Dodgers #5 starter
Things are starting to sort themselves out a bit here. Candidate #1, the $16 million a year Jason Schmidt won’t be ready for Opening Day after undergoing serious shoulder surgery last year. This really isn’t a surprise and even Schmidt himself has no idea when or even if he’ll return. Don’t count on much of anything from him this year. Next in line – Esteban Loaiza, he of the 1-4, 8.64 performance for the Dodgers last season after being claimed off waivers (read: they gave him away) from the A’s. Loaiza has turned in one good and one poor performance this spring, but he’s probably the front-runner. Next in line: ex-Dodger Chan Ho Park who’s been impressive so far this year and some think could be the next Jose Lima for LA. Hong-Chih Kuo who has the most talent of the bunch, but who’s already dealing with a sore elbow this spring and has four past elbow operations to his credit (two of the Tommy John variety). Others: Eric Stults, Jason Johnson, etc. Figure Loaiza gets the nod until Clayton Kershaw or James McDonald is ready.
Dodgers Outfield
Three guys, two spots. The contenders and their various attributes: Matt Kemp – should be the full-time right fielder as there’s not a player in the organization with his talent/upside. Perhaps Kemp sees the bench against tough right-handers, but his is a guy who hit .342/.373/.521 last year. Now that batting average won’t be able to be maintained thanks to an abnormally high .417 BABIP. Think more along the lines of .290/.340/.530. So assuming Kemp is close to a full-time guy and that Juan Pierre and Andre Ethier both are on the Opening Day roster, they’ll fight for scraps in left field. By all indications – see the requisite Joe Torre quotes in the LA Times about Pierre being a “gamer” who “comes to play every day” and read the writing on the wall. Pierre will be the primary left-fielder and hit in the leadoff or #2 spot in the order despite the subpar OBP, utter lack of power, and below average defense. By moving Pierre from center to left field and installing Andruw Jones in center, the Dodgers certainly improve defensively, but Pierre’s sub-.700 OPS is that much more unpalatable in a corner position, but that’s where the Dodgers appear headed.
Giants #5 starter
This is a battle between Jonathan Sanchez and Kevin Correia, though Noah Lowry’s early spring struggles and wrist injury could potentially open the door for both. Sanchez’s first outing this spring wasn’t pretty (one inning, three runs), but don’t read too much into one outing. Correia is probably the favorite right now, coming off an eight start stint last year in which he went 3-1 with a 2.54 ERA. Sanchez is thought to have a slightly higher long-term upside, but we’d bet on Correia right now. Correia’s peripherals aren’t all that spectacular (7.0 K/9, 3.5 BB/9), though he did allow fewer hits than innings pitched last year.
Giants Outfield
It’s tough to get too excited about any of the Giants’ offensive players, especially from a fantasy perspective. On paper, the outfield appears relatively set – LF Dave Roberts, CF Aaron Rowand, RF Randy Winn. That’s far from a spectacular group, and we know that Roberts is good for some DL time and that Winn could fall off the map at any moment, so who would stand to gain should one or both happen? Enter Nate Schierholz and Rajai Davis, themselves being even less inspiring than the starters. Davis is rather interesting and worth a fantasy gamble in deeper leagues. He led off in Wednesday’s game and went 2-for-5 with a stolen base. Davis has top-end speed and once stole 57 bases in 127 games in one minor league season, but that’s not all he does. Davis also has an ability to get on base (.363 clip in 142 at-bats for the Giants last year). We’d love to see the Giants deal Dave Roberts and his contract and install Davis in left field, but that probably would lower the starting lineup’s average age too much for Brian Sabean to consider it. Schierholz is more of a long shot, as though he has some pop in his bat, his 3.6 BB% in well over 500 PA’s between Triple-A Fresno and San Francisco last year relegates him to bench player / AAAA status. I like Davis as an end-game pick right now.
Rockies 2B
I touched on this battle last week, but it’s such a huge decision for the Rockies and one with major fantasy implications, as any Rockie regular is worth owning in most leagues. We’d say right now that Jayson Nix has a slight lead over Jeff Baker, though Baker homered and doubled Tuesday after returning from a bruised elbow (hit by pitch). He was able to return earlier than expected, something that could endear him to manager Clint Hurdle, and after Nix went 0-for-4 with an error on Wednesday, this battle remains close. Edge: Nix. Still firmly in the picture: Baker. Seemingly out: Marcus Giles.
Rockies #5 starter
The Rockies clearly seem to favor Franklin Morales for the #5 starter job, though there’s talk of starting him in the bullpen to keep his innings down this year. I think a lot of folks underestimate Morales, but from what I’ve seen, he’s just a tick below the talent level of the more-heralded young lefties (i.e. Clayton Kershaw and Jacob McGee down on the farm). Sure, there are some command issues here, but expect 25 or so starts from Morales this year, potentially enough to get him to 150 strikeouts. Jason Hirsh is dealing with a sore shoulder that doesn’t appear serious, though if it becomes so, the Rockies may be forced to turn to Kip Wells, and that’s when things could get ugly in Denver. I wouldn’t worry too much about the extreme home/road splits (6.23 / 2.05 last year in eight starts) as that’s too small a sample size from which to draw a meaningful conclusion.
Padres LF
This looks to be between Scott Hairston and Chase Headley. Headley is 6-for-10 with a homer and a pair of doubles in early action while Hairston is 2-for-7. Clearly not enough at-bats to judge here, but you have to figure that if Headley can improve defensively (early returns aren’t all that encouraging on that front) that it’s his job. Manager Bud Black said back in February that Hairston “might” have the inside track on the job. Lots can change between that comment and Opening Day, so this is an ongoing battle. Jody Gerut is also theoretically in this mix and he’s been quite impressive this spring, but figure he’s a #4/#5 OF at best, at least until the inevitable Giles and Edmonds DL stints.
Padres Catcher
We know that after batting .285/.364/.404 last year that Josh Bard is the primary guy here, but should Bard struggle at all this year, Michael Barrett is a tempting guy for Bud Black to consider leaning on. Barrett is obviously past his prime after having three consecutive .800+ OPS seasons for the Cubs, but he’s still just 31 and a guy worth rostering in NL-only leagues requiring two catchers. He’s still just 31 and shouldn’t be totally dismissed on draft day despite the declining walk rate and utter lack of power (even for Petco Park) he showed as a Padre last year (no homers in 133 at-bats and just a 21:2 K:BB).
Rafael Soriano
Soriano is dealing with both a sore elbow and a stomach ailment, but neither is expected to affect his availability for Opening Day. Soriano did have Tommy John surgery back in 2004, so the elbow is something to watch, but we hear about these types of things every spring and they do usually turn out to be minor. Braves GM Frank Wren even said that the elbow isn’t a concern at all, and since this isn’t coming out of J.P. Ricciardi’s mouth, it’s believable. Look for Soriano to be undervalued this spring, as he has the stuff of an elite closer, but his lack of a track record in the role could scare some fantasy owners off. He’s certainly a better option than the likes of Todd Jones and Joe Borowski. If he can get that 8.8 K/9 rate up a bit, his great control (1.8 BB/9 last year) could make Soriano a top five closer.
Ryan Shealy
One guy I have my eye on this spring is Ryan Shealy. Shealy if you recall is a former top prospect in the Rockies organization, and being a first baseman there with Todd Helton ahead of you isn’t the easiest career path (just ask Joe Koshansky). Shealy though has a great opportunity this spring to win a large portion of the 1B/DH at-bats in Kansas City. He’s competing for time with Ross Gload, so the opportunity is certainly there. Shealy, owner of a career .988 minor league OPS, is still getting over the flu, so he’s a bit behind the curve right now, but Ross Gload is still Ross Gload. Shealy might also be competing with Joey Gathright for at-bats (Mark Teahen would move to 1B in that scenario), so he’s certainly no sure thing, but I’d gamble a buck on him in an AL-only league.
Dmitri Young
Normally when we see that a guy has reported to camp at a whopping 298 lbs. (seven above last year’s finishing total), we’d question his dedication to the game, but with Young, you have to factor in the diabetes. Being afflicted with that malady makes it doubly difficult to maintain/lose weight, so we’ll give him a pass. What does that mean on the baseball side? Well, Young is theoretically competing for 1B at-bats with Nick Johnson (returning from a broken leg), though the two-year contract extension Young received last summer would seem to give him the edge. Not to mention the fact he hit .320/.378/.491. Young was a great story last year, conquering some personal demons and winning the NL comeback player of the year award, but his 2008 outlook looks somewhat bleak. Johnson is younger, the owner of a .395 career OBP, and he appears healthy, so look for one or the other to get dealt this spring.
Scott Kazmir
The Rays don’t seemed too worried about Kazmir’s left elbow, but to me it’s a huge red flag. When fantasy owners are investing $25 in a starting pitcher, they don’t want to hear the terms “strain” and “inflammation” in relation to their guy’s elbow. Kazmir is throwing off flat ground and seems okay right now, but caution is advised here. It’s hard to ignore the 239 strikeouts last year and the promise that at age 24, the best could be yet to come, but there’s now at least a slight question about his ability to throw another 200+ innings.
Brian Roberts
By all reports, this is trade that is going to get done eventually – Roberts to the Cubs for some combination of Sean Gallagher, Ronny Cedeno, and others. We’ll see if the Cubs eventually put Felix Pie in the mix (would be a mistake), but it’s hard to believe the Orioles would accept any less. Roberts still has two years left on his contract at an average of just $7 million, so the Orioles should be able to extract a Felix Pie type, not marginal guys like Gallagher. Roberts is still one of the game’s elite leadoff men, coming off a .377 OBP / 50 SB season and his presence in a contender’s lineup could make a huge difference. He is 30, so expect the SB to start a slight downward trend this year, but there’s still a few good years left in him.
Shaun Marcum
For the first time in his career, Marcum enters spring training not having to battle for his job. He’s a lock to open as the team’s #3 or #4 starter. Marcum though is not taking his position for granted. Marcum made his spring debut this week after off-season knee surgery and tossed two scoreless innings, so apparently no injury concerns here. Marcum also reported to camp in the best shape of his career and though we hear about this all the time in spring training, so take this news with the appropriate grain of salt, but being more physically fit can’t hurt. Marcum did wear down in the second half this year and though he did go 8-4 after the break, his WHIP rose from 1.07 to 1.39 and his strikeout rate dropped from 0.89 to 0.67 K/I. Marcum will never be a #1 starter, but I really like what I saw out of him last year and early in camp, so far so good.
Jair Jurrjens
Jurrjens has emerged as the leading candidate to fill in as the team’s #5 starter, at least early on this year. With Chuck James dealing with a shoulder problem, Jurrjens could get at least a month of big league starts and he’s intriguing. He pitched a perfect three innings on Wednesday to give him a 1.80 ERA in five innings so far this spring. He’s battling Jeff Bennett and Jo-Jo Reyes for the job, but a couple more performances like Wednesday could seal the deal. Jurrjens profiles as a future #3 starter. He’s not going to be a big strikeout guy (career 7.2 minor league K/9 and just 13 K in 30.2 IP with the Tigers last year), but his command is excellent (2.2 BB/9) and do you really want to bet against the Braves when it comes to evaluating young pitching talent that they traded for? With Mike Hampton being another injury risk and John Smoltz probably good for a DL stint this year, Jurrjens could be in line for 15-20 starts, giving him some decent short-term fantasy value.
Moises Alou
It wouldn’t feel right if we didn’t have a Moises Alou injury to talk about and Alou was “happy” to oblige us just a couple weeks into spring training. With the news that Alou would miss 4-to-6 weeks with a hernia, Endy Chavez becomes a viable fantasy option. Don’t go crazy to acquire Chavez’s services, but there is some stolen base upside there and he won’t hurt you in average. The Mets though were already relatively short-handed in the outfield having traded away Lastings Milledge and Carlos Gomez and watching Shawn Green retire, so don’t be surprised if they look for another option on the trade market. Chavez’s skills are best-suited for a 4th outfielder role anyway. Even though the over/under on games played for Alou this year is around 110, he’s still productive when healthy, as his last sub-.900 OPS was in 2003, but this injury certainly isn’t a surprise and it won’t be the last one of 2008 for the 41 year-old either.
Manny Parra
That sound you here is Parra’s stock continuing to rise. Parra tossed three scoreless innings with four strikeouts on Wednesday and now has a 1.80 ERA this spring. He’s competing with a host of candidates for the #5 starter job (though there’s room for two until Yovani Gallardo returns in April) with Chris Capuano, Dave Bush, Carlos Villanueva, and Claudio Vargas. Parra has to be a bit of a long shot, but his upside may force the issue. Bush got rocked on Wednesday, so he’s probably losing this battle. Parra was pretty impressive in his cup of coffee with the Brewers last year, striking out 26 in 26.1 innings. Nice sleeper material here.
Randy Wolf
Normally I take spring training results with a grain of salt. Often guys are shaking of the rust from an inactive winter, are working on a new pitch or new delivery, or are simply slow starters. Wolf’s start this spring is concerning however. He’s coming off September shoulder surgery and was signed by the Padres to be their #4 starter, so his first two starts (four outs, six earned runs) has to concern the Padres’ brass. You have to at least pay attention to a guy with his past success pitching in baseball’s most notorious pitchers’ park, but Wolf is also a guy who hasn’t made it through a full season since 2003. So far, it appears likely that he’ll maintain that streak in 2008. If Wolf were to go down, the Padres #4 and #5 starters would likely be Justin Germano and Clay Hensley at the start of the season, with Mark Prior hopefully back by May. Do the Padres risk digging a huge hole for themselves to start the season, or do they start looking seriously at a guy like Kyle Lohse?
