Jesus Flores:
We haven’t talked too much about the young catcher in Washington, but Jesus Flores is taking advantage and taking hold of the starting catching role for the Nationals. Flores notched his 10th double of the season on Sunday in a 1-4 effort against Dan Haren and is now hitting .344/.417/.578 on the season with 12 extra base hits in his first 68 AB’s. As Schuyler mentioned a few weeks back, Flores has shown some serious power potential at the lower minors and his strong FB Rate (eclipsing 60%) at the major league level this season suggests the power production is real. What isn’t real is Flores’ batting average which is currently supported by a .465 BABIP and a .297 BHIP%. Flores’ 28% strikeout rate will make it nearly impossible for the catcher to hit above .300, but he has already made himself note-worthy in deep leagues and his power potential is making him a viable option in 2 catcher traditional formats as well. I wouldn’t expect much more than a 2nd catcher type out of the youngster for now. As Schuyler previously mentioned the learning curve for Rule 5 acquisitions becomes difficult to project because many times they have little experience above A-ball which is what we’re dealing with here. Flores has also seen a recent increase in his K Rate. After striking out just 8 times in his first 36 AB’s (22%), Flores has struck out 11 times in his last 32 AB’s (34%). My guess is this is an adjustment period the youngster is hitting as the league has gotten more tape on him. I’d expect Flores to be a .260’s hitter who could challenge 15 HR’s over a full season with 20+ 2B’s. He should be the Nats starting catcher even when the veterans return, but fantasy owners should exercise a bit of caution with their long-term expectations for Flores in 2008.
Chad Tracy:
Tracy homered for the 2nd time since returning from the disabled list and has gotten off to a quick start hitting .300/.333/.650 in his first 20 AB’s. While the DBacks have publicly stated Mark Reynolds and Conor Jackson have nothing to worry about from Chad Tracy, he’s going to get plenty of AB’s in the early-going with Eric Byrnes and Conor Jackson both banged up. I’m a big Tracy supporter and I believe he’ll eventually supplant Reynolds as the everyday 3B when everyone returns to health as he’s simply a more polished hitter and offers some needed punch from the LH side in the middle of the DBacks lineup. Paul mentioned the decreasing power trends for Tracy but I don’t put too much stock in those as Tracy was dealing with a rib injury in all of 2007. He’s just turned 28, so he should be in the peak of his power years and he hits in a favorable home-park. I think Tracy eclipses 20 HR’s from here on out while hitting .290 and driving in 70+ Runs. He’s not getting enough attention right now. In deep leagues he should be scooped up immediately as he’ll end up offering good position flexibility as well likely ending up with 1B/3B and possibly OF. Now’s the time to get ahead of the curve because he’ll get an immediate playing time and start showing the DBacks he’s a better option than Mark Reynolds on an everyday basis.
Tim Lincecum:
It was a little over a month ago that I suggested an ideal opportunity for Lincecum owners to sell high. One month later, Lincecum’s record sits at 7-1 with a tidy 2.33 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP. Clearly I was bit early as there was still plenty of “elite” value left to squeeze out of Lincecum as Timmy went 3-1 with a 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 42 K’s in 47 1/3 innings. However there are some warning signs that suggest my recommendation wasn’t as incorrect as it was early. Lincecum’s peripherals have all settled back into the same exact range as last season, the only difference is his actual numbers look like there has been a huge improvement because of a High Strand Rate (.81) and some unexpected support from the Giants offense leading to 7 wins. Lincecum’s producing Top 5-10 starter production currently and while I do think he’ll be a Top 25 starter from here on out, if you can get Top 5-10 starter compensation for Lincecum I’d move quickly. If you can get a struggling slugger like Prince Fielder + something else for Lincecum (which current production suggests you could), it would be an absolute steal! I noted a month back I moved Lincecum for Adrian Gonzalez, which looks like I sold a bit lower than I could have had I held on a bit longer. Lincecum gets the Nats in his next start which should be another very favorable matchup before going into Colorado. I think now is an ideal time to look into moving Lincecum while his value is at its highest.
Adrian Gonzalez:
Adrian Gonzalez’s power just continues to show strong growth. With his 16th HR of the season, Gonzalez now has 30 extra base hits in his first 228 AB’s for a 13.5% extra base hit rate, topping his 12.2% rate last season in which he racked up 79 extra base hits. Along with the increased power production a significant increase in his RBI Rate has also come along. This makes sense given the extra power but to lead the league in RBI’s hitting in a terrible San Diego lineup seems a bit too much to ask. Gonzalez has also had a bit of good fortune in his HR/FB Rate with over 21% of his FB’s leaving the yard (an increase of over 7-9% over his career average. Whether that’s a true growth in power or a bit of good fortune early in the season only time will tell, but I’m putting out feelers for Gonzalez right now if I’m an AGonz owner. I do believe the power growth is real and Gonzalez will approach 35 HR’s and 40+ 2B’s, with 110+ RBI’s, but I also think the power numbers will start to slow a bit, and similar to Lincecum if you can move him for a Top 5 1B production, it’s worth a look.
Homer Bailey:
With Josh Fogg going on the DL it looks like Homer Bailey’s going to be the next in line for a shot at the rotation. Given the success Jay Bruce has had in his first week in the big leagues you have to figure the Reds aren’t going to be as shy moving forward with promoting younger players. Bailey’s been a popular name for fantasy owners as he was often lumped in with Phil Hughes, Clay Buchholz, Yovani Gallardo, Clayton Kershaw, and Joba Chamberlain amongst the elite pitching prospects in the game, but he disappointed owners last year with his call-up, showing good pure stuff but raw command and poor overall results. This year in AAA he’s having pretty similar levels of success to 2007. He’s still posting good, but not great, K Rates and still struggling with his control, posting a .43 BB Rate. I wasn’t high on Bailey last year and I’m still not sold there have been big improvements this year either. A young pitcher with inconsistent secondary stuff and spotty command pitching in Great American Ballpark worries me quite a bit. Bailey will get his fair share of pub this week, but I believe he’s a speculative pickup and should only be pursued in dynasty type formats or the deepest of NL only leagues where his K potential could be useful. As a prospect I think he has a similar ceiling as the other prospects he was mentioned in the same breath as, but I think its going to take more time for Homer to get there than the others because of the lack of command along with some maturity issues that have supposedly impacted his willingness to learn. I’m not a big believer and suggest avoiding the hype on this youngster.
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