Inherited Runners Stranded Percentage
Good morning everybody. For the topic of today's First Pitch, we are going to tap into some feedback that came as a result of my last column (on Adjusted Reliever ERA), as well as a notion that Lou Blasi touched on the other day concerning how to compose your pitching staff.
One of the premises of the Adjusted Reliever ERA piece was that having a fuller picture of a reliever's effectiveness is an important part of determining their true value for fantasy purposes. For that study, I basically just added the relievers' Inherited Runners Scored to their ERA calculations. After the last column, I got comments from several of you suggesting that another way to measure reliever effectiveness was to look at the percentage of Inherited Runners that a reliever has allowed to score. To take this a step further, Lou showed the other day how proper usage of good relief pitching on your fantasy staff can actually help to 'insulate' your starters from bad performances (or, in some cases turn mediocre starter performances into really good ones).
Well, ask and ye shall receive. Today we will look at Inherited Runners Stranded percentage for relief pitchers for the 2006 season as well as so far this year. Hopefully this can help us to find some hidden value or perhaps dispel the notion that certain guys are valued as highly as they are. For the data from 2006, I used the following criteria to narrow the field. The pitcher must have had at least 15 total Inherited Runners on the season. Then, I calculated the Inherited Runners Strand Percentage (IRS%). For reference, the average IRS% for all pitchers that qualified was 67.8%.
Below are the leaders for last season in terms of Inherited Runners Strand percentage. These guys did the best job of coming into the game with runners on base and preventing them from scoring.
0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>PLAYER
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>IR
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>IRS
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>IRS%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>B.J. Ryan, Tor
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>29
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>28
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>96.6%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Brian Fuentes,
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>16
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>15
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>93.8%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Tyler Walker, SF
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>16
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>15
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>93.8%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Joe Kennedy, Oak
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>21
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>19
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>90.5%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Pat Neshek,
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>29
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>26
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>89.7%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Brian Wilson, SF
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>17
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>15
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>88.2%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Dennys Reyes, Min
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>45
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>39
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>86.7%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Justin Duchscherer, Oak
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>22
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>19
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>86.4%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Bobby Jenks, CWS
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>30
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>25
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>83.3%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Jonathan Papelbon, Bos
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>24
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>20
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>83.3%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Craig Hansen, Bos
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>18
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>15
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>83.3%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Wes Littleton,
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>18
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>15
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>83.3%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Manny
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>29
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>24
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>82.8%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>J.J. Putz, Sea
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>40
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>33
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>82.5%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>John Grabow, Pit
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>40
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>33
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>82.5%
As you can see from the data, BJ Ryan was clearly the best last season at stranding inherited runners. In addition, some other assumptions are being supported by this data. One reader suggested that closers do not primarily enter the game with runners on base. The data from 2006 shows that among closers with more than 20 saves, the average Inherited Runners per appearance was .25, while the average Inherited Runners per appearance for all relievers with more than 20 appearances was higher, at .52. To the contrary, though, the list above does include several closers: Ryan, Fuentes, Jenks, Papelbon, and Putz, who all entered games frequently with runners on base and all excelled at preventing them from scoring.
Now lets look at the worst at stranding Inherited Runners in 2006. Same criteria as for the list above.
0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>PLAYER
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>IR
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>IRS
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>IRS%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>18
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>27.8%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Jason Davis, Cle
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>21
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>6
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>28.6%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Manny Delcarmen, Bos
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>31
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>12
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>38.7%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Rudy Seanez,
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>18
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>7
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>38.9%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Ron Flores, Oak
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>18
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>7
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>38.9%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Boone Logan, CWS
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>17
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>7
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>41.2%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Brian Meadows, Cin
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>29
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>12
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>41.4%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Nate Field,
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>22
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>10
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>45.5%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Matt Guerrier, Min
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>17
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>8
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>47.1%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Jake Woods, Sea
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>29
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>14
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>48.3%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Ambiorix Burgos, KC
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>41
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>20
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>48.8%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Ruddy
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>30
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>15
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>50.0%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Fernando Cabrera, Cle
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>22
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>11
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>50.0%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Sendy Rleal, Bal
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>20
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>10
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>50.0%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Jack Taschner, SF
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>20
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>10
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>50.0%
Clearly this motley group is not full of players that we'd normally have on our fantasy squads. What we can get from this list though is a reason that some of them were not able to earn bigger roles in their respective bullpen pecking orders. This is especially true with Burgos and Cabrera, who were given shots to close, and couldn't hold onto the opportunity. It's easy to see why that was the case.
Now let's turn our attention to this season. Who has been the best at stranding runners so far in 2007? The data below is through games of 05/06. To qualify, the pitcher must have at least 10 Inherited Runners so far this season.
0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>PLAYER
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>IR
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>IRS
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>IRS%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Justin Speier, LAA
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>13
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>13
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>100.0%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Michael Wuertz, ChC
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>11
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>11
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>100.0%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Joe Beimel, LAD
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>12
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>11
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>91.7%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Jonah Bayliss, Pit
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>12
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>11
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>91.7%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Brian Shouse, Mil
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>22
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>20
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>90.9%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Scott Schoeneweis, NYM
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>11
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>10
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>90.9%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Brendan Donnelly, Bos
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>11
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>10
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>90.9%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Geoff Geary, Phi
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>21
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>19
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>90.5%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>C.J.
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>10
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>9
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>90.0%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Gary Glover, TB
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>15
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>13
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>86.7%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Mike Stanton, Cin
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>12
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>10
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>83.3%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Joe Smith, NYM
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>16
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>13
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>81.3%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Antonio Alfonseca, Phi
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>10
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>8
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>80.0%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>10
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>8
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>80.0%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Doug Slaten, Ari
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>10
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>8
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>80.0%
Remember that the sample sizes for these results are still pretty small, so you can't take too much from this. If I were using the data myself, I would just take note that these guys are getting their jobs done so far, and could potentially be setting themselves up for bigger roles in the future. In terms of evaluating talent, however, I would still rely most heavily on a pitcher's peripheral stats like K/9 and K/BB ratios.
Now, here are the worst relievers so far in 2007 at preventing inherited runners from scoring.
0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>PLAYER
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>IR
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>IRS
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>IRS%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Ruddy
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>10
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>30.0%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Mike Myers, NYY
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>11
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>36.4%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Vinnie Chulk, SF
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>10
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>40.0%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Luis Vizcaino, NYY
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>11
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>45.5%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Joel Peralta, KC
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>11
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>45.5%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Victor Santos, Cin
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>13
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>6
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>46.2%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Jimmy Gobble, KC
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>13
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>6
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>46.2%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>10
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>50.0%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Shawn Camp, TB
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>19
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>10
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>52.6%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Matt Thornton, CWS
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>11
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>6
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>54.5%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Brian Stokes, TB
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>14
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>8
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>57.1%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Alan Embree, Oak
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>15
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>9
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>60.0%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Ryan Wagner, Was
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>10
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>6
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>60.0%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Levale Speigner, Was
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>13
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>8
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>61.5%
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Aaron Fultz, Cle
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>16
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>10
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>62.5%
I think its worth noting that Ruddy Lugo appears on both the worst of 2006 and the worst of 2007 (so far) lists. If you think its hard to believe the guy still has a job in a big league bullpen...you'd be correct. He was sent to the minors after Sunday's game. In addition, Ryan Wagner is completely free of the "future closer" tag at this point, isn't he?
Nathan
May 8, 07 at 07:01 PM
Where do you compile these stats from? In my fantasy league we do points for inherited runners stranded and minus points for letting them score. Its hard to find this data neatly presented.... I'm wondering
if you can help?
Jeff
May 8, 07 at 07:01 PM
Hi Nathan,
I had to do some serious looking myself to come up with this data. I wouldn't necessarily say it is neatly presented (if your purpose is to use them for your league stats), but you can take a look for yourself.
I found the stats at Sportsnet.ca.
http://www2.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/stats/pitching/
You need to 'Add Stats' for both Inherited Runners and Inherited Runners Stranded, choose your splits, then hit 'Update View'. The main problem for me was it only shows 50 players at a time. So, I copied and pasted the 50 shown into Excel, then clicked the website to the next 50, copied and pasted them all, etc.
Hope this helps.
Jeff