Shaun Marcum – With the top three starters in Toronto’s rotation garnering so much attention, it is easy for Marcum to get overlooked, but he is certainly worth a look in all fantasy formats. Last year was a semi-breakout season for Marcum as he very solidly stepped in as a starter due to injuries to the Toronto staff. He finished the year with 25 games started (60% of which were quality starts) with 12 wins. While he was, as I said, very solid last season, he is already showing improvement through the first two games that could indicate an even better 2008 season. He is 1 – 0 with a 2.57 ERA and a 0.786 WHIP through his first two starts. Those are very good peripherals, but there are other signs that are more encouraging to me. Last year, Marcum’s K/9 ratio was 6.91 and his BB/9 was 2.77. In the first two games so far he has struck out 16 batters in 14 innings, yielding just two walks to give him a K/9 of 10.29 and a BB/9 of 1.29. If Marcum is able to continue to strike out batters at this rate while issuing very few walks, he is in for a very nice season.
Carlos Pena - Carlos Pena’s power came as a surprise to many last season, and while I expected him to continue to flash that power this season, I did not think he was in line for another 46 HR season. Pena is making an early push to change my mind though; he homered twice last night giving him 5 through just 10 games. Part of the reason why is Pena’s FB% entering last night’s game was 50% on the season, even higher than his 44.5% that he posted last year. Furthermore, Pena’s GB% is also higher: 45% compared to 37.5% last season. Those fly ball percentages may result in another 40 HR plus season, but with fly balls and ground balls making up 95% of his balls in play that leaves only 5% for line drives. This means that Pena’s power may come at some serious expense to his batting average this season. He was hitting just .176 entering last night’s ball game. Further concern for a drop in batting average is Pena’s EYE. Last season Pena made some strides with an EYE of .73, but so far this season he has struck out 14 times versus just 4 walks giving him an EYE of .27, which is horrendous.
Kevin Millwood - Not too many pitchers are as hot as Kevin Millwood to start the season, but can his success continue? I’m very skeptical to say the least. While Millwood’s 1.29 ERA through 21 innings to start the season might point towards him regaining his form from his Atlanta days, more important statistics say otherwise. First of all, his great ERA is in lieu of a 1.33 WHIP. Part of the reason for his high WHIP is that Millwood has walked 9 batters in 21 IP. Meanwhile he has struck out just 11. It is highly unlikely that Millwood could continue his success with such an awful K rate (.52/IP) and awful BB rate (.43/IP). Last season Millwood posted better K rates and BB rates and still it led to a 5.16 ERA. More disturbingly, his expected ERA was actually higher than that (5.46). Don’t be fooled by Millwood’s hot start.
Gil Meche – Meche had a good start to his Kansas City career last season, but the Royal’s ace suffered through his 3rd subpar start in 3 outings last night. There is definitely reason for concern. Even though Meche’s ERA was 3.67 last season, his expected ERA was 3.97. Also, Meche posted a QS% of 68; in the previous three seasons he was unable to post a quality start in even half of his games started. A key to Meche’s success last season was his control. He lowered his walk rate to 2.58/9 from 4.52/9 in 2006 and 4.05/9 in 2007. However, through three games, Meche has already walked 10 batters in just 17 and 2/3rds IP. Getting those walks under control will be key to whether or not Meche is able to turn it around, as his strikeout totals thus far are still good. So, watch his next start to see if he makes any adjustments or shows any signs of regaining his control.
There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning. Members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here. Not a member? Join today.
