Jake Peavy:
Not the type of start Peavy owners were hoping for after seeing an inept Mariners’ offense on the schedule but one they’ll be able to swallow. Peavy took his 5th loss of the season on Sunday allowing 3 ER’s on 10 Hits and 1 BB in 6 innings of work, while striking out 6. The high hit total was the result of some bad luck on balls in play as 9 of the hits were 1B’s and the 6:1 K:BB ratio for Peavy shows the usual dominance and command we’d look for from the ace. With Peavy picking up losses in 2 of the last 3 starts, the Padres offense clearly in shambles, and the lingering concerns about the elbow injury earlier in the year, I think now might be a pretty good time to put out feelers to the Peavy owner in your league. As we’ve discussed many times in the past, Wins are a difficult stat to chase, so the perception that Peavy’s value will be limited by the Padres ability to score runs might create enough of an opportunity to buy a tad low on a fantasy ace.
Jonathan O. Sanchez:
Sanchez was fantastic yet again on Sunday as he threw his 8th quality start in his last 9 outings limiting the A’s to just 5 base-runners and 1 ER in his 7 innings of work. As usual with Sanchez the K Rate was there as well as he mowed down 6 more, helping him eclipse the 100 K mark for the season. More impressively though has been the improved command and an increased GB Rate in June that have led to the “true” improvements in his game. Sanchez has walked only 14 batters in his 40 2/3 June innings and has thrown 63% of his pitches for strikes during the month, up from his usual 59-60% range. Command has always been a problem for Sanchez, so this latest month in which he’s shown great command is an incredibly inspiring sign for the youngster. If he can maintain this new level of control, he’ll immediately become one of the 30 best SP’s in all of fantasy baseball because of the high K Rate combined with the strong home pitcher’s park and the improved command. I’ve been hoping something clicked with Sanchez this year and if there’s ever been a time to believe that it’s happened, now is it. I’m not totally sold that this level of command is the new baseline as Sanchez has always struggled in this department, but I’m holding out hope that we have a legitimate step forward.
Ryan Ludwick:
Ludwick’s struggled mightily in June, posting a .228/.298/.406 line that has brought his average all the way down from .323 to .285. We cited earlier in the season that Ludwick’s high K Rate would ultimately lead to a prolonged slump that brought the batting average back closer to the expected .270-.290 range, which has been the case of late, but looking at Ludwick’s peripheral statistics from month-to-month the vast deterioration in skill that we’d expect just isn’t there. Ludwick’s K Rate has gone from 32.3% in April to 20.7% in May to a more normalized 23.8% in June. The real drop-off has come in his extra base hit rate which has gone from a ridiculous 19.1% in April to a still ridiculous 17.2% in May to a more realistic 11.9% in June. Just as a reference point, Ryan Howard’s last two seasons have been at 12.7% (2007) and 14.4% (2006), so the 11.9% rate is still pretty darn good. While Ludwick’s first two months of the season were not only unsustainable but likely unrepeatable, Ludwick will still have plenty of value going forward as a power hitting OF option. His high K Rate will likely lead to quite a bit of streakiness but he should be good for another 12-17 HR’s the rest of the year while making a run at 110 RBI’s and a .270-.290 batting average the rest of the way.
Jason Bergmann:
Bergmann notched his 3rd consecutive quality start limiting the Orioles to just 1 ER in his 7 innings of work and lowering his ERA to 4.26 on the season. While Bergmann looks to be showing significant improvements in his performance of late, posting a 1.35 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in his last 3 appearances, Bergmann’s peripherals are actually disintegrating. After posting terrific K Rates in the first 2 months of the year (1.05), his K Rate has dropped down below .50 in June. Along with the disintegrating K Rate is a high FB Rate that’s settling in above 60%. While Bergmann looks like a safe option in the midst of a hot streak, his peripherals are actually deteriorating. If you’re a Bergmann owner, now might be a nice time to sell high.
Edwin Encarnacion:
Edwin Encarnacion may very well end up being the death of me as a fantasy analyst, either he or Brandon Phillips. I’ve been predicting a breakthrough season for Encarncacion for seemingly as long as I’ve been writing about fantasy and each year he’s made me look foolish. So call me a sucker, but I see a .288/.405/.606 line in 66 June AB’s and a fantastic 11:13 BB:K Ratio and I’m thinking “this is it, this is finally IT!” All the peripherals are lining up as Encarnacion is showing not only legitimate, but significant, improvements in his EYE and Power rates. I feel like the boy who cried wolf here, but I really think this is the beginning of a big breakout 2nd half for Encarnacion that puts him on the map as a top 10 3B. He reminds me a little bit of Aramis Ramirez as a player who had always flashed great talent, but had trouble finding consistency day in and day out at the ballpark. It took Ramirez 4 full seasons to figure out consistency, maybe the 2nd half of Encarnacion’s 4th full season is the time for his breakthrough.
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