Membership has it's privileges, select one of our plans and get the charts updated with the 2008 Year to Date Statistics, as well as year round trend analysis.
Pitching Charts Defined
Balls Hit into Play Success Rate (BHIP%) : defined as the number of balls hit into play that are registered as hits against a pitcher. Balls Hit into Play Success %: defined as the number of balls hit into play that are registered as hits against a pitcher. Much has been written on the correlation between balls hit into play and the pitcher’s ability to coax them in their favor. Similar to the research conducted by Voros McCracken, Fantistics internal analysis of the topic leads us to the following conclusion: Overall, pitchers do not have control over balls hit into play, as it is more a function of the batter's ability. However (in disagreement to the McCracken study), when you only consider the top echelon of hurlers, there is a significant correlation which indicates that some pitchers, particularly successful ones, do have influence over balls hit into play. Hits allowed is a category which is directly tied to many major pitching categories including Wins, WHIP, & ERA. So understanding this indicator can be a valuable tool in forecasting success. In our study, we considered the top 30 pitchers (the criterion being that they must have a 4 year track record) whose Deserved Wins (QS *.74) were above 13 (we are basically taking the top 30 pitchers who have been around for at least 4 years), the results show a fairly strong 3 year correlation (.31, .58, .37). However, when taken as a whole (top 150 pitchers) the correlation is barely existent (.18, .12, .08). So what does this all mean? If we can identify the pitchers who do not have control over balls hit into play (inconsistent yearly BHIP% results) then we can extrapolate which pitchers were stricken by bad luck or good luck in the most recent season. Using this information, along with the law of averages, we can then predict which pitchers are due for a rebound/drop the following season. Additionally, by identifying pitchers who have shown a consistent BHIP% in the past, extreme deviations in the most recent year could indicate an erosion of skills, injury, or conversely a lucky period. The average BHIP% given up by pitchers is .294 (given up by the top 130 starters) As an example, Chris Capuano's BHIP% jumped to .324 in 2007 after sitting below league average in 2006 (.292), 2005 (.267), 2004 (.292). At the same time his K/Inning ratio was within his normal range, an indication that Capuano was health in his cummulative starts. Therefore Capuano was likely a victim of bad luck on balls hit into play. This is one of the reasons we are expecting Chris Capuano to have a bounce back season in 2008. During the 2008 season we'll utilize these graphs to identify trends that are likely to reverse themselves. These trends will be highlighted in our periodic player recommendation reports.
Fantasy Value / Fantasy Production Indicator (FPI)
Fantasy Value is the relative value of each player based on a 5x5 Rotisserie team with a budget of $260. This is not a draft value. Seeing a player's Fantasy Value decline might only be an indication of a playing time reduction. We consider FPI (see below) a more useful indicator as it does not consider playing time.
Fantasy Production Indicator (FPI) gives us the player's quality per inning pitched. It considers some easily attainable statistics to produce a numeric value which is highly correlated to fantasy production. Stat categories within this indicator include and are valued accordingly for pitchers : ( IP +4.5, H -2.5, HR -6, W +3, L -3, BB -1 ) These categories are then divided by the player’s innings pitched.
Similarly with the pitchers, FPI is one of the top indicators of Fantasy worth, although WHIP and OOBP (Opposition On Base Percentage) also make for excellent stand alone indicators. However, when you measure the relationship between fantasy value and these other indicators on their own (ERA, WHIP, Quality Start %, Opposition Batting Average) FPI is the leader of the pack.
FPI
Equivalent
Player Example
> 2.00+
Fantasy God
Johan Santana
1.80-2.00
Super Star
Roy Oswalt
1.60-1.80
Fantasy Star
Chris Carpenter
1.40-1.60
Above Average
Bronson Arroyo
1.20-1.40
Average
Kevin Millwood
1.00-1.20
Below Average
Kenny Rogers
< 1.00
Fantasy Fool
Kris Benson
Expected ERA (XERA) depicts a pitcher’s "True ERA" as it bases its expectation on factors within a pitcher's control. These factors include Hits, Walks, Home Runs allowed and K’s. When you consider the inequity with the ERA calculation, specifically related to errors and base runners inherited/left, many including myself consider XERA to be a more precise gauge of ability.
Expected ERA is a term coined by 2 stat researchers (Dwight Gill and Tad Reeve), which developed the following mathematical formula ((.575 * H/9 ) + (.94 * HR/9 ) + (.28 * BB/9 ) - (.01 * K/9 ) - Normalizing Factor). The normalizing factor is based on the league (typically in the .270 and .285 range)
The best way to use XERA is to compare it to the actual ERA. Using the delta between the two indicators we can make observations as to whether the pitcher’s ERA was a true gauge of his ability for the given period. For example, in 2004 Pedro Martinez surprised us with a 3.90 ERA, yet his expected ERA was .44 points lower. His rebound in 2005, was easy to see in advance thanks to this tool.
Overall, based on the MLB pitcher population, XERA and ERA are very close to the same. On average, for the top 150 pitchers, both hover around 4.00.
Runners Stranded Percentage: The percentage of batters that reach base but do not score (more specifically, are not credited to the pitcher’s Earned Runs). The average stranded percentage for starters is .71. Pitchers with Stranded Percentages of about .75 usually have successful ERA and Win totals. Typically, veteran pitchers work around good hitters and bear down on the hitters whom they believe they can retire. A perfect example would be Brandon Webb. Webb's Stranded Percentage is typically between .74 and .78. Pitchers with Stranded Percentages below .68 typically have difficulty maintaining a good ERA.
Deserved Wins: We define Deserved Wins as Quality Starts * .74. Typically a pitcher wins 74% of his Quality Starts (defined as a start where the pitcher has gone at least 6 innings and has given up 3 runs or fewer). Using this indicator we can determine if the pitcher was unfortunate or fortunate in his pitching Win totals. Another consideration is pitchers who may be stuck on a poor offensive team; their deserved wins totals will be less than their Win totals. Conversely a pitcher on a good offensive team may have actual win totals which may exceed his deserved totals. Depending on the quality of the offensive unit, this could account for a 4-5 win swing or 2-3 wins above or below expectations.
From a forecasting standpoint, we can forecast a pitcher’s win totals the following season based on the improvement or degradation of his team support. At the same time keep an eye on the players who were unusually lucky in their totals. Consider the LA Angels' Matt Cain who had 9 fewer wins in 2007 versus his deserved win totals, or Chad Billingsly who had 5 more wins than his deserved win totals.
Ballpark Production Indicator measures the 2 year historical run output at the home stadiums of each player. The benchmark median is 100, for a batter it's an advantage to be home at a park above 100, while the opposite is true for the pitchers.
The Projected 2008 team production indicator measures the quality of each team's starting position players (which means just the opening day batters in the lineup). As we all know, pitchers are susceptible when playing for a team with a lackluster offense (Wins, Innings Pitched, & Strikeouts are all at stake). Conversely mediocre pitchers can become serviceable when playing for a team that produces offensively. Although it's not commonly considered, but a fact, batters who play on an offensively productive team see an increase in their own offensive production (categories greatly affected include ABs, AVG, Runs, & RBIs). In summary, the median benchmark is 100, anything above that for pitchers and batters is considered favorable.
Forecast Risk considers the jump in FPI
