Starting Pitcher – Throws Right – 6-3, 190 – 5/3/1986
The Reds’ first round pick in 2004 out of La Grange Texas has been considered as one the top pitching prospects in baseball. As a result, this week’s injury to Eric Milton created a fair amount of unwarranted anticipation that Homer bailey would be the Reds starter today.
Bailey has both deceptive and very real velocity on his fastball. He can hit 98 as he did in last year’s Futures Game but he normally cruises in the low-to-mid 90s. But Bailey’s easy and relaxed motion is what makes his fastball sneaky fast. He doesn’t seem to be working terribly hard as he blows one by you. Bailey also possesses that most precious of all power pitching skills, late life. You cannot teach it, but Homer has it.
He also has two separate plus curves at different speeds and angles that when combined with an emerging changeup can keep hitters disturbingly off balance.
The Reds have been very cautious with Bailey to this point and they only began stretching out his outings last year with the Lookouts in AA where he pitched 68 IP in 13 starts. Prior to that, the Reds had been using a “piggy-back” start system in some instances that was designed to keep the wear on young arms to a minimum.
Homers’ walk rate in the last two years, with two level jumps is creeping up. He walked 3.7/9 last ear in AA despite dominating opponents, allowing just a .207 OBA. You don’t like to see that rate go up while he was so effective otherwise because Bailey simply did not need to nibble so much.
This year his walk rate in AAA has climbed to 3.93 while we have a seen a precipitous drop in K-rate to 5.5/9. Last year in two levels of the minors, Homer fanned 10.0 (A+) and 10.1 (AA) hitters per 9 innings over 148 IP … if we were not talking about his first 6 starts in AAA that would be a concern. But we are, and his .192 OBA through his fist six starts shows me that hitters haven’t exactly figured him out yet. It looks like, once again, he is his own worst enemy so far.
The Reds want to see him develop his change further and they will want to see his indicators come back up to levels that are more normal before they throw him to the MLB wolves. They understand what they have in this kid and they will have the self-discipline to advance him only when he is ready.
Like everyone else, I like Homer’s stuff. A good curve will still throw good hitters off their game. It also will make a good fastball like Bailey’s deadly. Still, count me among those that feel that a good change is needed to excel as an Ace-level pitcher in the majors. I hope the Reds give Homer time to polish his.
Bailey certainly projects as a very good #2 at a minimum (all normal caveats and disclaimers apply of course) with Ace capability if he can fully install that change.
Long term Fantasy Grade - A
Seas Lvl W L ERA G IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP
2006 A+ 3 5 3.31 13 70.2 10.2 3.7 0.1 .207 1.15
2006 AA 7 1 1.59 13 68.0 10.1 2.8 0.8 .197 1.00
2007 AAA 3 1 1.83 6 34.1 5.5 3.9 0.5 .171 1.02
Andy LaRoche – Dodgers
Third Baseman – Bats Right – 6-1, 200 – 9/13/1983
Most hitters manage pitchers and when things go well they may get themselves into a count where they can guess right and go hard after a good pitch. Andy LaRoche attacks pitchers and waits for the next offering like my dog waits for me to put down his bowl.
I remember this kid almost running up to hit pitches in the Cape Cod League in 2003 and he has taken that aggressive approach to his pro career. Andy has great hands that stay inside and he is very quick to the ball. LaRoche has power to all fields but loves to drive the ball through the middle when things are going well.
While he is a blast to watch as a hitter, his swing can sometimes get too big and he can enlarge his strike zone when he’s pressing. As he sees more and more sophisticated pitching he may have trouble adjusting to speeds, but Andy is not all impulse at the plate, he is showing some signs of progress with plate command.
LaRoche’s swing provides natural lift, which will feed his power numbers as he moves forward. That swing will be his biggest challenge in the majors, however. Once he can learn to be disciplined and rely on his natural power, his strong contact skills will make him a very tough out.
He will need an adjustment period as much as any prospect we have seen in a while. But once he gains his sea legs he’s looking like something in the .275/30/90 range.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - A
Seas Lvl AB AVG SLG OPS XBH HR BB SO SB
2006 AA 230 .309 .483 .896 22 9 41 32 6
2006 AAA 202 .322 .550 .946 24 10 25 32 3
2007 AAA 98 .235 .367 .679 7 3 11 14 0
2007 MLB 10 .400 .500 1.088 1 0 5 0 1
Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Braves
Catcher – Bats Right – 6-4, 195 – 5/2/1985
The man with the longest name in baseball seems to have taken the longest time to get here. We have anticipated this power-hitting catcher since his breakout season in 2005. But last year an injured wrist soured his 2006 bottom line.
Last season’s .230 with 9 HR and .733 OPS may not be terribly exciting but after having sub-.200 months in May and June due to the wrist injury (.538 and .519 OPS), Jarrod hit .357 in July (1.318 OPS) and .313 in August (.863). He then went on to play well in the Olympic qualifying tournament, and followed that by hitting .353 with three homers in the AFL.
This switch hitter has a power hitter’s swing that is smooth and quick. His K rates have been ok in the context of a slugger and his patience at the plate is improving, albeit more slowly than the Braves would like.
Obvious Jarrod’s path behind the plate is blocked by Brian McCann and his recent call up was as insurance with McCann nursing a bruised finger. The Brave have started to push Jarrod towards first base, which, potentially, also solves the issue of some defensive shortcomings.
You have to believe that his future may be with another organization but the Braves are not exactly set at first base in the short or long term, and Jarrod is just 22.The Braves probably aren’t ready to talk about letting him go before they see how well he can play first. Should they develop a major need this year however, this is the guy that teams will be asking for in trade.
Jarrod has restored himself as a top offensive prospect in the past 10 months. Obviously, his potential value is better if he can stick at catcher somewhere else, but he projects to be at least a competitive first baseman if that is where he ends up.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - B
Seas Lvl AB AVG SLG OPS XBH HR BB SO SB
2006 AA 313 .230 .380 .725 27 9 55 71 0
2007 AA 81 .309 .617 1.022 13 6 13 17 2
2007 MLB 9 .222 .222 .586 0 0 1 1 0
