in a similar fashion. Still, that's impressive enough gains for his sophomore campaign in a category that I expected to be a perpetual weakness, and the fact that he's likely to end the year eligible at all four corners is a big boost to his value as well. He is playing a bit over his head right now, but not so much that I'd want to go out of my way to unload him. Mike Carp - Carp hit his second homer since coming off the DL yesterday (and just missed another in the ninth that was overturned by video replay), but the .167 AVG has kept him on the wire in most leagues. The 25 year old is clearly still feeling his way back to full health, as he's hitting a ton of grounders right now, but a much-improved contact rate has me optimistic that he'll be back to normal production sooner rather than later....keep in mind that this is a guy that hit 33 homers last season between AAA and the bigs, and he's still just entering his athletic prime. He should provide adequate value as a 1B/OF in most formats the rest of the way. Zach McAllister - With Josh Tomlin heading to the DL, Zach McAllister came right back to Cleveland to make a second straight spot start, holding the Red Sox to four runs over seven innings with no walks and eight K's. McAllister has been very solid at AAA for the Indians for the past season-plus, exhibiting excellent control and solid K rates while posting a 15-4 record. Through two starts with the Tribe McAllister has walked one and fanned 13, and he gets the Mariners next week on his next turn. I'd be inclined to take a chance on him next week if I had a spot open in most formats, but it would likely be a one-time start as he ends up with the Tigers the following week. He's certainly worth a look at least as long as Tomlin is on the shelf.

Prospect Central 2012 - Week 6

Sun, 13 May 2012 07:28:28 -0700

This is a sample of Insiderbaseball.com's weekly Prospect Central column featuring in-depth analysis of over 120 prospects each season. Please visit Insiderbaseball.com or click the "Home" tab at the top of the page to see all the great insights and features available to our subscribers every day! Jarrod Dyson - Outfielder - Royals 27 year old Jarrod Dyson has already made a couple of trips between Omaha and KC this year, and now he finds himself benefitting from Lorenzo Cain's injury, seeing regular playing time with the Royals. I count exactly 5 homers in 5+ professional seasons for Jarrod since he was taken in the 50th (!) round in 2006, and 4 ISOs of .100 or more in 14 stat lines in those 5+ seasons, all coming on lines with less than 100 ABs. What Jarrod does provide is speed as evidenced by 49 SBs between AAA and the Majors last year in 363 ABs including 11 steals in 44 ABs in the majors. The catch to the speed game however is always that you can't steal first base (with all apologies to Germany Schaefer who actually did - see: "The T206 Collection: The Players & their Stories"), and you can't get to first base without getting to the plate first, even if you are Germany Schaefer. So the question becomes one of whether Jarrod can hit well enough to see regular PT, and can he get on base enough to swipe a few bases. Jarrod's zone skills of late in the higher levels have been adequate. He nearly reached 10% in his walk rate at AAA in 2011, but more importantly he's trimmed his K rate to sub 15% which means he puts the ball in play. That's when his speed becomes an asset, and that has shown up in consistently high BHIP%s. In fact all of that has combined for OBPs of .327, .357, and .363 in his last three tours of AAA and while he hasn't quite ported those rates to the majors yet, he hasn't been awful either. What we've seen so far is a player who is doing just what we described, cutting down his K's putting the ball on the ground (65%+ so far in the majors), and beating feet. Don't be scared off by his BHIP to this point, he's going to be able to maintain a lot of that, his speed makes him one of the few players who can repeat good BHIPs. His OBP is what will determine whether he can earn playing time, and when he puts the ball in play he'll end up on base a lot. I'm also going to concentrate on his BB rate which should rebound. That should help matters. Jarrod appears to be capable of staying in the lineup while the playing time presents itself. He should be able to get on base somewhere between 30% and 33% of the time and once he gets on, his 23 steals in 150 MLB ABs tells me he can steal bases at this level, even if it doesn;t seem that way at the moment. All bets may be off once Lorenzo Cain returns (June, maybe July) and there's no clear promise of future playing time ... But for now, if you need SBs Jarrod is about as good a free agent source of them as you are going to run into at this point in the year in most leagues. Long Term Fantasy Grade C-

YR Lvl   AB   AVG   ISO  HR  SB   BB%    K% BABIP
09 AA   248  .258  .060   0  37   9.5  19.1  .330
10 AAA  195  .272  .077   1  13   7.3  14.6  .317
10 MLB   57  .211  .193   1   9   9.2  24.6  .275
11 AAA  319  .279  .078   3  38   9.5  12.7  .320
11 MLB   44  .205  .023   0  11  13.2  26.4  .290
12 AAA   63  .333  .143   0   7   5.6   7.0  .362
12 MLB   57  .298  .053   0   3   4.8  11.3  .327

Christian Friedrich - Pitcher - Rockies Christian Friedrich was sharp in his major league debut on Wednesday, allowing 2 runs, 1 earned, in 6 innings against the Padres on 5 hits with 7 Ks. He's scheduled for two possible starts this week, the first on Tuesday against the Giants, and perhaps Sunday against the M's. The 25th pick in the 2008 draft, Christian's development stalled (or if you prefer, crashed and burned) the last two seasons most likely as a result of a pair of elbow issues, and a couple of other injuries that weren't necessarily severe but they were significant. A mechanical change that attempted to to leave him much more fluid in his motion as opposed to muscling the ball to the plate seems to have calmed most of his health issues for now. Christian works off his fastball/curve combo. He was flicking 95 at times before the changes to his mechanics and the injuries. He can still get there in anger but he mostly tops out at 93 these days. He has begun however to add or subtract a foot from his fastball more often to keep hitters off it. His curveball is potentially plus, it's a big breaker and it's very good right now. Christian throws a change and a slider as well, but they are show-'em pitches at this point. A presumably healthier pitcher, Christian posted 5 very solid starts in AAA this year, his first visit to the level, and all his indicators seemed to be a little bit healthier as well. His K rate rebounded and he started limiting his walks effectively. Control had been a major issues at the upper levels once you got past his health. Opponents hit just .204 off him before the call up, but a .259 BHIP helped there and a 60.2% LOB certainly helped his AAA ERA as well. Still, we also saw an increase in GB% and another gain in LD% this year. Along with him limiting his walks, those two columns have played a role as well. In Wednesday's start Christian also averaged 92.4 mph on his fastball, a little adrenaline rush in his debut may account for that but if that's a real gain that brightens his picture as well. Christian's curveball is a big part of his package and I am always a little leery of Rockies' pitchers who lean on a curve. Still his stuff should play well in the rest of the NL West and if he's regained some velocity, and he can throw GBs at a 45+% rate, he's going to be effective. I'll be watching his velocity, and looking to see if a third pitch develops to the point where he can be aggressive with it. I think a typical #3 is as high as the ceiling gets with Christian but also I think that projection would be optimistic. I see more of a #4 but I feel confident he can eventually hold an MLB rotation slot. Christian is definitely a matchup play for the rest of his stay this year, and he may never rise above that status, except in deep NL leagues. Long Term Fantasy Grade - C

YR Lvl    IP   ERA  WHIP    K9  BB9  HR9   OBA BABIP  LOB%
09 A    45.1  2.18  1.10  13.1  3.0  0.4  .212  .340  76.8
09 A+   74.1  2.54  1.17  11.3  3.4  0.4  .211  .306  76.3
10 AA   87.1  5.05  1.55   8.0  3.6  1.0  .285  .342  67.7
11 AA  133.1  5.00  1.49   7.0  2.9  1.4  .282  .316  65.5
12 AAA  30.0  3.00  0.90   8.1  1.2  0.3  .204  .259  60.2

NL Daily Notes - May 12th, 2012

Fri, 11 May 2012 23:28:35 -0700

Vance Worley (SP - PHI): If you've read along with the thoughts Schuyler and I have been posting on Worley this season you'll notice a common theme: initial skepticism followed by eventual caving. Our skepticism centered around Worley's inability to generate swinging strikes (5.5% last yr, 5.9% this yr) and an extended minor league track record of middling strikeout rates (career 6.9 K/9). The package didn't add up and frankly it still doesn't add up. Worley's swinging strike rate is amongst the bottom 10% in all of baseball, yet his K Rate ranks in the Top 30 of all of baseball. Where we're starting to come around is in the idea that Worley may be an anomaly; a player who generates so many looking strikes that he can overcome the high contact rates. With the sample sizes growing (170+ big league innings now), the chances for Worley being the exception grow. Opposing batters continue to swing at just 40% of Worley's pitches (league average is 45-46%) and Worley continues to rack up K's looking. At some point you have to figure opponents will change their approach, but I've been figuring that for the last 15-20 starts and it's yet to happen. Continue to start him with confidence as a high-end #3 fantasy starter. I've changed my stance that his high K Rate can't maintain and while I continue to question whether he's an anomaly or hitters are just slow to make an adjustment, I've realized he's not really the sell high candidate I anticipated him being. Worley was strong on Friday night against the Padres, striking out 9 over 6 innings. He allowed just 3 ER's on 6 hits and a BB while generating a remarkable 69% GB Rate in the game. Jordan Schafer (OF - HOU): The real Jordan Schafer is starting to stand up. Schafer went 0-4 with 3 K's on Friday night and is now down to .252/.341/.333 on the young season. As I alluded to in a post on April 20th, Schafer's extremely poor contact rates (74%) make it unlikely for him to hold offensive value. Fortunately from a fantasy perspective Schafer has little competition for playing time in CF and ultimately that opportunity should add up to some value in bulk. Schafer is a career .234/.318/.313 hitter at the big league level. His 35 SB's in 162 total games played at the major league level show the upside in his fantasy value, but it will come with batting average risk, zero power or RBI potential, and above average run production. Make sure the upside in Runs and SB's is worth the downside in the other categories, because Schafer can't hit. Mike Minor (SP - ATL): I typically hate writing about guys that have been covered multiple times within the week, but I get so many questions on Twitter about Mike Minor I figured I'd address him in the notes this morning. Minor struggled again on Friday night getting knocked around for 6 ER's in just 4 2/3 IP. He allowed 8 hits but 5 of them went for extra bases, including 3 more HR's. Minor did strike out 7 and didn't walk a batter which continues a trend of elite peripherals and poor performance. After Friday's outing Minor possesses a 8.72 K/9 and 2.55 BB/9, but poor "luck" stats .333 BABIP, 16.3% HR/FB Rate, and 55.3% LOB% are exaggerating his bad start to the season. Minor has surrendered a 23% LD Rate, so we can't write this all off as luck. In addition his chase rates (22%) are well below average and his swinging strike rates (8.7%) are right at average. It's possible Minor's stuff and control is good enough to allow him to post elite peripherals but command inside the strike zone and inability to get swings outside the strike zone are poor enough to drive the hard contact. Even if that is the case Minor is likely due some level of positive regression. In 10 team leagues I'm at the point where I'm strongly considering dropping Minor in 10 team leagues. I would not be at the point where I could take that tact in deeper leagues. The ability to miss bats is too unique and in leagues deeper than 10-12 teams, I'll certainly be more patient but get him reserved as he works through a rough patch. Chris Capuano (SP - LAD): One of my favorite late round sleepers as a SP this year continued to roll on Friday night. Chris Capuano limited the Rockies to just 1 ER on 4 hits over 7 innings. Capuano struck out just 3, but didn't walk a batter and continues to benefit from his friendly home park that limits HR's. Capuano's K Rate fell to 8.04 K/9 while his BB Rate came down to 3.09 BB/9 on the young season. His skills have always been strong when healthy and the home park helps mitigate his biggest risk as a starter which is the HR. Capuano entered Friday's game with a 44% FB Rate (career 40%), but a 7.1% HR/FB Rate (career 11.6%) had helped hold down his ERA. Throw in some fortunate luck on balls in play (.242 BABIP, 21% LD Rate, .330 or so expected BABIP), along with an absurd 89.1% LOB% and you've got the makings of a phenomenal sell-high candidate. Capuano's solid and he's a high-end matchups option for traditional 10 and 12 team mixed leagues, but he's been masquerading as a #2 fantasy starter and that's simply not the case. He'll get a great matchup next time out in SD, but after that may be the ideal time to sell high. A perennial injury risk, Capuano has been pitching over his head. Michael Cuddyer (OF - COL): We haven't touched on Cuddyer in a while and I guess it's because his performance this year has been almost identical to last season. Cuddyer entered play on Friday with a .284/.347/.468 line that looks remarkably similar to his .284/.346/.459 line from last season. Cuddyer's raw totals haven't seen much improvement over his time in Minnesota but a big part of that is because Cuddyer's peripherals have actually shown some deterioration. He's chasing 39% of pitches outside the zone, which would mark a career high and his 9.3% swinging strike rate is also up over last year (7.8%). Cuddyer's overall swing % is up to 48% which is continuing a trend we've seen from Cuddyer in the last few years. It's been subtle but at 33 Cuddyer is starting his bat a bit earlier than he has in the past. Coors Field will help mask any of this deterioration in skill as it will inflate Cuddyer's power and help boost the RBI/R production to levels he posted when Mauer/Morneau were constantly on base before him. From a fantasy perspective I see little reason for concern here. Yes Cuddyer at age 33 is in a slight decline phase, but he'll continue to be similarly productive and the change in park effects will help mask any skill decline. Follow us on Twitter all year: @Fantistics and @drewdinkmeyer These are only a few of the players we are covering today. We profile over 100 players everyday in our premium section, become a member today.

AL Player Notes - May 12, 2012

Fri, 11 May 2012 22:04:03 -0700

Adam Dunn - The Big Donkey continued his torrid pace on Friday by belting his 11th HR of the season (he hit 11 all of last season) and finished 2-for-2 with two walks. He also didn't strike out in a game for the first time this season. Dunn now owns a .257/.401/.628 slash line with 26 RBI. While people keep talking about how Dunn had struck out at least once in every game this season (until yesterday), the real story is that he's back to being the Adam Dunn who hit at least 38 HRs for seven straight seasons. Dunn's walk rate is 19%, his ISO is an incredible .372 and he owns a solid 22% line drive rate. Up until last season, Dunn was one of the most consistent hitters in baseball, so it's reasonable to think he's pushed that historically bad 2011 season behind him and is back to being one of the best power hitters in fantasy. Jesus Montero - As if Michael Pineda getting injured wasn't enough to make Yankees' fans ticked about the Montero-Pineda deal, Jesus added salt to the wound by going yard against his former team on Friday. He has now blasted five HRs and driven in 17 RBI in 2012. However, I'm concerned about Montero's lack of patience and depressed line drive rate so far this season. He owns a minuscule 2.5% walk rate after posting a 10% mark in 2011. After recording a 27% line drive rate a year ago, he's hitting liners at just an 18% clip. His ISO has also fallen from .262 in 2011 to just .172 and his BA has dropped by about 60 points (although part of this drop is because Montero owned a .400 BABIP last year and just a .292 mark this year). We figured playing home games in Seattle rather than New York would affect Montero's numbers, but not this significantly. Montero is still young and very talented so, for now, I'm chalking up this season's slow start to growing pains and expect the catcher/designated hitter to turn things around in the coming weeks. Jeremy Hellickson - For the second straight season, Jeremy Hellickson is outpitching his peripherals as he entered Friday's matchup versus the Orioles with a 2.75 ERA despite a 4.85 xFIP. Last season, he owned a 2.95 ERA while his xFIP was 4.72. Against Baltimore, Hellickson tossed 6 2/3 innings, struck out six and allowed three earned runs. While some pitchers are able to outpitch their peripherals throughout their careers (i.e. Matt Cain), I don't believe Hellickson will be as fortunate. His strikeout rate is below 6.00, his walk rate is near 4.00 and he's allowing about 1.5 HRs per game. He likely won't maintain an 88% strand rate and, despite maintaining a .223 BABIP in 2011, it's risky to believe he can repeat that luck. You've got to ride him while he gets you results in the ERA and Win departments, but I'd be cautious about believing the right hander can continue this type of success for the remainder of the season. Ubaldo Jimenez - Welp, my excitement that Ubaldo Jimenez might have started to turn the corner by shutting out the Rangers in his last start lasted all of five batters. That was when Will Middlebrooks smoked a two-run double and started the Red Sox on a hit parade against Jimenez on Friday. It was a weird first inning for Jimenez, who threw 30 pitches, walked two batters, hit a batter, allowed two earned runs and struck out the side. After allowing another two earned runs in the second inning, the right hander "settled down" until allowing three more runs in the 5th inning. Jimenez finished the game with five walks, four strikeouts, nine hits allowed and seven earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings. He continues to struggle with his consistency and couldn't locate his pitches as the Red Sox batters make good contact all night. For the season, Jimenez now owns a 5.18 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. Most alarming, his strikeout and walk rates are 5.40 and 6.75, respectively, and his strikeout percentage is down from 21% in 2011 to just 12% this season. There have been several articles on various baseball websites stating that Jimenez is battling multiple mechanical issues, which helps explain why he can't find any consistency in his results. Right now he honestly looks like he should take a couple turns in the minors to find his mechanics (although the Indians would have DFA him to do that, so that won't happen). At least, if he went to the minors, I wouldn't feel like barfing on myself while watching him pitch. Ugh. Clay Buchholz - Clay Buchholz managed to win his fourth game of the season on Friday against the Tribe, yielding three earned runs on eight hits over 6 1/3 innings. Prior to Friday's outing, Buchholz had been downright horrific in his first six starts, despite a 3-1 record. He owned a 9.09 ERA and 5.20 xFIP to go along with walk and strikeout rates in the mid-to-low 5.00s. He had also allowed 10 HRs in just 32 innings. There's just really no good way to spin those stats. One problem for Buchholz is that hitters are making contact on far too many of their swings. In Buchholz's career, batters make contact on 85% of pitches inside the strike zone against him compared to a 93% mark this season. Overall contact against Buchholz is also up 6% compared to last year. Even more alarming is that batters own a 19% LD rate off the right hander after mustering just a 10% mark in 2011. If I'm a Buchholz owner, I keep him firmly on my bench until his indicator stats gets better. If you used to hang a Cory Snyder poster on your bedroom wall, follow me on Twitter.

AL Player Spotlight - May 11, 2012

Fri, 11 May 2012 21:29:07 -0700

Josh Beckett (SP - BOS) - Beckett was rocked by the Indians in his return to the rotation after missing a start to a strained lat muscle, giving up seven runs on seven hits (two home runs) in just 2 1/3 innings as the Tribe hit rocket after rocket to balloon his ERA to 5.97. Of the 10 balls Cleveland hit against him, seven were line drives, flyball hits or home runs. Although Beckett had a bounce back season last year, his groundball rate dropped and his fastball usage continued to plummet as he implemented a cutter. He is capable of heating up for stretches, but his injury history and declining velocity make him a worrisome option. He's worth trotting out there next outing on Tuesday (if he makes the start), if only because the Mariners offense is anemic. Derek Holland (SP - TEX) - Holland delivered his second straight strong outing, allowing just three unearned runs on four hits in six innings against the Orioles with two walks and five strikeouts. He was outstanding down the stretch last year with a 2.77 ERA and 87/28 K/BB in 97 1/3 IP from July 7 on, and has a lot of upside at just 25 with a very good minor league track record. Holland has yet to master right-handed hitters (career .799 OPS against) and is hurt by his home park, but his groundball rate increased over four percent last year and his excellent velocity and breaking balls should lead to an increasing strikeout rate. He's a very good option against the light-hitting A's on Wednesday. Jim Johnson (RP - BAL) - Johnson allowed his first run of 2012, surrendering a three-run homer to David Murphy after he was brought in with two runners on up four runs. Overlooked since he's been on a perennial cellar-dweller, Johnson has been one of baseball's best relievers since he came up to stay in 2008. His strikeout rate is not elite for a reliever, but he's improved his control greatly and his hard, heavy sinking fastball is very difficult to lift with authority. He won't have this many save opportunities going forward, but a majority of the wins the Orioles will have are likely to be close, giving him still a decent amount of opportunities. David Price (SP - TB) - Price had a rough outing at Yankee Stadium, allowing five runs on 11 hits (two home runs) in seven innings, striking out four and walking three. He has struggled in the Big Apple, so it wasn't a surprise to see him hit around against the excellent Yankees lineup. Price's strikeout, walk and groundball rates have improved each year since he's become a starter in the big leagues, and he's moving into his prime at 26 this year. Price has scrapped his slider for a cutter this year and has thrown a lot more changeups at the expense of fastballs, giving him more weapons against right-handed hitters. The fantasy ace has a very tough matchup in Toronto Tuesday, but his potential to dominate every time should have him in starting lineups. Henderson Alvarez (SP - TOR) - Alvarez came through with another solid outing, allowing two runs (one earned) on seven hits in seven innings against the Twins, but his peripherals continued to under perform as he walked three, struck out only two and gave up a home run. The home runs shouldn't continue too much longer as he possesses dominant groundball tendencies, but he has now fanned just 14 in 48 2/3 frames, a pathetic 2.59 per nine innings. He has thrown fewer fastballs and changeups this year as he has increased his slider usage and added a cutter, but the variations aren't large enough to explain such a low strikeout rate and his fastball velocity is around his average last year. He'll take on the Rays at home Tuesday.

NL Player Notes - May 11th, 2012

Fri, 11 May 2012 06:22:27 -0700

Stephen Strasburg- WAS- Hot- Strasburg got a season-high 13 strikeouts in yesterday's start against the Pirates. He now has a 3-0 record and 1.64 ERA on the year. Strasburg has gotten a little lucky, with a .269 BABIP, but his FIP of 2.11 shows his success isn't dependent on good luck. He recorded all those Ks in only 6 IP and the Nationals seem to be taking care not to overwork the 23-year-old. He only threw 103 pitches and hasn't hit the 110-pitch mark this season. James McDonald- PIT- Hot- McDonald's .260 BABIP and 78.5% LOB% are undoubtedly contributing greatly to his 2.70 ERA, but the 27-year-old has been helping himself. He has slightly increased his K/9 from 7.47 in 2011 to 7.61 this season and has cut his BB/9 from 4.11 to 3.19. Last season's 1.26 HR/9 rate is starting to look like an outlier, as his .49 mark this season is right near his 2010 number of .50. McDonald may not be able to sustain his current production, but the 27-year-old has the potential for a career year. Jake Diekman- PHI- Rookie- At least in the early going this season, Diekman has conquered his control demons. In 65 IP at AA last year he had a BB/9 rate of 6.09. In his 15.1 IP at AAA this season he is at 1.76 while increasing his K/9 ratio from 11.49 to 12.91. If those numbers translate to the major league level, Diekman will be more than a LOOGY. Adam LaRoche- WAS- Hot- LaRoche's 6 homers so far this season is already twice his 2011 total. Any lingering doubts about residual effects from last year's shoulder injury should be gone. What does need to be taken into consideration, though, are LaRoche's splits. He is a road warrior this year. Nationals Park has had a great impact on LaRoche's performance so far. All of the homers have come away from home and he is hitting .400 on the road and only .233 at home. Garrett Jones- PIT- Stats- Jones gets matchups as favorable as possible in his platoon situation. He only has 3 ABs against lefties this season and still has only a .264 average. The main problem is his plate discipline. Jones has only drawn 3 walks this season in 76 PAs. He is swinging at 41.9% of the pitches outside the strike zone. The number of walks equals the number of strikeouts he had just last night. A Batting EYE of .17 doesn't bode well for living up to the promise he showed in 2009. Matching his total of 16 homers from last year, let alone the 21 he hit in each of 2009 and 2010 seems to be an unlikely event.

NL Player Notes -- May 10

Thu, 10 May 2012 21:44:15 -0700

1. Jonathan Lucroy(C, MIL) - Lucroy added a pair of hits in four at-bats against the Reds Wednesday to bring his batting average for the season up to .321. Lucroy's Contact rate is just shy of 88 percent this season, which has contributed to his batting average surge. He was a career .260 hitter prior to this season, so his start has been a pleasant surprise. However, his BABIP is very high at .359 and he's only walked four times in his 93 PA, so it's unlikely he'll remain above .300 all season. Then again, he is killing left-handed pitching to the tune of .421, and while that represents a very small sample, he has a career batting average of .304 against southpaws, so it's not at all out of line with his history. Since he splits catching duties with George Kotteras, who doesn't hit lefties well, Lucroy will continue to get all of the starts against southpaws, which bodes well for his continued success. Lucroy turns 26 this June, so we're seeing a batter who is just entering his prime years. Lucroy's value continues to grow and will only continue to do so at a thin position for offensive production. 2. Paul Maholm (SP, CHC) - Maholm stifled the Braves for seven innings Wednesday, scattering three hits while striking out three and walking three to bring his record for the season to 4-2. After a pair of disastrous outings to start the season with an ERA of 13.50, Maholm has settled in over his last four starts and brought it down to 4.05 with a WHIP of 1.08. He hasn't allowed more than one run in his last four starts, but more importantly, he is generating many more ground balls since those first two bad outings. In fact, his Groundball percentage is at 54.7 percent, a career-high. His strikeout rate remains very low at 4.59 K/9, while his walk rate continues to creep up (2.43 BB/9) towards his career rate (2.98 BB/9). Maholm doesn't generate enough strikeouts to make him worthy of mixed league use, but he keeps finding a way to win so he'll have some value in NL-only leagues. 3. Rafael Dolis (RP, CHC) - Dolis notched his third save of the season, pitching a scoreless ninth inning against the Braves Wednesday to preserve a one run lead for Paul Maholm. Since inheriting the closers job from Carlos Marmol last week, Dolis has two saves and a win while pitching four scoreless innings with just one strikeout. Unfortunately, Dolis has just two pitches in his repertoire, a fastball that averages 94-95 mph and a slider he lofts in there at 82 mph. He goes to the fastball more than 88 percent of the time, and from what I've seen it doesn't have all that much movement on it. So far, he's managed to produce grounders 49.1 percent of the time and fly balls less than 20 percent of the time. However, a line drive rate of 31.6 percent indicates that when he gives up hits, batters tend to drive the ball well. Walks were a problem throughout Dolis' five-year minor league career; his career walk rate in the minors was 4.5 BB/9. So far, he has a K:BB ratio of 5:8 in 19.1 innings pitched. That is not a recipe for success for a pitcher closing out games. He's been helped immensely by a BABIP of .193, which isn't likely to continue for long. Overall, Dolis has the look and feel of a bandaid solution to the Cubs closer problem, and odds are that someone else ends up in that role before long. If you've already invested in Dolis, keep a close watch on him and dump him as soon as he fails. If you haven't already grabbed him and are tempted to do so, think twice and look the other way. 4. Tim Hudson (SP, ATL) - Hudson turned in a typical outing against the Cubs Wednesday, tossing seven innings and scattering five hits while giving up just one run and striking out one. Unfortunately, he was outdone by Paul Maholm and didn't get any run support from the Braves offense, which is second in the NL, averaging 5.35 runs per game. The rap on Hudson the last few seasons has been the lack of strikeouts, which limits his Fantasy value. He is one of those pitchers that is better in real baseball than Fantasy baseball because of the lack of strikeouts. He actually had his highest strikeout rate in years in - start this season with 12 strikeouts over his first 11 innings, the lone strikeout he added Wednesday along with seven IP brings his K rate for 2012 down to 6.5 K/9, and you can expect that to sink even further. Aside from last season's spike, Hudson hasn't topped 6.3 K/9 and usually hovers around 5.8 K/9. Hudson is an acceptable NL-only pitcher, but in leagues that use K's he is a bit of a liability. 5. Christian Friedrich (SP, COL) - The Rockies promoted Friedrich from Triple-A Colorado Springs where he was 2-1 in five starts with an ERA of 3.00 and a 0.90 WHIP. He was pitching very well there, as his 27:4 K:BB ratio shows. Oddly enough, he didn't pitch all that well the past two seasons in Double-A, so his hot start this season is somewhat of a surprise. What wasn't surprising was his six innings against the lowly Padres Wednesday. Friedrich struck out seven and walked one, while allowing one run on five hits and notching his first big league win. Overall, he wasn't very efficient; he needed 93 pitches (60 for strikes) to get through his six innings. It's not clear if the Rockies intend to keep him in the show for another start, but if this outing is any indication of where the 24-year-old is at, perhaps they should consider it. For Fantasy purposes, Friedrich just might have some value, given his history of decent control and solid strikeout rates. At the very least, he's worth keeping an eye on.

AL Player Notes - May 10th, 2012

Thu, 10 May 2012 06:30:46 -0700

Francisco Liriano- MIN- Drop Value- Liriano was moved from the rotation to the Minnesota bullpen. The Twins are having a bad year and they may have pushed the panic button on Liriano too soon, especially since manager Ron Gardenhire says they envision Liriano's return to the rotation. Liriano's .365 BABIP, 55.6% LOB% and abnormal 37.9% GB% point to luck having a large part in his poor performance. His 18.8% HR/FB ratio is almost twice his career norm and that combined with the low GB ratio has led to a HR/9 of 2.03. Those things would likely be cured by some regression to the mean. The one area of genuine concern is Liriano's control. His % of pitches in the strike zone has fallen to 36.2%, after dipping below 40% for the first time in his career last season. Batters are swinging less resulting in more walks. After his BB/9 jumped to 5.02 in 2011 it has continued to rise this year, up to 6.41. That is going to be tough for him to fix with sporadic appearances out of the bullpen. Scott Feldman- TEX- FYI- Yesterday's rainout and today's resulting real 2-for-the-price-of-1 doubleheader creates a need for the Rangers to have a spot starter on Sunday. It may end up being Feldman, although manager Ron Washington wouldn't commit. It's easy to see why. Feldman's last spot start was ugly and he has given up 3 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks in his last 2 relief appearances covering 3.2 IP. However, with no glaring candidates for the DL making a callup likely, Feldman might get the start almost by default. Jake Peavy- CHW- Hot- Peavy has thrown quality starts in all 7 of his appearances so far this season. Last night he allowed 1 run on 7 hits and a walk while striking out 5 in 7 IP. This was significant because it came after an outing of 122 pitches, which came on the heels of a 116-pitch start. Peavy only threw 101 pitches last night, which was good, but a lot of the health questions are being answered positively. A .234 BABIP is helping his performance greatly but with a K/9 rate of 7.47 very close to last year and a BB/9 dropping to 1.20, he is looking solid even if it is unlikely he will sustain this level of performance. Jeanmar Gomez- CLE- Cold- Gomez's string of improving starts ended yesterday when he was charged with 8 runs on 9 hits and 4 walks in 6.2 IP. The main culprit was a lack of control as Gomez threw only 57 strikes in his 106 pitches. The outing increased his ERA to 4.66, but his FIP is at 3.60, so without the uncharacteristic wildness there is still some potential for solid pitching in future starts. David Robertson- NYA- Cold- Sure, Robertson has allowed 4 hits and walked 3 in his first 2 appearances since getting the closer job. But he also struck out 3. Robertson has a BABIP of .385 in his 13.2 IP this season and still a WHIP of only 1.24 and ERA of 2.63. If anyone is jumping ship prematurely and you have a chance to get in on some panic buying, this would be a great opportunity.