Hi Folks,
Here's a second swing at a few key technical indicators that are shaping our 2009 pitcher projections. These along with other player notes can be found in the notes section in the player projections software. In no particular order:
Santana, Ervin Has learned to bear down
- better GB/FB splits, 10% increase in Stranded %, XERA was higher than actual
(+).
Volquez, Edinson Deserved 2 less Wins, Runners stranded rate of .77 &
first half numbers were inflated. Hitters walked more in 2nd H
Billingsley, Chad Gets into trouble with location, Expected ERA was .45
higher than actual in '08
Nolasco, Ricky Slight step back in '09 but all of his fundamentals from
'08 were sound (.94 WHIP and 1.02 K/I ratio)
Shields, James Improving GB/FB splits make up for average K/I ratio
(.77). Deserved +2 Wins in '08, team offense on climb.
Lester, Jon Runners Stranded Rate of .76 is a bit lucky for a .72 K/I
pitcher. Step back expected in '09
Gallardo, Yovani Was on his way to a breakout season before knee injury
in '08, a bargain at current ADP levels.
Lincecum, Tim Best Pitcher in Baseball:151 Ks, 1.11 WHIP in 2nd H of '08
Chamberlain, Joba Will become a top 10 pitcher if he can harness his
emotions. Solid GB/FB ratio (61/39) and K ratio (1.10)
Price, David Top prospect in baseball (1.14 WHIP and 1.00 K/I in minors
last season), expect some lumpy games
Kershaw, Clayton 7 QS in last 12 games, needs to minimize his pitch count
to succeed. Lots of upside as former top 5 prospect
Scherzer, Max Pitched well to end the season, high in game pitch counts
are an issue. High ceiling, but expect some bumpy starts
Lowe, Derek Warning at 35, Lowe posted his best WHIP since '02. Splits
away from LA last year .300/.415 SLG allowed
Vazquez, Javier Poor Strand % of .67 in '08 will improve with switch to
NL
Lilly, Ted Solid Middle of the rotation starter. Roto Valued at $29 the
last 2 seasons.
Zambrano, Carlos Fastball and K/I ratio have been on a steady decline
since September of '06.
Oswalt, Roy Huge 2nd half of '08 (.92/2.03 WHIP/ERA). Skill set has been
on declining slope. Over Inflated ADP
Myers, Brett 1.17 WHIP / 3.06 ERA in second half of '08. Bounce back
projected
Bedard, Erik Decent bounce back expected, not '07 but '06 numbers are
quite reasonable.
Greinke, Zack 72% QS ratio in '08, with a 3 to 1 K/BB ratio. Deserved 4
more Wins in '08. The numbers are real and sustainable.
McGowan, Dustin Reportedly healthy coming into camp, we'll keep an eye on
him as he has lots of upside potential
Bush, Dave Bush went off in the 2nd H of '08 with his 1.02/3.43, he's
capable as a #2 pitcher but risky to fail (dropping K rate)
Maine, John XERA was 34 points lower than actual, could rebound nicely if
shoulder is healthy.
Wang, Chien-Ming Wins a lot of games, but average to below average in
many of the other categories.
Rodriguez, Wandy Solid K/BB ratio of 3:1, but very inconsistent from
start to start last year. Bounce back expected.
Verlander, Justin XERA was 81 points less than actual in '08, bounce back
season projected.
Saunders, Joe Lucky Singles% for a pitcher with a low K/I ratio. Strand%
will not be as good in '08. Buyer beware.
Maholm, Paul Solid 2nd half 1.20/3.14 WHIP/ERA, Deserved 5 more Wins in
'08 as well. Under the radar.
Johnson, Josh Posted 1.30/.310 WHIP/ERA in 1st season, came back from TJS
w/ 2 additional MPH on fastball. Breakout potential
Weaver, Jered ERA was <40 points overstated in '08. Struggled with RISP.
Strong peripherals remain: 3 to 1 KK/BB
Sanchez, Jonathan Work in Progress. Has the stuff (+1 K/I) to improve his
unfavorable Strand% (.67) which will improve his ERA.
Pelfrey, Mike 1.14 WHIP and 3.06 2nd half numbers are deflated for a .54
K/I. However he makes up for a lot with his GB/FB %
Danks, John Good control pitcher, strand rate was a little high for a .8
K/I pitcher. A slight dropoff should be expected.
Garza, Matt Once a top prospect, but gets pummeled on the road. Improving
skill set noted.
Jimenez, Ubaldo Solid 2H, 10 Wins 1.30 WHIP/3.34 ERA. Could be a big time
pitcher if he can increase his K/BB spread
Matsuzaka, Daisuke QS% of only 48 in '08, not to mention his deserved Win
total of only 10! Strand% of .8 not sustainable. ERA Rise
Buchholz, Clay What happened to this guy? Insane Minor league numbers
(WHIP under 1.00, 1.10 K/I%) Sleeper in hibernation
Jurrjens, Jair Got touched up in the second half (1.43 WHIP/4.48 ERA),
will have to work up to his first half numbers.
Cueto, Johnny Cuerto is so close to turning the corner and becoming an
elite pitcher. Needs to ball angle to keep hitters honest.
Have a great day!
