Hiroki Kuroda:
Is there a bigger role of the dice from night-to-night with a mid-level starter than Hiroki Kuroda? In 23 starts this year Kuroda has notched 7 Disaster Starts in which he’s posted a line of: 0-3, 13.95 ERA, 3.40 WHIP in 20 Innings. In the other 16 starts: 7-5, 2.19 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, in 119 Innings. So the next question comes: How the heck do we know which guy we’re getting from night to night? To put it simply enough, start Kuroda when he’s at home. Four of the Seven Disaster Starts have come on the road and Kuroda’s home ERA on the whole is nearly 1.75 runs lower. A pitcher with this type of inconsistency always leaves you a bit uneasy, but by pitching Kuroda simply at home you maximize your chances of getting the good Kuroda and not the evil one who destroys your Ratio categories.
Brett Myers:
Now THIS is the Brett Myers most of us were looking for at the beginning of the season! I noted how Myers control had returned since coming back from the DL on August 4th, but we hadn’t seen the K numbers get back in line yet. Well over the last two outings, Myers has struck out 14 in 14 2/3 innings, suggesting the Brett Myers of old may finally be back. Even better, Myers has been rolling more ground balls since his return and allowed just 2 HR’s in 32 2/3 innings, compared to 24 HR’s in the first 100 innings of the season. These are big improvements and the kind that signal Myers has returned to form. It’s hard to call him a “safe” option the rest of the way because of the meltdowns earlier in the season and the difficult home park to pitch in, but it appears Myers is back to his old ways and should be relied upon down the stretch. It looks as if it’s only taken 1.5 years for Myers to get back to where he left off when the Phillies made an atrocious decision to move their best starter into a bullpen role.
Chase Headley:
It’s time to start taking Headley seriously. We touched on Headley in this week’s Value Picks column, specifically citing the rapidly increasing EYE and things are only improving. In August, Headley is posting a .88 EYE, posting a 20% BB Rate and dropping his K Rate from over 28% in July to just 22.5% in August. In his last 4 games he’s drawn 6 BB’s without striking out. This is the plate patience we expected from Headley who drew BB’s in 17% of his AB’s in AA and over 15% for his minor league career. Along with the improved plate patience has come the production as Headley extended his hitting streak to 9 games on Thursday in a 2-3 effort. He’s racked up 6 extra base hits in that span and has struck out only 4 times in the last 30 AB’s. This looks like a legitimate breakout and one that owners can still take advantage of as Headley’s owned in less than 20% of ESPN leagues. Get on board the train now.
Ryan Zimmerman:
It’s not really surprising to note but it bears mentioning anyway. Since Ryan Zimmerman has returned from the DL, he’s basically hit for no power. He’s hit just 4 2B’s in his 70 AB’s since coming back from a left shoulder injury that seems to have sapped all of his power. He’s posted a great EYE (1.00) since returning and hit over .300 but the lack of supporting cast around Zimmerman and the lack of power since returning from injury make Zimmerman nothing more than an empty batting average contributor for 2008. His draft value should be severely depressed next year, which will make for significant value but for 2008 it looks like we might have a lost season for the young 3B.
Eugenio Velez:
With Emmanuel Burriss unable to seize control of the 2B job in San Francisco it looks like Eugenio Velez may be getting another opportunity. Velez got the start yesterday and went 2-4 and scored 2 runs. Velez is the better prospect of the two but Burriss had been producing at a better clip and thus was given the opportunity with the Durham trade. Now that Burriss has cooled Velez will get his shot. Velez is basically a better version of Burriss with a tad less efficiency in the SB department and a lot more power. Velez can actually hit the ball with authority into the gaps, as evidenced by his .450 career minor league Slugging % and .509 Slugging % at AAA earlier this year. Velez’s true contributions will come in the SB category, as he stole 118 bases over the last two years in the minor leagues, but like Burriss he’ll need to get on-base more consistently to utilize the speed.
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