Posted for members in August of 2007

Troy Patton – Astros

Starter – Throws Left – 6-1, 185 – 9/3/1985

The Astros debuted one of their top pitching prospects last night against the Pirates. Troy Patton went 5.1 IP allowing the Bucs 3 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks while striking out 4. All three runs came on homers by Jose Bautista who got to Patton twice.

Troy is the entire package. He is a gifted left-handed pitcher with a bulldog mentally and a baseball IQ. The fact that he is left-handed is of course valuable, especially when you appreciate that he is a left-hander with velocity and scary good life. But he is also tough on right-handers as that life on his fastball tends to bore in on RHHs.

This year in AAA Troy held hitters to a .246 OBA with LHHs hitting .220 while RHHH hit .254. But RHHs slugged just .362 off of him while LHH slugged .439. His splits were not as impressive in AA this year (.173/.245 OBA/SLG vs. RHH, .283/.445 vs. RHH) but it looks like he may have found some things at Dell Diamond.

Troy throws in the low-to-mid 90s and backs his fastball with a strong change with good fading action. That also helps him deal with RHHs. Patton’s change has good downward action but he often telegraphs it with a different arm angle than the rest of his offerings.

Troy is sound mechanically and he repeats most deliveries well. His “bulldog” side can lead to stubbornness at times and he will often stick to what he wants to do when he can get a hitter out easier by doing what the batter doesn’t want to do.

Troy has #2 starter potential and he is ready to start in the big leagues. Although last night’s start could very well be a one-off, Troy will be part of the September  picture in Houston.

Long Term Fantasy Grade - B

Seas Lvl   W  L   ERA    IP  K/9 BB/9 HR/9   AVG  WHIP

2006 A+    7  7  2.93 101.1  9.1  3.3  0.4  .244  1.27

2006 AA    2  5  4.37  45.1  7.4  2.6  1.2  .273  1.35

2007 AA    6  6  2.99 102.1  6.0  2.9  0.9  .250  1.26

2007 AAA   4  2  4.59  49.0  4.6  2.0  0.9  .242  1.12

Franklin Morales – Rockies

Starter – Throws Left – 6-3, 180 – 1/24/86

Franklin has been a bit of a mixed bag in two MLB starts since being purchased last weekend. He was very good in his MLB debut holding the Dodgers to 1 run in 5.1 IP on 5 hits without a walk. In his second start however he walked 5 in 4 IP and allowed 7 hits and 4 runs … Ahhh … young pitchers …

Consistently throwing strikes has been a major issue for Franklin as you can see in his stat block. Consistency is an issue all around. Franklin can’t even maintain a consistent height, having grown three inches since entering the Rockies system.

His potential is undeniable though. Franklin is the holy grail of pitching development, a power lefty. And he isn’t a power pitcher by lefty standards, he is a true power pitcher. His fastball cruises in the mid-90s, his curve has great teeth, and his change is coming along.

He needs to button down his mechanics but Morales’ body is still changing so much that is may be hard to finalize a delivery. Franklin still has some composure issues to deal with as well. If his change comes in and he develops some control, it is easy to see Franklin sitting at the top of a rotation.

Morales has a very high ceiling and if his control issues are truly mechanical in nature it is an easier fix than trying to install the skill from scratch . Franklin’s 2007 value will be limited by his inconsistency, and if untamed his inconsistency will limit his overall value as well. Nevertheless, if he can learn how to repeat a delivery, Morales can become a high-impact fantasy starter.

Long term Fantasy Grade - A

Seas Lvl   W  L   ERA    IP  K/9 BB/9 HR/9   AVG  WHIP

2006 A+   10  9  3.68 154.0 10.5  5.2  0.5  .225  1.40

2007 AA    3  4  3.48  95.2  7.2  4.2  0.8  .222  1.28

2007 AAA   2  0  3.71  17.0  8.5  6.9  0.5  .294  1.94

2007 MLB   0  1  4.82   9.1  5.7  4.8  1.0  .313  0.02

Chris Marrero – Nationals

Starter – Bats Right – 6-3, 210 – 7/21/1988

Say hello to a member of Baseball America’s 2008 Top 100 prospects.

Already the considered the top prep position player available, the 15^th overall pick in the 2006 draft wowed the Nationals brass with a BP fireworks show in a workout at RFK stadium and Jim Bowden had found his … well … kid.

Chris has plus raw power and launches the ball to all fields. He has a quick and to-the-point swing and quiet hands. Considering he has just turned 19, Chris has decent zone command although we would like to see him making a quicker adjustment at High A.

Chris plays a serviceable outfield after converting from third base, which was his high school position. He has a very strong arm and seems to have a good feels for routes.

Marrero has a slugger’s K rate but he will take a walk. Chris’ limiting factor will be his zone command and it is too early to make any lasting judgments. His stock as a prospect will take off once he starts to bring pitcher to him and starts driving the ball all of over the joint as a result.

Chris looks like a future middle-of-the-order stud and by the end of 2008 he will be on everyone’s radar.

Long Term Fantasy Grade - A 

Seas Lvl  AB XBH  HR  SB   AVG   BB%     K%   SLG   OPS

2006 R    81   9   0   0  .309  9.0%  23.5%  .420  .791

2007 A   222  28  14   0  .293  5.9%  17.6%  .545  .880

2007 A+  214  18   7   0  .257 11.9%  26.2%  .416  .762

James Loney –  Dodgers

First Base – Bats Left – 6-2, 220  - 5/7/1984

We here at Prospect Central have been remiss in regards to James Lonely, in part because he was a “known” to start the year, a top prospect who already had 100 MLB ABs under his belt. However, actually he started the year with only about 100 MLB ABs under his belt.

The Dodgers almost inexplicably sent him back to AAA this spring, perhaps thinking that Nomar’s shift to first base would limit Loney’s regular ABs and therefore his development. The then 22-year-old had nothing to prove in the minors and played like it. Still, Nomar was equally uninspiring for the big club and the call was put out.

Since being recalled, James has reigned in his K rate, pumped up his SLG%, and made good contact, but August has been a struggle. James is hitting just .231 this month with a .354 SLG%.

Keep an eye on that SLG%. James has yet to show the kind of power that would make him a top-tier player at the production demanding position of first base. Part of the issue there is that Loney has a quick flat swing, which produces more GB that a power hitter would like. His career GB ratio in 314 MLB ABs is 1.15 (1.10 this year) and in AAA this year, James GB/LD/FB split was 84/38/60.

Once established in the majors perhaps Loney can start to install some lift in his swing. For now however, his power potential is an open question.

Long Term Fantasy Grade – B-     

Seas Lvl  AB XBH  HR  SB   AVG   BB%     K%   SLG   OPS

2006 AAA  366  43  8   9  .380  8.0%   9.3%  .546  .976

2006 MLB  102  15  4   1  .284  7.3%   9.8%  .559  .901

2007 AAA  233  21  1   2  .279  9.7%  20.6%  .382  .731

2007 MLB  209  19  6   0  .311  7.5%  13.4%  .474  .836

Jonathan Sanchez – Giants

Pitcher – Throws Left – 6-2, 195 – 11/19/1982

The Giants had hoped that their second best pitching prospect behind Tim Lincecum would develop as a solid middle of the rotation starter. However, their 2006 bullpen woes would not let them wait for Sanchez to develop his third pitch.

Sanchez throws a low-90s fastball but can reach for the mid-90s on occasion. He works in reverse with his solid fastball setting up a plus change, which has been his out pitch. His would-be third pitch is a slider but Jonathan’s work in the major league bullpen has stifled its development.

Since returning to Fresno on August 9^th, Jonathan has returned to starting role. He has only been stretched out a little so far, failing to get through 5 IP in either start, but he has struck out 15 in 8.2 IP against just 8 hits and a walk.

Stretching him out is another major concern of the Giants as Sanchez has not worked more than 126 IP in the past 4 seasons and less than 100 IP in the last two. Jonathan’s future fantasy value rests firmly on his ability to develop a third pitch. That will determine whether his future is that of a back-half-of-the-rotation starter or a 6-out reliever.

Jonathan is getting a little long in the tooth by prospect standards. The Giants decision to stunt his progress as a starter with all the MLB bullpen time he has had in the past two season indicates that they don’t project much ceiling for Jonathan as a starter. Barring some kind of late bloom here, I tend to agree. Sanchez looks to be headed for a career as a 7^th inning guy and/or a spot starter

Long Term Fantasy Grade - C   

Seas Lvl   W  L   ERA    IP  K/9 BB/9 HR/9   AVG  WHIP

2006 AA    2  1  1.15  31.1 13.2  2.6  0.0  .137  0.73

2006 AAA   2  2  3.80  23.2 10.7  4.9  0.4  .163  1.10

2006 MLB   3  1  4.95  40.0  7.4  5.2  0.5  .257  1.55

2007 A+    0  0  0.00   3.0 15.0  3.0  0.0  .000  0.33

2007 AAA   0  0  0.00  10.0  9.0  2.7  0.0  .151  0.80

2007 MLB   1  2  5.30  35.2 10.9  5.8  1.0  .247  1.57

Lars Anderson – Red Sox

First Base – Bats Left – 6-5, 190 – 9/25/1987

The Red Sox have been wielding their financial muscles more like their Empire State rivals in recent drafts and Lars Anderson is the latest example. Lars came to the 2006 draft as California’s High School leader in HRs and hefty price tag. His contract demands dropped him out of a projected late first round/early second round pick to the 18^th round when the Red Sox nabbed him.

The Red Sox had power at the top of their draft wish list last year, and Lars brings raw natural power to the picnic. The ball jumps off his bat at the end of a compact but effortless looking swing. Best of all that plus power is there while he is 20-30 pounds short of his mature frame. Lars already has a clue at the plate and he will hit a ball where it is pitched, usually driving it in the process.

Defense could be a factor as Anderson will need work to become MLB average at the position and the Red Sox are hopeful they are not developing another DH here. Still, most feel what they are developing is a 3, 5, or perhaps even 4 hitter. Like Chris Marrero, Lars Anderson will probably find space on next year’s Top 100 prospect list and his stock will rise quickly in the next 24 months

Long Term Fantasy Grade – A-  

Seas Lvl  AB XBH  HR  SB   AVG   BB%     K%   SLG   OPS

2007 A   452  48  10   2  .290 13.1%  24.6%  .447  .830

These reports are just part of our Prospect Central section, every week we publish in-depth profiles on the players that you should be considering adding to your fantasy rosters. Who are the other rookies to consider this year? Sign up for our premium package and dominate your league starting today.