This week we will pick up some players from the Futures Game rosters that haven’t yet appeared in Prospect Central, and introduce you to a rising young star in the Red Sox System…
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Jed Lowrie – Red Sox
Shortstop – Bats Both – 6-0, 185 –
4/17/1984
My pilgrimages to see Jacoby Ellsbury and
Clay Buchholz
perform for the AA Portland Sea Dogs has afforded me the opportunity to
watch
Stanford product Jed Lowrie emerge as a viable MLB prospect.
Jed looks like the shortstop package that Theo Epstein
thought he was getting with Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo. Jed is a
very disciplined
hitter who has maintained fairly level K:BB ratio throughout his
college and
pro career. He takes walks, limits his strikeouts and he can hit for
power.
His last two years at Stanford he reached the mid-teens in
HR in less than 250 ABs but that power has not translated to his wood
bats as
of yet. His 22 doubles in AA and his .490 SLG% suggest that his pop is
still
there and I am wondering at his point if he has modified his hitting a
bit to
fill what he thinks his role should be.
Jed is above average defensively with a strong arm and he
may be able to stick as a SS at the MLB level depending how his body
fills out.
Jed is also a gamer. He is one of those guys who always finds a way to
do
something the course of the game to further the cause of his team
winning. He
finds a way to get in the game story every night. About the only thing
that he
doesn’t do well right now is steal bases, despite good
athletic speed.
But what Theo will (does?) love about him is that he doesn’t
give away at bats. He works counts, makes pitchers work, and makes
quality
outs.
If Jed can port his terrific plate discipline up the ladder
to the show, and maintain his ability to play a quality shortstop and
find some
way to contribute to the cause every night, he will be a valuable MLB
asset for
the Red Sox (and if Lugo
keeps going like he is, we are talking maybe next month!). If he can
restore
his power game on top of all of that, and fulfill his promise as one of
the
better overall college hitters in the country in 2004, he will become a
major
fantasy asset as well.
Long Term Fantasy Grade – B+ for
now.
Seas Lvl AB XBH
HR
SB AVG OBP
SLG BB%
K%
2006 A+ 374
30 3 2
.262 .355 .374
12.6% 17.4%
2007 AA 245
32 4 4
.302 .416 .490
16.4% 17.6%
Carlos Carrasco –
Phillies
Starter – Throws Right – 6-3, 190 –
3/3/1997
This Venezuelan exports is the Phillies’ top prospect according to Baseball America, with good reason. After a failed attempt to force feed him into low-A as an 18-year old in 2005 Carlos took root in 2006 going 12-6 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 159.1 IP setting him up for an appearance in the 2006 Futures Game.
Now 20 years old, the right-hander is rocketing through the Phillies system. He throws a 90+ mph fastball that cruises a little under 92 but what makes that fastball effective is some squirrelly life. It plays much faster than its velocity. Carlos can reach back for a 94 every now and again, but at that point, his fastball straightens out a little, leaving him with minimal gains. He’s listed at the same height and weight of Clay Buchholz and is a bit younger so we expect Carlos to full out a bit as well, hopefully adding an effective foot or two to his fastball. If that happens Carlos will inch towards elite starter prospect status.
Carrasco’s fastball is enhanced
by its life and a plus
change that Carlos commands well. It is already an advanced change,
although he
still tips it at times. That gives him two strong building blocks as a
starter. Regular readers know that you cannot
start in the big leagues with two pitches and Carrasco’s
third pitch is in the
pipeline, his curve ball.
There is promise there. Carlos can really pull the chute on
his curve, throwing it in the mid-to-low 70’s while keeping
some downward bite.
It is hard to tell however whether he is throwing his curve different
speeds
purposefully, or if he is simply erratic in his delivery. He thinks
more of his
curve than is warranted at times but that fact that he likes to throw
it so
much has speeded its development.
In general, he still has not nailed down his simple mechanics and repeatability is often a problem, both from a performance standpoint, and the desire to disguise his pitches with similar deliveries. He also shows distress on the mound, which contributes to his consistency issues. His pitch routines change when he is struggling.
His recent promotion to AA will provide a good litmus test for Carlos as we see how he has progressed in the areas of consistency, command, and that all-important third pitch. His A+ numbers were fine but his 6.8 K rate suppresses his hype level a bit. If Carlos can fill out his body and develop that extra foot or two in his fastball and polish up his overall game, he may develop low-#1 starter potential. Right now, he looks like a very good #3 or average #2. He is only 20 however, so stay tuned.
Long Term Fantasy Grade – B+
Seas Lvl
W
L ERA IP
K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP
2006
A 12
6 2.26 159.1 9.0
3.7 0.3 .186 1.05
2007
A+ 6
2 2.84 69.2
6.9 2.8 1.0
.200 1.02
2007
AA 2
0 2.45 11.0
8.2 4.1 0.0
.184 1.09
Wladimir
Balentien –
Mariners
Outfielder –
Bats Right – 6-2, 190 – 7/2/1984
This Curacao native would have looked very much at home in the Red Sox farm system in the 1970s … and 1980s .. and yes … the 1990s. See if this sounds familiar … light tower power and 144 strikeouts in 444 ABs.
That was last year in AA for Balentien who hit 22 HRs and added 23 doubles in that same span. He walked at 13.6% clip, which is good of course, but there is a point where a walk rate reflects the fear of opposing pitchers more than the plate discipline of the hitter. His 31.5% K rate … I’ll wait while that sinks in … Ready? … His 31.5% K rate is a much better indicator of what was going on … and it jumps off the page at you.
Still, the nearly-23-year-old slugger has made tremendous strides in 2007 in AAA. He has cut his K rate to a respectable 21.8%, while his more legitimate walk rate remains healthy at 11.3%. He has raised his AA average nearly 100 points to .322 in AAA and it hasn’t sapped his power in the least. In fact his .581 SLG% represents a 150 point increase.
Yikes.
This is a surprise.
Wlad (pronounced like the more common “Vlad”) has had maturation issues and has let his anger get the best of him at times in the past, but he has been playing in the M’s organization since he was 16 and he may be finding his feet. It is almost impossible to overestimate how far he has had to come as a pro. He was a heavy kid with a long swing that couldn’t locate a curve ball with a Sherpa 24 short months ago, and now he is a legitimate prospect.
His power is intriguing and now that his peripherals are within reasonable norms, Wlad presents a very high ceiling. His 2007 season against AAA pitching has been extremely encouraging so far. The vital question remains however. Is he closer to Tim Salmon, Gorman Thomas or Wily Mo Pena?
I need a little more time to figure that one out.
Long Term
Fantasy Grade – B-
Seas
Lvl AB XBH HR
SB AVG OBP
SLG
BB% K%
2006 AA 444
46 22 14
.230 .335 .435
13.6% 31.5%
2007 AAA 298
38 19 13
.322 .399 .581
11.3% 21.8%
