Chris Volstad – Don’t get too excited about Volstad shutting down the Phils over 6 innings yesterday. He only struck out 3, and meanwhile, he yielded 4 walks. On the season, the rookie has posted a K/BB ratio of 1.60 as a result of walking 4+ batters per 9 innings. Also disturbing is that Volstad’s K/9 are better in the majors than they were in the minors, making it unlikely he could keep up his current K rate, which would do further damage to his K/BB ratio. Furthermore, Volstad’s HR/FB% is an extremely low 3.7%, whereas most pitchers HR/FB% are around 10%; that is not likely to continue. So, do not be fooled by Volstad’s 3 -2 start and 2.67 ERA.
Casey Kotchman – Kotchman has surprisingly struggled transitioning from LA to Atlanta, even though he is moving to an inferior league. Since he was traded, Kotchman is hitting .152/.237/.242 with 0 HR and 0 multi-hit games. A first thought might be that he is pressing, trying too hard to help out his new team, but a 91% contact rate over that same period dispels that notion. Rather, it is Kotchman’s unlucky singles average that is at the root of his struggles. It is just .107 since joining the Braves, a terribly unlucky number. So, we can expect Kotchman to start racking up hits in the near future, but his lack of power remains unexplained.
Ubaldo Jimenez – Jimenez had been on an absolute tear before blowing up last night. Since June, Jimenez had managed to lower his ERA from 5.37 to 3.61, picking up 7 wins in the process. Jimenez was able to do this because he is improving as a pitcher. For example, his GB% has improved to 54.9%, allowing him to give up a HR just .49 times per 9 innings, compared to 1.10 and 1.17 times per 9 innings the past 2 seasons respectively. Still, Jimenez will not be able to keep going on hot runs, like he did since June, if he does not improve his control. His career K/BB is a poor 1.64, and even in his hot stretch in which he lowered his ERA almost 2 points, it was only 1.83.
David Wright – David Wright hit a dramatic walk off 2-run homer in the bottom of the 9th inning yesterday. The homer was his 21st of the season. In terms of average, Wright is hitting only .288, and I say only because Wright’s career average is .307. Also, before this season Wright’s average had been on an upwards trend (.293/.306/.311/.325). So, what is going on this season? Well, based off of Wright’s singles average, we can determine that he was a bit luck last season (.296) and is getting a bit unlucky this season (.238). His true average is probably closest to the numbers he posted in 2005 and 2006, since those were the years he had a most normal singles average (.270 and .273). An even closer look shows that Wright’s poor singles average this year is especially unlucky when taking into consideration that he is posting the best EYE of his career (.96). His career EYE is .70. So, next year Wright should hit well above .300, although another .325 season might be a stretch.
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