Lance Berkman:
Berkman continues to try to make up for lost time in the month of August as he knocked out his 24th HR of the season and his 7th in August. Berkman's numbers in August look a bit more like his 2006 numbers on the whole, but it's still a bit deceiving. Berkman had always demonstrated a strong EYE throughout his career and while that decline has been one of the primary detractors from performance, it has even gotten worse in August as his EYE has dipped to .43. While Berkman's shown nice power in August, the power has only come in the HR department as he has recorded just one double during the month. The lack of 2B's has sapped his batting average this year and suggests his still solid HR totals are actually a benefit of some good luck with fly balls leaving the yard. As Schuyler mentioned yesterday, we may be on the verge of seeing Berkman's decline and while his numbers in 2007 seem like they'd suggest a rebound was due in 2008, the decrease in 2B's and EYE more likely suggest he is on the decline and could be heading from a perennial .300-30-110 down to a .280-25-90 and while the difference seems small his name value might lead to him being overvalued in '08.
Chris Capuano:
May 8th, why is that date important? Well because that's the last time Chris Capuano got a win. On Sunday it looked like that was going to end until Scott Linebrink blew the game in the 8th inning. Capuano didn't pitch great on Sunday allowing 10 base-runners and 5 ER's in his 6 innings of work, but he did strike out 8 while only walking 1. Capuano has had some terrible luck this season with his Strand Rate and his BHIP%, but what has really been the culprit of his poor performance is an increased BB Rate that has reverted after a very strong 2006 season. The good news for Capuano owners (if there are many left) is that the BB Rate has started to drop some in August. If Capuano can limit the BB's going forward I actually think he'd provide really solid value the rest of the way. The K rate is nice and the Brewers should provide better W potential down the stretch and pitching in the offensively challenged NL Central should allow for some decent value. Hopefully the Brewers won't bail on Capuano's spot in the rotation when Ben Sheets returns, because he's still one of their 5 best starters. A nice time to buy super low on Capuano who has been hitting the waiver wire with more authority recently.
David Weathers:
Weathers picked up his 25th save of the season on Sunday pitching an uneventful 9th inning. He has now converted 25 of his 30 save opportunities and has done so with modest peripherals, a solid K Rate of .72, an adequate BB Rate of .31, but his real value has come from limiting his HR's this season, as he's only allowed 3. Unfortunately for Weathers owners this is the result of some good luck more than anything has HR/FB Rate has dropped from a consistent 15% range all the way down to 4%. This won't last and when you add in that Weathers K:BB ratio has dropped to 1:5 in his last 9 innings, I'm thinking Weathers is in for a difficult stretch as some fly balls start finding the seats a bit more often down the stretch.
Jason Bay:
While I'll usually defer to the great Lou Blasi, I have to stay strong on my suggestion that Jason Bay isn't returning to form anytime soon. As Lou mentioned the BB Rate has dropped considerably this year along with the power and while the power can be explained away from a bit of poor luck with his FB/HR%, on the whole the majority of the indicators suggest Bay has regressed considerably. His K Rate has jumped to a 26.5% and his extra base hit % has dropped from 9.7% to 7.7%. Decreased power, decreased BB Rates, and decreased contact rates are really bad indicators for a young player who seemed to have a nice 5-6 year run in his career, but the soon to be 29 year old seems like a completely different player right now and I don't expect to see the top tier OF we pegged in the preseason returning anytime soon.
Wily Mo Pena:
Wily Mo's back in the National League and has been given an everyday role with the Nationals. The move has been a good one so far for Pena who has gone 2-7 with 2 extra base hits in his first 2 games with the Nationals. Pena has tremendous raw power and while his numbers this year have been awful I'm going to suggest ignoring them for the time being. Players that aren't given consistent playing time tend to struggle to replicate their true level of production and I think Pena provides nice power potential down the stretch. I could see Pena hitting another 6-10 HR's the rest of the way and while he provides some significant batting average downside, he's the type of late season acquisition that can provide a nice power surge in the HR standings of your roto league. In NL Only leagues I think he is pretty much a must add and should even be given consideration in more traditional mixed leagues that value the HR.
