Adam Jones:
Stardom might be coming a bit earlier for Adam Jones than most anticipated. Jones went 3-4 with his 3rd HR of the season, his first SB of the season, 2 more runs and 3 more RBI’s. He’s now posted a .348/.429/.621 line through his first 17 games while knocking in 17 Runs and driving in 20. As with any hot players early in the season, Jones numbers are a bit inflated by some good luck (a .383 BABIP specifically), but they are also supported from some genuine improvements. Jones has kept his K Rate at the same level (21% vs. 22% in ’08) while drawing more BB’s early on in the season, raising his BB Rate from a paltry 4.4% to a strong 10.4%. Plate patience generally improves as players age, so Jones coming into his own in the BB department is an early indicator of improvement. In addition while the extra base hit rate (currently over 16%) is inordinately high, Jones posted an elite 13.8% rate at the AAA level in 2007. Jones has the background to be an elite fantasy contributor and the early season success both in the peripherals and the actual numbers suggests Jones may have made the leap to an elite fantasy OF quicker than most expected.
Brandon Inge:
I’m not sure there is a fantasy player out there that is frustrating me more than Brandon Inge right now. As a free-swinging slugger who had eclipsed a .400 Slugging % in just 3 of his 8 major league seasons, Inge wasn’t even on my radar as a potential C option in anything other than AL Only or extremely deep leagues. His all or nothing approach leaves significant batting average downside and the extra games played from playing 3B just meant more opportunities for Brandon Inge’s career .238 batting average to hurt my team. Here we are three weeks into the season and Inge is posting an absurd .323/.432/.694 line that makes him look like Albert Pujols, and I seem to be playing him in multiple leagues every week. Even an angry fantasy analyst needs to be objective so let’s take a deeper look at Inge’s hot start. The 32 year old has continued his upward trend in his BB Rate (7.2%, 8.1%, 10.6% each of the last 3 years), by posting a tremendous 17.8% rate here in 2009. In addition he’s curbed his high K Rates, which has typically sat in the 22-27% range for his career, striking out just 12 times in his first 62 AB’s (19.4%). The combination has given Inge a career best .92 EYE. This seems remarkable for a player whose career average EYE is .36 and his career high in a season before this year was .44. From a peripherals perspective this is an incredible improvement, but is that kind of improvement sustainable? Especially at age 32? Color me skeptical. In addition, Inge’s early season success has been inflated by a HR/FB Rate of 27.5%, which is over two times the league average (approx 13%) and about 3 times his last 2 years average of (9.5%). This level of power output certainly isn’t real (though Inge does have 20 HR potential) and although Inge’s plate discipline has been markedly improved early in 2009, I think this is just a blip on the screen in which Inge’s EYE is being magnified by a small sample size that has encapsulated an extended hot streak. If I had gotten this kind of production out of Inge to date, I would certainly look to sell high, relying on the previous 8 seasons worth of data instead of the latest 62 AB’s. Perhaps a frustrated Geovany Soto or Russell Martin owner is worth contacting?
Torii Hunter:
Back towards the end of spring our own Joe Ribando highlighted Hunter as an under-valued draft day target; and boy are those who took Joe’s advice happy right now. Hunter is some kind of locked in right now as a 3-5 effort on Sunday raised his average to .338 on the young season along with 7 HR’s and 14 RBI’s. Hunter’s hot start is largely spurred on by an incredible extra base hit rate of 20% that is nearly double his 10.8% career rate. The extra base hits are coming largely because of an inflated FB Rate of 65% that Hunter’s currently posting after sitting between 51%-56% in each of the last 5 seasons and the HR’s are driven by a HR/FB Rate that is double his 3 year average (over 28% currently). Nothing has really changed here with Hunter, he stills a 20-20 candidate who will likely finish in the .270-.280 range with 90 Runs and 90 RBI’s. We have a 10 year track record to support this, so if you can move Hunter at above that current value for a struggling OF like BJ Upton or Matt Holliday, feel free to take advantage of this nice sell opportunity.
BJ Upton:
After missing much of spring training and getting a late start to the season which has been slowed by a quad injury, BJ Upton continues to slowly work his way back. Unfortunately for Upton owners, the key word in that sentence is SLOWLY. Upton’s completely out of sync as another 0-4 outing dropped BJ Upton down to .156. Upton’s struggles are evident in his peripherals as well. Upton’s making contact just 62% of the time right now, which is significantly lower than his career averages. Last season Upton made contact in 75% of his AB’s and the year prior was at 68%. Until Upton starts making contact at a more consistent rate he is going to bring significant batting average risk for his fantasy owners. With a strikeout rate approaching 40%, Upton owners in shallow formats can consider reserving him in favor of a hotter option as he continues to work back into form.
Scott Rolen:
With seemingly the entire Toronto lineup hitting right now it’s important to take a step back and identify which players are rebounding and likely to sustain strong production and which are masquerading as elite performers. We’ve discussed Aaron Hill at length (and I tend to think his 2007 season is a realistic expectation), so lets turn our attention to a former fantasy fave Scott Rolen. At age 34, Rolen’s shown a steady decline in his power as he’s battled chronic shoulder problems and seen his slugging % drop from a typical .500+ to the low .400’s. This power outage combined with an extreme tendency towards FB’s (over 65% throughout his career) has also made Rolen susceptible to some downside batting average as balls hit with authority to the gaps are hanging up longer for fielders and balls aren’t clearing the fence as often as they once did. Though Rolen’s started off hot this season with a .319-11-2-8-1 line that’s supported by a terrific 1.00 EYE and 91% contact rate, Rolen’s power continues to be absent. Rolen’s posted just a 6.0% extra base hit rate and .435 slugging % in his first 69 AB’s. His .319 batting average is being inflated by a .305 BHIP% and even though Rolen’s making good contact his batting average won’t be able to stay above .310 without some help in the extra base hit department. With a steadily declining extra base hit rate and slugging %, Rolen appears unlikely to provide the power necessary to be a valuable 3B or enough power to sustain the inflated batting average.
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