Adam Dunn
Adam Dunn is single-handedly killing me this week. On Thursday he went 3-4 (falling a 1b short of the cycle) with 3 Runs and 3 RBI's, making him 6-13 on the week with 3 HR's, 6 Runs, and 7 RBI's. Add his performance to my opponent having a staff of Brad Penny, Jose Contreras, Josh Beckett, John Smoltz, and Danny Haren and well I'm not doing so well. I digress, getting back to Dunn it's interesting because with his relatively high batting average (I did say relative) of .286, there's a perception that Dunn has changed his approach at the plate. To this I say "shenanigans!"Dunn is still striking out at the same rate as he always has and walking at the same strong rate he always does. He just happens to be in a hot streak with the long ball which is inflating his HR Rate a bit and his extra base hit Rate a bit, and he has a .328 BHIP% that's helping keep his batting average at a respectable .286. There's nothing new here going on, Dunn is just hot and when his luck turns a little bit and he cools down he'll get back into the usual .250-40-100 guy, the only new feature with Dunn version 2007 is the speed and that's where the REAL increase in his value is coming from. If he continues to run he'll be a better fantasy option than expected as he could push 15-20 SB's at this rate, but don't buy into the idea he's a new found hitter with better contact and thus better average, he's not, which is why I think he's actually a decent sell-high candidate.
Homer Bailey
I apologize to non-Reds fans as they seem to be in the news a lot this morning with some of the roster moves they're making. The move to put Eric Milton on the DL opens up an empty spot in the rotation for this Sunday. Fantasy owners are clamoring for the opportunity to see Homer Bailey called up, conveniently enough Bailey's next scheduled day to throw is May 12th (Saturday) and could easily be pushed back 1 day to accommodate the Sunday start. Bailey came into the season in the same breath as Phillip Hughes, Tim Lincecum, and all the other fantasy youngsters we all tend to clamor over, but he hasn't pitched much at the higher levels (only 7 starts at AA, and only 6 starts this year at AAA). His numbers at the lower levels are outstanding and scouts LOVE his stuff but his stats at AAA this year haven't been mind-blowing as he's only struck out 21 in 34 innings and he's walked 15 during that span. Bailey is a top prospect and very very talented and pitching in the NL Central's weak division should benefit him, but if he is called up to pitch on Sunday (and this is no guarantee as Kirk Saarloos' name has been bantered around) don't expect quick results right away. I like Bailey a lot longer-term but as I preached with fantasy owners with regards to Lincecum, young pitchers are a crap shoot and Bailey's high BB rates combined with minimal experience at the higher levels concerns me a bit about his immediate future. In deep keeper leagues if Bailey isn't owned already, he should be picked up immediately, however in shallower mixed leagues if you have a roster spot to take a flier on it wouldn't hurt but do not go dropping an established pitcher that's struggling (think Scott Olsen, Dave Bush, etc) for the hype. Understand your league format and the benefits of a high risk/high reward acquisition like Bailey, Lincecum, Hughes, etc before blindly adding them. In many formats it makes sense to add these types of players but in many others its best to let someone else ride the roller coaster.
Tim Hudson
Another quality start for Tim Hudson on Thursday makes him a perfect 8-8 on the season and improved his W-L record to 4-1. Hudson scattered 9 hits, allowing 2 ER in his 6 innings without walking a batter and striking out 4. Hudson's peripherals really aren't that much different than last year with the exception of a stronger BB Rate as he's really benefiting from a high Strand Rate of .83 and a very low BHIP% of .225 (50 points below his 3 year average). Hudson's going to be better than last year, but don't get fooled into thinking he's back to his Cy Young form in Oakland. He'll still finish in the 140-160 K area with a low-mid 3's ERA and 14-17 wins. He's still going to be a really solid starter, but he's a perfect sell high candidate if you can get a top of the line Ace with more K potential.
Kelly Johnson
Kelly Johnson is quickly moving up my list of fantasy 2B, coming into the year I had Utley at 1, followed by Kinsler, and then essentially I wasn't going to own you (since I kept nabbing Kinsler in the 14th-16th rounds of drafts. While Cano and Roberts do have some significant value with the production they provide we tend to think they were a bit overvalued coming into the season, so if you're subscriber that waited to fill 2b and missed out on Kinsler, hopefully you've been able to fill it with Kelly Johnson. Johnson's on pace to easily eclipse 100 runs and should offer a solid run at a 15 HR- 15 SB season to go along with it. On top of that he's not going to hurt you in average (likely will fall between .280-.300 on the season) and all of this production is very real. He's posting a strong batting average that's supported by a typical .253 BHIP% and his EYE of 1.16 is extremely impressive. Johnson's not going away and if you can fool an owner into thinking he's selling high on Johnson go for it, he's going to finish easily among the top 10 at his position in fantasy this season and could challenge the top 5, he's legit and one of the main reasons I may have underestimated the Braves in my preseason predictions.
Carlos Zambrano
Some of my league-mates have probably been waiting for this as I'm shopping Zambrano a bit around in my primary keeper league and well since most in the league are subscribers they have easy access to my opinions. So if I'm trying to shop Zambrano does that mean you should? Is Zambrano a buy-low candidate or is he a bust? Well let's take a look at his history to judge. This season after 8 starts Zambrano has a 5.83 ERA, he has a K rate of .75 and a BB rate of .52 with 10 HR's allowed. In 2006 after 8 starts Zambrano had a 3.88 ERA, a K rate of 1.10, and a BB rate of .68 with 6 HR's allowed. So we've been here before with Zambrano where his control has struggled mightily in the early going of the season and his given up HR's at an alarming rate. But the difference this season is Zambrano's K rate has suffered a bit, and with more balls going into play his BHIP% has been a bit unluckier (.276 vs. .248 in '06). Fortunately for Zambrano owners, the K Rate has turned a bit of late, rising to .83 in his last 5 starts. So what does all this mean? I think it means Zambrano's going to have a difficult time living up to his pre-season self predicted Cy Young award and he's going to have a difficult time reaching our lofty projections in K's (216), but I do think he's going to be an effective pitcher. He has a history of slow starts and should be good for a mid to low 3's ERA with a 185+ K's and 15-18 Wins. I hold some skepticism about his longer term numbers as the trends are moving the wrong way (think 3 years down the road for keeper leagues), but for the immediate future I think Zambrano's on the verge of turning it around. Ultimately I think for this season, he's an immediate strong buy-low candidate (there's enough negative press out there about Z's alarming BB Rates that he can be bought low, but remember he had these last year as well and was quite successful).
