Clayton
Kershaw - SP
LA Dodgers
The
Dodgers were impressed with Clayton Kershaw's 13 scoreless IP in spring
training this March and so were we. Kershaw allowed just 5 hits and 3
walks
while striking out 15 but the Dodgers wisely decided to season the
24-year-old left-hander
a few more weeks in AA.
That
is where Clayton finished 2007, pitching 24.2 IP over 5 starts in AA,
going 1-2 with a 3.65 ERA, holding opponents to a .196 OBA. That was
due in
large part to a .243 BHIP% but even more impressive was his .208 OBA in
97.1 single-A
IP with a .323 BHIP% Clayton also fanned 12.3/9 in A ball and 10.5/9 in
AA, but
command was in issue as he walked 4.6/9 in A and 6.2 in AA.
Those
rates are a bit of a mystery as Clayton walked just 1.2/9 in his first
season of pro ball in 2006 and his mechanics are clean and should be
easily
repeatable. Clayton has strong athletic ability and it should not take
long for
him to hone his motion and develop his command.
Like
Franklin Morales, Kershaw represents the rare combination of top-end
velocity and left-handedness. Clayton has reportedly thrown close to
100 mph several
times and his 6-3, 210-pound frame, which is already strong through the
hips,
imparts scary late life to his fastball, which cruises near the
mid-90s. That
late life is part of his control issues as he struggles to reign in his
gift
and he does not always use his life effectively. Clayton backs that up
with two
secondary pitches including a terrific, nearly vertical, plus curve and
developing
circle change.
Clayton's
season debut in AA on Friday was not sharp but I am very anxious to
watch this season unfold. I think Clayton is ready to explode. Given a
few
weeks in
Long
Term Fantasy Grade - A
Seas Lvl
W
L ERA IP
K/9 BB/9 HR/9
AVG WHIP
2006 R 2
0 1.95 37.0
13.1 1.2 0.0
.212 0.89
2007 A 7
5 2.77 97.1
12.3 4.6 0.4
.208 1.25
2007 AA 1
2 3.65 24.2
10.5 6.2 1.4
.196 1.38
Nick Blackburn
– SP
Minnesota Twins
The Twins’ top prospect starts the season in the
big club’s rotation while
Francisco Liriano is stretching out in the minors for a turn or two. He
pitched
well in his MLB debut as a starter this week, limiting the Angels to
one run
over 7 IP.
The 6-4, 205 right-hander turned 26 back on February 24th and was the
Twins’
29th round pick in 2001. He leads with a low-90s fastball that he can
pump to
95 MPH when he grabs four seams instead of two. What sets him apart
however is
a plus cutter which helps him deal with left-handed hitters. He backs
those two
pitches up with a decent curve, and a quality change.
Nick was 7-3 with a 2.11 ERA in 17 AAA starts last year. He pitched
110.2 IP
allowing 96 hits for a .235 OBA (.259 BHIP%) while walking
just 12 for an
incredible BB rate of 0.9/9. He struck out 57 for a 4.6/9 K
rate. We are
going to look at 2007 exclusively because Nick lost most of 2006
recovering
from the effects of a knee issue that took two procedures to fix. He
slimmed
down, and worked his way back into good physical condition for last
season.
Low-K rate pitchers face some hurdles and there a few things I like to
see in
their indicators. First they have to limit their walks and Nick's 1.6/9
BB rate
in 8 AA appearances last year combined with his 0.9/9 rate in AAA shows
he can
do that.
I also like
to see a low HR/9 rates and Nick's indicators
are strong there as well. He limited AAA opponents to 0.57 HR/9 last
year and
in his previous full season in AA, he allowed 0.75 HR/9.
The
last thing I like to see in low-K rate pitchers is the ability to throw
ground balls. In AAA last year, Nick induced 179 GBs against 59 line
drives and
88 flyballs. Additionally he drew 189 balls to his infielders as
opposed to 153
to his outfielders ....
Check,
check and check.
Of
course, a low-K rate pretty much precludes his potential as a top of
the
rotation starter but that doesn't mean he can't be useful. The problem
here is
that he is listed at the Twins top prospect and that may equate to a
high-return player in people's minds. That is probably not the case
here and you
should not chase him as if he is.
There
is also no guarantee that Nick sticks when Liriano returns but he will
have to pitch his way off the big roster. Additionally he has very
little left
to accomplish in the minors, so the bigger concern would be a move to
the bullpen
if he gets caught in a numbers game in the rotation.
Long
Term Fantasy Grade - B-
Seas Lvl
W
L ERA IP
K/9 BB/9 HR/9
AVG WHIP
2006 AA 7
8 4.42
132.1 5.5
2.5 0.7 .274
1.35
2007 AA 3
1 3.08 38.0
4.2 1.6 0.2
.251 1.13
2007 AAA 7
3 2.11
110.2 4.6
0.9 0.5 .235
0.98
2007 MLB 0
2 7.71 11.2
6.1 1.5 1.5
.366 1.80
2008 MLB 0
1 1.29 7.0
6.7 1.4 0.9
.313 1.45
Dana Eveland – SP
Oakland A’s
Dana
Eveland won a rotation slot this spring with 5 solid outings in which
he allowed 3 runs in 21.0 IP on 19 hits, 5 walks and 17 Ks. That looks
pretty
good until you get to his career MLB numbers which look like 2-4, 7.55
in 41
games, 64.1 IP total, in separate tours with the Brewers and
D-Backs over
parts of the last three seasons. He gave up 87 hits in those 64.1 IP
with a
.324 OBA and 2.60 WHIP. That WHIP is fueled by a 5.4 BB/9 in the
majors. The
only good news in his career MLB line is an 8.1 K/9 rate.
The
24 year old left-hander goes 6-1, 258 and throws 4 offerings,
including a fastball, slider, change and curve. He came from the
D-Backs to the
A's in the off season Dan Haren trade, and the A's were interested
because of
his strong minor league resume and the chance he had to develop in a
strong
pitching organization in Arizona. Dana lost much of last season with
In
20 appearances and 19 starts in AAA in 06, Dana went 6-5 with a 2.74
ERA and
1.07 WHIP. He allowed just 71 hits in 105 IP fanning 9.3/9 while
walking 3.5/9.
Opponents hit just .193 off him due in part to a slightly favorable
.265 BHIP%
That belies some skills and being lefty, Dana will get a couple more
looks than
a RHP with the same resume. His conditioning has always been in
question, as is
of course his inability to port his success to the majors.
In
his season debut yesterday, Dana looked strong, fanning 7 Indians
over
7 IP allowing just one run on 6 hits and a walk in a tidy 101 pitches.
There
are reasons to believe he can pull it together at the MLB level and
given
yesterday's start, there are certainly reasons to roll the dice on this
one and
place a spec claim. Keep in mind that it would be a roll of the dice
and I will
be interested to watch his home and away split this season.
In
deep leagues it is probably time to place the claim if Dana is
available in
case he backs yesterday's start with a strong second
start causing his
disappearance from FA pools across the country.
Long
Term Fantasy Grade - C
Seas Lvl
W
L ERA IP
K/9 BB/9 HR/9
AVG WHIP
2005 MLB 1
1 5.97 31.2
6.5 5.1 0.5
.309 1.83
2006 AAA 6
5 2.74
105.0 9.4
3.5 0.3 .193
1.07
2006 MLB 0
3 8.13 27.2
10.4 5.2 1.3
.333 1.99
2007 A+ 0
0 0.00 5.0
16.2 3.6 0.0
.066 0.60
2007 AAA 1
0 1.95 27.2
4.8 3.2 0.0
.271 1.41
2007 MLB 1 0 14.40
5.0
5.4 9.0 0.0
.362 2.60
