http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/ Fantasy Baseball blog, draft software, player projections, and everything needed to win your league. en Copyright 2008 Sun, 11 May 2008 21:28:52 -0700 http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/ http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss Hunter Pence: Pence extended his hitting streak to 9 games on Sunday while effectively carrying the Astros offense against the Dodgers. Pence drove in 2 and scored another 2 accounting for 4 of the Astros 8 runs with a 3-4 effort that included a 2B. The outing raised Pence’s batting average to .273 on the season. Much has been made of Pence’s early season struggles and the truth is a bit too much was expected of the youngster after his stunning 2007 debut where he hit .322/.360/.539 in 456 AB’s. Pence’s high K Rate and high average on balls in play last year should’ve been an indicator that the .322 batting average was a bit of a mirage, the problem in forecasting was knowing whether Pence’s impressive power (12.2% extra base hit rate) was a fluke or not. A look at Pence’s month-by-month splits in 2007 shows a hitter who the league was adjusting to as his Slugging % dropped from .593 in May all the way down to .480 in September at the same time Pence’s K Rate was climbing. Based on last season’s monthly splits I think a .280-.285/.325-.335/.465-.480 would be a more reasonable expectation for the youngster. That type of production should put him close to a .285-80-20-90-10 type season which would fall short of some of the lofty pre-season expectations. Miguel Tejada: Don’t ever underestimate the difference in the quality of the NL and the AL. After four consecutive years of declining Slugging % in the AL East, Tejada looks re-born in the NL Central. There isn’t a bigger drop in competition Tejada could’ve made and its showing early in the 2008 season. A 2-4 effort on Sunday raised his line to .342/.380/.539 and suddenly Tejada’s performing back at his MVP level of yester-year. Taking a look at Tejada’s peripherals we see a .291 BHIP% and a .352 BABIP that is helping some of the .342 batting average, but everything else looks in line. His EYE is a bit reduced thanks to a slightly reduced BB Rate, but his K Rate is right in line and his extra base hit rate has jumped considerably. This suggests Tejada’s just seeing a bit more he likes to hit early in the season and being pitched around a bit less than his Baltimore days (this will happen with Lance Berkman hitting behind you). All signs point to a pretty legitimate improvement from Tejada’s baseline the last few years and suggest the switch to the NL Central has brought along some increased power potential out of the SS. In the AL blurbs yesterday I noted trying to sell a guy like Jeter and look for a better, less regarded SS like Furcal. Tejada fits this bill perfectly as well as another SS with enough concerns that owners will believe they’re selling high. Tejada’s improvements look legitimate and while the pre-season concerns were certainly justified, it looks like Tejada should be able to get back to his Real Age 31 production (2006), despite turning the clock 2 years forward earlier in the year. Brewers Bullpen: A week after suggesting I didn’t think Gagne would lose the closer’s job, here we are. Gagne took Jason Isringhausen’s lead and removed himself from the closer’s role with comments through the media indicating he had lost confidence and felt out of place in the role. Ned Yost was left with little choice but to oblige and remove him from the time being and the first day out the Brewers were faced with a save situation. Salomon Torres got the first shot but was pulled in favor of matchups after allowing 2 runners on. Brian Shouse came in for the situational save with Guillermo Mota warming up behind him. As David mentioned in yesterday’s blurbs, Mota seems to be the guy who has the best chance of success, but it looks like Yost values experience in the role and has turned to Torres for the time being. From my vantage point, this is an absolute mess and the Brewers are going to end up going by the dreaded bullpen-by-committee for the time being. I’d imagine this last 2-3 weeks until Gagne has some good outings in low pressure situations and then he’s thrust back into the role. If I had to speculate on saves I’d look towards Torres immediately, but to be honest I’m avoiding this situation if I can. There’s going to be a number of games in which the Brewers are mix and matching pieces late and anyone could end up getting saves. I still think Gagne’s the guy long-term and I’m willing to bet he clears the 30 save plateau this season, so I wouldn’t drop him yet. Troy Glaus: Glaus returned from the tricep injury he suffered on Friday and went 2-3 with a Run and another BB. Glaus’ early season production has been underwhelming as he’s hit just .232/.347/.360 and has just 1 HR, but the indicators are actually pretty good. Glaus’ EYE has risen early on in the season with an increase in his BB Rate and a drop in his K Rate. Glaus extra base hit rates also aren’t completely out of line compared to the 38 HR season in 2006 as he’s producing extra base hits in 11.2% of his AB’s compared to 12.0% in 2006. The problem is to this point in the season they’re almost all 2B’s as his miniscule HR/FB Rate of 2.4% is hiding some of his power potential. Similarly Glaus is suffering from some horrid luck on batted balls in play with just a .181 BHIP%. There is some significant upside for Glaus as the indicators suggest there is some room for growth. I still think Glaus is a back-end 3B option in 10-team mixed leagues, but those in deeper leagues should really jump at the chance to trade for him while his value is low. Carlos Beltran: I have mixed feelings on Beltran because the majority of the indicators suggest his early season slump has largely been luck induced. His .160 BHIP% and his miniscule 8.1% HR/FB Rate both show plenty of room for growth, while his solid .93 EYE and terrific 14% extra base hit rate show impressive peripherals. However the one number that jumps out at me and concerns me a bit is his 46% GB Rate. Beltran’s had leg problems each of the last few years and I’m a bit concerned that the increased GB Rate (he typically sits in the mid-high 30’s) is a result of an inability to get lift from his legs and that he’s coming over the top of the ball a bit more and as a result generating more ground balls. The other indicators are so impressive that I’m still buying into Beltran as a nice buy low opportunity, but the lack of SB attempts and the leg concerns make me believe you’re buying low on more of a 4th round type player than the 2nd round player he was drafted as. There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning. Members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here. Not a member? Join today. ]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/nl_daily_player_notes_may_12th_2008.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/nl_daily_player_notes_may_12th_2008.html Player Commentary Sun, 11 May 2008 21:28:52 -0700 Milton Bradley: You know who Milton Bradley is? He’s the hot chick with the crazy eyes, I’m convinced. I mean think about it, let’s draw some parallels between scoping out the waiver wire and scoping out the bar. So you’re looking through the waiver wire and all of the sudden you see this guy hitting in the middle of a Texas lineup (Texas lineup = little black dress) and hitting a ton (hitting a ton = filling out said dress nicely), and he’s got pretty good career averages per 162 games (.274/.360/.441 with 19 HR’s, 15 SB’s, 85 Runs, 76 RBI’s). But then you dig a little deeper (get a little closer) and you see an average of just 80 games a year (the crazy eyes) and you stop for a second but then that damn black dress pulls you right back in. Next thing you know you’re in a relationship and things are going pretty well. In fact things are going REALLY well to the tune of .301/.407/.487 (I’m not going to draw a parallel here, seriously… the black dress was as far as I was going to go) and by this point you’re so fascinated with all the good things that have happened that you’re starting to lower the guard a bit. You’ve convinced yourself that the crazy eyes were just a thing of the past and she’s changed for you. Your buddies have stopped trying to warn you because they figure you’re in too deep… and well… you are. And this is where we are if you’re a Milton Bradley owner. Every morning you wake up and Milton Bradley isn’t injured (hasn’t slashed your tires) you should feel lucky, because you’re rolling those dice every single day. It’s going to be great for as long as it lasts but it usually doesn’t last long so for now sit back and enjoy the ride because in the end thankfully this is just fantasy and you can always use a DL slot or just drop Bradley if those crazy eyes pop up again. If only there was a DL slot for dating… Daisuke Matsuzaka: As Schuyler alluded to earlier in the week, Dice-K was able to take advantage of the favorable May schedule in his second turn of the month picking up his 2nd win with 7 strong innings against the Twins. With the win Dice-K now sits at 6-0 with a tidy 2.45 ERA. Despite the early season success and likely continued success through the end of the month, I’d consider throwing out feelers for Dice-K now. In fact one of my favorite trade techniques is throwing out feelers to your league right before an extremely favorable schedule. It has a nice additive effect if the player can take advantage of the schedule because the player is in the forefront of your opponents’ minds now that they know he’s available and allows for the stock to rise a bit further. I digress, here’s why I’d consider putting out feelers on Dice-K, all of his peripherals are trending downwards. Matsuzaka has an increased BB Rate in the early going paired with a dropping K Rate and some favorable luck (Strand Rate = .83, BHIP% = .179, HR/FB = 7.5%). He’s pitching worse than he did last year and being held up by some good luck. Even so, he should be able to take advantage of the upcoming schedule (struggling MIL, KC), but lookout because the regression is coming at some point. Now is the perfect time to start talking trade with Dice-K and trying to sell high. Francisco Liriano: We haven’t talked too much about Liriano since the demotion but things down on the farm haven’t been going significantly smoother. In 4 minor league starts Liriano has walked 14 and struck out 15 in 19 1/3 innings. The control continues to be a problem for Liriano as he struggles to find consistency with his new mechanics. Despite the continued struggles his start last night was a small step in the right direction. Liriano got through 6 innings, walking just 2 and striking out 5 while allowing 2 ER’s on 5 hits. The improved command allowed him to get past 5 innings for the first time since being sent down and hopefully this is a step in the right direction. As the Twins have reminded us though, this isn’t going to be a quick process. Liriano isn’t likely to be back anytime within the next month and if you’re rostering Liriano you’re really hoping for contributions in the 2nd half. While it’s hard for us to let go of the upside of Liriano, it’s also easy to forget he’s learning to throw from a completely different arm angle. There is no guarantee Liriano’s electric stuff that came from his previous arm angle will translate to the new mechanics and for that reason I’ve soured a bit on Liriano’s ceiling for this season. I still believe he can make an impact in the 2nd half, but I think the dream scenario of him returning to his 2006 form is just that: a dream. Evan Longoria: As with most young players, Longoria’s first month in the big leagues has had its share of ups and downs. On Friday night Longoria hit his first major league walkoff HR ending an 8.5 inning scoreless drought in Tampa and giving the Rays an opening series win. On Saturday Longoria took another 0-fer with 2 more strikeouts. As Tom noted last week, Longoria’s BB Rate and power numbers are very impressive in the early going as is the High FB Rate (over 60%), but Longoria’s High K Rates are going to limit the batting average upside. I mentioned before the season that I thought Longoria’s ceiling was similar to that of more stable veterans like Ty Wigginton and Hank Blalock (unfortunately they’re both injured now) and I still feel similarly that Longoria’s hype outweighs his ceiling in terms of production. Longoria’s K Rate has been increasing into May (31%) and his BB Rate has been dropping as well. He’s going to hit some adjustment periods as most youngsters do and while the overall production will be there (think .260-25-90) it’s going to be inconsistent. Derek Jeter: Jeter knocked out his first HR of the season on Saturday in a 2-5 effort that raised his average to .308. Hitting above .300 is nothing new for Cap’n Jetes as he’s hit above .300 in 9 of his 12 full seasons, unfortunately the batting average is about the only thing for Cap’n Jetes that is the same. It’s one thing to see Jeter’s power numbers down early in the season as this would be expected of a 33 year old past his power prime, but Jeter’s stopped walking (3.6%) all of the sudden and his EYE (.36) is evaporating. Jeter’s also slowed down on the basepaths, having attempted just 1 SB on the year so far and being caught. While Jeter continues to be a strong batting average contributor and Run scorer at the SS position, his overall value appears to finally be heading towards a decline. The early returns on this season suggest the decline may be steeper than we were all ready for as Jeter’s producing just a .738 OPS. If you can move Jeter based on name value right now, I’d consider acting quickly. Maybe an attempt at tricking a Furcal owner into thinking they’re selling high? There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning. Members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here. Not a member? Join today. ]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/al_daily_player_notes_may_11th_2008.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/al_daily_player_notes_may_11th_2008.html Player Commentary Sun, 11 May 2008 00:37:09 -0700 Shawn Estes Estes will take over the fifth starter role for the Padres this week, making his first start on Tuesday in Chicago. Make sure you activate any and all Cubs hitters for this one. Should Estes somehow survive this start, he’s in line for another start over the weekend. The 35 year-old Estes was 4-2 with a 3.67 ERA in six Triple-A starts with 33 hits allowed in 34 1/3 innings and a 25:7 K:BB. That should make him well-equipped to handle Derrek Lee and Alfonso Soriano. Anyway, it’s been six years since Estes had any fantasy relevance, and his promotion shows nothing more than San Diego’s desperation to fill their No. 5 starter slot. With Mark Prior (shoulder) seemingly out until July (2008? 2009?), Estes will get his final shot in the big leagues. Hanley Ramirez With all the savings the Marlins had banked from dealing away their high-priced talent, most notably Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, you had to wonder where the money would be going. Jeff Loria’s pockets? A new Porsche for Larry Beinfest? Apparently not, as the Marlins have apparently ponied up to sign Hanley Ramirez to a team-record six-year $70 million contract. The contract will buy out Ramirez’s first three years of free agency, and assuming he continues at or even above his current level of production, the Marlins will save millions here. At some point, however, I envision Ramirez moving to the outfield, perhaps even center field with Cameron Maybin and Jeremy Hermida playing the corners. Wherever Ramirez winds up though, he’ll produce. Ham-Ram is producing at a .97 FPI clip vs. our preseason .85 projection. Ramirez’s CT% has dropped a bit so far this year (85% to 80%), but it’s still fine and that’s really nitpicking with a guy batting .336/.421/.569 with 13 stolen bases. We could be talking about a guy with 40 HR / 60 SB potential here. Hitting third won’t help him reach those 60 steals, but it certainly hasn’t stopped him lately (3 SB in last 4 G). Simply a top-5 offensive player. Clayton Kershaw With Esteban Loaiza (shoulder) on the DL, the Dodgers are going to need a fifth starter on May 17. Candidates include Hong-Chih Kuo, Chan Ho Park, and potentially, the game’s top pitching prospect in Clayton Kershaw. Kuo has pitched great lately, but while he’s allowed just one run in 13 2/3 innings with an incredible 23:3 K:BB as a reliever, Kuo also has a 5.06 ERA in three starts, averaging under four innings per start. I’d say he’s found his niche and should stay there until his next arm injury. Park is also thriving as a long reliever with a 2.46 ERA despite a 9:10 K:BB, so why mess with success. If they think Kershaw is ready, he could be the choice. He’s certainly handling Double-A competition (1.08 ERA, 10.0 K/9). Interestingly, the Dodgers have taken a page from the “Joba Rules” and have implemented the “Kershaw Decree”. Kershaw will be limited to 25 innings a month in order to keep him fresh for the stretch run where they expect him to have a Joba-like impact, whether it be as a starter or reliever. In the near-term, it could be as the club’s No. 5 starter, so pick him up NOW if he’s available and allowed to be picked up. Minor league hitter are batting just .192 against Kershaw, and as we saw this spring when he allowed one run in 14 innings with a 19:3 K:BB, big league hitters are going to have trouble with his stuff as well. Todd Wellemeyer You know you’re a baseball junkie when…you make it a point to watch Todd Wellemeyer. Having seen Wellemeyer struggle in previous seasons, I had to see for myself. Wellemeyer proceeded to hold the ice-cold Brewers to two unearned runs over 6 2/3 innings before Jason Isringhausen blew yet another save. Wellemeyer looked good, certainly not dominant (two strikeouts), but his command has improved by leaps and bounds. He’s walking just 3.0 per nine innings after last year’s 4.5 clip. I’d like to see his 37% GB% trend upwards, but as long as he continues with his current level of command, Wellemeyer may be a serviceable No. 5. The last time Wellemeyer topped 100 innings in a season was 2003, and with Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, and Matt Clement all due back at various points later in the year, it’s hard to see Wellemeyer sustaining his level of success over a full season, but it’s probably save to ride him for now in NL-only leagues. Omar Vizquel Get ready for a San Francisco surge in the NL West, as Omar Vizquel returns from a knee injury to provide the offense that’s been missing since Barry Bonds left after last season. Okay, hyperbole aside, the 41 year-old Vizquel is back, hopefully for the Giants sake to prove that he has something left prior to the July trade deadline. Vizquel should be good for double-digits steals despite his advanced age, but the fact that he’ll be pushing Manny Burris (three hits on Friday, four SB in just 42 at-bats) to a utility role is a shame. Brian Bocock (11-for-77) gets sent, deservedly so, to Triple-A, but Burriss not getting regular at-bats so the rebuilding Giants can trot out a 41 year-old SS is a joke. Burriss is far from a finished product (.281 OBP in Triple-A this year), but there’s the Giants for you. ]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/nl_player_spotlight_may_11_2008.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/nl_player_spotlight_may_11_2008.html Player Commentary Sat, 10 May 2008 23:06:58 -0700 Derrek Lee blasted his 9th HR of the season yesterday afternoon as he continues his bid to hit 40+ bombs in 2008. Lee’s totals now read 9/25/.322 and his indicators right now are pretty similar to those in his 46-homer 2005 campaign. His BB/K is an even 1.00 (19/19) vs. a .78 in 2005, his OPS is at .978 vs. 1.080 and his BHIP is slightly higher at .265 in comparison to .259 in 2005. Lee has never had an inordinately high BHIP like you see with some high AVG hitters, but he still has a BA consistently above .300. I don’t see his BA dipping anywhere below .310 for any extended period of time this season and he looks locked in as one of the leagues biggest power hitters this year. For as good as Haren was yesterday, Ted Lilly was that much better. Lilly was fantastic as he improved to 3-4, fanned 10 batters in 7 IP while allowing only 1 ER on 3 H. The 3-hitter marks Lilly’s third straight quality start for the Cubs and he has lowered his ERA from 7.30 to 5.24. Lilly finished 2007 with an FPI of 1.70 but before yesterday that category had not broken 1.00. I know of some managers that lost patience with Lilly in April and unloaded him so you might want to scour the waiver wires to see if he’s available. He’s certainly worth a pickup now that he’s back on track. Pat Burrell is having a very good and very interesting year. I said earlier in the season that I didn’t think Burrell had turned a corner as far as patience at the plate is concerned given the fact that he is 32 years old, but I may have been wrong. Burrell’s BB/K last year was .95, easily the highest of his career. He also struck out a career low 120 times. Although 120 is still a pretty big number he at least kept up in the BB department. This season has been more of the same and even better. Burrells’ BB/K after his 3 BB performance last night is now 1.03. His BHIP is below .250 and his Ct rate is only 76% but his ISO is an astounding .322. He has collected 11 2B and 9 HR as well as 30 RBI. This says to me that while he’s not making contact as much as he should for a .300-plus batting average, he’s killing the ball when he is making contact. Burrell’s BA has dropped from .349 to .303 in his last 11 games, mainly due to a raise in K’s, but I actually don’t believe that will continue. Normally this would be a point that I’d say he’s about to hit a very bad slump and get back near his career .259 BA. However, his newfound patience at the dish will allow him to keep his average up when he’s going through cold stretches like this. In addition, his average will spike when he gets hot again. Burrell is no longer a waiver player in my opinion; I believe this is the year he finally shows us what he’s fully capable of doing. Lance Berkman is absolutely pulverizing the ball right now. Berkman went 3-4 last night against with Dodgers with a 2B, HR, 2 RBI and 2 R. The multi-hit performance extends his hitting streak to 8 games and it is also his 6th straight multi-hit game. He’s hitting an eye-popping .625 during this hit streak and his season numbers are astounding - .380/12/35 along with a .449 OBP and 1.201 OPS. Although we all know he is a great hitter, you might be thinking that a fortunate BHIP is helping him to his high BA. Wrong. Berkman’s BHIP is only .247 right now, which is below his .253 average over the last 3 years. However his BB/K is an awesome 1.33 and his K% is at 12% (10% lower than what he finished with in 2007. Another amazing thing about his start so far - he has 6 SB. This guy is easily the best player in all of baseball right now. http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/nl_player_spotlight_7.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/nl_player_spotlight_7.html Player Commentary Sat, 10 May 2008 02:24:35 -0700 Jose Contreras – Contreras has somewhat bounced back from last season’s disaster. He picked up his third win last night, pitching 7 innings of one run ball to lower his ERA under 4. Contreras has been better this year, mainly due to inducing more groundballs. His GB:FB ration last season was 1.24, and it is 1.25 for his career. However, this season it has increased dramatically to 2.37. This has helped Contreras to lower his HR/9 from 1 last season to .45 this season. He has also lowered his BB/9, and just about the only negative thing about his numbers so far this season is that his K rate is decreasing for the 5th straight season (every year since his rookie season). Look for Contreras to be much better than last season if he keeps pitching like this. Kevin Youkilis – Kevin Youkilis is a wonderful ball player, but you might want to sell high on him, as his current power numbers, at least in terms of homeruns, are unlikely to continue. Youkilis’s current HR rate is 4.6, well above his HR rate of any year from 2004 – 2007 (2.9/1.1/2.0/2.6). Youkilis certainly has value in a loaded Boston lineup, and he will hit for a decent average. But, I think it is unlikely that he tops 20 homers on the season, even with his hot start. Lyle Overbay – Overbay appears to be regaining the doubles stroke that made him valuable during 2004 – 2006. After hitting just 2 doubles during his first 32 games, Overbay doubled 4 times in his last 3 games before last night. However, there are concerns that Overbay is not the same player he was during that time. We will give him a pass on last season’s poor performance because of his hand injury, but so far this season he is hitting just .279/.388/.378 despite a lucky singles average of .307. Also, his HR rate is a pitiful 0.8. Part of Overbay’s problems have come due to a decreased contact rate. His career average is 80%, but his contact rate so far this season is just 74%. Jon Garland – Garland took a no decision last night, despite hurling 8 shutout innings. Over the course of those 8 innings, Garland gave up 4 hits and 3 walks while striking out 2. When Garland is successful, he is able to get ground ball outs, and half of his recorded outs last night came via the groundball. However, Garland does not strike out many batters, and last night’s performance, although the end result was good, did nothing to make me think he could become more consistent. At the beginning of the year, I felt that Garland was a good value pick, but his career K rate (.52), which is not very good in the first place, has actually dropped this year to .23.]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/al_player_spotlight_may_10th_2008.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/al_player_spotlight_may_10th_2008.html Player Commentary Sat, 10 May 2008 00:24:41 -0700 Jeff Francoeur Frenchy’s mired in a 5-31 slump that’s dropped his average to .263. Despite the slow start there are some legitimate reasons for optimism surrounding Francoeur. He’s improved his EYE up to .50, largely thanks to a significant drop in his K Rate (down from 18.5% to 8.5%). Furthermore the drop in his K Rate hasn’t corresponded in a drop in his power as his extra base hit rate has actually improved. He’s also suffering from some abnormally bad luck as evidenced by his .191 BHIP%. All are good signs for Frenchy and suggest he makes for an excellent buy-low target, start putting proposals together now because the bat’s going to heat up and the power’s going to come in bunches. Chris Iannetta: Iannetta’s a guy that a number of us here have maintained confidence in despite the early season playing time concerns and now it’s time to instruct you to transition from “keeping an eye on him” to “going out and getting him”. In fact when writing the Value Picks column earlier this week I had a tough decision who to choose between Snyder and Iannetta but went with Snyder because I felt bigger things were on the verge immediately. Iannetta’s got an intriguing bat, highlighted by his .303/.407/.508 career minor league line, and now it appears he’s got the playing time to go with it. Iannetta’s received 3 or more plate appearances in 5 consecutive games and was a late insert into Thursday’s lineup as manager Clint Hurdle wanted to keep the hot bat in the lineup. Iannetta promptly rewarded Hurdle with a 2 RBI 1B in the first inning. Rockie hitters are always worth a look and one with the minor league history that Iannetta has REALLY deserves a look. He’s another guy who has a chance to be a Top 10 catching option from here on out because of the favorable home park and lineup. He should absolutely be owned in all 2 catcher formats and is the type of guy I prefer to try to catch lightening in a bottle with rather than investing in the boring and relatively unproductive veteran catchers like Pierzynski, Varitek, Pudge, etc. Ryan Ludwick: This is getting rather ridiculous don’t you think? Ryan Ludwick hit 2 more HR’s on Thursday capping off his ridiculous trip to Coors Field in which he went 9-13 with 3 2B’s and 3 HR’s. Ludwick now has 20 extra base hits in 91 AB’s and is hitting .363/.427/.758. He’s slugging .758!!! I don’t even know what to say because he’s hitting so many flipping extra base hits that his .289 BHIP% doesn’t seem ridiculous. Now, we all know this can’t continue but the truth is Ludwick’s always had power, slugging .501 for his minor league career in which he hit 140 HR’s and 183 2B’s in 2780 AB’s. Ludwick’s showing the same strikeout rates that left his minor league average in the .270’s so I’d expect the average to come down in a hard way with a prolonged strikeout laden slump. But he’s also showing an improved BB Rate which shows improved pitch recognition and likely will lead to the continued strong power outputs. He’s a tough “sell-high” candidate since most probably don’t believe this can last, so he’s likely better to hold onto than to deal. But the power is very much for real and Ludwick looks on his way to producing the type of season we expected out of Rick Ankiel coming into the year (lots of power, lots of K’s, middling batting average). Garrett Atkins: Atkins just keeps hitting as he extended his hitting streak to 7 games with a 2-3 performance on Thursday. Atkins has now hit safely in 21 of his last 22 games and has gone hitless in just FIVE games all year long! It’s not surprising to see Atkins hitting, but what is surprising is how much he’s hitting and when he’s hitting. Atkins improved his line to .326/.355/.535, quite an impressive line for a traditional 2nd half hitter (career .827 1st half OPS vs. .880 2nd half OPS). Atkins looks to be on his way to replicating his monstrous 2006 season with the strong start in ’08 but one thing that’s not translating is his EYE. Atkins isn’t walking at all right now with just 7 BB’s in his first 144 AB’s, while his K Rate has remained relatively stable. A quick look at Atkins P/PA (pitchers/plate appearance) shows a drastic drop from his consistent 3.80-3.90 down to 3.39 this season. This suggests Atkins is simply seeing a lot of pitches he likes early in at bats and hacking away. When he’s fouling off pitches he’s getting behind and striking out at the same rate he has in the past but putting more balls in play early in the count. The lack of walks is always a concern for a batter who’s shown great plate discipline in the past, but I think this is more of an indication that Atkins feels good at the plate right now and is seeing a lot to hit rather than a decline in his skill level. Rich Hill: I haven’t been able to touch on Rich Hill and since I have quite a bit of emotion and passion tied up in this situation I feel the need to get this out there. Before I get into this any further it should be known that I feel strongly that Hill’s poor performance is a mental roadblock that stems from a bit of a fragile psyche and an overbearing and impatient manager. Hill’s demotion was utterly ridiculous given the way Lou Pineilla has handled the rest of the Cubs staff, specifically veterans Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis. While Lilly and Marquis have struggled with their control early in the season and struggled lasting deep into games they had yet to be publically threatened through the media like Hill was (After Marquis terrible start Sunday night, Pineilla finally had to address the situation, likely because of the way he handled Hill). From the first struggles Hill had this season, Pineilla began rumbling that he might send Hill to the bullpen. When Hill did have moderate success, Pineilla noted through the media that he was trying to give Hill confidence by pulling him early (Note to Lou: Good idea, but don’t tell the media essentially confirming publicly that YOU the manager have little confidence in the starter). In any game Hill pitched, Pineilla exhibited a quick hook and an itchy dial finger for the bullpen. Any sign of trouble and the bullpen would start. Then Pineilla began skipping Rich Hill’s starts. Having a player struggling with command pitch on 8 days rest is an interesting tactic for a pitcher you’re trying to help find their rhythm. Finally Rich Hill was pulled from a 1-0 game in the first inning with the bases loaded and 2 outs after he walked four of the first six batters. Two days later Jason Marquis walked 3 of the first 5 batters (the same exact situation as Hill) and the bullpen didn’t warm. Marquis was left in and gave up a line drive rocket that luckily found Derrek Lee’s glove. While all the other starters have had a chance to work through their control problems on the mound, Hill has been given a one way ticket to Iowa. For a guy who hasn’t responded well to pressure in the past, breathing down his neck on every start and publicly displaying your lack of confidence in him didn’t seem like a very intelligent way to handle the young player. Regardless, what’s done is done. In Hill’s first start in the minors, he walked just 1 in 5 innings while striking out 5. In my opinion this furthers the opinion that this isn’t a mechanical issue and it’s more in Rich’s head. Don’t get me wrong, the main issue with this situation is Rich Hill’s fragile psyche, but I don’t particularly feel the manager put the player in the best situation to perform here and I worry about Hill’s long-term ability to have success pitching in front of Pineilla’s over-bearing nature. Hopefully Jon Lieber’s horrendous outing on Wednesday shows Pineilla that he needs Hill and if Hill’s going to regain confidence and pitch instead of aiming the ball, as Pineilla has publicly asked him to do, maybe Hill’s confidence would be helped by a manager that actually exhibits confidence in him. While Lieber was getting blown up (I still like Lieber if he gets two starts next week. In fact I like any Cubs starter not named Marquis who gets two starts next week), I went and scooped up Rich Hill in every league he was available. I don’t think this is a mechanical issue that needs to be fixed and I think Hill will prove that with another good start this weekend, after which he’ll be called up immediately. Hill’s value for the rest of the season is one of those things you either believe in or you don’t. While I’m worried Pineilla’s managerial style isn’t conducive to Hill’s success, I do believe in Rich Hill’s talent. So for now I’m hoarding him on the bench and I suggest you do the same. There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning. Members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here. Not a member? Join today. ]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/nl_daily_notes_may_9th_2008.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/nl_daily_notes_may_9th_2008.html Player Commentary Fri, 09 May 2008 06:35:27 -0700 Gavin Floyd: Despite flirting with two no-hitters this year, there is not much to get excited about when looking at Floyd’s skill set, 4.3 K/9 and a 4.1 BB/9. His high FB% of 53% is going to lead to big trouble when pitching in cozy US Cellular Field. He can’t count on a 79% strand rate and a .095 BHIP% to last for too long. This is the perfect time to sell high on Floyd. Fausto Carmona: Despite having a 2.95 ERA, Carmona’s skills have significantly deteriorated from his outstanding rookie season, 2007/2008 K/9’s of 5.7/3.4 and BB/9’s of 2.6/7.0. The incredibly high amount of ground balls that he induces, 67% GB% is helping, but once more of the many balls that he allows to be put in play find holes, .256 BHIP%, he will have major problems unless he can cut down on the walks. The sample size is small but you have to wonder if hitters have learned to recognize his sinker and lay off of it because they know it will fall outside of the strike zone. Keith Foulke: Foulke, who has been out with a neck injury, is expected back today. He has been mentioned as a possible replacement if closer Huston Street is traded. After missing all of last season when he retired due to elbow problems, Foulke is a big injury risk. Although his skills look good so far, 7.7 K/9 and a 1.3 BB/9, the sample size is tiny, just 7 innings, so it is hard to get a read on whether Foulke can stay injury free and maintain these skills over a longer period time. It is not worth stashing Foulke away on a reserve list in mixed leagues hoping that he will get a shot to close. Vincente Padilla: Don’t be fooled by Padilla’s numbers, 5-2 with a 3.02 ERA in 8 starts. He is enjoying an 83% strand rate and .233 BHIP%. In addition, his BB/9 of 3.2 is bordering on trouble and his history suggests he will soon enter the trouble territory, 2005/2006/2007 BB/9’s of 4.5/3.2/3.7. Matt Joyce: The recently called up Joyce could see some decent playing time with the Tigers. He was showing some nice power in Triple-A, 5 home runs and 6 doubles in 97 AB, but his .299 batting average was propped up by a .293 BHIP%. His poor Ct% of 72% and BB/K of .41 in the minors this year means that if you roster him, you may get some pop but will be trading it off for batting average downside. There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning, members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here: www.fantistics.com/baseball00/. Not a member? Join today: www.fantistics.com/join/join.php3 http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/al_player_report_may_9_2008.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/al_player_report_may_9_2008.html Player Commentary Thu, 08 May 2008 12:46:16 -0700 Nick Markakis- BAL- Hot- Since his last multi-hit game on May 2nd, Markakis had been in a 1-for-15 slump that had shaved 28 points from his batting average, dropping it from .284 to .256. He got half of that back yesterday, going 3-for-5 with a run and now stands at .270. One thing that stands out is that he had a dramatic change in strikeout rate. In April, Markakis had 26 Ks in 91 ABs, including 5 in the last 4 games of the month. Then he started out by striking out only twice in the first 6 games of May, covering 23 ABs. Markakis’ April batting average was .286 and he was batting .130 in May before yesterday. The two times he did not get a hit yesterday he struck out, equaling his total of the previous 6 games. It’s just a guess, but maybe Markakis was doing some sort of experiment to try and cut down on his strikeouts that may have affected another part of his swing. Dallas Braden- OAK- Hot- For Braden, yesterday was a day full of irony. He ended up getting credited with the win when Mark Ellis hit a walk off homer in the 10th inning against the Orioles. This was after Braden threw 2-1/3 shutout innings, allowing only a walk and striking out 2. It was his second career major league win. The first was also against the Orioles, in Braden’s major league debut last year. The first bits of irony kick in here because Braden is likely to be sent to AAA when Keith Foulke is activated from the DL in the next couple of days. So, not only could Braden be sent down after pitching in a very effective outing but it will be after beating the only team he has defeated. To add a further bit of irony, he will probably be sent down before the A’s go to face Texas, which means that Dallas will not be going with the team to Dallas. Somewhere in this are the makings of an existentialist stage play. Jered Weaver- LAA- Cold- Weaver was extremely inefficient last night, needing 82 pitches to get 10 outs. His strike percentage was 62% and he only walked on in his 3-1/3 IP, so the problem was not an inability to find the strike zone. Rather, it was that Weaver was like a waiter in an Italian restaurant, serving meatballs to the KC batters. Hitters have a .294 average against Weaver this year. Some of it can be attributed to bad luck, but his BHIP% has been falling (down to .299). Weaver’s strikeout and K ratios are very close to those of 2007, but this year, instead of having an ERA (3.91) more than half a run lower than expected (4.49), the numbers are close to the same (4.36 ERA compared to 4.27 XERA before last night). This indicates that his ERA is more closely reflecting his underlying numbers. Besides waiting for luck even out, Weaver needs to help himself by reclaiming his strikeout ratio of his impressive rookie campaign in order to boost his success. Jose Guillen- KC- Hot- Guillen added 20 points to his batting average last night by going 3-for-3 with 2 doubles and 2 runs scored. He is still 15 points south of the Mendoza line, but maybe this is the start of a much needed regression to the mean. Guillen has been pounded by a .111 BHIPx. His production should bounce back. Shawn Marcum- TOR- Hot- Marcum has failed to throw a quality start only once in 7 outings this season. However, an extremely low BHIP% of .181 may indicate that his success so far this year has been highly luck dependent. Marcum did have some very good signs in last night’s game, though, striking out 9 batters for the second straight start and only allowing one walk, while throwing 70 of his 110 pitches for strikes. Marcum may not be as good as his early production numbers, but he is showing improvement over past years. There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning. Members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here. Not a member? Join today. ]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/al_player_spotlight_may_8_2008.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/al_player_spotlight_may_8_2008.html Player Commentary Thu, 08 May 2008 07:24:22 -0700 Ryan Howard - Its almost comical at this point. Remember those kids in little league who hit 9th and struck-out every single time they got to the plate? Watching Ryan Howard reminds me of those kids (no offense to any of those people who may now be subscribers). Here are some K figures from Howard's 2008 season that are simply startling. (1) He has struck out at least once in 6 out of the 7 games in May, (2) He has struck out 3-times in one game 5 times since the start of the season, (3) He is averaging a strikeout per every 2.9 trips to the play, and (4) He is on pace for a record-shattering 233 strikeouts. The best thing you can do for now is sit, wait, laugh (if you have a sense of humor), and hope he turns it around soon. The good news is that his HR/AB is still sub-20.0, but for his original fantasy value, it should be much better as we expect a 40+ HR performance. Brad Penny - As Vin Scully said on the Dodgers broadcast yesterday, "That closes the book on Penny and its not a best-seller." With just yesterday's game against the Mets, Penny's ERA rose from 3.19 to 4.79. So what happened? He gave up 10 hits, 10 ER, and 3 BB in 4.2 IP, bringing his WHIP to 1.47 and H/9 to 10.0. While this is just one start and anyone could have a blow-up, this is the third time he has given up 10 hits in a start this year! He's only 3-for-8 in quality starts and his K/BB is just 1.29 with a K/9 of 4.29. There's nothing good going on for Penny owners right now and you may consider keeping him benched next week in his first start against the Brewers before deciding to pitch him against the Angels later in the week. John Maine - A great sign for Mets fans and Maine owners as John Maine hurls another quality start and earns his 4th win of the season. Granted, the run support (12 runs) didn't hurt, but Maine cruised to victory against the Dodgers by hurling 8.1 IP on just 4 hits, 1 ER, 2BB, and 4 K's. He has given up 2 ER or less in each of his starts except for his 2008 debut (where he gave up 4 ER to the Braves in Atlanta). While Johan Santana gets most of the attention in NY, Maine deserves as much attention as one of the few bright-spots in 2008 for the Mets. His K/9 of 7.07 combined with a HR/9 of 0.64 keeps his value rising as he settles into a comfortable #2 role in the rotation. A 2-start pitcher in Week 7 has him facing the Nationals and the Yankees. Lastings Milledge - Milledge has been a disappointment in his first 5 weeks of full-time production. After hitting a homerun in just his 2nd game with the Nationals on March 31st, Milledge has gone homer-less since, totaling 109 AB without a dinger. In April, Milledge hit just .266 with an OPS of .726 and FPI of 0.52. His first week of May has been even more disappoint, hitting just .217 with no power and no run/RBI production. He's 3-for-6 in stolen bases, so he is running as expected, but with an OBP of .326, his opportunities are fewer than forecasted. There's upside here as Milledge settles into an everyday role with the Nationals. I wouldn't be shocked to see him go on a HR tear at some point with a preseason 20/20 prediction still possible. There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning. Members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here. Not a member? Join today. ]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/nl_player_spotlight_may_8_2008.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/nl_player_spotlight_may_8_2008.html Thu, 08 May 2008 06:47:45 -0700 American League 30 Austin Jackson NYY OF B+ 23:17 K:BB and 82% CT% are fine, but where's the pop? 0 HR in 125 at-bats. 43 Jose Tabata NYY OF B Discipline issues and batting just .232. Is 8-for-15 in last 4 games however. 44 Beau Mills CLE 1B B The bad: .233 AVG. The good: 20:24 K:BB. .290 AVG though in last 9 games. 46 Ben Revere MIN OF B Nice debut: .432 with 3:3 K:BB in 37 at-bats. .236 ISO isn't sustainable, but it's good to see. 49 John Shelby CHW OF B College guy with intriguing tools and savvy. Son of the ex-big leaguer with the same name. 15 Fautino de los Santos OAK SP A- Shut down with a sore elbow. Hopefully nothing serious, but maybe it explains his 5.87 ERA. 19 Jordan Walden LAA SP B+ Has been so-so in last three starts, but he's generating a lot of GBs and has great stuff. 20 Adam Miller CLE SP B+ 11 hits in 3.2 innings last time out is a huge concern. Hope the elbow is okay. 25 Ian Kennedy NYY SP B+ Awful for the Yankees as he wasn't commanding his fringy stuff. 7.1 S.O. innings in 1st AAA start. 27 Luke Hochevar KC SP B+ 4.86 ERA in three starts. Not sure if he's going to stick, but he'll make 20 big league starts this year. National League 14 Andrew McCutcheon PIT OF A- .360 in last 6 games and .290/.389/.508 overall with 6 HR and 9 SB. Time to trade Bay or Nady. 15 Geovany Soto CHC C A- No longer a true "prospect" like others on this list. Will drop off list later this month. 17 Chase Headley SD OF A- Hit just .242 in April, but now .412 in last eight games. Should be SD LF by midseason at worst. 22 Matt Antonelli SD 2B B+ 4-for-12 with HR in last 3 but still just .196 on the year. 20:19 K:BB does give us some hope. 23 Jason Heyward ATL OF B+ Doesn't turn 19 until Aug. .307/.345/.433 with 8 SB. Power will come. 7 Homer Bailey CIN SP A 23 K in last 20 IP. 2.72 ERA in 7 GS and shouldn't be too far from replacing Matt Belisle. 10 Jarrod Parker ARI SP A- It's not fair how much great pitching the Dbacks have. One run or less in all five starts for Parker. 21 Carlos Carrasco PHI SP B+ Got beat up on 4/23 but rebounded to win last two starts. Overall - 39:14 K:BB in 36 IP. 24 Tommy Hanson ATL SP B+ May be a late-season call-up at this rate - 0.90 ERA, 49:11 K:BB in 40 IP. 36 Jair Jurrjens ATL SP B 2.08 ERA in his last four starts. Seems he's up to stay. ]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/prospect_spreadsheet_updates_may_8_2008.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/prospect_spreadsheet_updates_may_8_2008.html Player Commentary Wed, 07 May 2008 23:53:48 -0700 Unfavorable Matchups, American League Joe Mauer Minnesota (6 for 15, .400 CS%): 4 against Texas (Ian Kinsler, David Murphy), 3 against Detroit (Carlos Guillen, Curtis Granderson) Kurt Suzuki Oakland (7 for 20, .350 CS%): 3 against Tampa (Carl Crawford, BJ Upton, Jason Bartlett), 3 against Boston (Jacoby Ellsbury, Coco Crisp, Julio Lugo, Dustin Pedroia) Ivan Rodriguez Detroit (5 for 16, .313 CS%): 3 against Seattle (Ichiro Suzuki, Adrian Beltre), 3 against Minnesota (Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young) Favorable Matchups, American League John Buck Kansas City (1 for 15, .067 CS%): 4 against Boston (Jacoby Ellsbury, Coco Crisp, Julio Lugo, Dustin Pedroia), 3 against Toronto (Alex Rios) Jason Varitek Boston (2 for 12, .167% CS%): 4 against Kansas City (Joey Gathright), 3 against Oakland (Rajai Davis) AJ Pierzynski CHW (4 for 21, .190 CS%): 3 against Cleveland (Grady Sizemore, Franklin Gutierrez), 3 against LAA (Chone Figgins, Erick Aybar) Unfavorable Matchups, National League Paul Bako Cincinnati (8 for 18, .444 CS%): 3 against LAD (Juan Pierre, Matt Kemp, Rafael Furcal), 4 against San Diego (Tadahito Iguchi) Jason Kendall Milwaukee (10 for 24, .417 CS%): 3 against Pittsburgh (Nate McLouth, Jason Bay), 3 against Washington (Felipe Lopez, Lastings Milledge) Geovany Soto CHC (9 for 24, .409 CS%): 3 against Houston (Michael Bourn, Kaz Matsui, Lance Berkman), 3 against Pittsburgh (Nate McLouth, Jason Bay) Favorable Matchups, National League Josh Bard San Diego (6 for 35, .171 CS%): 3 against St. Louis (Skip Schumaker), 4 against Cincinnati (Brandon Phillips, Ryan Freel, Corey Patterson) Chris Snyder Arizona (3 for 15, .200 CS%): 3 against Florida (Hanley Ramirez), 3 against Atlanta (Kelly Johnson) Yadier Molina St. Louis (4 for 19, .211 CS%): 3 against San Diego (Tadahito Iguchi), 3 against LAD (Juan Pierre, Matt Kemp, Rafael Furcal) Pickup Recommendations: Joey Gathright: Gathright is still available in many leagues. He is a must own in AL-only and deep mixed leagues. An injury to any of the Royals starting outfielders makes him a factor in shallower mixed leagues. Eugenio Velez: At this point Velez, 0/7/.233, is not worth using in mixed leagues, but with 4 triples and 7 steals, he should be owned in all NL-only leagues. If he can learn to walk a little more, 4.6% BB%, and receives regular playing time, he would be worth using in mixed leagues. Scott Podsednik: With a good, crowded outfield in Colorado, Podsednik’s playing time will be limited, but when he gets in there, he is running, a perfect 6 for 6 in just 48 PA. The lack of playing time limits his value to NL-only leagues. Corey Patterson: Due to a seemingly slow start, 4/11/200 in 90 AB, Patterson has been dropped in many leagues, but he is suffering from an absurdly low .085 BHIP%. If the Reds stick with, he is worth owning in all formats. Coco Crisp: Jacoby Ellsbury is severely limiting Crisp’s playing, but when he plays, Crisp is running well, 5 for 5 in steals. For now his value is limited to AL-only leagues, but a trade that would land him a full-time position would make him worth using in mixed leagues. Rajai Davis: The A’s outfield is very crowded and playing time could really dry up if Travis Buck comes back from his injury or the A’s decide to call up hot prospect Carlos Gonzalez, but for the time being Davis can be used in AL-only leagues. The A’s are not known to be a running team and Davis has only attempted one steal in 11 games with A’s, but since it is his speed that drives his value, it is doubtful that the A’s would have acquired and not have him run. Jason Bartlett: Bartlett has been a disappointment so far this year, 0/6/.243 with 4 steals in 5 tries, but last year he swiped 23 bases in 26 attempts and would have had more if he didn’t injure his hamstring. If he can regain some of the plate patience that he exhibited last year, 2007/2008 BB%’s of 8.9%/2.7%, he may be able to take better advantage of his speed. There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning, members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here: www.fantistics.com/baseball00/. Not a member? Join today: www.fantistics.com/join/join.php3 http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/stolen_base_report_for_the_week_of_may_12th_to_18th.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/stolen_base_report_for_the_week_of_may_12th_to_18th.html Fantasy Strategy Wed, 07 May 2008 18:37:50 -0700 Grady Sizemore – Sizemore had a monster 2006 season in which he had an amazing 92 extra base hits, an average of .57 extra base hits per game. Sizemore was solid last season, but even in that year and so far this year he is yet to show the same explosiveness at the plate. Last year he had 29 less extra base hits. Currently, he is averaging only .33 extra base hits per game, after going 0 - 3 last night. Interestingly, Sizemore’s distribution of line drives, ground balls, and fly balls has been virtually identical this year and last year as it was to that 2006 season. Meanwhile Sizemore’s EYE has actually improves. Up to .65 last year, from .52 in ’06, and it is at .78 so far on this season. So, it is very intriguing as to why Sizemore’s extra base hits have declined. Maybe other pitchers are learning to stay away from his hot zones, turning some of his doubles into singles, but for now I am buying low on Sizemore, figuring his final stat line will end up somewhere between his 2006 and 2007 levels. Ryan Garko – Garko might make for a nice buy low player. It is highly unlikely that he, and the Cleveland offense as a whole, will stay this cold for the entire season. Through his first 27 games, Garko was hit .237, but that was in large part due to a .208 singles average. The past two seasons Garko’s singles averages were .268 and .263, and since Garko’s EYE has actually improved quite a bit this year (to 1 from .36), there is no explanation for his dip in singles average other than bad luck. Also, Garko’s HR rate is a mere 1.9. It was 4 last season and 3.6 the year before. Garko should go on a hot streak sometime soon, as his singles average and HR rate should start to return to their normal levels soon. Andy Sonnanstine – Sonnanstine had rough outing, giving up 10 hits and 4 earned runs in 6 innings of work versus the Blue Jays. However, it was good enough to improve his record to 5-1. Sonnanstine has developed into a serviceable fantasy pitcher in AL-only leagues. Most of his success is a result of excellent control. Sonnanstine is allowing just 1.86 walks per 9 innings pitched. Many people probably wrote Sonnanstine off, after he posted a 5.86 ERA last season, but he was rather unlucky. His BABIP was .327, and that was reflected in the fact that his expected ERA was over a full run lower than that terribly high ERA of 5.86. Sonnanstine, if he improves his K rate to what it was last year (.51 this season, .71 last season) could very well post an ERA in the low 4’s and a WHIP around 1.25. Also, remember, that Sonnanstine’s ERA and WHIP (4.13 and 1.16) reflect two very rough starts versus the Yankees. Gavin Floyd – Now might be the perfect time to sell high on Gavin Floyd. Last night, Floyd, for the second time this year, flirted with a no hitter, until Joe Mauer hit a double with one out in the 9th. Floyd’s final line was 8.3 IP with 4 strikeouts and 3 walks. He also allowed an unearned run. You hate to discredit a guy too much after a performance like that, but Floyd continues to live on the edge. Tony mentioned Floyd’s fly ball tendencies, and 11 of Floyd’s outs came via fly outs. Yet, Floyd’s HR:FB% (7.8%) is almost half of his career average (14.8%). When that number rises, along with his BABIP (.171 and sure to be lower after last night), Floyd is going to run into a few tough outings, and it would not surprise me to see his ERA above 4 before long.]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/nl_player_spotlight_may_7th_2008.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/nl_player_spotlight_may_7th_2008.html Player Commentary Wed, 07 May 2008 03:52:17 -0700 Doug Davis: Less than a month removed from surgery to remove a cancerous thyroid, Davis threw a simulated game on Monday and is expected to make the first of two rehab starts on Saturday. The two rehab starts will give a good indication of the level of Davis’ strength. Even at full strength, Davis’ control is worrisome, 2005/2006/2007 BB/9’s 3.8/4.5/4.4. Ryan Howard: While his power is slightly off, 6 home runs and 3 doubles in 142 PA, it is his batting average that is really suffering, .169. With his Ct% remaining at dangerously low levels, 2007/2008 #’s of 62%/61%, Howard will need to bring his power up to previous levels, 2006/2007 HR’s of 58/47, and have a BHIP% north of .260, 2006/2007/2008 BHIP%’s of .309/.268/.175, to not hurt a team in the batting average category. Justin Upton: Upton’s power, 13 extra-base hits in 131 PA, and plate patience, 10.2 BB%, at such a young age, he doesn’t turn 21 until August 25th, makes him a superstar in the making. However, with a 73% Ct% and a .380 BHIP% expect some downside in the near future from his .348 batting average. Adam Kennedy: With a .333 batting average in 78 AB, Kennedy is earning playing time in St. Louis. His 86% Ct% and 9.3% BB% look good, but be aware that his is not hitting for any power, 0 home and 3 doubles, and his .349 BHIP% points to some good fortune that will not last. Also, it has been a few years, since Kennedy has been an effective basestealer, 24 for 37 over the last three seasons, so don’t expect him to be a good speed source. Corey Patterson: Patterson is playing better than his .200 batting average would indicate. He is making excellent contact, 92% Ct%, hitting for power, 12 extra-base hits in 90 AB, and stealing bases, 5 for 7. A ridiculously low .085 BHIP% is holding down his average. If the Reds stick with him, look for some nice batting average upside. There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning, members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here: www.fantistics.com/baseball00/. Not a member? Join today: www.fantistics.com/join/join.php3 http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/nl_player_spotlight_may_7_2008.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/nl_player_spotlight_may_7_2008.html Player Commentary Tue, 06 May 2008 20:29:27 -0700 C: Chris Snyder I’ve written about Snyder at length during this season but fantasy owners still seem cautious as Snyder’s owned in just 1.3% of ESPN.com leagues and just 30% of CBS leagues. Snyder was a popular pre-season sleeper pick after hitting .284/.366/.503 in the 2nd half but has fallen out of favor with a slow start, hitting just .247/.374/.452. But while the actual numbers are falling, the indicators are rising as Snyder’s improved his EYE from .60 to .68 (rising 3 years in a row), his RBI Rate from 12.8 to 17.1, and his extra base hit rate from 10% to 13.3%. He’s making improvements as a player and has the benefit of playing in a good home park (113 park factor) and in a vastly improved lineup. I have him as a Top 10 catcher and just outside my Top 5 the rest of the way and he’s not being treated as such. He should be owned in every league so if you’re not an owner of Russell Martin, Victor Martinez, Geovany Soto, Joe Mauer, or Brian McCann you should consider adding Snyder immediately. 1B: Matt Stairs When the Blue Jays decided to release Frank Thomas, Adam Lind was the main player touched on as we, the fantasy analyst, tend to get a bit excited at the thought of a new player getting called up into a spot. It’s like having a new toy to play with, but the truth is sometimes that old toy is just as good if not better. Like a good game of RBI Baseball or Tecmo SuperBowl! And that’s what Matt Stairs is to the Toronto Blue Jays, he’s RBI Baseball. Heck Stairs might even be old enough to be in a version of RBI Baseball, but regardless there’s one thing this 40 year old has always been able to do throughout his career and that’s Hit. Stairs has posted a solid .847 OPS throughout his career but hasn’t found consistent playing time because he’s really out of position anywhere on the field. The good news is with the Big Hurt gone Stairs doesn’t need a position to play! Last year in just 357 AB’s Stairs hit 21 HR’s and for his career has hit a HR about every 19 AB’s. Project that rate over 500 AB’s and Stairs is a 25+ HR candidate! While he’s not in a particularly tremendous Blue Jays lineup (the east coast Padres), he is hitting in the middle of it which should help him to reach 75-80 Runs and 80-85 RBI’s. He’s basically an older version of Ryan Garko with less upside but unlike Garko he’s owned in just 7.4% of ESPN league and 14% of CBS leagues. 2B: Eugenio Velez There are two things we look for in fantasy when trying to identify diamonds in the rough: Talent and Opportunity. Well Velez has one of those, I’ll let you figure out which one, and he sure can run having stolen 50+ bases in each of his last two minor league seasons. Unfortunately for Velez, as the saying goes, he can’t steal first base and he’s not much of a hitter having posted a .743 OPS at age 25 in AA. But he does have tremendous speed and is making decent enough contact and is hitting enough Ground Balls (59%) that his current .232 batting average should be on the rise and settle in closer to the .270-.280 range. He won’t offer anything in the power department or the RBI category, but he has a decent chance to score 70+ Runs and swipe 30-40 bases. The swipes are the key because that many SB’s can make a big impact in deeper leagues and as such Velez should be owned in more than the 1.8% of ESPN and 14% of CBS leagues he’s currently owned in. SS: Ronny Cedeno With Velez it was all about opportunity, with Ronny Cedeno (or ONEDEC as my beloved friends at Bleed Cubbie Blue have nicknamed him, because ya know… he’s “turned it around”) it’s all about talent. Cedeno was an all glove no hit guy for much of his minor league career but he was always usually young for his level and in 2005 he began to show signs with the bat posting a .355/.403/.518 line in 245 AAA AB’s. He then was given an everyday job in the debacle that was the 2006 Chicago Cubs where he didn’t hit at all (.610 OPS) before returning to AAA last season and posting a .959 OPS in another 287 AB’s. So coming into this season he had mastered the AAA level and early on in the 2008 campaign he’s showing significant improvements at handling major league pitching in limited playing time. Cedeno’s hit .383/.473/.574 in 47 AB’s while showing significant improvement in his EYE (.88) while showing an impressive BB Rate (12.3%) and a reduced K Rate (15.1%), while also making big improvements in his power (6 2B’s, 1 HR in 47 AB’s). The only thing holding Cedeno back from making an impact in deeper leagues is Lou Pineilla. Pineilla has fallen in love with the grittiness and scrappiness of both Ryan Theriot and Mike Fontenot, but Cedeno was given the start last night and Pineilla indicated Cedeno’s performance would dictate his future playing time (interesting since this hadn’t been the case before…), so maybe there’s a shot for Cedeno at more consistent playing time going forward. Cedeno’s also got dual eligibility in leagues with 2B as another option so if speed isn’t your primary need, I actually like Cedeno more than Velez. Given his playing time situation its understandable that Cedeno’s only owned in just 6% of CBS leagues and 20% of ESPN leagues. 3B: Blake DeWitt One of the more under-looked and impressive stories of the 2008 season has been Blake DeWitt’s ability to handle the Dodgers starting 3B position. Coming into the season DeWitt had less than 300 AB’s A-Ball and had posted an underwhelming career minor league line of .279/.333/.444, but he was widely regarded as a solid prospect and his peripherals back up his strong early season performance. DeWitt’s shown tremendous plate discipline posting an EYE of 1.00 which is extremely impressive for a player of his experience and showed adequate power with an extra base hit rate of just under 9%. DeWitt’s staying power worries me a little bit not only because of the pressure for playing time brought on once Andy LaRoche returns but because I’m unsure if he’ll be able to continue this level of performance based on his minor league history. However, all of the current peripherals suggest he’s legitimate and while hitting in a deep and hot Dodgers lineup he should offer nice run production (on pace for 80+ runs and RBIs). DeWitt’s current only owned 3.3% of ESPN leagues and 7% of CBS leagues. OF: Moises Alou I’m cheating a little bit on this one since Alou is owned in 16% of ESPN leagues and 27% of CBS leagues, but I feel like Alou can make enough of an impact in all formats that these numbers will rise into the 80’s and 90’s within 2 weeks, so I’m focusing on him. Alou’s a remarkable talent whose old and injury prone and thus often gets overlooked by fantasy owners, but when he’s in the lineup he offers consistently strong production. He’s posted an OPS above .900 in 7 of the last 9 seasons. These are his age 32-41 seasons and he’s producing at an elite level. He’s hitting in a Mets lineup that should produce plenty of run-scoring opportunities and he provides a nice combination of good power skills with a great batting average as he’s hit a HR every 20 AB’s and hit over .310 during the last 3 seasons. He can be had on the cheap right now and makes for a very nice OF option in all formats. Two-Start SP: Jon Lieber I’ve typically finished these Value Pick columns off with a 2 start pitcher recommendation for the following week since I know many fantasy owners play in leagues that value 2 start pitchers or streaming starters, so this week let’s focus on the newest member of the Cubs rotation Jon Lieber. Lieber gets two extremely favorable matchups next week at home against San Diego and Pittsburgh. Both of these opponents are basically running out AAAA offenses right now and Lieber’s the kind of spot starter I like to use since he rolls a lot of ground balls and doesn’t walk many batters, thus he’s usually pretty safe. Lieber doesn’t strike too many batters out anymore but he should be good for 3-4 per start while posting solid ratio numbers and hopefully some W’s. Lieber’s only owned in just 13% of CBS leagues and just 1.2% of ESPN leagues. He’s a nice two-start option readily available for you to scoop up for next week’s favorable matchups. ]]> http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/first_pitch_may_7th_value_picks.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/first_pitch_may_7th_value_picks.html Player Commentary Tue, 06 May 2008 19:35:56 -0700 Delmon Young - One of the biggest Delmon Young supporters I know asked me yesterday about including him in a deal, so the time may very well have come to put the full-court press on his owners in your respective leagues. Young's poor plate discpline is certainly hampering his development, but he's still just 22. His walk and strikeout rates are both still in the poor category, but they have both improved thus far this season (1:24 BB:AB last year, 1:16 this year; 1:5.1 K:AB last year, 1:5.4 this year). He's running more, just not hitting for any power yet. It's possible that he turns into someone like, well, a right-handed Jacque Jones, and that's the downside. He's definitely worth having if his owner has soured on him, particularly if you're building for the future. Wladimir Balentien - Balentien is a tough guy to figure, as he has some very positive traits (excellent power, plus speed, seemingly improved discipline the past two years), but also some severely negative ones (high K rate and its corresponding effeect on AVG, poor fit for home park). Fittingly, he's hit a couple of homers and struck out a whole passel (8, to be precise) of times in his first 21 AB's, and he looks a bit raw (even for a 23 year old). Still, the M's have virtually no other options, so they're going to trot him out there pretty much every day and see what happens. Expect more of what you've seen: modest AVG, good pop, and maybe a couple of steals thrown in once he gets comfortable (10-15/yr in the minors). He could provide league average production possibly, but if he ever left Seattle I'd be a bit more pleased with his prospects. Dana Eveland - Eveland (typically) struggled with his command yesterday, but he battled his way through seven innings while allowing only three singles to go with teh four walks and four K's. He's been about as good as you can expect a fifth starter to be, keeping the ball down (one HR allowed through 41 IP) and striking out a reasonable number of batters (about 6.5 per 9) so that the excess walks (approx. 4 per 9) aren't killing him. His control has actually been a touch better than this in the minors, so a bit of improvement wouldn't even be out of the question, although I would imagine that a few more hits are going to start falling in to offset that. All in all, he's only been a slight bit better than I expected in the first place, so there's no reason to think he can't continue to be a productive back-end starter. Emil Brown - At age 33, Brown is probably in decline from a pretty low peak to begin with, but he's knocking in a ton of runs for the A's thus far (and at opportune times, to boot) so his stock has been back on the rise. His strikeouts are down substantially so far this year (almost cut in half), so it's understandable that his AVG would be back up to its historical norm. The power is back a bit from last year's precipitous drop, which you'd also expect. All in all, he's basically a replacement-level corner OF bat that's having a bit of luck knocking people in. He was a nice story a few years ago, but the thing about free talent is that it's usually only free for a short period of time, and you need to know when to unload it just like you need to know when to pick it up in the first place. For what the A's needed this year, he is fitting the bill thus far, but I wouldn't be surprised if he weren't starting by year's end, and I'd certainly be surprised if they brought him back for a second year. He isn't worthwhile for fantasy purposes except in the deepest of leagues. Dustin McGowan - McGowan was masterful last night, limiting the White Sox to just three singles and a double over 7 1/3 innings, striking out six in the 1-0 win. Since the aberration in Tampa (seven walks), McGowan has looked terrific in stifling both colors of Sox over the past week, allowing eight hits, one run, and one walk against 11 K's in 14 2/3 innings. His ratios are all virtually identical to last year thus far in 2008 (expect for a slight decline in HR/9), but his ERA, which was higher than you would have expected it to be last year given the peripherals, is down about a run and a half. Somewhere between the two is where expectations should lie, making him a bonafide #2 starter in most formats. http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/al_player_spotlight_10.html http://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2008/05/al_player_spotlight_10.html Player Commentary Tue, 06 May 2008 08:26:21 -0700