Jose Contreras – Contreras has somewhat bounced back from last season’s disaster. He picked up his third win last night, pitching 7 innings of one run ball to lower his ERA under 4. Contreras has been better this year, mainly due to inducing more groundballs. His GB:FB ration last season was 1.24, and it is 1.25 for his career. However, this season it has increased dramatically to 2.37. This has helped Contreras to lower his HR/9 from 1 last season to .45 this season. He has also lowered his BB/9, and just about the only negative thing about his numbers so far this season is that his K rate is decreasing for the 5th straight season (every year since his rookie season). Look for Contreras to be much better than last season if he keeps pitching like this.
Kevin Youkilis – Kevin Youkilis is a wonderful ball player, but you might want to sell high on him, as his current power numbers, at least in terms of homeruns, are unlikely to continue. Youkilis’s current HR rate is 4.6, well above his HR rate of any year from 2004 – 2007 (2.9/1.1/2.0/2.6). Youkilis certainly has value in a loaded Boston lineup, and he will hit for a decent average. But, I think it is unlikely that he tops 20 homers on the season, even with his hot start.
Lyle Overbay – Overbay appears to be regaining the doubles stroke that made him valuable during 2004 – 2006. After hitting just 2 doubles during his first 32 games, Overbay doubled 4 times in his last 3 games before last night. However, there are concerns that Overbay is not the same player he was during that time. We will give him a pass on last season’s poor performance because of his hand injury, but so far this season he is hitting just .279/.388/.378 despite a lucky singles average of .307. Also, his HR rate is a pitiful 0.8. Part of Overbay’s problems have come due to a decreased contact rate. His career average is 80%, but his contact rate so far this season is just 74%.
Jon Garland – Garland took a no decision last night, despite hurling 8 shutout innings. Over the course of those 8 innings, Garland gave up 4 hits and 3 walks while striking out 2. When Garland is successful, he is able to get ground ball outs, and half of his recorded outs last night came via the groundball. However, Garland does not strike out many batters, and last night’s performance, although the end result was good, did nothing to make me think he could become more consistent. At the beginning of the year, I felt that Garland was a good value pick, but his career K rate (.52), which is not very good in the first place, has actually dropped this year to .23.
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