AL Player Spotlight - August 29, 2007

Carlos Pena grew up playing high school baseball three walking minutes from my house. My near-teenage daughter was a baby in a stroller when I used to walk her down to watch Carlos play. I interviewed him the day he was drafted 10^th overall by the Rangers and I was at Fenway the night he hit a walk off HR as a member of the Red Sox, fulfilling a dream that thousands of us growing up here have had as kids on the sandlots. This is a lot of fun for me. But what has gotten into him? Carlos’ BB rate is a career-high 15.5% but nothing else is out of line in his indicators with the exception of his 24.4% HR/FB rate. His career rate is 18.5% so we are not talking a total turnaround here or even a unique event. Carlos posted a 24.7% rate in 260 ABs with the Tigers in 2005. Carlos’ BHIP% is a level .302. So there is no help there, and his GB/FB sits at .87, just a hair off his career .89. I don’t know, you tell me. Except for his HR/FB rate, everything looks solid here. Maybe he should have 23-25 HRs instead of 30 because of it. Maybe that little bit of extra patience is getting him the pitches he can drill. It is nothing terribly obvious. Nevertheless, Carlos has arrived.
 
B.J. Upton had a productive Tuesday night going 3- for -5. They were all singles but he drove in a run, scored three times, and stole a base, upping his average to .314. After a July in which he hit .362 in 69 ABs with a .623 SLG% (5/15), Upton is hitting just .267 in August. That .267 has generated some heat however with 6 HRs, 19 RBI, and 19 runs. He has just 1 SB in 170 post-ASB ABs however, and the loss of his speed game gimps his value a bit. He has only attempted 3 steals since the ASB as opposed to 13 steals in 18 attempts in the first half. He had some back and leg cramps in late July but we haven’t caught wind of any other health issues.
 
The Yankees have announced that they will start Ian Kennedy in place of Mike Mussina on Sunday, after the rosters expand. Kennedy gets the D-Rays. The 22-year-old right-hander is not overpowering and his effectiveness will root from his command. His fastball is sub-90 quite a lot although he can throw 90+ on occasion. He lives off keeping the ball down in the zone, spotting his change up and hitting his targets. He is 1-0 in 5 AAA start this year with a 1.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .204 OBA. In AA this year he was 5-1 in 9 starts, 2.59, 0.90, .164. Good looking lines, especially when you toss in his 8.3/9 K rate in AAA and 2.7 walk rate. He was helped by a very favorable .258 BHIP% in AAA and a .238 BHIP% in AA but he earned a lot of that, same with his 89.4% strand percentage (AAA, 74.1% in AA), but none of those numbers will be repeated at the MLB level so he might be overvalued a bit in leagues with free agent bidding. Ian may be a good start against the Rays who are too young and aggressive to do well against speed and location pitchers who have a plan, such as Ian. He also may have a little run in him before the league can collect a book on him. In addition, with that offense behind him Ian may be one of the better September call ups to invest in this year.
 
Boof Bonser dropped to 6-11 on the year despite a fairly solid outing against the Central-leading Indians. Boof gave up 4 runs, 3 earned in 7 IP on just 5 hits and a walk. Two of those hits however were HRs to Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner and those bombs spoiled a good day.  It is a reoccurring theme. Boof’s bof rate is 1.2 HR/9 this year after a 1.6 rate last year. That is problematic. Bonser has not won in 14 starts and his ERA sits at 4.72 on the year. Boof is scheduled against the Royals on Sunday and that should be a usable start. He is generally a viable play, especially in AL-only leagues, but here in crunch time you may want to pay more attention to his matchups.
 
How good has Andy Pettitte been for the Yankees? He conjured up another huge win for the Bombers when they needed a stopper badly against the Red Sox. Andy held the Sox offense to 3 runs in 7 IP on 6 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6. He gave up homers to Manny and Tek along the way. He improves to 12-7 with a 3.70. I didn’t give him a shot at that kind of ERA this spring, returning to the AL East, but he has been outstanding. Still Andy’s K rate of 5.9/9 is a 6-year low dating back to his first tour with the Yanks. While he has usually controlled his HRs well, this year he is limiting opponents to a 0.5/9 HR rate as opposed to 1.13 last year (which was an outlying rate for Andy anyway). His BHIP% (.319) and strand% (72.2%) are close enough to level to not be a huge factor but his 5.6% H/FB rate is a factor that will make this performance hard to repeat next year (his career HR/FB% is 9.9%).  
 
Well, Brian Bannister is a rookie, so you have to just let it go when he says that last night’s game in Kansas City, with the Tigers in town “had a playoff atmosphere”. He also invoked such clichés as “You could cut the tension with a knife” … “do-or-die pitches” … and [pitching to the Tigers lineup] “you just don’t have room to breathe out there” … With the big win the Royals move to within 13 games of the Tigers … with over 30 games to play. And we know now that Brian has a career ahead of him as a lyric writer for Bon Jovi if he so chooses, but … well … Brian is a rookie pitcher and he is pitching pretty well. He limited the Tigers to 2 runs in 6 IP, scattering (I can invoke clichés too! And I have to admit that Bon Jovi is a guilty pleasure) 11 hits and a walk while striking out 5. He stranded 10 runners on the night and improves to 11-7 on the year with a 3.27 ERA, which leads all AL rookies. He also has the most wins for a rookie Royals starter since Kevin Appier in 1990. Brian has also posted a QS in 6 of his last 7 starts and held opponents to 2 runs or less in 5 of those starts. Brian has the Twins next, a team he has faced twice already in August winning 1 (1-0) with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.