Jeremy Hermida
Hermida homered for the 2nd time in his last 3 games on Sunday, but still appears to be going through some growing pains at the major league level. Hermida's fallen off the radar of most fantasy owners after he scorned them last year with an unproductive rookie campaign filled with hype. Hermida's striking out an alarming 34% of the time at the plate right now and hasn't showed the dominant EYE he displayed in the minors. While the 2 HR's in the last few days is encouraging, he only has 4 hits in 32 June AB's and he's struck out 13 times (40%). It appears Hermida still needs a bit of time at the major league level before he'll be able to realize his big potential. For now he's only an adequate option in Deep NL Only or Dynasty leagues and should be reserved in almost all other formats until he shows better ability to make consistent contact.
Tom Glavine
It appears the Tom Glavine statistical "correction"all came in one fell swoop against the Tigers on Sunday. Heading into Sunday's start Glavine had a nice 3.44 ERA that has benefited significantly from a Strand Rate of .78 and a BHIP% of .264 that's approximately 25 points below his 3 year average. All of the peripherals suggested an expected ERA of 4.06. After Sunday's performance, in which Glavine allowed 9 ER's on 11 Hits and 2 BB's in 4 1/3 innings, Glavine's ERA sits at 4.15 and is more representative of the ERA he's deserved. This serves as a perfect example of why we try to focus on the "indicators"rather than the production. Glavine's still a solid back of the rotation starter in Mixed leagues and should be the type of starter that's occasionally sat when facing some of the premier AL offenses.
Chris Duncan
It feels like I'm coming up on my 1 year anniversary of telling fantasy owners to be weary of Chris Duncan. Duncan put up an impressive 22 HR's in only 280 AB's last season and became a fantasy darling to many. I never quite fell in love as I didn't believe the extended minor league track record that showed a power hitter with limited plate discipline and limited batting average upside. While the power at the major league level continues to surpass his minor league track record, Duncan's poor EYE continues to limit his overall value. In Duncan's most recent 2-31 slide he's struck out 14 times with only 1 BB. On the season his EYE sits at an uninspiring .34. In my opinion the leagues caught up to Duncan and as the book continues to build the power will come down closer in line with his minor league track record which is closer to the .480 Slugging % he's currently sporting. Think of Duncan as a .260-25-65 type hitter prone to plenty of streaks.
Randy Johnson
The Big Unit continues to be utterly dominant in the AL. This time he shut down the Red Sox in 6 innings as he allowed 1 ER on 4 hits and 3 BB's while striking out 9. The Red Sox drove up Johnson's pitch counts early in the game and kept him from getting into the 7th, however he was dominant yet again posting his 3rd consecutive quality start. Johnson hasn't allowed more than 2 ER's in a start since May 9th and is posting an incredible 70:11 K:BB ratio in only 53 2/3 innings. Johnson may not be able to get to 200 innings this year but I think he'll break 200 K's and be a premier fantasy option as long as he's healthy. I like Johnson a lot more than most and think he'll be a fantasy ace in almost every format this season. It's only going to get better as he's starts facing some weaker offenses. To this point he's faced BOS, PHI twice, NYM, and COL for 5 of his 9 starts.
Dave Bush
I'm pretty heavily invested in Dave Bush this year, so take this note from a concerned owner. After consecutive starts in which Bush left having allowed less than 2 ER's to cross the plate (his last start against the Cubs the bullpen allowed 2 inherited runners to score), Bush came out on Sunday night and struggled against a Texas lineup without Mark Teixeira. Bush lasted only 4 1/3 innings allowing 3 ER's on 6 Hits and 2 BB's, while striking out 4. He continues to suffer from extraordinarily bad luck with one of the highest BHIP%'s in all of baseball and an Expected ERA over a run below his actual ERA, but at some point you have to wonder if the Brewers patience will wane. To this point the Brewers have shown as much confidence in Bush as you could possibly ask for as they've clearly placed him ahead of Claudio Vargas on the totem pole and manager Ned Yost has made repeated comments suggesting they're aware of Bush pitching better than his numbers indicate. But I fear that Bush is pitching himself out of a secured rotation spot and into a duel for the 5th spot in the rotation with Claudio Vargas. The more the Brewers continue to struggle, the more likely they are to bring up Gallardo. For now, Bush owners should sit tight and keep him in reserve when facing Minnesota in his next start. In shallow leagues if a better option exists on the waiver wire, it's worth letting him go as Bush doesn't seem to be drawing a lot of interest in the shallower leagues I'm participating in and can likely be gotten right back if he throws a good start. If the numbers regress back to normal, Bush will be a valuable pitcher who helps keep down WHIP and offers solid K potential despite the inflated ERA.
