Alexi Casilla- MIN- Hot- Casilla has been on fire since being inserted in the lineup to fill injury holes. He is hitting .340 with 12 RBI and 7 runs in 12 games. A major factor in Casilla’s success has been good fortune, with a BHIPx of .312. Don’t expect him to be able to keep up this pace over the long haul.
Jered Weaver- LAA- Cold- Consistency has been a big issue for Weaver this year and a lack of it reared its ugly head again last night. After throwing 8 shutout innings in his last start Weaver got pounded by the Blue Jays, getting charged with 6 runs in 4+ innings on 10 hits. Control was not an issue, as he walked no one and threw 74 of his 95 pitches for strikes. The problem was that he was looking like a batting practice pitcher. When Weaver is good, he has been very good, but when he is bad he is terrible. You don’t know what you are going to get from him in any given start, so having Weaver in your lineup is a roll of the dice.
Chad Bradford- BAL- Cold- Bradford’s ERA actually stayed the same last night, as none of the 3 runs scored against him (all three batters he faced) were unearned. Although his ERA of 2.65 looks respectable, it is not representative of the job he has done this year. Sadly, Bradford’s .304 opponents’ batting average is more indicative of his performance. Bradford was one of the highlighted players in Moneyball, but his hoped-for future has not panned out. Over the course of his last 13 appearances, covering 7-1/3 IP, he has allowed 15 hits. Bradford is almost single-handedly inventing a new bullpen role, the ROOGY. Unfortunately, too often Bradford fails to get the “one out” part of that acronym. He has 7 holds, but none in the last 3 weeks. There is very little fantasy value there, not even in leagues that count holds.
Grant Balfour- TB- Rise Value- With Troy Percival injured, Balfour, the closer from AAA Durham might end up with some time in that role for the Rays. Manager Joe Maddon has not defined what Balfour will be called on to do, but since he has improved his control, issuing 10 walks in 23-2/3 IP at AAA, Maddon feels more confident in putting Balfour wherever he might be needed. As a sleeper for some saves, Balfour wouldn’t be a bad pick up.
Jose Contreras- CHA- Hot- Contreras threw his 6th quality start in his last 7 outings, although he ended up with a no decision for his 7 IP effort. He allowed just 1 run on 5 hits and 3 walks while striking out 5. Contreras has enjoyed some good fortune recently, as his .248 BHIP% is lower than any he has finished with in the last 4 seasons. Not coincidentally, his ERA of 2.89 is better than any full-season mark in his major league career. Contreras continues to increase his K ratio, which now stands at .63/IP and keep his walk ratio down, now at .25. He has had hot starts before, in 2005 and 2006, and then faded rapidly. Although there are no glaring indicators, this historical trend makes a “sell high” move not unreasonable.
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