Hunter Pence:
Pence extended his hitting streak to 9 games on Sunday while effectively carrying the Astros offense against the Dodgers. Pence drove in 2 and scored another 2 accounting for 4 of the Astros 8 runs with a 3-4 effort that included a 2B. The outing raised Pence’s batting average to .273 on the season. Much has been made of Pence’s early season struggles and the truth is a bit too much was expected of the youngster after his stunning 2007 debut where he hit .322/.360/.539 in 456 AB’s. Pence’s high K Rate and high average on balls in play last year should’ve been an indicator that the .322 batting average was a bit of a mirage, the problem in forecasting was knowing whether Pence’s impressive power (12.2% extra base hit rate) was a fluke or not. A look at Pence’s month-by-month splits in 2007 shows a hitter who the league was adjusting to as his Slugging % dropped from .593 in May all the way down to .480 in September at the same time Pence’s K Rate was climbing. Based on last season’s monthly splits I think a .280-.285/.325-.335/.465-.480 would be a more reasonable expectation for the youngster. That type of production should put him close to a .285-80-20-90-10 type season which would fall short of some of the lofty pre-season expectations.
Miguel Tejada:
Don’t ever underestimate the difference in the quality of the NL and the AL. After four consecutive years of declining Slugging % in the AL East, Tejada looks re-born in the NL Central. There isn’t a bigger drop in competition Tejada could’ve made and its showing early in the 2008 season. A 2-4 effort on Sunday raised his line to .342/.380/.539 and suddenly Tejada’s performing back at his MVP level of yester-year. Taking a look at Tejada’s peripherals we see a .291 BHIP% and a .352 BABIP that is helping some of the .342 batting average, but everything else looks in line. His EYE is a bit reduced thanks to a slightly reduced BB Rate, but his K Rate is right in line and his extra base hit rate has jumped considerably. This suggests Tejada’s just seeing a bit more he likes to hit early in the season and being pitched around a bit less than his Baltimore days (this will happen with Lance Berkman hitting behind you). All signs point to a pretty legitimate improvement from Tejada’s baseline the last few years and suggest the switch to the NL Central has brought along some increased power potential out of the SS. In the AL blurbs yesterday I noted trying to sell a guy like Jeter and look for a better, less regarded SS like Furcal. Tejada fits this bill perfectly as well as another SS with enough concerns that owners will believe they’re selling high. Tejada’s improvements look legitimate and while the pre-season concerns were certainly justified, it looks like Tejada should be able to get back to his Real Age 31 production (2006), despite turning the clock 2 years forward earlier in the year.
Brewers Bullpen:
A week after suggesting I didn’t think Gagne would lose the closer’s job, here we are. Gagne took Jason Isringhausen’s lead and removed himself from the closer’s role with comments through the media indicating he had lost confidence and felt out of place in the role. Ned Yost was left with little choice but to oblige and remove him from the time being and the first day out the Brewers were faced with a save situation. Salomon Torres got the first shot but was pulled in favor of matchups after allowing 2 runners on. Brian Shouse came in for the situational save with Guillermo Mota warming up behind him. As David mentioned in yesterday’s blurbs, Mota seems to be the guy who has the best chance of success, but it looks like Yost values experience in the role and has turned to Torres for the time being. From my vantage point, this is an absolute mess and the Brewers are going to end up going by the dreaded bullpen-by-committee for the time being. I’d imagine this last 2-3 weeks until Gagne has some good outings in low pressure situations and then he’s thrust back into the role. If I had to speculate on saves I’d look towards Torres immediately, but to be honest I’m avoiding this situation if I can. There’s going to be a number of games in which the Brewers are mix and matching pieces late and anyone could end up getting saves. I still think Gagne’s the guy long-term and I’m willing to bet he clears the 30 save plateau this season, so I wouldn’t drop him yet.
Troy Glaus:
Glaus returned from the tricep injury he suffered on Friday and went 2-3 with a Run and another BB. Glaus’ early season production has been underwhelming as he’s hit just .232/.347/.360 and has just 1 HR, but the indicators are actually pretty good. Glaus’ EYE has risen early on in the season with an increase in his BB Rate and a drop in his K Rate. Glaus extra base hit rates also aren’t completely out of line compared to the 38 HR season in 2006 as he’s producing extra base hits in 11.2% of his AB’s compared to 12.0% in 2006. The problem is to this point in the season they’re almost all 2B’s as his miniscule HR/FB Rate of 2.4% is hiding some of his power potential. Similarly Glaus is suffering from some horrid luck on batted balls in play with just a .181 BHIP%. There is some significant upside for Glaus as the indicators suggest there is some room for growth. I still think Glaus is a back-end 3B option in 10-team mixed leagues, but those in deeper leagues should really jump at the chance to trade for him while his value is low.
Carlos Beltran:
I have mixed feelings on Beltran because the majority of the indicators suggest his early season slump has largely been luck induced. His .160 BHIP% and his miniscule 8.1% HR/FB Rate both show plenty of room for growth, while his solid .93 EYE and terrific 14% extra base hit rate show impressive peripherals. However the one number that jumps out at me and concerns me a bit is his 46% GB Rate. Beltran’s had leg problems each of the last few years and I’m a bit concerned that the increased GB Rate (he typically sits in the mid-high 30’s) is a result of an inability to get lift from his legs and that he’s coming over the top of the ball a bit more and as a result generating more ground balls. The other indicators are so impressive that I’m still buying into Beltran as a nice buy low opportunity, but the lack of SB attempts and the leg concerns make me believe you’re buying low on more of a 4th round type player than the 2nd round player he was drafted as.
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