Player Projections Blog - March 8th

Kris Benson was back in the news on Wednesday, with the word that he isn't experiencing much success in rehabbing his torn rotator cuff. Benson, who was 11-12 with a 4.82 ERA and an ugly 88:58 K:BB last year with the Orioles, is a poor bet to do much this year anyway, surgery or no surgery, but the lack of progress leaves it likely that he'll undergo surgery sooner rather than later. That would knock him out for probably all of 2007. The fantasy upshot here is that this all but secures Adam Loewen a slot in the rotation who will combine with Steve Trachsel to fill out the bottom of the rotation. Loewen has been impressive this spring, including a two-inning five-strikeout effort on Monday. Not a bad sleeper option.

I must admit, I was highly critical of Giants GM Brian Sabean's decision to hand the then-37 year-old Omar Vizquel a three-year deal prior to the 2005 season. Vizquel seemed prime for a major slide at that age playing a demanding defensive position, but he's been able to keep it up both offensively and defensively, stealing 24 bases in each of the last two years while maintaining a solid OBP (.361 in 2006). Vizquel and the Giants are considering a contract extension (his deal is up this year), and another year or two wouldn't be a bad thing at this point, as Vizquel seems primed to be a contributor into his 40s.

Manager Joe Torre told Philip Hughes last month that no matter what he did this spring, that Hughes would open the year at Triple-A. That's not a bad thing for the phenom's development and with Carl Pavano not on the DL quite yet, there's no room for Hughes anyway. I still think Hughes is a worthy end-game pick in all AL-only and some deeper mixed leagues, as there's bound to be an injury to the New York starting five by April. For most of you, I don't think you would see it as a stretch if I said that Hughes could have a Doc Gooden-like rookie impact this season once he is promoted. Last year in 146 innings between High-A and Double-A, Hughes was 14-6 with a 2.03 ERA and he racked up 168 strikeouts while walking just 34.

Joe Kennedy was pounded for five runs and eight hits in two innings by the Cubs on Wednesday. Kennedy entered spring training as the prohibitive favorite to fill the fifth starter role, but he's allowed nine runs and 14 hits in 3 2/3 innings so far. Kennedy isn't out of the mix quite yet, but with a 2.31 ERA out of the pen in 2006, he may be best-suited for a bullpen role. If you're in AL-only or deeper mixed-leagues and are wondering who would step in as the fifth starter, the primary candidate looks to be Brad Halsey. More likely, Billy Beane would look to make a trade.

Bill Hall hit his second homer of the spring on Wednesday (along with a double), and he is set to open as the team's cleanup hitter. Considering that his goal is to steal 20+ bases, he'll be very valuable as a SS-eligible player in fantasy leagues this year. Hall really blossomed last year, hitting 35 homers and seeing his BB/PA increase to 10.4% from 2005's 7.2%. He seems a lock to drive in 100 runs hitting cleanup as well.

By all accounts, the return date for Bartolo Colon keeps getting pushed up. Colon threw off the mound Tuesday for the first time and now the LA Times is reporting that Colon could actually pitch in a Cactus League game by month's end. That would likely put him on track for a late-April return. Even when he does return though, Colon seems like a poor bet to repeat his 2005 Cy Young season. His strikeout rate has declined in each of the last two seasons and he's lost some velocity on his fastball. No word lately on his conditioning, but perhaps his status as an impending free agent will result in fewer trips through the buffet line.

Things are looking up for J.J. Hardy these days. Hardy has missed significant time with shoulder and ankle injuries the last two years, but now he's healthy and with Bill Hall moved to center field, he has shortstop all to himself. On Wednesday, went 3-for-3 with his third double and three runs scored against the Rockies to raise his spring average to .381 in 21 at-bats. One thing worth noting from a fantasy perspective is that manager Ned Yost is trying Hardy in the #2 spot in the lineup this spring, something that if it carries through to the regular season, would be a nice boost to Hardy's value. Hardy has shown nice on-base potential and could hit 12-15 home runs this year and batting him second would give him a shot at 90+ runs scored.

Anyone a believer in Sammy Sosa yet? Sosa launched a monster home run on Wednesday and is now 5-for-12 with two homers this spring. Sure, it's early March, but Sosa seems to be a lock to make the team. He would likely get most of his at-bats as a DH, though he could see some time in right field at the expense of Nelson Cruz depending on how Cruz fares this spring. Sosa's homer today was off Livan Hernandez, so don't get too excited, but a $1 bid on Sosa in an AL-only league isn't a waste of money right now.

Based on Wednesday's outing, young Tim Lincecum, the Giants' top pick in 2006, has a little work to do in the minors after all. A pre-spring darkhorse for the #5 starter job, Lincecum gave up three runs on four hits over two innings against the Brewers. Keep him on your radar however, and if your league has slots for minor leaguers, Lincecum is a guy to grab. In his 2006 debut, he posted a solid 1.71 ERA and 58:12 K:BB ratio in 31.2 innings. Yes, that's a K/9 ratio of 16.5 for those of you counting at home. Some scouts think his smallish frame and delivery are best-suited to the bullpen, but for now at least, the Giants disagree.

Scott Thorman entered camp as the overwhelming favorite to garner the lion's share of the first base at-bats in the wake of the LaRoche trade, but he's doing nothing yet to show he deserves it. With Craig Wilson brought in as insurance and/or a possible platoon role, Thorman is just 3-for-15 (all singles) with no walks and four strikeouts this spring. He also committed his first error on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Wilson is 4-for-9 with a double, triple, and home run. Look at Wilson as a solid NL-only sleeper. After all, Wilson has as solid .354 career OBP and he once hit 29 homers with the Pirates (2004).

With the news Wednesday that Mark Kotsay could miss most of the first half of the season after undergoing back surgery, bump up Dan Johnson's fantasy value. With Shannon Stewart aboard, Johnson was expected to lose quite a bit of first base time to Nick Swisher, but Johnson should now be the everyday first baseman, hitting in the bottom third of the order. Johnson showed good promise as a rookie in 2005, hitting .275/.355/.451 before struggling last year to a .704 OPS. Johnson's struggles may have been in large part due to double-vision, which has hopefully been corrected through eye therapy this offseason. Even with his struggles last year, Johnson's career EYE remains at 0.93 and he's capable of 20-25 home runs given 500 at-bats. Excellent sleeper potential here.

Everyone's favorite drama queen, Roger Clemens, indicated that he could decide on his future by early-May. Early numbers had Clemens at 80% sure that he'd retire, but of course we've heard this before. Considering Clemens has a 2.03 ERA and is still striking out eight hitters per nine innings, he would likely still be an effective pitcher in 2007. With good friend Andy Pettitte joining the Yankees, they seems to be the favorite at this point, but don't discount family and the Astros.

Marcus Giles is 4-for-12 this spring, and new manager Bud Black indicated Wednesday that Giles could lead off for the team this year. That certainly boosts his fantasy value, as Giles would likely have more stolen base opportunities and score more runs. After Giles hit 21 homers and posted an .842 OPS back in 2003, many predicted stardom, but injuries have held him back in recent years. Giles has a career EYE of 0.62 and although he strikes out more than you would want in a leadoff man, he's probably the best option on that team.

Andre Ethier went 2-for-4 on Wednesday and is now 7-for-15 on the spring. He was the overwhelming favorite to be the team's starting RF this year over Matt Kemp, but this should cement his job in stone. I wouldn't expect Ethier to be a platoon player either, as the left-handed hitter batted .351/.378/.468 against southpaws last year.

After an 0-for-4 day on Wednesday, that makes 14 hitless at-bats for Jeremy Hermida this spring. Hermida should be a lock to open as the team's right-fielder, but a sub-Mendoza average might give new manager Freddie Gonzalez second thoughts. I'd still expect Hermida to be there on Opening Day, but a few hits would set my mind at ease. He's too talented not to break out soon.