Justin Germano
Germano continued his excellent run on Saturday, allowing two runs (two solo homers) over six innings in a win over the Brewers. You know you're going good when allowing two runs in six innings causes your ERA to more than double, in Germano's case from 0.47 to 1.08 in four starts. The formula for Gemano's success so far is simple: limiting walks (two in 25 innings) and not allowing homers with men on base (no homers allowed prior to Saturday's solo shots). His K/I is just 0.36, but he's never been a strikeout pitcher (0.78 in the minors), relying more on command (K:BB in excess of 4:1 as a minor leaguer, 9:2 so far this year). At this point, with Clay Hensley having a poor rehab start on Saturday at the same time Germano impressed again, there's no way the Padres will remove Germano from the rotation the way he's going.
Luke Scott
Scott may be nearing losing what could be his last chance at holding down a full-time big league job. Scott is just 2-for-24 over the last two weeks and is now at .235/.324/.420. The 10 doubles are nice, but we'd like to see more than four home runs from Scott. He's drawing a fair share of walls (11.8% BB/PA) and he's been a touch unlucky on balls in play (.272 BABIP), but more was expected here. Fortunately for Scott, Jason Lane has been even worse (.171 AVG, no homers since 4/19), but now there may be some new competition for playing time in RF. Lance Berkman told manager Phil Garner that he's ready to play RF if needed. If Berkman does see time at Scott's expense, Mike Lamb would play first and though he's just 5 for his last 31, Lamb does have a solid .291/.381/.419 line, so Scott could be in some danger here.
Antonio Alfonseca
Unfortunately for the Phillies and their fans, the prospect of Alfonseca coming in the game in the ninth inning to protect a lead could become a reality. With Tom Gordon and Brett Myers on the DL with arm injuries, late inning duties are expected to fall to Alfonseca, Ryan Madson, and perhaps even Geoff Geary. Since Alfonseca has closer experience, he could be the favorite for saves initially, so you have to grab him in NL-only leagues unfortunately. Alfonseca is sporting a 4.79 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, an ugly 9:9 K:BB, and hitters are batting .305 against him. Not exactly the component numbers for a successful closer. Look for Madson (2.95 ERA) to get the bulk of the opportunities while Myers and Gordon are out, though Madson's track record is spotty as well. He notched the save on Saturday and appears to be the #1 option at the moment.
Edgar Renteria
After a brief stint with the Red Sox, it's become pretty clear that Renteria is a National League player. Saturday, Renteria homered and doubled, driving in four runs. He's up to .332/.393/.513 with seven homers already. With Renteria hitting second in the order primarily, his stolen bases are down this year (just three), but the power is up. Renteria's career-high in homers is 16 (2000 with the Cardinals), so that's certainly reachable this year. Renteria is a career .289 hitter, so that combined with a .362 BABIP will lead to a decline in his .332 average, but the Braves and fantasy owners won't argue with a .300-20-80 season from their shortstop. It's hard to believe this is the same player that hit .276 with just eight homers while playing half his games in Fenway Park two years ago. Shortstop is a very loaded position in the NL (Reyes, Rollins, Ramirez, etc.) so Renteria isn't receiving the attention he deserves for his hot start. It will be a shame if he's left off the All-Star team.
Carlos Zambrano
I watched the Cubs - Dodgers game on Saturday and though Zambrano held the Dodgers to two runs over seven innings and struck out eight, I can't say I came away all that impressed. You never know how accurate those radar guns are, but several of Zambrano's fastballs were in the upper 80s and he pitched in the 90-91 range mostly. Perhaps he's trying to cut down on the walks (he walked just one after entering the day with a 0.51 BB/I), but he certainly hasn't shown the past domination we're used to seeing. Zambrano's ERA stands at 5.16 and after showing at least a 0.90 K/I the last three seasons, that number stands at just 0.74 in 2007. With Zambrano a free agent at year's end, we expected a contract-year drive, but it's yet to materialize. With the sale of the Cubs pending, contract talks with Zambrano are on hold, but he's probably going to choose to take whatever the Cubs are offering rather than test the market the way he's going. One thing Zambrano has going for him is that his HR/F rate is a very high 18.6%. Research suggests that this number usually stabilizes around 11%, so the fact that Zambrano has allowed a whopping 13 homers in 68 innings this year should end up working in his favor in pushing down his ERA. Simply put, as long as his G/F remains relatively stable, his home runs allowed should trend down, pushing down his ERA.
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