Brandon Phillips
As I mentioned earlier in the spring, I have no problems taking stands on players and one player in particular that I’m taking a large stand on this year is Brandon Phillips. Everyone is gaga over Phillips 30-30 year (an accomplishment in which only 3 players achieved), but I think we’re staring a career year in the face and I think he’s WAY overvalued this season. Phillips peripherals aren’t that of an elite player. He has poor plate discipline posting a below average .30 EYE last season, which is in line with his career numbers. His power numbers are significantly aided by his home ballpark and were significantly aided by luck last season. Phillips HR/FB Ratio of 15% is abnormally high for a player that didn’t rack up 2B’s and 3B’s at the same rate as his HR’s. This suggests he was fortunate with a number of balls just getting over the fence. With some regression this year Phillips could be staring at a similar line to his 2006 season which would place him closer to a 20-20 player than his 30-30 status of a year ago. Add in the lack of plate discipline which makes him a potential batting average risk as well and I don’t see what the difference between Phillips and Ian Kinsler is… Phillips going consistently in the 2nd and 3rd rounds is a significant overdraft of a player without an established track record and is the type of pick that isn’t likely to hold its value come September.
Tim Hudson
Hudson showed up on my overvalued list of pre-season projections and then went out and tossed a gem in Sunday night’s season opener for the Braves. Hudson struggled through a tough first inning in which he threw 28 pitches and then cruised through the next 6 innings on just 50 pitches! He finished up allowing just 3 hits and 2 ER’s in his 7 innings of work while striking out 3. The efficient pitch count, while great news for the Braves, is one of the reasons I’m down on Hudson this season. He’s openly admitted he’s trying to strike fewer batters out and while it’s helping his performance as a pitcher, as a fantasy option he loses some value. Hudson’s not being terribly over-drafted but with his K total likely settling in around 120-130 this season, he needs to be paired with other high K Rate specialists to help keep your team competitive in the strikeout category. This makes Hudson a 3 category pitcher who has the potential to only be elite in really 2 of those categories (ERA and Wins).
Carlos Marmol
Marmol checks in on my overrated list heading into the season for a couple of reasons. Firstly I don’t think the opportunity for Marmol to close is in the immediate future this season. Obviously Kerry Wood will start the season in the closer’s role and because of his past health concerns owners are betting on Marmol getting a chance down the line. I’ve been on the other side of this one for some time as I suggested all season I thought Bob Howry was the favorite for the closer’s role. While Howry didn’t win the role, I do think he’ll be the 8th inning option and the next in line for closing duties should Wood’s health come into question. Secondly I think Marmol’s ability to repeat his incredible 2007 season will be well tested. Statistically Marmol benefited from an incredible .89 Strand Rate as well as a miniscule 4.3% HR/FB Rate, despite posting a 68.7% FB Rate as a whole. As an extreme fly ball pitcher pitching in Wrigley this seems to be a significant anomaly. Finally Marmol’s K and BB Rates seem like they’d be in line for some regression as well. His incredible K Rate of 1.31 seems a bit unsustainable and while Marmol’s .51 BB Rate isn’t terribly out of line Marmol’s control throughout his career has been suspect. This spring Marmol walked 6 batters in his 7 2/3 innings.
Kyle Kendrick
Forgive me if I’m not buying into Kyle Kendrick’s success last season but Kyle Kendrick’s 2007 reminds me a lot of Aaron Small’s 2005 with the Yankees. If you remember Small went 10-0 with a 3.20 ERA in 76 innings despite horrendous peripherals for the 2005 Yankees and was a key cog in their run towards a division championship. Kendrick had similar success last season going 10-4 with a 3.87 ERA in 121 innings with similarly poor peripherals. Kendrick posted a miniscule .45 K Rate and benefited significantly from some good luck with his .74 Strand Rate and low .276 BHIP%. As Tom mentioned earlier in the week Kendrick’s 2007 screams regression, so if you’ve invested in Kendrick this year in deep mixed leagues or NL Only leagues be prepared. Kendrick’s minor league track record, career 4.28 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, also suggest last year was a bit above his head.
Matt Kemp
While the demotion of Juan Pierre to bench duties is certainly a significant boost to Matt Kemp’s value, the more important part (in my mind) of Joe Torre’s announcement Sunday was the fact that Matt Kemp will hit 3rd for the Dodgers on opening day. This shows the level of commitment the Dodgers have to Kemp and suggest he’s in line to eclipse 500 AB’s this season, a number that should allow Kemp to push for a 20-20 season.
Mark
Mar 30, 08 at 10:06 PM
Phillips had 17 of his homers at home and 13 on the road last year. He also had a higher BA and more RBIs on the road so I am not sure what you mean by his home park aiding him. His splits were almost right down the middle. You can call it a career year but what exactly are you basing that on? You can say he had a career year the year before when he brokeout after the trade from Cleveland. The fact is that you cannot accurately claim that it was a career because the guy's ceiling is unknown. He is not the most disciplined hitter but he has power, speed, and should have arguably won a gold glove. I dont think the guy gets enough credit for turning his career around. Now with a change in coaching, he'll actually bat in the heart of the lineup.
I agree with the Hudson analysis except for the first inning assesment. He was one strike away from having a scoreless first. An errant throw to first on a pickoff attempt allowed the runner to move to 3rd with no outs and slow motion, Nick Johnson legged out a double against Francoeur that enabled the 2nd run. Outside of the high pitch count, it wasnt that bad of an inning for Hudson who went into cruise control.
Drew Dinkmeyer
Mar 30, 08 at 10:06 PM
I appreciate the comments Mark and all I can say is we can agree to disagree on Phillips. Seventeen of Thirty HR's is approximately 57% of his total. While his splits last year don't tell a big difference, the underlying indicators do. Phillips road numbers benefited from an abnormally high Road BABIP of .336, while his home numbers suffered from an abnormally low BABIP of .276. Even with those HUGE discrepancies in luck, Phillips posted nearly identical Home/Road splits last year (.811 OPS at home, .821 OPS on the road). If those both regressed you'd be looking at a major difference between his Road and Home numbers like the one we saw in 2006 (home OPS of .799, road OPS of .701).
You can make the argument that we don't know what Phillips ceiling is, but the peripherals onnly show a player improving in the Power department and if the Power is enhanced by some good luck on his HR/FB Rates than we're not seeing a major step forward in his actual skills. Similarly I think Phillips prospect status is overblown. He was a tremendous prospect in the Indians organization but it was all based on tools and not based on production. Phillips career minor league OPS is .750 in over 2700 AB's!
I'm out on a limb on Phillips compared to many others, but I'm ok with that. We'll just have to see the how season goes!
Mark
Mar 30, 08 at 10:06 PM
Drew,
I appreciate the hard work and writeup. I think we'll agree to disagree on Phillips for now. I think a lot of people have jumped on the bandwagon and I would never expect a guy to repeat a 30/30 year but I would expect something closer to 25/25 than 20/20. I would also love to see some better plate discipline but I dont know enough about the Reds organization to bet that will happen. At least Phillips can soak in additional knowledge from Griffey or even a guy like Hatteberg who seems to hang around forever. That veteran leadership is important.
Drew, keep up the great work!
Mark
Mar 30, 08 at 10:06 PM
Drew, saw the note on Phillips as you took another chance to bash the guy. How ironic is it that he hits 2 homeruns the same day. Give the guy a little credit once in a while would ya? I'm starting to think you have a Cleveland background and am sensing some bitterness. That couldnt be true could it? ;)
Drew Dinkmeyer
Mar 30, 08 at 10:06 PM
Mark,
Thanks for checking back in. If you noticed in the most recent note on Phillips I even joked about how he'd probably go on a tear as soon as I took a chance to lay into him again. Of course he hits 3 HR's in two days which goes to show, the lesson is: I need to learn to keep my big mouth shut. As I've said before my criticisms on Phillips aren't that he's a bad player by any means, its simply that I think he was vastly overvalued heading into this season.
As for having a Cleveland bias, no luck there as I've made it aware many times in my writing that I'm a die-hard Cub fan. Now that might be viewed just as poorly these days around Cincinnati with Marty Brennaman leading the charge, but I honestly do my best to leave any bias that I may have out of my analysis. It helps that I don't particularly care for rivalries and I don't openly root against other teams or players. If there's any bias I have it might be towards being a bit harsh on Cubs players (see Theriot, Ryan) or wanting too much to see their young talent get a chance (see Pie, Felix).
It was certainly a hot weekend for Phillips who quickly went from struggling to "on track" in about 7 AB's and you'll be happy to note that Phillips indeed gets some love from me this morning in the player blurbs.
Mark
Mar 30, 08 at 10:06 PM
Hey Drew,
Thanks for the reply... you had to know I'd come lookin for ya!! ;)
I'm glad to see he got out of his funk in a big way. I really have a high opinion for his play both offensively and defensively. He's also been able to turn his career around in a big way. The kid has a lot of heart.
Since you're a Cubs fan, what the heck is going on with them and Matt Murton. I would love to see the guy get a chance to play regularly. If not on the cubs, they should really try to trade him.
Keep up the great work Drew... just had to stop by and give you a hard time ;)
Drew Dinkmeyer
Mar 30, 08 at 10:06 PM
Mark,
Murton's a guy i've touted for a while, probably to a fault, and someone I really think could be a league average OF on a major league team. The type of guy who's great to have on your team when he's cheap, but he's also the type of guy that falls out of favor in big markets where they're looking for a splash at the big production positions (corner OF, 1B, 3B, etc). I think that's where Murton is stuck right now. The Cubs like him enough that they don't want to give him away, but don't like him enough for their own team. Lou Pineilla doesn't seem very interested in seeing him out there on a regular basis (as he couldn't beat out a hampered Cliff Floyd last year) and the Cubs OF is crowded enough this year that he doesn't stand a chance. Murton needs to be traded to ever find a playing time and it's a shame because the guy has proven he can hit at every level and deserves the chance to play on an everyday basis.