Runners Stranded Percentage:
Measures the percentage of batters that reach base but do not score (more
specifically, are not credited to a pitcher’s Earned Runs). The average
stranded percentage for starters is .71. Pitchers with Stranded
Percentages of about .75 usually have successful ERA and Win totals.
Typically, veteran pitchers work around good hitters and bear down on the
hitters whom they believe they can retire.
Below are the top 30 starting pitchers who recorded a Runners Stranded Percentage which was above .74 in 2007
The pitchers we're going to identify as prime candidates to post production decreases in 2008 have been selected based on a Runners Stranded % which is greater than 5 percent in comparison to their 3 year history (if present), while also not posting a commensurate Strike-Out ratio. Additionally any 1st year players who posted a Runners Stranded % greater that .78, without a K/Inning ratio above .90 are at risk not to repeat their production.
The starting pitchers who have met my criteria and are projected to see a downturn in theirproduction per game are: Dan Haren, John Lackey, Oliver Perez, Brad Penny, Fausto Carmona, Noah Lowery (Inj), Doug Davis, Orlando Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, Kyle Kendrick, and Tom Gorzelanny. I am projecting (in our 2008 software), that each of these pitchers will post an ERA which is significantly greater than what they posted in 2007. Additionally some will likely see a rise in their WHIP and fall in their Win totals in 2008.
As an historical reference, last year in this exercise we identified 9 pitchers who were above their mean in Runners Stranded % from the previous year and projected a drop in production for:Looking back, we were 7 out of 9 in identifying the pitchers who would not live up to their previous season output. The previous season we were a perfect 10 for 10. Obviously there is validity in using this indicator.
Jered Weaver, Mike Maroth, Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Chad Billingsley, Woody Williams, Bronson Arroyo, Justin Verlander, and John Maine.
Runners Stranded Percentage can be found in our Player Production Charts and is built into the 2008 pitcher forecasts. Fantistics Subscribers can also view the outliers during the season within our premium subscriber Player Charts database.
In a few days we'll touch on the Pitchers with Stranded Percentages below .68 and who among the group we expect to excel in 2008.
Have a great weekend,
Publisher & Statistician
Fantistics Fantasy Sports