Buddy Carlyle:
For those in some deeper leagues out there, I think Buddy Carlyle deserves a look and could be the guy that helps solidify the backend of the Braves rotation. Carlyle's a 29 year old journeyman who's an extreme fly ball pitcher and has always struggled with limiting HR's. He's still having those same issues at the major league level since his call-up in May, but he happens to pitch in a division with some big ballparks and makes for a nice matchups option. He's got a solid K Rate so far and has limited his BB's while at the major league level. Granted we're dealing with a bit of a small sample here, but this is the kind of guy I'd feel comfortable using in favorable matchups in big parks (think WAS, SD, PIT, etc) while reserving against top-line offenses or in small ballparks like Philly. He's going to give up some HR's so he'll be susceptible to some disastrous starts, but I think he'll play out as a very nice matchups option from here on out.
Oliver Perez:
Perez returned from the DL with a strong performance on Sunday tossing 6 innings and only allowing 2 ER's. He struck out 6, walked 3 and allowed 6 hits while improving his record to 8-6. While Perez's control has improved considerably this season and seemingly resurrected his career, he's also had the benefit of some fantastic luck this season. Perez is currently sporting a .78 Strand Rate and .237 BHIP% which place him amongst the luckiest pitchers in all the game. Perez's peripherals are quite an improvement but his actual level of performance is probably closer to 3.75 ERA and 1.32 WHIP than the 3.13 ERA and 1.18 WHIP he's currently sporting, look for a regression to come over the course of the 2nd half.
Adam Wainwright:
Wainwright was one of the biggest disappointments in the 1st month of the season and seemingly fell off the radars of fantasy owners shortly thereafter. With a 3.00 ERA since May 27th should he be though? Wainwright picked up his 8th win of the season on Sunday night shutting out the Phillies for 7 innings. He allowed 6 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 5 and lowered his ERA on the season back down to a respectable 4.36. Wainwright's command has gotten significantly better as the season's gone on and the results have been impressive for the young RH. Unfortunately I'm still hesitant to recommending him going forward. Wainwright's K Rate is extremely below average this year and while the BB's have improved he's benefiting significantly from some good luck with HR's allowed. When this number regresses a bit you're going to see Wainwright's ERA regress closer to the 4+ ERA pitcher that Wainwright's peripherals suggest. I'd say the control issues he had earlier in the year and the good luck with the HR balls have cancelled each other out and you can expect pretty much the same 2nd half as you got from Wainwright in the 1st half. The lack of the K Rate translating well from the relief role has forced me to drop back off of our strong preseason projections for Wainwright.
Brandon Webb:
Paul mentioned in his last blurb on Webb at the beginning of the month that something appeared to be wrong with Webb as Webb was coming off of another 5 BB outing that showed continued struggles with his control. The interesting thing about Webb is this lack of control hasn't been an isolated incident and has actually been consistent throughout the season. Each month he's posted a BB rate between .34 and .38, up from the previous two seasons where he finished closer to .25. Control was an issue earlier in Webb's career and it appears it's come back a bit in 2007. Since these problems aren't isolated incidents I'm more inclined to believe this is what we can expect from Webb the rest of the way. The good news is while his BB Rate has increased the K Rate has been upped a bit as well. The result is a pitcher that's on pace to strike out a few more but at the cost of an elevated WHIP and possibly a few wins as he doesn't last quite as long into games. This is only a half season's worth of data so it's difficult to say if this is a long-term career trend similar to that of Carlos Zambrano (less ground balls, more K's, more BB's), but for this season it appears Webb will have some battles on the mound with his control that keep him from lasting deep into games but also brings a few more K's. On Sunday the trend continued as Webb lasted only 5 2/3 innings giving up 3 ER's on 11 hits and 2 walks while striking out 10.
Justin Germano:
Germano put together his 9th quality start in 12 games and lowered his ERA to 3.55 with 6 1/3 shutout innings against the Diamondbacks. Germano allowed 4 hits and 3 walks while striking out 4 and improved his record to 6-3 on the season. Germano's an interesting case because he relies heavily on one primary skill, his control which is superb. While Germano's numbers on the whole look very strong, I'm going to warn his owners that I see a bit of a regression coming. For one, Germano's BB Rate and Hit Rates have steadily risen each of the last 3 months and teams that have had the benefit of seeing him more than once have really hit Germano around. In fact 2 of his 3 non-quality starts have come in starts against teams he's seen more than once this season. Germano's makes for a solid matchups play in mixed formats and is a back end starter in deeper formats. Ultimately I see Germano finishing with numbers closer to a 4.00 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, he won't hurt you too much but he's also not *this* good as he's benefited from facing some of the weaker offenses in baseball in his first 12 starts (ARZ, LAD, BAL, SF, WASH, STL rank amongst the bottom 12 teams in OPS and compromise 6 of Germano's starts).
